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An Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Switching Intention from Online Shopping to Webrooming (온라인 쇼핑에서 웹루밍으로의 쇼핑전환 의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Hyun-Seung;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the proliferation of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet personal computers and the development of information communication technologies (ICT) have led to a big trend of a shift from single-channel shopping to multi-channel shopping. With the emergence of a "smart" group of consumers who want to shop in more reasonable and convenient ways, the boundaries apparently dividing online and offline shopping have collapsed and blurred more than ever before. Thus, there is now fierce competition between online and offline channels. Ever since the emergence of online shopping, a major type of multi-channel shopping has been "showrooming," where consumers visit offline stores to examine products before buying them online. However, because of the growing use of smart devices and the counterattack of offline retailers represented by omni-channel marketing strategies, one of the latest huge trends of shopping is "webrooming," where consumers visit online stores to examine products before buying them offline. This has become a threat to online retailers. In this situation, although it is very important to examine the influencing factors for switching from online shopping to webrooming, most prior studies have mainly focused on a single- or multi-channel shopping pattern. Therefore, this study thoroughly investigated the influencing factors on customers switching from online shopping to webrooming in terms of both the "search" and "purchase" processes through the application of a push-pull-mooring (PPM) framework. In order to test the research model, 280 individual samples were gathered from undergraduate and graduate students who had actual experience with webrooming. The results of the structural equation model (SEM) test revealed that the "pull" effect is strongest on the webrooming intention rather than the "push" or "mooring" effects. This proves a significant relationship between "attractiveness of webrooming" and "webrooming intention." In addition, the results showed that both the "perceived risk of online search" and "perceived risk of online purchase" significantly affect "distrust of online shopping." Similarly, both "perceived benefit of multi-channel search" and "perceived benefit of offline purchase" were found to have significant effects on "attractiveness of webrooming" were also found. Furthermore, the results indicated that "online purchase habit" is the only influencing factor that leads to "online shopping lock-in." The theoretical implications of the study are as follows. First, by examining the multi-channel shopping phenomenon from the perspective of "shopping switching" from online shopping to webrooming, this study complements the limits of the "channel switching" perspective, represented by multi-channel freeriding studies that merely focused on customers' channel switching behaviors from one to another. While extant studies with a channel switching perspective have focused on only one type of multi-channel shopping, where consumers just move from one particular channel to different channels, a study with a shopping switching perspective has the advantage of comprehensively investigating how consumers choose and navigate among diverse types of single- or multi-channel shopping alternatives. In this study, only limited shopping switching behavior from online shopping to webrooming was examined; however, the results should explain various phenomena in a more comprehensive manner from the perspective of shopping switching. Second, this study extends the scope of application of the push-pull-mooring framework, which is quite commonly used in marketing research to explain consumers' product switching behaviors. Through the application of this framework, it is hoped that more diverse shopping switching behaviors can be examined in future research. This study can serve a stepping stone for future studies. One of the most important practical implications of the study is that it may help single- and multi-channel retailers develop more specific customer strategies by revealing the influencing factors of webrooming intention from online shopping. For example, online single-channel retailers can ease the distrust of online shopping to prevent consumers from churning by reducing the perceived risk in terms of online search and purchase. On the other hand, offline retailers can develop specific strategies to increase the attractiveness of webrooming by letting customers perceive the benefits of multi-channel search or offline purchase. Although this study focused only on customers switching from online shopping to webrooming, the results can be expanded to various types of shopping switching behaviors embedded in single- and multi-channel shopping environments, such as showrooming and mobile shopping.

