• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.169-205
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• 2021

This study quantitatively analyzes the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies on the global economy. To this end, we develop a multi-national and multi-industry static computational general equilibrium model that includes three components-GHG emissions from production, disutility due to GHG emissions, and governments' GHG emissions reduction policies. Then we calibrate the model with the relevant data and solve for the equlibrium using the most recent methodology (exact hat algebra). We find that the strengthening of unilateral GHG emissions reduction policies for each country reduces carbon emissions from domestic producers, but does not necessarily reduce global carbon emissions as production is relocated to other countries. On the other hand, we can reduce GHG emissions when all major countries simultaneously implement the strengthened reduction policies proposed by the OECD (2016). Our results imply that aligned reduction efforts of major countries are necessary to reduce global GHG emissions.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.269-297
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• 2021

Bioplastics are attracting attention as a substitute for conventional petroleum-based plastics because they are carbon neutral and can be biodegradable. This study estimated economic and environmental impact of regulating the petroleum-based plastics industry and fostering the bioplastics industry using a Recursive Dynamic CGE Model of the Korean Economy. Results show that the regulation of the conventional plastics industry exhibits a positive environmental impact by reducing greenhouse gases and plastic waste and a negative economic impact with a decrease in GDP. Meanwhile, fostering the bioplastics industry with regulation on conventional plastics industry has similar levels of greenhouse gas and waste reduction effects when there is only regulation on the conventional plastics industry. It is also shown that expanding the production of bioplastics industry offsets existing economic losses as a form of increased GDP. If petroleum-based plastics are replaced through the expansion of bioplastics production, it can contribute to the decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions and plastic waste from economic growth.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.3-92
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• 1994

경제정책(經濟政策) 변화(變化)의 효과(效果)를 실증분석(實證分析)할 때, 거시경제(巨視經濟) 변동(變動)에 관심이 있는 경우 거시계량모형(巨視計量模型)을 활용하고, 상대가격구조(相對價格構造) 변동(變動)에 대한 소비자(消費者) 및 생산자(生産者)의 반응에 관심이 있는 경우 일반균형연산모형(一般均衡演算模型)을 사용한다. 그런데 대체로 정책변수(政策變數)는 경제구조(經濟構造)(미시적(微視的) 효과(效果))와 경기순환(景氣循環)(거시적(巨視的) 효과(效果))에 동시적 영향을 주기 때문에, 위의 두 모형(模型) 중 어느 하나만으로는 미시행태와 거시현상을 연계 분석하거 어렵다. 본고(本稿)에서는 정책변수(政策變數)의 변화(變化)가 경제주체(經濟主體)의 개별적 최적화(最適化) 행태(行態)와 집합적(集合的) 행태(行態)에 미치는 영향을 동시에 파악하기 위해 이 두 모형(模型)을 결합한 미시(微視)-거시통합모형(巨視統合模型)을 개발하였다. 통합모형(統合模型)의 결과에 의하면, 일반균형모형(一般均衡模型)에 편입(編入)된 거시계량모형(巨視計量模型)과 동태화(動態化)된 일반균형연산모형(一般均衡演算模型)을 결합하여 단기(短期) 경기순환(景氣循環) 및 중장기(中長期)에 걸친 구조조정(構造調整) 문제(問題)를 동시에 분석 가능한 실증분석(實證分析) 도구(道具)를 개발할 수 있었다. 설제로 본고(本稿)에서는 정책대안효과(政策代案效果)의 정량적(定量的) 평가(評價)를 위하여 통합모형(統合模型)을 가상적인 석탄가격(石炭價格) 자율화(自律化)와 보조금(補助金) 지원제도(支援制度) 변화(變化)의 효과분석에 활용하여 보았다. 이러한 모의실험(模擬實驗)은 다른 정책효과분석(政策效果分析)에도 활용(活用)될 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.106-106
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• 2011

