• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열 모델링

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Multi-FNN Identification by Means of HCM Clustering and ITs Optimization Using Genetic Algorithms (HCM 클러스터링에 의한 다중 퍼지-뉴럴 네트워크 동정과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 이의 최적화)

  • 오성권;박호성
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.487-496
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, the Multi-FNN(Fuzzy-Neural Networks) model is identified and optimized using HCM(Hard C-Means) clustering method and genetic algorithms. The proposed Multi-FNN is based on Yamakawa's FNN and uses simplified inference as fuzzy inference method and error back propagation algorithm as learning rules. We use a HCM clustering and Genetic Algorithms(GAs) to identify both the structure and the parameters of a Multi-FNN model. Here, HCM clustering method, which is carried out for the process data preprocessing of system modeling, is utilized to determine the structure of Multi-FNN according to the divisions of input-output space using I/O process data. Also, the parameters of Multi-FNN model such as apexes of membership function, learning rates and momentum coefficients are adjusted using genetic algorithms. A aggregate performance index with a weighting factor is used to achieve a sound balance between approximation and generalization abilities of the model. The aggregate performance index stands for an aggregate objective function with a weighting factor to consider a mutual balance and dependency between approximation and predictive abilities. According to the selection and adjustment of a weighting factor of this aggregate abjective function which depends on the number of data and a certain degree of nonlinearity, we show that it is available and effective to design an optimal Multi-FNN model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, we use the time series data for gas furnace and the numerical data of nonlinear function.

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SpatioTemporal GIS를 활용한 도시공간모형 적용에 관한 연구 / 인구분포모델링을 중심으로

  • 남광우;이성호;김영섭;최철옹
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2002.03b
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    • pp.127-141
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    • 2002
  • GIS환경에서 도시모형(urban model)의 적용을 목적으로 사회·경제적 데이터(socio-economic data)를 활용하는 과정은 도시현상이 갖는 복잡성과 변동성으로 인해 하나의 특정시간에서의 상황을 그대로 저장한 형태인 스냅샷 모형(snapshot model)만으로는 효율적인 공간분석의 실행이 불가능하다. 또한 도시모형을 적용하는 과정에서 GIS의 대상이 되는 공간, 속성, 시간의 정의는 분석목적에 따라 다르게 정의되어질 수 있으며 이에 따라 상이한 결과가 도출될 수 있다. 본 연구는 30년 간의 부산시 인구분포의 동적 변화과정 관측을 위해 시간개념을 결합한 Temporal GIS를 구축하고 이를 활용하여 인구밀도모형 및 접근성모형을 적용하는 과정을 통해 보다 효율적이고 다양한 결과를 제시할 수 있는 GIS 활용방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 흔히 공간현상의 계량화와 통계적 기법의 적용을 위한 데이터 처리과정은 많은 오차와 오류를 유발할 수 있다. 이러한 문제의 해결을 위해서는 우선적으로 분석목적에 맞는 데이터의 정의(Data Definition), 적용하고자 하는 모형(Model)의 유용성 검증, 적절한 분석단위의 설정, 결과해석의 객관적 접근 등이 요구된다. 이와 더불어 변동성 파악을 위한 시계열 자료의 효율적 처리를 위한 방법론이 마련되어져야 한다. 즉, GIS환경에서의 도시모형의 적용에 따른 효율성과 효과성의 극대화를 위해서는 분석목적에 맞는 데이터모델의 설정과 공간DB의 구축방법이 이루어져야 하며 분석가능한 데이터의 유형에 대한 충분한 고려와 적용과정에서 분석결과에 중대한 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요소들을 미리 검증하여 결정하는 순환적 의사결정과정이 필요하다., 표준패턴을 음표와 비음표의 두개의 그룹으로 나누어 인식함으로써 DP 매칭의 처리 속도를 개선시켰고, 국소적인 변형이 있는 패턴과 특징의 수가 다른 패턴의 경우에도 좋은 인식률을 얻었다.r interferon alfa concentrated solution can be established according to the monograph of EP suggesting the revision of Minimum requirements for biological productss of e-procurement, e-placement, e-payment are also investigated.. monocytogenes, E. coli 및 S. enteritidis에 대한 키토산의 최소저해농도는 각각 0.1461 mg/mL, 0.2419 mg/mL, 0.0980 mg/mL 및 0.0490 mg/mL로 측정되었다. 또한 2%(v/v) 초산 자체의 최소저해농도를 측정한 결과, B. cereus, L. mosocytogenes, E. eoli에 대해서는 control과 비교시 유의적인 항균효과는 나타나지 않았다. 반면에 S. enteritidis의 경우는 배양시간 4시간까지는 항균활성을 나타내었지만, 8시간 이후부터는 S. enteritidis의 성장이 control 보다 높아져 배양시간 20시간에서는 control 보다 약 2배 이상 균주의 성장을 촉진시켰다.차에 따른 개별화 학습을 가능하게 할 뿐만 아니라 능동적인 참여를 유도하여 학습효율을 높일 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.향은 패션마케팅의 정의와 적용범위를 축소시킬 수 있는 위험을 내재한 것으로 보여진다. 그런가 하면, 많이 다루어진 주제라