Rapid Rural-Urban Migration and the Rural Economy in Korea (한국(韓國)의 급격(急激)한 이촌향도형(離村向都型) 인구이동(人口移動)과 농촌경제(農村經濟))

  • Lee, Bun-song
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 1990
  • Two opposing views prevail regarding the economic impact of rural out-migration on the rural areas of origin. The optimistic neoclassical view argues that rapid rural out-migration is not detrimental to the income and welfare of the rural areas of origin, whereas Lipton (1980) argues the opposite. We developed our own alternative model for rural to urban migration, appropriate for rapidly developing economies such as Korea's. This model, which adopts international trade theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease to rural to urban migration issues, argues that rural to urban migration is caused mainly by two factors: first, the unprofitability of farming, and second, the decrease in demand for rural nontraded goods and the increase in demand for urban nontraded goods. The unprofitability of farming is caused by the increase in rural wages, which is induced by increasing urban wages in booming urban manufacturing sectors, and by the fact that the cost increases in farming cannot be shifted to consumers, because farm prices are fixed worldwide and because the income demand elasticity for farm products is very low. The demand for nontraded goods decreases in rural and increases in urban areas because population density and income in urban areas increase sharply, while those in rural areas decrease sharply, due to rapid rural to urban migration. Given that the market structure for nontraded goods-namely, service sectors including educational and health facilities-is mostly in monopolistically competitive, and that the demand for nontraded goods comes only from local sources, the urban service sector enjoys economies of scale, and can thus offer services at cheaper prices and in greater variety, whereas the rural service sector cannot enjoy the advantages offered by scale economies. Our view concerning the economic impact of rural to urban migration on rural areas of origin agrees with Lipton's pessimistic view that rural out-migration is detrimental to the income and welfare of rural areas. However, our reasons for the reduction of rural income are different from those in Lipton's model. Lipton argued that rural income and welfare deteriorate mainly because of a shortage of human capital, younger workers and talent resulting from selective rural out-migration. Instead, we believe that rural income declines, first, because a rapid rural-urban migration creates a further shortage of farm labor supplies and increases rural wages, and thus reduces further the profitability of farming and, second, because a rapid rural-urban migration causes a further decline of the rural service sectors. Empirical tests of our major hypotheses using Korean census data from 1966, 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985 support our own model much more than the neoclassical or Lipton's models. A kun (county) with a large out-migration had a smaller proportion of younger working aged people in the population, and a smaller proportion of highly educated workers. But the productivity of farm workers, measured in terms of fall crops (rice) purchased by the government per farmer or per hectare of irrigated land, did not decline despite the loss of these youths and of human capital. The kun having had a large out-migration had a larger proportion of the population in the farm sector and a smaller proportion in the service sector. The kun having had a large out-migration also had a lower income measured in terms of the proportion of households receiving welfare payments or the amount of provincial taxes paid per household. The lower incomes of these kuns might explain why the kuns that experienced a large out-migration had difficulty in mechanizing farming. Our policy suggestions based on the tests of the currently prevailing hypotheses are as follows: 1) The main cause of farming difficulties is not a lack of human capital, but the in­crease in production costs due to rural wage increases combined with depressed farm output prices. Therefore, a more effective way of helping farm economies is by increasing farm output prices. However, we are not sure whether an increase in farm output prices is desirable in terms of efficiency. 2) It might be worthwhile to attempt to increase the size of farmland holdings per farm household so that the mechanization of farming can be achieved more easily. 3) A kun with large out-migration suffers a deterioration in income and welfare. Therefore, the government should provide a form of subsidization similar to the adjustment assistance provided for international trade. This assistance should not be related to the level of farm output. Otherwise, there is a possibility that we might encourage farm production which would not be profitable in the absence of subsidies. 4) Government intervention in agricultural research and its dissemination, and large-scale social overhead projects in rural areas, carried out by the Korean government, might be desirable from both efficiency and equity points of view. Government interventions in research are justified because of the problems associated with the appropriation of knowledge, and government actions on large-scale projects are justified because they required collective action.

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The Causes of Conflict and the Effect of Control Mechanisms on Conflict Resolution between Manufacturer and Supplier (제조-공급자간 갈등 원인과 거래조정 방식의 갈등관리 효과)

  • Rhee, Jin Hwa
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2012
  • I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.

