• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오 기법

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Value of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts for Reservoir Operations during the Drawdown Period (이수기 저수지 운영을 위한 앙상블 유량예측의 효용성)

  • Eum, Hyung-Il;Ko, Ick-Hwan;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.3 s.164
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    • pp.187-198
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    • 2006
  • Korea Water Resources Corporation(KOWACO) has developed the Integrated Real-time Water Management System(IRWMS) that calculates monthly optimal ending target storages by using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming(SSDP) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction(ESP) running on the $1^{st}$ day of each month. This system, however, has a shortcoming: it cannot reflect the hydrolmeteorologic variations in the middle of the month. To overcome this drawback, in this study updated ESP forecasts three times each month by using the observed precipitation series from the $1^{st}$ day of the month to the forecast day and the historical precipitation ensemble for the remaining days. The improved accuracy and its effect on the reservoir operations were quantified as a result. SSDP/ESP21 that reflects within-a-month hydrolmeteorologic states saves $1\;X\;10^6\;m^3$ in water shortage on average than SSDP/ESP01. In addition, the simulation result demonstrated that the effect of ESP accuracy on the reduction of water shortage became more important when the total runoff was low during the drawdown period.

The Study of the Influence on Long Term Streamflow Caused by Artificial Storage Facilities Based on SWAT Modeling Process (SWAT모형을 이용한 인공저류시설물의 하류장기유출 영향분석 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hyun-Suk;Kang, Du-Kee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.3 s.164
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    • pp.227-240
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    • 2006
  • In the several decades, various storage facilities have been developed and operated to supply water resource, flood control or environmental preservation etc. Then, how those man-maid storage facilities affect on the downstream water and environment and how the hydrologists can evaluate those features for water resources problem-solving are high-concentrated problems in this field. Most large watersheds in Korea contain various types of artificial facilities such dams, reservoirs, in-land ponds, wetlands etc. But the study to develop the technology for achieving the effect of the variances and properties of the long term streamflow caused by the artificial storage facilities have been on the simple watershed models and experimental modeling in the real fields. In this paper, we introduce the procedure and methods to consider the above problems based on continuous and semi-distributed featured SWAT model. At the first, we describe the elements and mechanisms of storage facilities in SWAT model to see how we can apply that in proper and appropriate manner for real field problems. Then, we applied the process to a sample watershed, Taewha River basin which covers the most of Ulsan region. Specially, we concentrate on our effort to the effect of upper reservoirs on down stream long term flows based on various scenario basis. The result was described and analysed in spacial and temporal variations on that basin using the precise manner.

Supplementation of the Indoor Location Tracking Techniques Based-on Load-Cells Mechanism (로드셀 기반의 실내 위치추적 보완 기법)

  • YI, Nam-Su;Moon, Seung-Jin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2016
  • Current indoor intrusion detection and location tracking methods have the weakness in seamless operations in tracking the objective because the object must possess a communicating device and the limitation of the single cell size (approximate $100cm{\times}100cm$) exits. Also, the utilization of CCTV technologies show the shortcomings in tracking when the object disappear the area where the CCTV is not installed or illumination is not enough for capturing the scene (e.g. where the context-awarded system is not installed or low illumination presents). Therefore, in this paper we present an improved in-door tracking system based on sensor networks. Such system is built on a simulated scenario and enables us to detect and extend the area of surveillance as well as actively responding the emergency situation. Through simulated studies, we have demonstrated that the proposed system is capable of supplementing the shortcomings of signal cutting, and of estimating the location of the moving object. We expect the study will improve the better analysis of the intruder behavior, the more effective prevention and flexible response to various emergency situations.