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Development of daily spatio-temporal downscaling model with conditional Copula based bias-correction of GloSea5 monthly ensemble forecasts (조건부 Copula 함수 기반의 월단위 GloSea5 앙상블 예측정보 편의보정 기법과 연계한 일단위 시공간적 상세화 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Kim, Min Ji;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1317-1328
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to provide a predictive model based on climate models for simulating continuous daily rainfall sequences by combining bias-correction and spatio-temporal downscaling approaches. For these purposes, this study proposes a combined modeling system by applying conditional Copula and Multisite Non-stationary Hidden Markov Model (MNHMM). The GloSea5 system releases the monthly rainfall prediction on the same day every week, however, there are noticeable differences in the updated prediction. It was confirmed that the monthly rainfall forecasts are effectively updated with the use of the Copula-based bias-correction approach. More specifically, the proposed bias-correction approach was validated for the period from 1991 to 2010 under the LOOCV scheme. Several rainfall statistics, such as rainfall amounts, consecutive rainfall frequency, consecutive zero rainfall frequency, and wet days, are well reproduced, which is expected to be highly effective as input data of the hydrological model. The difference in spatial coherence between the observed and simulated rainfall sequences over the entire weather stations was estimated in the range of -0.02~0.10, and the interdependence between rainfall stations in the watershed was effectively reproduced. Therefore, it is expected that the hydrological response of the watershed will be more realistically simulated when used as input data for the hydrological model.

An Empirical Study on Predictive Modeling to enhance the Product-Technical Roadmap (제품-기술로드맵 개발을 강화하기 위한 예측모델링에 관한 실증 연구)

  • Park, Kigon;Kim, YoungJun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2021
  • Due to the recent development of system semiconductors, technical innovation for the electric devices of the automobile industry is rapidly progressing. In particular, the electric device of automobiles is accelerating technology development competition among automobile parts makers, and the development cycle is also changing rapidly. Due to these changes, the importance of strategic planning for R&D is further strengthened. Due to the paradigm shift in the automobile industry, the Product-Technical Roadmap (P/TRM), one of the R&D strategies, analyzes technology forecasting, technology level evaluation, and technology acquisition method (Make/Collaborate/Buy) at the planning stage. The product-technical roadmap is a tool that identifies customer needs of products and technologies, selects technologies and sets development directions. However, most companies are developing the product-technical roadmap through a qualitative method that mainly relies on the technical papers, patent analysis, and expert Delphi method. In this study, empirical research was conducted through simulations that can supplement and strengthen the product-technical roadmap centered on the automobile industry by fusing Gartner's hype cycle, cumulative moving average-based data preprocessing, and deep learning (LSTM) time series analysis techniques. The empirical study presented in this paper can be used not only in the automobile industry but also in other manufacturing fields in general. In addition, from the corporate point of view, it is considered that it will become a foundation for moving forward as a leading company by providing products to the market in a timely manner through a more accurate product-technical roadmap, breaking away from the roadmap preparation method that has relied on qualitative methods.

