• 해운
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• s.97
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• pp.11-24
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• 2013

저조한 해운시황과 고유가가 지속되고 이들 변수의 변동성이 커지면서 두 변수가 해운업체의 영업수익성에 미치는 영향도 커지고 있다. 금융위기 이후 급감한 해운 수요는 유럽 재정위기가 겹치며 쉽사리 증가하지 못하고 있는 반면, 호황기에 발주된 선박들이 대거 인도되어 선복량 공급은 꾸준히 증가하면서 선복량 수급 불균형이 시황 회복의 발목을 잡고 있다. 또한, 해운 운임과 유가의 변동성 확대는 해운시황 침체와 함께 불확실성을 증대시켰고, 그에 따라 해운업체 영업실적의 불확실성도 확대되었다. 뿐만 아니라 이들 변수의 움직임에 의해 영업수익성이 좌우되는 모습을 보이고 있다. 이에 해운 운임 및 연료유 가격과 해운업체 영업수익성의 상관관계를 분석적 관점에서 살며보고 이를 바탕으로 2013년 해운업체의 실적에 대해 전망해 보는 동시에 유동성 상황을 점검해 보았다. 다음은 한국기업평가에서 발표한 "해운업계 실적 전망과 유동성 점검"의 주요 내용을 요약 정리한 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.191-196
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• 2015

There have been many studies on statistical forecasting on firm's performance and stock price by applying various financial indicators such as debt ratio and sales growth rate. Selecting predictors for constructing a prediction model among the various financial indicators is very important for precise prediction. Most of the previous studies applied variable selection algorithms for selecting predictors. However, the variable selection algorithm is considered to be at risk of eliminating certain amount of information from the indicators that were excluded from model construction. Therefore, we propose a firm's performance prediction model which principal component analysis is applied instead of the variable selection algorithm, in order to reduce dimensionality of input variables of the prediction model. In this study, we constructed the proposed prediction model by using financial data of American IT companies to empirically analyze prediction performance of the model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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• 2011.08a
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• pp.94-94
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• 2011

본 논문은 "차세대 반도체용 진공공정의 실시간 측정/진단/제어 기술개발"과제의 제 3 세부과제 "스마트형 진공 배기 진단 제어 시스템 개발"의 주요 연구 실적을 소개한다. 본 세부과제는 (1)진공펌프 및 배기 시스템의 다중 상태변수 측정 장치 개발, (2)공정별 펌프 상태 및 공정 조건 data base 구축 및 진단 알고리즘 개발(e-Diagnostics Level 2 FDC 수준), (3)공정별 펌프 상태 변수 측정을 통한 자기 진단 기술 개발(e-Diagnostics Level 2 FDC 수준), 그리고 (4)측정/통신 PMS (Pump Monitoring System) 개발(통신속도 56k bps 이상, e-Diagnostics Level 0~1)을 최종 목표로 추진되어 왔다. 첫 번째 주요실적은 진공배기시스템의 다중 상태변수 측정 및 평가 장치를 성공적으로 개발하였다. 본 장치는 현장에서 진공펌프의 배기속도를 3% 이내로 정밀하게 측정할 수 있는 소닉 노즐을 이용한 배기속도 측정 장치 및 기술을 성공적으로 개발 완료하였다. 그리고 측정 가능한 상태변수는 20종에 달하며 이들을 이용하여 진공펌프의 성능인자 15종과 특성치 9종을 종합적으로 평가할 수 있는 능력을 갖추었다. 두 번째 주요실적은 공정별 진공배기시스템의 자기진단 및 예지보수 기수 개발이다. 연구에서 개발된 적응형 인자모델을 이용한 상태진단 기술은 이미 학회 논문으로 소개되었으며 본 기법은 기존의 시계열 상태변수를 이용한 기존의 상태진단 기법보다 메모리 소요량을 100배로 줄였으며 그리고 연산양은 10% 이하로 줄인 획기적인 기법이라 할 수 있다. 세 번째 주요실적은 상태변수 측정, 통신, 제어 및 공정적응 기능 통합형(smart) PMS(pumper monitoring system) 개발이다. 본 장치는 CAN통신 기법을 새로이 채택하였으며 한 대의 PC로 64대의 단위 진공펌프들의 운전 상태변수를 실시간으로 수집할 수 있도록 하였다. 그리고 운전 중인 개별 진공펌프들의 운전 상태진단은 적응형 인자모델을 이용한 상태진단 기술을 응적용함으로써 매우 정확한 상태진단을 매 batch마다 수행할 수 있는 기능을 제공한다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.58-73
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to construct a predictable estimation model that reflects the relationship between the variables of mobile app performance and to verify how app reviews affect app performance. In study 1 and 2, the relationship between app performance indicators was derived using correlation analysis and random forest regression estimation of machine learning, and app performance estimation modeling was performed. In study 3, sentiment scores for app reviews were by using sentiment analysis of text mining, and it was found that app review sentiment scores have an effect one lag ahead of the number of daily installations of apps when using multivariate time series analysis. By analyzing the dissatisfaction and needs raised by app performance indicators and reviews of apps, companies can improve their apps in a timely manner and derive the timing and direction of marketing promotions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.41-48
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• 2004

