• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오 기법

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Evaluation of Mobile Emissions Reduction Strategies Using Travel Demand Model and Analytic Hierarchy Process (교통수요모형과 의사결정모형을 이용한 자동차 배출저감정책 평가)

  • Lee, Kyu Jin;Park, Kwan Hwee;Shim, Sang Woo;Choi, Keechoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.1123-1133
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    • 2015
  • This study proposed an evaluation method of mobile emissions reduction strategies for air quality management. The proposed method was considered Travel Demand Model (TDM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while an existing method was focused on quantitative factors. AHP of the evaluation indices of mobile emissions reduction strategies show that quantitative evaluation indices such as air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are more important than the political evaluation indices (Consistency with an upper plan, Policy applicability, Technical applicability and feasibility) and each weight of air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are found to be 0.373 and 0.218. The early scrapping policy of decrepit diesel vehicle is the best policy in the proposal method using TDM and AHP but this result differs from evaluated result by TDM or AHP respectively. These results are limited to the basic assumption and range of reduction scenarios but are expected to contribute to establish more reasonable and effective mobile emission reduction strategies.

Effects of evacuation delay time and fire growth curve on quantitative risk for railway tunnel fire (철도터널 화재 시 피난개시시간지연 및 화재성장곡선이 정량적 위험도에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Hyo-Gyu;Lee, Hoo-Young
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.809-822
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    • 2018
  • A quantitative risk assessment has been introduced to quantitatively evaluate fire risk as a means of performance based fire protection design in the design of railway tunnel disaster prevention facilities. However, there are insufficient studies to examine the effect of various risk factors on the risk. Therefore, in this study, the risk assessment was conducted on the model tunnel in order to examine the effects of the evacuation start time delay and the fire growth curve on the quantitative risk assessment. As a result of the analysis of the scenario, the fatalities occurred mainly when escapes in the same direction as the direction of the fire smoke movement. In addition, after the FED exceeded 0.3, the maximum fatalities occurred within 10 minutes. In the range of relatively low risk, distance between cross passages, evacuation delay time and fire growth curve were found to affect the risk, but they were found to have little effect on the condition that the risk reached the limit. Especially, in this study, it was evaluated that the evacuation delay time reduction, fire intensity and duration reduction effect were not observed when the distance between cross passages was more than 1500 m.

Development of Water Hammer Simulation Model for Safety Assessment of Hydroelectric Power Plant (수력발전설비의 안전도 평가를 위한 수충격 해석 모형 개발)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae-Young;Jung, Woo-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.760-767
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    • 2020
  • Sustainable growth of hydroelectric power plants is expected in consideration of climate change and energy security. However, hydroelectric power plants always have a risk of water hammer damage, and safety assurance is very important. The water hammer phenomenon commonly occurs during operations such as rapid opening and closing of the valves and pump/turbine shutdown in pipe systems, which is more common in cases of emergency shutdown. In this study, a computational numerical model was developed using the MOC-FDM scheme to reflect the mechanism of water hammer occurrence. The proposed model was implemented in boundary conditions such as reservoir, pipeline, valve, and pump/turbine conditions and then applied to simulate hypothetical case studies. The analysis results of the model were verified using the analysis results at the main points of the pipe systems. The model produced reasonably good performance and was validated by comparison with the results of the SIMSEN package model. The model could be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydroelectric power plants based on accurate prediction of transient behavior in the operation of hydropower facilities.

A Comparative Study on Evacuation Behavior Characteristics of Trainees according to Experience Level on board a Training Ship (운항실습선 교육생의 승선 숙련도에 따른 피난행동특성 비교분석)

  • Hwang, Kwang-Il;Lee, Yun-Sok
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.233-238
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    • 2014
  • With the increasing needs on various leisure activities, the users of passenger ships and cruisers have been increased year by year. Although over 15 accidents per year betide on domestic passenger ships for last decade, the researches on the safety of crews and guests on boards are difficult to find. This study performed the comparative analysis by experiments on the evacuation characteristics between experience levels on board a training ship. The followings are the results. From the seniors' experiments, it is found that more various evacuation scenarios have to develope and drill as a part of education contents. And from the freshmen's trials, the importances of the evacuation education and the roles of existing crews on evacuation guides are pointed out as to increase the safety of new crews and/or guests who are not accustomed to onboard a ship. On the other, it is explained that the communications between evacuees are worthy and useful, and also save more evacuation times. And on the viewpoint of evacuation methodology, it is clear that captain and evacuation-related crews have to control all the evacuation passages and evacuees of each passages to save more lives.

High-Precision and 3D GIS Matching and Projection Based User-Friendly Radar Display Technique (3차원 GIS 정합 및 투영에 기반한 사용자 친화적 레이더 자료 표출 기법)

  • Jang, Bong-Joo;Lee, Keon-Haeng;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Lim, Sanghun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.12
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    • pp.1145-1154
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, as frequency and intensity of severe weather disasters such as flash flood have been increasing, providing accurate and prompt information to the public is very important and needs of user-friendly monitoring/warning system are growing. This paper introduces a method that re-produces radar observations as multimedia contents and applies reproduced data to mesh-up services. In addition, a accurate GIS matching technique to help to track the exact location going on serious atmospheric phenomena is presented. The proposed method create multimedia contents having structures such as two dimensional images, vector graphics or three dimensional volume data by re-producing various radar variables obtained from a weather radar. After then, the multimedia formatted weather radar data are matched with various detailed raster or vector GIS map platform. Results of simulation test with various scenarios indicate that the display system based on the proposed method can support for users to figure out easily and intuitively routes and degrees of risk of severe weather. We expect that this technique can also help for emergency manager to interpret radar observations properly and to forecast meteorological disasters more effectively.