Analysis of Changes in Urban Spatial Structure for Balanced Urban Development (도시균형발전을 위한 도시공간구조 변화 진단)

  • KIM, Ho-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.40-51
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to diagnose urban spatial structures using spatial modeling techniques for balanced urban development as part of sustainable urban growth management. Since urban spatial structure is an interaction of various activities, it is necessary to interpret the analysis results in conjunction with the analysis of changes in spatial structural elements. In this study, population and transportation were approached for research purposes. Population data were applied to the Getis-Ord Gi* method, a spatial statistical technique, to analyze the concentration-decreasing region of the population. Traffic data analyzed the trend of centrality change by applying commuting traffic O-D data to Social Network Analysis techniques. The analysis showed that urban imbalance was growing, and the centrality of transportation was changing. The results of the analysis of spatial structure elements could be interpreted by linking the results of each factor to each neighborhood unit, predicting changes in urban spatial structure and suggesting directions for sustainable urban growth management.These results could also be used as a decision-making tool for various urban growth management policies introduced to cope with rapid urban development and uncontrollable development in many cities around the world.

Combining Conditional Generative Adversarial Network and Regression-based Calibration for Cloud Removal of Optical Imagery (광학 영상의 구름 제거를 위한 조건부 생성적 적대 신경망과 회귀 기반 보정의 결합)

  • Kwak, Geun-Ho;Park, Soyeon;Park, No-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1357-1369
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    • 2022
  • Cloud removal is an essential image processing step for any task requiring time-series optical images, such as vegetation monitoring and change detection. This paper presents a two-stage cloud removal method that combines conditional generative adversarial networks (cGANs) with regression-based calibration to construct a cloud-free time-series optical image set. In the first stage, the cGANs generate initial prediction results using quantitative relationships between optical and synthetic aperture radar images. In the second stage, the relationships between the predicted results and the actual values in non-cloud areas are first quantified via random forest-based regression modeling and then used to calibrate the cGAN-based prediction results. The potential of the proposed method was evaluated from a cloud removal experiment using Sentinel-2 and COSMO-SkyMed images in the rice field cultivation area of Gimje. The cGAN model could effectively predict the reflectance values in the cloud-contaminated rice fields where severe changes in physical surface conditions happened. Moreover, the regression-based calibration in the second stage could improve the prediction accuracy, compared with a regression-based cloud removal method using a supplementary image that is temporally distant from the target image. These experimental results indicate that the proposed method can be effectively applied to restore cloud-contaminated areas when cloud-free optical images are unavailable for environmental monitoring.

Numerical Modelling of Typhoon-Induced Storm Surge on the Coast of Busan (부산 연안에서 태풍에 의한 폭풍해일의 수치모델링)

  • Cha-Kyum Kim;Tae-Soon Kang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.760-769
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    • 2023
  • A numerical simulations were performed to investigate the storm surge during the passage of Typhoon Maemi on the coast of Busan. The typhoon landed on the southern coasts of Korean Peninsula at 21:00, September 12, 2003 with a central pressure of 950 hPa, and the typhoon resulted on the worst coastal disaster on the coast of Busan in the last decades. Observed storm surges at Busan, Yeosu, Tongyoung, Masan, Jeju and Seogwipo harbors during the passage of the typhoon were compared with the computed data. The simulated storm surge time series were in good agreement with the observations. The simulated peak storm surges were estimated to be 230 cm at Masan harbor, 200 cm at Yeosu harbor and Tongyoung harbor, and 75 cm at Busan harbor. The computed storm surges along the east coast of Busan measure 52 to 55 cm, exhibiting a gradual reduction in surge height as one moves further from the coast of Busan. Therefore, coastal inundation due to the storm surge in the semi-enclosed bay can induce great disasters, and the simulated results can be used as the important data to reduce the impact of a typhoon-induced coastal disaster in the future.

