• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.34-43
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• 2016

Urban development and population increases are continuously progressed in the coastal areas in Korea, thus it is expected that vulnerability towards coastal disasters by sea level rise (SLR) would be accelerated. This study investigated trend of the sea level data using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and the results showed that the increasing trends of annual average sea level at 17 locations were statistically significant. For annual maximum extremes, seven locations exhibited statistically significant trends. In this study, non-stationary frequency analysis for the annual extreme data together with average sea level data as a covariate was performed. Non-stationary frequency analysis results showed that sea level at the coastal areas of Korean Peninsula would be increased from a minimum of 60.33 mm to a maximum of 214.90 mm by 2100.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.173-174
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• 2008

해안 침식이 진행되고 있는 부산 해운대 해수욕장을 중심으로 해수면 상승에 따른 해안선 변화에 대한 분석을 실시하였다. 1947년부터 2008년까지 항공사진을 활용하여 해안선을 추출하였는데 사진촬영시간에 따라 해안선의 위치가 현저히 변화하기 때문에 위치만으로는 비교할 수 없고, 평균적인 해안선 부근의 경사와 촬영시의 조수상태를 고려한 수심별 해빈 면적 산정 공식을 활용하여 해안선 면적을 구하였다. 또한 조위자료를 통하여 40년 동안의 해수면 상승량을 산출하고, 이를 바탕으로 미래의 해안선 후퇴거리를 계산해 보았다. 그 결과 3008년도 해빈 면적은 1947년도와 비교하면 약 29% 면적이 감소하였고, 1992년도에는 일시적으로 해빈 면적이 상승하는데 이는 양빈 사업으로 인한 것으로 이후 다시 감소현상을 보인다. 그리고 조위자료 분석 결과 해수면은 연평균 2.462mm/year의 속도로 상승하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.344-353
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• 2016

The cause of abnormal tidal residuals was examined by analyzing sea levels, sea surface atmospheric pressures, winds at ten tide stations, and current, measured at the coast of the Yellow Sea from the night of November $24^{th}$ to the morning of the $25^{th}$ in 2013, along with weather chart. Additionally, the cross-correlations among the measured data were also examined. The 'abnormal tidal residuals' mentioned in this study refer to differences between maximum and minium tidal residuals. The largest abnormal tidal residual was identified to be a difference of 176 cm occurring over 4 hours and 1 minute at YeongJongDo (YJD) with a maximum tidal residual of 111 cm and minimum of -65 cm. The smallest abnormal tidal residual was 68 cm at MoSeulPo (MSP) during 8 hours 52 minutes. The cause of these abnormal tidal residuals was not a meteo-tsunami generated by an atmospheric pressure jump but wind generated by the pressure patterns. The flow speed due to these abnormal tidal residuals as measured at ten tide stations was not negligible, representing 16 ~ 41 % of the annual average ebb current speed. From the cross correlation among the tidal residuals, winds, and tidal residual currents, we learned the northern flow, due to southerly winds, raised the sea level at Incheon when a low pressure center located on the left side of the Korean Peninsula. After passing the Korean Peninsula, a southern flow due to northerly winds decreased the sea level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.222-232
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• 2022

In this study we investigated the characteristics of long-term tidal constituents based on 30 tidal gauge data along the coasts of Korea and its the effects on total water level (TWL) forecasts. The results show that the solar annual (Sa) and semiannual (Ssa) tides were dominant among long-term tidal constituents, and they are relatively large in western coast of Korea peninsula. To investigate the effect of long-term tidal constituents on TWL forecasts, we produced predicted tides in 2021 with and without long-term tidal constituents. The TWL forecasts with and without long-term tidal constituents are then calculated by adding surge forecasts into predicted tides. Comparing with the TWL without long-term tidal constituents, the results with long-term tidal constituents reveals small bias in summer and relatively large negative bias in winter. It is concluded that the large error found in winter generally caused by double-counting of meteorological factors in predicted tides and surge forecasts. The predicted surge for 2021 based on the harmonic analysis shows seasonality, and it reduces the large negative bias shown in winter when it subtracted from the TWL forecasts with long-term tidal constituents.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.464-473
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• 2016

The air temperatures of the coast and inland are rising due to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions and abnormal climate phenomena caused by global warming, El Nino, La Nina and so on. The sea levels of the Earth are rising by approximately 2.0 mm per year (global average value) due to the thermal expansion of sea water, melting of glaciers and other causes by global warming. On the other hand, when it comes to designing a hydraulic structure or coastal hydraulic structure, the standard of the design water level is decided by analyzing four largeness tide values and a harmonic constant with the observed tidal water level or simulating numerical model. Therefore, the design tidal water level needs to consider an increasing speed of the seawater level, which corresponds to the design frequency. In the present study, the observed tidal water levels targeting 46 tidal stations operated by the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration (KHOA) from the beginning of observations to 2015 per hour were collected. The variation of the monthly and yearly and increasing ratio were performed and divided into 7 seas, such as east and west part of the Southern Sea, south part and middle of the East Sea, south part and middle of the Western Sea, and Jeju Sea. The current study could be used to determine the cause of local seawater rises and reflect the design tidal water level as basic data.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.604-613
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• 2016

