• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예산 추정

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Economic Impacts of Invasive Pests under Climate Change: A Case of Lycorma delicatula (기후변화에 따른 미발생 병해충 피해 경제적 영향 분석: Lycorma delicatula의 사례를 중심으로)

  • An, Hyunjin;Cho, Sung Ju;Oh, Saera;Jung, Jae-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.415-422
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    • 2018
  • Lycorma delicatula, known as spotted lanternfly, is a planthopper native to Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, India and South China. This species damages local fruit trees and has spread rapidly in South Korea in recent years. The purpose of this study is to present the methods and estimation results pertaining to the risk of invasive species like Lycorma delicatula. We used a partial budget (PB) method to assess direct income reduction of farm households and a partial equilibrium (PE) model to examine social welfare change from the outbreak of Lycorma delicatula. We also estimated the future economic impacts of Lycorma delicatula under various climate scenarios considering habitat suitability. As climate change progresses, domestic ecosystems are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to pest outbreaks leading to further economic damage. We believe that this study can be a base to evaluate efficiency of the national pest control and quarantine system.

A Methodology for Evaluating the Effects of Transportation Policies Related to Greenhouse Gas Reduction (교통온실가스 감축정책의 효과분석 방법론 연구)

  • LEE, Kyu Jin;YI, Yongju;CHOI, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to establish a methodology for evaluating quantitative effects of transportation GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction-related policies that were implemented based on the reduction goals of transportation GHG and effective implementation plans. This study uses a modal utility function and demand estimation models as well as a GHG emission basic unit estimation model by each transportation mode based on actual traffic and emission data. The results showed that the effects of GHG reduction policies such as electric vary from region to region, and from vehicle to vehicle. It is also confirmed that an eco-drive promotion policy, one of the lowest budget policies, is expected to contribute to high reduction in GHG. In addition, not only automobile emission improvement policies but also the promotion policies of public transportation are expected to highly reduce GHG as confirmed quantitatively in this study. The results of this study are expected to be useful for national and local governments' evaluation of GHG reduction policies to cope with the post 2020.

A Study on Cost Prediction of Highway Operating Risk through a Case Study of Power Failure (정전사고 사례분석을 통한 고속도로 운영 위험비용 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Hoon;Kim, Kyong-Ju;Lim, Won-Seok;Park, Chan-Jin;Chae, Myung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.78-90
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    • 2009
  • Recently, operation of highway is the complex digital Infrastructure based on complicated IT. The application of IT is increasing more and more in digital Infrastructure. Though IT is very convenient, if unpredicted operating risk of highway occurs, widespread damage can be large. When operating risk of highway occurs, road users are out of smoothly-run service because of the operating interruption. This risk causes unpredicted operating management cost and additional maintenance cost. It will excess over the planned operating cost, which may leads to users's unsafety and operator's insolvency because of income loss. Until now, related studies to find out the risk are not sufficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest risk cost items and to estimate the reasonable risk cost by using simulation method in case of occurring the huge power failure at the operating digitalized highway. This study indicates the several plans to hedge against risk cost and the management of highway project. From now on, it will be used as basic data to confirm the soundness of operating system in Digital Infrastructure.

Development of Heterogeneous Damage Cause Estimation Technology for Bridge Decks using Random Forest (랜덤포레스트를 활용한 교량 바닥판의 이종손상 원인 추정 기술 개발)

  • Jung, Hyun-Jin;Park, Ki Tae;Kim, Jae Hwan;Kwon, Tae Ho;Lee, Jong-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2024
  • An investigation into the detailed safety diagnosis report indicates that domestic highway bridges mainly suffer from defects, deterioration, and damage due to physical forces. In particular, deterioration is an inevitable damage that occurs due to various environmental and external factors over time. In particular, bridge deck is very vulnerable to cracks, which occur along with various types of damages such as rebar corrosion and surface delamination. Thus, this study evaluates a correlation between heterogeneous damage and deterioration environment and then identifies the main causes of such heterogeneous damage. After all, a bridge heterogeneous damage prediction model was developed using random forests to determine the top five factors contributing to the occurrence of the heterogeneous damage. The results of the study would serve as a basic data for estimating bridge maintenance and budget.