User-Centered Climate Change Scenarios Technique Development and Application of Korean Peninsula (사용자 중심의 기후변화 시나리오 상세화 기법 개발 및 한반도 적용)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Imgook;Cho, Wonil;Hwang, Syewoon
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.13-29
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    • 2018
  • This study presented evaluation procedure for selecting appropriate GCMs and downscaling method by focusing on the climate extreme indices suitable for climate change adaptation. The procedure includes six stages of processes as follows: 1) exclusion of unsuitable GCM through raw GCM analysis before bias correction; 2) calculation of the climate extreme indices and selection of downscaling method by evaluating reproducibility for the past and distortion rate for the future period; 3) selection of downscaling method based on evaluation of reproducibility of spatial correlation among weather stations; and 4) MME calculation using weight factors and evaluation of uncertainty range depending on number of GCMs. The presented procedure was applied to 60 weather stations where there are observed data for the past 30 year period on Korea Peninsula. First, 22 GCMs were selected through the evaluation of the spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 GCMs. Between Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) and Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM) methods, SQM was selected based on the reproducibility of 27 climate extreme indices for the past and reproducibility evaluation of spatial correlation in precipitation and temperature. Total precipitation (prcptot) and annual 1-day maximum precipitation (rx1day), which is respectively related to water supply and floods, were selected and MME-based future projections were estimated for near-future (2010-2039), the mid-future (2040-2069), and the far-future (2070-2099) based on the weight factors by GCM. The prcptot and rx1day increased as time goes farther from the near-future to the far-future and RCP 8.5 showed a higher rate of increase in both indices compared to RCP 4.5 scenario. It was also found that use of 20 GCM out of 22 explains 80% of the overall variation in all combinations of RCP scenarios and future periods. The result of this study is an example of an application in Korea Peninsula and APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) can be utilized in various areas and fields if users want to apply the proposed procedure directly to a target area.

Establishment and Application of Flood Forecasting System for Waterfront Belt in Nakdong River Basin for the Prediction of Lowland Inundation of River. (하천구역내 저지대 침수예측을 위한 낙동강 친수지구 홍수예측체계 구축 및 적용)

  • Kim, Taehyung;Kwak, Jaewon;Lee, Jonghyun;Kim, Keuksoo;Choi, Kyuhyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.294-294
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    • 2019
  • The system for predicting flood of river at Flood Control Office is made up of a rainfall-runoff model and FLDWAV model. This system is mainly operating to predict the excess of the flood watch or warning level at flood forecast points. As the demand for information of the management and operation of riverside, which is being used as a waterfront area such as parks, camping sites, and bike paths, high-level forecasts of watch and warning at certain points are required as well as production of lowland flood forecast information that is used as a waterfront within the river. In this study, a technology to produce flood forecast information in lowland areas of the river used as a waterfront was developed. Based on the results of the 1D hydraulic analysis, a model for performing spatial operations based on high resolution grid was constructed. A model was constructed for Andong district, and the inundation conditions and level were analyzed through a virtual outflow scenarios of Andong and Imha Dam.

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Simulation-Based Analysis of C System in C3 System of Systems Via Machine-Learning Based Abstraction of C2 System (머신러닝 기반의 C2 시스템 추상화를 통한 C3 복합체계에서의 시뮬레이션 기반 통신 시스템 분석)

  • Kang, Bong Gu;Seo, Kyung Min;Kim, Byeong Soo;Kim, Tag Gon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2018
  • In the defense modeling and simulation, for the detailed analysis of the communication system, many studies have carried out the analysis under the C3 SoS(system of systems) which consists of C2(command and control) and C(communication). However, it requires time and space constraints of the C2 system. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a communication analysis method in the standalone system environment which is combined with the C system after abstracting the C2 system. In the abstraction process, we hypothesize the traffic model and mobility model for C system analysis and learn the parameters in the model based on machine learning. Through the proposed method, it is possible to construct traffic and mobility model with different output according to the battlefield. This case study shows how the process can be applied to the C3 SoS and the enhanced accuracy than the existing method. We expect that it is possible to carry out the efficient communication analysis against many experimental scenarios with various communication parameters.

Model Design and Applicability Analysis of Interactive Electronic Technical Manual for Planning Stage of Construction Projects (건설공사 기획단계 전자매뉴얼의 적용 모형 구성 및 효과 분석)

  • Kwak, Joong-Min;Kang, Leen-Seok
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.121-139
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    • 2021
  • Technical documents in the construction field are changing from paper documents to electronic ones. As a result, the industry witnesses a trend of using portable electronic devices in searching or retrieving necessary information such as relevant regulations. Despite the improvement in the accessibility to general technical documents, a limitation is still found in accessing the electronic documents on the regulations. We see the barrier for field engineers to enhance their technical knowledge. One of major barriers is that videos, animations, and virtual reality information to enhance the visual understanding of technical content related to regulations are not linked. It is the interactive electronic technical manual (IETM) that can address such issues. The IETM is an electronic document system that enables real-time information acquisition while operating in the form of conversations with users by linking multimedia functions to document types such as specifications and guidelines. This study establishes a model of the IETM that can be operated in the planning stage of a construction project. The study also verifies its usability with a hypothetical case study. This study aims to improve the usability of the IETM in the construction project by analyzing the application effect of the IETM using the AHP technique.