We may consider the inducement of demand to public transportation as a solution to relieve traffic congestion and pollution. Subway has merits as moving on schedule, transporting more people than bus. But subway is required a vast investment in the early stage of construction has a huge debt. So it runs into red figures, and on this account, services of subway are falling more and more. Development of subway's operation cost function is useful to understand structure of subway's operation and catch the relations of operation cost and actual results. In addition, we can present the policy that is a helpful to the operation as development of operation cost function. But there are short of studies about operation cost deal with a subway comparison with local train. Because local train has many lines and data, on the other hand, subway has one to four lines and less data. Most of previous studies sought the operation cost function of Seoul. So this study aimed to develop and apply the operation cost function of Seoul, Incheon, Busan and Daegu area using full allocation method. In this study, we considered the number of passengers, track-km, train-km, revenue as actual results. By appling the operation cost function, we compared the average cost of each city and confirmed the existence of economies of scale about the number of passengers, train-km.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 2014

This study examines the performance of the successful small and medium size firms in their early stage. No sign of widespread chasm or the death valley among the sample firm is identified. More than half the sample firms had made reasonable forecast on the uncertainty of their future business before they were incorporated. Overall results of empirical studies carried out in this article allow us to assert that the difficulties experienced in the early stage are mostly manageable within the organization. This implies that the Government support for start-ups in early stage should be discouraged. Empirical investigation across different periods reveals, however, that the Government may have significant roles to play when it comes down to controlling the macroeconomic shocks.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-124
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• 2003

This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.8
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• pp.170-177
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• 2020

The Korean government's R&D budget has risen steadily annually, reaching 24.2 trillion won in 2020, and the ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP ranked high among OECD countries. However, national science and technology innovation ranked low among OECD countries. This study focused on Korean government-funded research institutes in the field of science and technology by analyzing the effects of budget and workforce input on research performance in order to provide directions for management. Multiple regression analysis was conducted with budget and workforce input as independent variables, which influence major research outcomes (SCI paper, patent, royalty). In the research budget, only government contribution had a positive effect on SCI thesis performance, and the increase in the government project and private project funding had a negative effect on the number of patents and technology royalties. For the workforce, the positive effect of regular workers on all research achievements was 3-6 times more than that of non-regular workers. Through this study, policy implications such as establishment of institutional performance indicators according to research types were derived for the outcome driven management of government-funded research institutes in the field of science and technology.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.231-234
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• 2000

본 연구는 오랜 시간에 거쳐 축적된 고객 데이터베이스를 활용하여 스코어링 방법을 적용할 수 있는 모델링의 개발에 목적이 있다. 기존의 전통적인 스코어링 방법은 인구 통계학적인 변수나 거래 관련 횡단면적인 자료를 이용하여 우량고객과 불량고객을 구분하는 판별분석의 형태가 대부분이다. 하지만 과거 고객에 대한 실적 자료가 시계열 형태를 이루며 존재하기 때문에 이에 대한 적절한 동태적 모형을 적용은 자연스러운 확장이라고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 고객들의 실적관련 시계열 자료를 GARCH 모형에 적합하여 미래의 실적 예측과 이에 대한 표준편차를 예측하여 하위 $10\%$에 해당하는 실적 예측치를 스코어링으로 하는 새로운 방법을 소개하고자 한다. 이 경우 스코어 값이 부호를 가지게 되므로 우량고객을 구분함과 동시에 큰 음수 값을 조사하여 위험 평점도 함께 측정할 수 있어서 실무 측면에서 유용하리라고 본다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.