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Studies on the Assumption of the Locations and Formational Characteristics in Yigye-gugok, Mt. Bukhansan (북한산 이계구곡(耳溪九曲)의 위치비정과 집경(集景) 특성)

  • Jung, Woo-Jin;Rho, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Hee-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.41-66
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this research is to empirically trace the junctures of Yigye-gugok managed by Gwan-am Hong Gyeong-mo, a grandson of Yigye Hong Yang-ho who originally designed Yigye-gugok, while reviewing the features of the forms and patterns of gugok. The results of the research are as follows. 1. Ui-dong was part of the domain of the capital during the Chosun dynasty, which also is located in the city of Seoul as a matter of administrative zone. Likewisely, Yigye-gugok is taken as a special meaning for it was one and only gugok. Starting with Mangyeong Waterfall as the $1^{st}$ gok, Yigye follows through the $2^{nd}$ gok of Jeokchwibyeong Rock, the $3^{rd}$ gok of Chanunbong Peak, the $4^{th}$ gok of Jinuigang Rock, the $5^{th}$ gok of Okkyeongdae Rock, the $6^{th}$ gok of Wolyeongdam Pond, the $7^{th}$ gok of Tagyeongam Rock, the $8^{th}$ gok of Myeongoktan Stream, and the $9^{th}$ gok of Jaeganjeong Pavilion. Of these, Mangyeong Waterfall, Chanunbong Peak, and Okkyeongdae Rock are distinct for their locations in as much as their features, while estimated locations for Jinuigang Rock, Wolyeongdam Pond, Myeongoktan Stream, and Jaeganjeong Pavilion were discovered. However, Jeokchwibyeong Rock and Tagyeongam Rock demonstrated multiple locations in close resemblance to documentary literatures within secretive proximity, whereas geography, scenery, and sighted objects were considered to evaluate the 1st estimated location. Through these endeavored, it was possible to identify the shipping routes and structures for the total distance of 2.1km running from the $1^{st}$ gok to the $9^{th}$ gok, which nears Gwanam's description of 5ri(里), or approximately 1.96km for gugok. 2. Set towards the end of the $18^{th}$ century, Yigye-gugok originated from a series of work shaping the space of Hong Yang-ho's tomb into a space for the family. Comparing Yigye-gugok to other gugoks, numerous differences are apparent from beyond the rather more general format such as adjoining the $8^{th}$ gok while paving through the lower directions from the upper directions of the water. This gives rises to the interpretation such that Yigye-gugok was positioned to separate the doman of the family from those of the other families in power, thereby taking over Ui-dong. Yet, the aspect of the possession of the space lends itself to the determination that the location positioned at the $8^{th}$ gok above Mangyeongpok Waterfall representing Wooyi-dong was a consequence of the centrifugal space creation efforts. 3. While writings and poetic works were manufactured in such large quantities in Yigye-gugok whose products of setters and managers seemed intended towards gugok-do and letters carved on the rocks among others, there is yet a tremendous lack of visual media in the same respect. 'Yigye-gugok Daejacheop' Specimens of Handwriting offers the traces of Gwanam's attempts to engrave gakja at the food of Yigye-gugok. This research was able to ascertain that 'Yigye-gugok Daejacheop' Specimens of Handwriting was a product of Hong Yang-ho's collections maintained under the auspices of the National Central Museum, which are renowned for Song Shi-yeol's penmanship.