소수력은 온실가스 배출량이 적은 친환경 청정에너지원이면서 지역의 분산전원에 기여할 수 있는 유용한 자원으로 평가되고 있다. 이러한 여건은 소수력발전 사업이 전력의 smart grid 구축 효과로 인해 가장 큰 효율성을 달성할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 국내 소수력발전은 1500Mw의 부존량을 가진 것으로 평가되고 있으나 계절적 편중으로 인한 가동률 부족, 경제성 부족 등으로 활발한 보급이 이루어지지 않고 있다. 특히 신재생에너지 확대 전략에도 불구하고 지원금 등 경제적 인센티브 부족으로 인해 민간부문의 참여는 상당히 저조하다. 그럼에도 불구하고 수력에너지는 환경친화적이고 잠재성이 큰 신재생에너지로 온실가스 저감과 에너지 확보에 기여할 수 있다. 특히 수력에너지는 민간투자의 어려움이 존재하므로 정부의 장기적인 기술개발투자 및 효율성 확대 정책이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 소수력 확대의 경제 환경적 효과를 평가해보기 위해 연산일반균형모형 (CGE :Computable General Equilibrium Model)을 구축한다. 본 연구는 다음과 같이 수행되었다. 첫째, 수력발전부문과 수도사업을 구분하고 사회회계행렬을 작성하였으며, 전력부문에서 수력발전을 포함한 다단계 생산구조를 가정하였다. 둘째, 일반균형모형 방정식 체계를 작성하고 모형의 파라미터 추정 등 보정(Calibration) 작업을 수행하였다. 셋째, 국가 중기 온실가스저감 시나리오를 적용한 전망을 수행하고 소수력 확대(투자지원) 시나리오를 구축한다. 본 연구는 저감수단으로 탄소세를 부과하였다. 끝으로, 소수력 발전 보급 확대의 경제적, 환경적 파급효과를 계산하였다. 분석결과, 소수력 발전 잠재 성장을 반영한 수력에너지 비중은 약 2020년에 약 4.5% 까지 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이로 인한 온실가스 저감 기여분은 약 3%에 이르는 것으로 계산 되었다. 또한 수도사업과 비에너지 제조업의 산업비중은 증가하였다. 이러한 결과는 소수력 발전 확대가 화석연료 대체를 통한 지속가능한 에너지 수요에 기여하고 지역개발과 물산업 발전 등 경제적 파급효과 등을 유발할 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 본 연구에서 고려하지 못한 소수력 기술 개발은 에너지 대체 촉진으로 인한 온실가스 저감과 녹색성장에 기여할 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.851-891
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• 2012

The objective of this study can be presented as follows: First, given the consumption-based carbon accounting method which has now been claimed, this study reviews the emissions within Korea and the resulting position change in international society. Second, when each nation makes efforts to reduce carbon emissions under the Copenhagen Accord, this study, using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, reviews the resulting carbon leakage and analyzes the effect from the various border adjustment measures. However, reflecting uncertainties in the negotiation processes, this study attempts to apply scenarios with regards to the reduction-mandatory nation group. In addition, this study tries to observe the impact on Korea through testing the various border adjustment measures, including the free allocation and embodied carbon tariffs.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.509-546
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• 2010

Although coal has been utilized as major fuel, it is known as 'most climate unfriendly' fuel. Carbon tax or tradable permit policy has been discussed as major measure for reducing production and consumption of coal, but it might be more efficient to remove subsidy on coal production and consumption. This study examines economic and environmental effects of recycling revenue from reducing subsidy on the use of coal to foster climate friendly fuel (ligneous biomass) by price subsidy or increased public expenditure. A static CGE model was applied to analyze the welfare consequences and economic impacts of two policy measures. The result shows that price subsidy policy is more desirable than creation of public demand in terms of welfare as well as overall economic impacts.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.245-269
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• 1999