Development of the Operating Cost Estimation Models to Evaluate the Validity of Urban Railway Investment (도시철도 투자타당성 평가를 위한 운영비용 추정모형 개발)

  • KIM, Dong Kyu;PARK, Shin Hyoung;KIM, Ki Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2016
  • Since inaccurate demand estimation for recent urban rail construction may result in financial burden to cities, precise prediction for operating cost as well as construction costs is necessary to avoid or reduce budget loss of the local or central government. The operating cost is directly related to the public fare and affect a policy to determine the rate system. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop an estimating model for reliable operating cost of urban railway. This study introduces a new model to estimate the operating cost with new variables. It provides a better prediction in accuracy and reliability compared to the existing model, considering the feature of urban railway. For verification of our model, railway operation data from a few cities for the last five years were comprehensively examined to determine variables that affect the operating cost. The operating cost was estimated in a dummy regression model using five independent variables, which were average distance between stations, daily trains distance, total passenger capacity of a train in a train, driving mode(manned/unmanned), and investment type(financial/private).

A Study on Costs of Digital Preservation (디지털 보존의 비용요소에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.22 no.1 s.55
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2005
  • To guarantee the long-term access to digital material, digital preservation needs to be systemized, and detailed investigation on cost elements of digital preservation should be done for the continued support of budget. To meet the needs in this area, this paper categorized the digital preservation cost into direct and indirect cost through deriving common elements used in prior research on this issue. For case analysis, two institutions, representing domestic University Library and National Library of Korea under large-scale digitization currently, are selected to analyze the current status of digital preservation and estimate the preservation cost. The case analysis shows the systematic preservation function should be performed to guarantee the long-term access digital material, even though a basic digital preservation is currently conducted. It was projected that the digital preservation cost for the two libraries, accounting for $11.8\%$ and $8.6\%$ of digitization cost, respectively, should be injected every year. However, the estimated figures are very conservative, because the cost for estimating the preservation function, such as installing digital repository and producing meta data, was excluded in the estimation. This proves that digital preservation is a synthetic activity linked directly and indirectly to various activities from production to access of digital object and an essential costs that should be considered from the beginning stage of digitization project.

Estimation of the Value of Green Cars Permission on Exclusive Bus Lane of Yeongdong Expressway Using a CVM Method (CVM을 이용한 영동고속도로 버스전용차로 내 친환경차 주행 허가에 대한 가치 추정)

  • Kim, Inyoung;Park, Sangmin;Kim, Kyung Hyun;Lee, Hwanpil;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2021
  • The exclusive bus lanes in the Yeongdong Expressway were implemented in the Singal to Yeoju section in 2017, but the capacity of both exclusive bus lanes and general-purpose lanes of the Yeongdong Expressway decreased and the travel time increased, reducing it to the Singal to Deokpyeong section. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of exclusive bus lanes to revitalize public transportation and improve environmental problems. This study calculated the willingness to pay and the social benefits of permission for Green cars to drive on exclusive bus lanes in Yeongdong Expressway. A survey was conducted on two groups of Green car users and Expressway users, and the willingness to pay was estimated using the CVM method. As a result, the average WTP of Green car users were estimated to be 218.7(won/km·person), and that of Expressway users were estimated to be approximately 235.5(won/km·person). The direct benefits were estimated to be approximately 7.9 billion won for Green car users, and 8.5 billion won for Expressway users in 2019. Finally, the value of time saving was estimated to be approximately 8.0 billion won.

A Study on the Integration Check Framework Development of SaaS Adoption for the Cost Estimation (SaaS 도입 시 예산추정을 위한 통합점검프레임워크 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Seong-Jeong;Kim, In-Hwan;Kim, Min-Yong
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.345-377
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    • 2013
  • Government agencies have many difficulties for the information system development and operation. One of the difficulties is a budget estimation. Each government agency suggests individually different estimation for the personnel expenses and IT infrastructure adoption costs in the same field of informatization promotions. The other one is the operation costs are increased exponentially in every year[42, 51]. Those difficulties make government agencies can not help adopting SaaS. In fact, most of IT consulting company and government agencies already recognized a variety of SaaS advantages. The most typical SaaS's advantages are cost reduction, Software rapid development and deployment. However, once government agencies decide to adopt SaaS, they can not avoid many problems and difficulties. There is no information in a detailed item in a budget. In those kinds of situation, there is no choice whether government agencies accept SaaS provider's suggesting adoption costs or not. Thus, we provide a sheet of SaaS adoption cost estimation to government agencies. To know the cost factors, this study uses TCO(Total Cost of Ownership)'s criteria. To give a management point, this study uses Gartner's Application development Life Cycle. In this study, the integration check framework which is SaaS adoption cost estimation makes government agencies possible to establish a adequate budget.