The sea level of the Earth is rising approximately 2.0mm per year (global average value) due to thermal expansion of sea water, melting of glaciers and other causes by global warming. However, when it comes to design a river, the standard of design water level is decided by analyzing four largeness tide value and harmonic constant with observed tidal water level. Therefore, it seems the external water level needs to consider an increasing speed of the seawater level which corresponds to a design frequency. In the present study, the hourly observed tidal water level targeting 47 tidal stations operated by Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration (KHOA) from beginning of observation to 2015 per hour has been collected. The variation of monthly and yearly and increasing ratio have been performed divided 4 seas such as the Southern, East, Western, and Jeju Sea. Also, the external water level existing design for rivers nearby a coast was been reviewed. The current study could be used to figure out the cause of local seawater rise and reflect the external water level as basic data.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.451-451
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• 2015

최근 1900년부터 1990년 사이 해수면은 매년 평균 1.2mm 상승했지만 1990년부터는 매년 평균 3mm씩 높아지고 있으며, 이에 1990년부터 현재까지 해수면 수위의 상승속도가 이전 90년 동안 측정된 수치보다 2.5배 빠르다는 연구결과가 발표되었다. 해수면 상승으로 인한 피해는 범람과 침식을 야기할 수 있으며 해일 및 폭풍으로 인한 피해를 증가시킴으로 물질적 피해와 인명 피해를 유발할 수 있다. 이러한 이유로 해수면 상승에 따른 과학적인 분석과 신뢰성 있는 전망을 통하여 해수면 상승에 따른 대응과 대비가 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 비정상성 빈도해석 방법을 통하여 미래의 해수면 상승을 고려할 수 있는 비정상성 빈도해석 기법을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서는 극치사상을 추출하기 위해 국립해양조사원 (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration, KHOA)에서 관리한 45개 조위관측소의 시 조위 자료를 이용하였다. 45개 조위관측소의 한 시간 단위 자료로부터 연최대 및 연평균 조위계열 (annual average and annual maximum sea level series)을 추출하였다. 본 연구에서는 한반도 해안을 동해안, 서해안, 남해안, 제주 권역으로 구분하고 빈도 해석의 신뢰성을 만족하기 위해 자료 구축기간이 20년 이상이며, 각 해안을 나타낼 수 있는 지점을 선정하였다. 비정상성 빈도해석은 Gumbel 극치분포를 적용하였으며, 계층적 Bayesian 기법을 결합하여 매개변수들에 대한 사후분포를 추정하였다. 본 연구에서는 대부분의 지점에서 비정상성 빈도해석 결과와 정상성 빈도해석 결과와 상당한 차이를 보여주고 있으며, 이는 주로 정상성 가정에 기인하는 문제점으로 판단된다. 향후 기후변화에 따른 연안지역의 홍수 및 사회기반시설의 위험도를 평가하기 위해서는 비정상성을 고려한 빈도해석 절차의 수립과 적용이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.94-104
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• 2015

Population and urban development along the coast is growing in South Korea, and particularly sea level rise is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal areas. This study aims to investigate the sea level rise through Mann-Kendall(MK) test, ordinary linear regression(OR) and quantile regression analysis(QRA) with sea level data at the 20 tide stations along the coast of Korean Peninsula. First, statistically significant long-term trends were analysed using a non-parametric MK test and the test indicated statistically significant trends for 18 and 10 stations at the 5% significance level in the annual mean value of sea level and the annual maximum value of sea level, respectively. The QRA method showed better performance in terms of characterizing the degree of trend. QRA showed that an average annual rise in mean sea level is about 1-6 mm/year, and an average rise in maximum sea level is about 1-20 mm. It was found that upward convergent and upward divergent were a representative change given the nine-category distributional changes. We expect that in future work we will address nonstationarities with respect to sea level that were identified above, and develop a nonstationary frequency analysis with climate change scenarios.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.361-373
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• 2010

Analysis has been made on the tide/storm surges characteristics near the Korean marginal seas in the 2008 and 2009 years using operational ocean prediction model of the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In order to evaluate its performance, its results were compared with the observed data by tidal stations around Korean Peninsula. The model used in this study predicts very well the characteristics of tide/storm surges near the Korean Peninsula. Simulated storm surges show the evident effects of Typhoons in summer season. The averaged root mean square error(RMSE) of 48 hr forecasting between the modeled and observed storm surges are 0.272 and 0.420 m in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Due to strong sea winds, the highest storm surges heights was found in summer season of 2008, however, in 2009, the high storm surges heights was also found in other seasons. When Typhoon Kalmaegi(2008) and Morokot(2009) approached to Korean Peninsular, the accuracy of model predictions is almost same as annual mean value but the precision accuracy for Typhoon Morakot is lower than of Typhoon Kalmaegi similar to annual results.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.120-130
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• 2014

Change of mean sea level in the western coast of Korean peninsula was estimated with the observed tide data of the KHOA. The cause of the change was investigated. Mean sea levels in the western coast have been changed due to coastal development projects in the coastal zone. The estimated variations, which are significantly different regionally, vary from -6.8 cm in Incheon to 38 cm in Gunsan. The changing rate of mean sea level occurred by natural factors such as global warming varies from 1.1 mm/year in the north to 4.4 mm/year in the south of western coast of Korean peninsula. In Jeju, sea level rise and rise of sea temperature showed a close relationship. Water temperature rise of one degree increases mean sea level to 0.6 mm in Jeju. Rising rate of mean sea level has increased rapidly after the mid-1980s.