The Effect of Retailer-Self Image Congruence on Retailer Equity and Repatronage Intention (자아이미지 일치성이 소매점자산과 고객의 재이용의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Sang-Lin;Hong, Sung-Tai;Lee, Seong-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.29-62
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    • 2012
  • As distribution environment is changing rapidly and competition is more intensive in the channel of distribution, the importance of retailer image and retailer equity is increasing as a different competitive advantages. Also, consumers are not functionally oriented and that their behavior is significantly affected by the symbols such as retailer image which identify retailer in the market place. That is, consumers do not choose products or retailers for their material utilities but consume the symbolic meaning of those products or retailers as expressed in their self images. The concept of self-image congruence has been utilized by marketers and researchers as an aid in better understanding how consumers identify themselves with the brands they buy and the retailer they patronize. Although self-image congruity theory has been tested across many product categories, the theory has not been tested extensively in the retailing. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the impact of self image congruence between retailer image and self image of consumer on retailer equity such as retailer awareness, retailer association, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty. The purpose of this study is to find out whether retailer-self image congruence can be a new antecedent of retailer equity. In addition, this study tries to examine how four-dimensional retailer equity constructs (retailer awareness, retailer association, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty) affect customers' repatronage intention. For this study, data were gathered by survey and analyzed by structural equation modeling. The sample size in the present study was 254. The reliability of the all seven dimensions was estimated with Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability values and average variance extracted values. We determined whether the measurement model supports the convergent validity and discriminant validity by Exploratory factor analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis. For each pair of constructs, the square root of the average variance extracted values exceeded their correlations, thus supporting the discriminant validity of the constructs. Hypotheses were tested using the AMOS 18.0. As expected, the image congruence hypotheses were supported. The greater the degree of congruence between retailer image and self-image, the more favorable were consumers' retailer evaluations. The all two retailer-self image congruence (actual self-image congruence and ideal self-image congruence) affected customer based retailer equity. This result means that retailer-self image congruence is important cue for customers to estimate retailer equity. In other words, consumers are often more likely to prefer products and retail stores that have images similar to their own self-image. Especially, it appeared that effect for the ideal self-image congruence was consistently larger than the actual self-image congruence on the retailer equity. The results mean that consumers prefer or search for stores that have images compatible with consumer's perception of ideal-self. In addition, this study revealed that customers' estimations toward customer based retailer equity affected the repatronage intention. The results showed that all four dimensions (retailer awareness, retailer association, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty) had positive effect on the repatronage intention. That is, management and investment to improve image congruence between retailer and consumers' self make customers' positive evaluation of retailer equity, and then the positive customer based retailer equity can enhance the repatonage intention. And to conclude, retailer's image management is an important part of successful retailer performance management, and the retailer-self image congruence is an important antecedent of retailer equity. Therefore, it is more important to develop and improve retailer's image similar to consumers' image. Given the pressure to provide increased image congruence, it is not surprising that retailers have made significant investments in enhancing the fit between retailer image and self image of consumer. The enhancing such self-image congruence may allow marketers to target customers who may be influenced by image appeals in advertising.

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Determinants of Consumer Responses to Retail Out-of-Stocks (점포내 품절상황에서 소비자 반응행동유형별 결정요인)

  • Chun, Dal-Young;Choi, Jong-Rae;Joo, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.29-64
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    • 2011
  • Overview of Research: Product availability is one of important competences of store to fulfill consumer needs. If stock-outs which means a product what consumer wants to buy is not available occurs, consumer will face decision-making uncertainty that leads to consumer's negative responses such as consumer dissatisfaction on store. Stockouts was much studied in the field of academia as well as practice in other countries. However, stock-outs has not been researched at all in Marketing and/or Distribution area in Korea. The main objectives of this study are to find out determinants of consumer responses such as Substitute, Delay, and Leave(SDL) when consumer encounters out-of-stock situation and then to examine the effects of these factors on consumer responses. Specifically, this study focuses on situational characteristics(e.g., purchase urgency and surprise), store characteristics (e.g., product assortment and store convenience), and consumer characteristics (e.g., brand loyalty and store loyalty). Then, this study empirically investigates relationships these factors with consumers behaviors such as product substitution, purchase delay, and store switching.