향후 기후변화협약과 같은 환경규제의 강화가 예견되는 상황에서 에너지산업은 상당한 정책변화를 겪게 될 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 정책수립과 결정과정에서 본 연구는 천연가스산업에 대한 정책변화 효과를 분석할 수 있는 일반균형 분석모형을 제시함으로써 천연가스산업에 관한 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 소국경제를 가정한 연산가능 일반균형모형(CGE)을 통해 분석된 천연가스산업의 거시경제적 파급효과를 살펴보면 다음과 같다. 먼저, 천연가스 가격이 5% 상승하였을 경우에는 실질GDP가 0.031% 감소하고, 생산자 물가지수는 0.051% 상승하였다. 가계수요가 10% 증가한 경우와 투자가 10% 증가한 경우에는 실질 GDP가 각각 0.002%씩 상승하고 생산자 물가지수는 0.008%와 0.004% 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 천연가스산업이 비교적 거시경제에 미치는 영향이 적은 것을 보여 주고 있다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.245-274
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• 2003

This paper analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of domestic policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by focusing on carbon tax, domestic emissions trading and the mixture of these policies. By utilizing a dynamic CGE model, KORTEM, this study shows that the economic cost under carbon tax is projected to be higher than that under emission trading. It is because under carbon tax scheme each emitter in economy must meet its emission target regardless of the abatement cost. On the other hand, emission trading allows emitters to reduce the marginal cost of abatement through trading of emission permits. In designing policy portfolio to address the climate change problem in Korea, therefore, this paper proposes the introduction of domestic emission trading scheme as the main domestic policy Instrument.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.175-210
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• 2012

As London and post-Koyto protocols presumably affect emission of organic waste in Korea in 2012, appropriate treatment of organic waste becomes very important. Organic wastes are regarded as non-point pollutants. It has been criticized that direct emission charges on the emission of non-point pollutants are not effective due to the high uncertainty in the relationship between pollution sources and pollution levels. This study suggests indirect emission charges on production of livestocks or consumption on foods. Furthermore, it is assumed that revenue from the emission charges will be recycled to support biogas production. Biogas can be fueled to produce energy. In order to evaluate potential economic and environmental impacts of recycling the indirect emission charges on organic wastes, a static CGE model was developed. Simulation results of emission charges on the production of livestock show that livestock, agriculture, and food industry will confront relatively high burden while emission charges on consumption of food will affect more broadly and consumers will suffer more. Production charge on livestock sector will lead to higher reduction in GDP and total expenditure relative to the consumption charge. GHGs reduction effect was higher for the consumption charge relative to the production charge. Synthetically, consumption charge on food sector is more desirable as an alternative charge for the emission of organic wastes.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.809-850
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• 2012

A linkage of emissions trading schemes among Korea, China and Japan demonstrates overall increase in gross domestic product (GDP). However, it also demonstrates reductions in household consumption, and the impact of integration could be very unbalanced between the countries. In particular, the reductions in domestic marginal costs are high in both Korea and Japan. Therefore, household consumptions in the two countries decrease despite increases in GDP because Korea and Japan will be purchasers of emissions rights. China, on the other hand, will experience the opposite. The unbalanced impacts on real household consumptions are intensified when emission credits are allocated via paid auctions instead of free allocation. This was demonstrated to be the case because the circumstances of three countries are intensified when using a paid emissions credit allocation scheme, and their differences could potentially hinder the cooperation between the three countries. Under the free allocation scheme, the emission trading schemes' unbalanced impacts on consumption could be mitigated, but unavoidable negative impacts of free allocation schemes are also serious. Based on the analysis results, Korea, China, and Japan will individually face complicated impacts if their carbon markets are integrated. Although the GDP of three countries will increase as a result of carbon market integration, the benefits of integration will surely be unbalanced, and the three countries will experience negative impacts in terms of actual consumption or employment. In particular, increases in income and consumption, reductions in employment, and energy dependence by credit purchasers (Japan and Korea) and production reduction and possibility of offshoring faced by revenue producing countries (China) could serve as a barrier to carbon market integration. To maximize the positive influences of carbon market integration while reducing the risks of negative side effects, the development and application of complimentary policy tools, such as import duties or discounts for emissions credits, are required.