Analysis on dam operation effect and development of an function formula and automated model for estimating suitable site (댐의 운영효과 분석과 적지선정 함수식 및 자동화 모형 개발)

  • Choo, Taiho;Kim, Yoonku;Kim, Yeongsik;Yun, Gwanseon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2019
  • Intake ratio from river constitutes about 31% (8/26) that beings to "water stress country" as "Medium ~ High" with China, India, Italy, South Africa, etc. Therefore, the present study on a dam that is the most effective and direct for securing water resources has been performed. First of all, climate change scenarios were investigated and analyzed. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 with 12.5 km grid resolution presented in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) were applied to study watershed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and HEC-ResSim models that carried out co-operation. Based on the results of dam simulation, the reduction effects of floods and droughts were quantitatively presented. The procedures of dam projects of the USA, Japan and Korea were investigated. As a result, there are no estimating quantitative criteria, calculating methods or formulas. In the present study, therefore, indexes for selecting suitable dam site through literature investigation and analyzing dam watersheds were determined, Expert questionnaire for various indexes were performed. Based on the above mentioned investigation and expert questionnaire, a methodology assigning weight using AHP method were proposed. The function of suitable dam (FSDS) site was calibrated and verified for four medium-sized watersheds. Finally, automated model for suitable dam site was developed using FSDS and 'Model builder' of GIS tool.

Development of Incident Detection Algorithm Using Naive Bayes Classification (나이브 베이즈 분류기를 이용한 돌발상황 검지 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kang, Sunggwan;Kwon, Bongkyung;Kwon, Cheolwoo;Park, Sangmin;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.25-39
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to develop an efficient incident detection algorithm by applying machine learning, which is being widely used in the transport sector. As a first step, network of the target site was constructed with micro-simulation model. Secondly, data has been collected under various incident scenarios produced with combination of variables that are expected to affect the incident situation. And, detection results from both McMaster algorithm, a well known incident detection algorithm, and the Naive Bayes algorithm, developed in this study, were compared. As a result of comparison, Naive Bayes algorithm showed less negative effect and better detect rate (DR) than the McMaster algorithm. However, as DR increases, so did false alarm rate (FAR). Also, while McMaster algorithm detected in four cycles, Naive Bayes algorithm determine the situation with just one cycle, which increases DR but also seems to have increased FAR. Consequently it has been identified that the Naive Bayes algorithm has a great potential in traffic incident detection.

Vessel and Navigation Modeling and Simulation based on DEVS Formalism : Design for Navigation Simulation Architecture with Modeling for Critical Systems and Agents of Vessel (DEVS 형식론 기반의 선박 항해 모델링 및 시뮬레이션 (I) : 항해 시뮬레이션 아키텍처 설계와 선박 핵심 장비 및 에이전트 모델링)

  • Woo, Sang-Min;Lee, Jang-Se;Hwang, Hun-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.1038-1048
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    • 2019
  • Recently, various systems have been developed to support ship navigation safety. In order to verify the usefulness of such a system, it is most ideal to try it on a real vessel, but there are many difficulties. As an alternative, usability verification methods applied with modelling and simulation (M&S) techniques are required such as FMSS, which is closest to reality, is very expansive to construct, and there needs the specialized operator. For this reason, this paper proposes a method to verify the navigation safety support system by modeling and simulation techniques based on the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) formalism. As a first step, we designed the navigation simulation architecture based on the SES/MB framework, and details on modelling ship core equipment and navigator agents based on the DEVS. Through this, we are able to implement the navigation simulation system for vessels, and evaluate the effectiveness of navigation safety support elements such as collision avoidance, etc. using developed scenarios.