    shows the research model of this study. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, the following ten hypotheses were proposed and verified : ${\bullet}$ H 1 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, purchase urgency will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 2 When out-of-stock situation occurs, surprise will decrease product substitution and purchase delay but will Increase store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 3 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, purchase quantities will increase product substitution and store switching but will decrease purchase delay among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 4 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, pre-purchase plan will decrease product substitution but will increase purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 5 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, product assortment will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 6 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, competitive store price image will increase product substitution and purchase delay but will decrease store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 7 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, store convenience will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 8 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, salesperson services will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 9 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, brand loyalty will decrease product substitution but will increase purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 10 When out-of-stock situation occurs, store loyalty will increase product substitution and purchase delay but will decrease store switching among consumer responses. Analysis: Data were collected from 353 respondents who experienced out-of-stock situations in various store types such as large discount stores, supermarkets, etc. Research model and hypotheses were verified using multinomial logit(MNL) analysis. Results and Implications: is the estimation results of l\1NL model, and
    shows the marginal effects for each determinant to consumer's responses(SDL). Significant statistical results were as follows. Purchase urgency, purchase quantities, pre-purchase plan, product assortment, store price image, brand loyalty, and store loyalty were turned out to be significant determinants to influence consumer alternative behaviors in case of out-of-stock situation. Specifically, first, product substitution behavior was triggered by purchase urgency, surprise, purchase quantities, pre-purchase plan, product assortment, store price image, brand loyalty, and store loyalty. Second, purchase delay behavior was led by purchase urgency, purchase quantities, and brand loyalty. Third, store switching behavior was influenced by purchase urgency, purchase quantities, pre-purchase plan, product assortment, store price image, brand loyalty, and store loyalty. Finally, when out-of-stock situation occurs, store convenience and salesperson service did not have significant effects on consumer alternative responses.

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  • A Conceptual Review of the Transaction Costs within a Distribution Channel (유통경로내의 거래비용에 대한 개념적 고찰)

    • Kwon, Young-Sik;Mun, Jang-Sil
      • Journal of Distribution Science
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      • v.10 no.2
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      • pp.29-41
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      • 2012
    • This paper undertakes a conceptual review of transaction cost to broaden the understanding of the transaction cost analysis (TCA) approach. More than 40 years have passed since Coase's fundamental insight that transaction, coordination, and contracting costs must be considered explicitly in explaining the extent of vertical integration. Coase (1937) forced economists to identify previously neglected constraints on the trading process to foster efficient intrafirm, rather than interfirm, transactions. The transaction cost approach to economic organization study regards transactions as the basic units of analysis and holds that understanding transaction cost economy is central to organizational study. The approach applies to determining efficient boundaries, as between firms and markets, and to internal transaction organization, including employment relations design. TCA, developed principally by Oliver Williamson (1975,1979,1981a) blends institutional economics, organizational theory, and contract law. Further progress in transaction costs research awaits the identification of critical dimensions in which transaction costs differ and an examination of the economizing properties of alternative institutional modes for organizing transactions. The crucial investment distinction is: To what degree are transaction-specific (non-marketable) expenses incurred? Unspecialized items pose few hazards, since buyers can turn toalternative sources, and suppliers can sell output intended for one order to other buyers. Non-marketability problems arise when specific parties' identities have important cost-bearing consequences. Transactions of this kind are labeled idiosyncratic. The summarized results of the review are as follows. First, firms' distribution decisions often prompt examination of the make-or-buy question: Should a marketing activity be performed within the organization by company employees or contracted to an external agent? Second, manufacturers introducing an industrial product to a foreign market face a difficult decision. Should the product be marketed primarily by captive agents (the company sales force and distribution division) or independent intermediaries (outside sales agents and distribution)? Third, the authors develop a theoretical extension to the basic transaction cost model by combining insights from various theories with the TCA approach. Fourth, other such extensions are likely required for the general model to be applied to different channel situations. It is naive to assume the basic model appliesacross markedly different channel contexts without modifications and extensions. Although this study contributes to scholastic research, it is limited by several factors. First, the theoretical perspective of TCA has attracted considerable recent interest in the area of marketing channels. The analysis aims to match the properties of efficient governance structures with the attributes of the transaction. Second, empirical evidence about TCA's basic propositions is sketchy. Apart from Anderson's (1985) study of the vertical integration of the selling function and John's (1984) study of opportunism by franchised dealers, virtually no marketing studies involving the constructs implicated in the analysis have been reported. We hope, therefore, that further research will clarify distinctions between the different aspects of specific assets. Another important line of future research is the integration of efficiency-oriented TCA with organizational approaches that emphasize specific assets' conceptual definition and industry structure. Finally, research of transaction costs, uncertainty, opportunism, and switching costs is critical to future study.