재정(財政)·금융(金融)의 역할정립(役割定立)과 보완성(補完性) 제고방안(提高方案)

  • Hwang, Seong-Hyeon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.97-141
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    • 1995
  • 본고(本稿)는 우리 경제의 개방화(開放化) 자율화(自律化) 추세 속에서 거시경제정책수단(巨視經濟政策手段)으로서의 재정정책(財政政策)의 기능과 역할에 대해 다음의 두가지 방안을 제시하고 있다. 첫째로, 분기별(分期別) 통합재정통계(統合財政統計)를 이용한 실증분석 결과에 기초해서 안정적 경제운영(經濟運營)에 있어서 통합예산관리(統合豫算管理)의 중요성을 강조하였다. 분석결과, 기존의 연간자료를 이용한 분석에서 밝혀진 바와 같이 물가 상승률과 재정적자 변수간에 정(正)의 상관관계가 존재하는 것으로 나타났으며, 총통화 변수와 재정수지(財政收支)를 포함하는 물가상승률의 추정식 결과를 이용해서 단기적인 통화(通貨) 재정변수(財政變數)의 적정조합을 모색해 볼 수 있다. 다른 조건이 일정하다면 연간 총통화 증가율 1%포인트와 재정적자(財政赤字)의 대(對)GNP 비율 1%포인트 증가가 평균적으로 비슷한 정도의 물가압력을 낳는 것으로 나타난다. 둘째로, 효율적인 거시경제운영(巨視經濟運營)을 위해 요구되는 재정의 보다 근본적인 역할재정립 방향에 대해서 논의하였다. 해외자본유입(海外資本流入) 등에 대비하기 위해서는 신축적인 통화관리여건이 조성되어야 하고, 이를 위해서는 한은대출에 의한 정책금융 지원분의 재정이관 문제가 보다 적극적 전향적으로 검토되어야 한다. 총액한도대출대상 정책금융 중 지방중소기업자금의 이관문제가 검토되어야 하며, 상업어음할인, 무역금융, 소재 부품생산자금의 경우 기존의 중소기업지원관련 기금에 대한 출연을 확대해서 단기운전자금의 대출 등을 담당하게 하는 방안을 검토할 필요가 있다. 또한 총액한도대출대상 정책금융이 중소기업에 대한 지원인 점을 감안할 때, 중소기업부문(中小企業部門)에 대한 재정지원체계(財政支援體系)를 금리자유화 일정 등을 감안하여 종합적으로 정비함으로써 총액대출한도의 축소를 유도하는 역할을 재정이 담당해야 할 것이다.

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An Approximation Approach for A Multi-Product Continuous Review Inventory Problem with Budget Constraint (예산의 계약이 있는 다품종 연속적 재고 관리 문제에서 추정을 통한 해법)

  • Lee, Dong-Ju;Yoo, Jae-Wook;Lee, Moon-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.134-139
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    • 2008
  • Most approaches for continuous review inventory problem need tables for loss function and cumulative standard normal distribution. Furthermore, it is time-consuming to calculate order quantity (Q) and reorder point (r) iteratively until required values are converged. The purpose of this paper is to develop a direct method to get the solution without any tables. We used approximation approaches for loss function and cumulative standard normal distribution. The proposed method can get the solution directly without any iterative procedure for Q, r and without any tables. The performance of the proposed approach is tested by using numerical examples. The budget constraint of this paper assumes that purchasing costs are paid at the time an order is arrived. This constraint can be easily replaced by capacity constraint or budget constraint in which' purchasing costs are paid at the time an order is placed.