Application of SWMM for Reduction of Runoff and Pollutant Loading in LID Facilities (LID시설의 유출량 및 오염부하 저감효율평가를 위한 SWMM모델의 적용)

  • Jung, Kwang-Wook;Jung, Jong-Suk;Park, Jin-Sung;Hyun, Kyoung-Hak
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.249-256
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    • 2017
  • Urbanization can be remarkable affected flood, pollutant loading, ecological system, and green infrastructure by distortion of hydrologic cycle. In order to mitigate these problems in urban, Low Impact Development(LID) technique has been introduced and applied in the world. SWMM model was calibrated with sets of field monitoring data and applied for calculation of runoff and pollutant loading in Asan-tangjung LID city under 2016 rainfall. Runoff reduction of watershed and catchment basins were showed efficiency 12.2% and 62.0%, respectively. Reduction of COD and TP loading also high efficiency in catchment basins were evaluated 74.9 and 71.4%. The results of this study can be used effectively in decision making processes of urban development project by comparing watershed runoff and pollutant reduction by designs of sort of LID technique, LID volume and location.

Study on the Collision Avoidance Algorithm against Multiple Traffic Ships using Changeable Action Space Searching Method (가변공간 탐색법을 이용한 다중선박의 충돌회피 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Son, N.S.;Furukawa, Y.;Kim, S.Y.;Kijima, K.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2009
  • Auto-navigation algorithm have been studied to avoid collision and grounding of a ship due to human error. There have been many research on collision avoidance algorithms but they have been validated little on the real coastal traffic situation. In this study, a Collision Avoidance algorithm is developed by using Fuzzy algorithm and the concept of Changeable Action Space Searching (CAS). In the first step, on a basis of collision risk calculated from fuzzy algorithm in the current time(t=to), alternative Action Space for collision avoidance is planned. In the second step, next alternative Action Space for collision avoidance in the future($t=to+{\Delta}t$) is corrected and re-planned with re-evaluated collision risk. In the third step, the safest and most effective course among Action Space is selected by using optimization method in real time. In this paper, the main features of the developed collision avoidance algorithm (CAS) are introduced. CAS is implemented in the ship-handling simulator of MOERI. The performance of CAS is tested on the situation of open sea with 3 traffic ships, whose position is assumed to be informed from AIS. Own-ship is fully autonomously navigated by autopilot including the collision avoidance algorithm, CAS. Experimental results show that own-ship can successfully avoid the collision against traffic ships and the calculated courses from CAS are reasonable.

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Developing algorithms for providing evacuation and detour route guidance under emergency conditions (재난.재해 시 대피 및 우회차량 경로 제공 알고리즘 개발)

  • Yang, Choong-Heon;Son, Young-Tae;Yang, In-Chul;Kim, Hyun-Myoung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2009
  • The transportation network is a critical infrastructure in the event of natural and human caused disasters such as rainfall, snowfall, and terror and so on. Particularly, the transportation network in an urban area where a large number of population live is subject to be negatively affected from such events. Therefore, efficient traffic operation plans are required to assist rapid evacuation and effective detour of vehicles on the network as soon as possible. Recently, ubiquitous communication and sensor network technology is very useful to improve data collection and connection related emergency information. In this study, we develop a specific algorithm to provide evacuation route and detour information only for vehicles under emergency situations. Our algorithm is based on shortest path search technique and dynamic traffic assignment. We perform the case study to evaluate model performance applying hypothetical scenarios involved terror. Results show that the model successfully describe effective path for each vehicle under emergency situation.

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Projecting Future Paddy Irrigation Demands in Korea Using High-resolution Climate Simulations (고해상도 기후자료를 이용한 우리나라의 논 관개요구량 예측)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2011
  • The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

Effect of Change in Hydrological Environment by Climate Change on River Water Quality in Nam River Watershed (기후변화에 따른 남강유역의 수문환경의 변화가 하천수질에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Ji Yoon;Kim, Young Do;Kang, Boo Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.873-884
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    • 2013
  • In Korea, the rainfall is concentrated in summer under the influence of monsoon climate. Thus, even a small climate change can be significant problems in water resources. As a result, a lot of attention has been focused on climate changes and a number of researches have been conducted in a manner commensurate with the attention to the climate change. This study is intended to forecast the changes in the flow and water quality of the Nam river resulting from the future climate changes in the Nam river basin using a watershed and water quality model. An SWAT model, as a watershed hydrologic model, was established after estimating a climate scenario using an artificial neural network method, and the established model was verified and adjusted using date from the Ministry of Environment to evaluate the applicability of the model. As a consequence, $R^2$ showed more than 0.7 in the simulation test, which satisfies the minimum required level. Results from the SWAT model and the future Namgang dam discharge calculated by HEC-ResSIM is used as input date for QUALKO. The results showed a huge variation in BOD depending on the annual flow of the river, which recorded a maximum difference of 2 mg/L between a rainy season and a dry season. It can be deduced that because rainfall and the runoff of a basin significantly account for the water quality of a river, higher water concentrations are recorded in a dry season in which the flow is not as much as that in a rainy season. It also can be said that water should be reserved in advance to secure water in the Nam river downstream for a dry season and be controlled in an effective and efficient manner to provide better water quality.