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    Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

    • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.18 no.4
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      • pp.59-77
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      • 2012
    • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

    Smart Store in Smart City: The Development of Smart Trade Area Analysis System Based on Consumer Sentiments (Smart Store in Smart City: 소비자 감성기반 상권분석 시스템 개발)

    • Yoo, In-Jin;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.24 no.1
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      • pp.25-52
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      • 2018
    • This study performs social network analysis based on consumer sentiment related to a location in Seoul using data reflecting consumers' web search activities and emotional evaluations associated with commerce. The study focuses on large commercial districts in Seoul. In addition, to consider their various aspects, social network indexes were combined with the trading area's public data to verify factors affecting the area's sales. According to R square's change, We can see that the model has a little high R square value even though it includes only the district's public data represented by static data. However, the present study confirmed that the R square of the model combined with the network index derived from the social network analysis was even improved much more. A regression analysis of the trading area's public data showed that the five factors of 'number of market district,' 'residential area per person,' 'satisfaction of residential environment,' 'rate of change of trade,' and 'survival rate over 3 years' among twenty two variables. The study confirmed a significant influence on the sales of the trading area. According to the results, 'residential area per person' has the highest standardized beta value. Therefore, 'residential area per person' has the strongest influence on commercial sales. In addition, 'residential area per person,' 'number of market district,' and 'survival rate over 3 years' were found to have positive effects on the sales of all trading area. Thus, as the number of market districts in the trading area increases, residential area per person increases, and as the survival rate over 3 years of each store in the trading area increases, sales increase. On the other hand, 'satisfaction of residential environment' and 'rate of change of trade' were found to have a negative effect on sales. In the case of 'satisfaction of residential environment,' sales increase when the satisfaction level is low. Therefore, as consumer dissatisfaction with the residential environment increases, sales increase. The 'rate of change of trade' shows that sales increase with the decreasing acceleration of transaction frequency. According to the social network analysis, of the 25 regional trading areas in Seoul, Yangcheon-gu has the highest degree of connection. In other words, it has common sentiments with many other trading areas. On the other hand, Nowon-gu and Jungrang-gu have the lowest degree of connection. In other words, they have relatively distinct sentiments from other trading areas. The social network indexes used in the combination model are 'density of ego network,' 'degree centrality,' 'closeness centrality,' 'betweenness centrality,' and 'eigenvector centrality.' The combined model analysis confirmed that the degree centrality and eigenvector centrality of the social network index have a significant influence on sales and the highest influence in the model. 'Degree centrality' has a negative effect on the sales of the districts. This implies that sales decrease when holding various sentiments of other trading area, which conflicts with general social myths. However, this result can be interpreted to mean that if a trading area has low 'degree centrality,' it delivers unique and special sentiments to consumers. The findings of this study can also be interpreted to mean that sales can be increased if the trading area increases consumer recognition by forming a unique sentiment and city atmosphere that distinguish it from other trading areas. On the other hand, 'eigenvector centrality' has the greatest effect on sales in the combined model. In addition, the results confirmed a positive effect on sales. This finding shows that sales increase when a trading area is connected to others with stronger centrality than when it has common sentiments with others. This study can be used as an empirical basis for establishing and implementing a city and trading area strategy plan considering consumers' desired sentiments. In addition, we expect to provide entrepreneurs and potential entrepreneurs entering the trading area with sentiments possessed by those in the trading area and directions into the trading area considering the district-sentiment structure.

    A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

    • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.26 no.1
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      • pp.135-149
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      • 2020
    • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.


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