Survey of coastal topography using images from a single UAV (단일 UAV를 이용한 해안 지형 측량)

  • Noh, Hyoseob;Kim, Byunguk;Lee, Minjae;Park, Yong Sung;Bang, Ki Young;Yoo, Hojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.spc1
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    • pp.1027-1036
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    • 2023
  • Coastal topographic information is crucial in coastal management, but point measurment based approeaches, which are labor intensive, are generally applied to land and underwater, separately. This study introduces an efficient method enabling land and undetwater surveys using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). This method involves applying two different algorithms to measure the topography on land and water depth, respectively, using UAV imagery and merge them to reconstruct whole coastal digital elevation model. Acquisition of the landside terrain is achieved using the Structure-from-Motion Multi-View Stereo technique with spatial scan imagery. Independently, underwater bathymetry is retrieved by employing a depth inversion technique with a drone-acquired wave field video. After merging the two digital elevation models into a local coordinate, interpolation is performed for areas where terrain measurement is not feasible, ultimately obtaining a continuous nearshore terrain. We applied the proposed survey technique to Jangsa Beach, South Korea, and verified that detailed terrain characteristics, such as berm, can be measured. The proposed UAV-based survey method has significant efficiency in terms of time, cost, and safety compared to existing methods.

Radiation Flux Impact in High Density Residential Areas - A Case Study from Jungnang area, Seoul - (고밀도 주거지역에서의 복사플럭스 영향 연구 - 서울시 중랑구 지역을 대상으로 -)

  • YI, Chae-Yeon;KWON, Hyuk-Gi;Lindberg, Fredrik
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.26-49
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to verify the reliability of the solar radiation model and discuss its applicability to the urban area of Seoul for summer heat stress mitigation. We extended the study area closer to the city scale and enhanced the spatial resolution sufficiently to determine pedestrian-level urban radiance. The domain was a $4km^2$ residential area with high-rise building sites. Radiance modelling (SOLWEIG) was performed with LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-based detailed geomorphological land cover shape. The radiance model was evaluated using surface energy balance (SEB) observations. The model showed the highest accuracy on a clear day in summer. When the mean radiation temperature (MRT) was simulated, the highest value was for a low-rise building area and road surface with a low shadow effect. On the other hand, for high-rise buildings and vegetated areas, the effect of shadows was large and showed a relatively low value of mean radiation temperature. The method proposed in this study exhibits high reliability for the management of heat stress in urban areas at pedestrian height. It is applicable for many urban micro-climate management functions related to natural and artificial urban settings; for example, when a new urban infrastructure is planned.

A Localized Secular Variation Model of the Geomagnetic Field Over Northeast Asia Region between 1997 to 2011 (지역화된 동북아시아지역의 지구자기장 영년변화 모델: 1997-2011)

  • Kim, Hyung Rae
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 2015
  • I produced a secular variation model of geomagnetic field by using the magnetic component data from four geomagnetic observatories located in Northeast Asia during the years between 1997 and 2011. The Earth's magnetic field varies with time and location due to the dynamics of fluid outer core and the magnetic observatories on the surface measure in time series. To adequately represent the magnetic field or secular variations of the Earth, a spatio-temporal model is required. In making a global model, satellite observations as well as limited observatory data are necessary to cover the regions and time intervals. However, you need a considerable work and time to process a huge amount of the dataset with complicated signal separation procedures. When you update the model, the same amount of chores is demanded. Besides, the global model might be affected by the measurement errors of each observatory that are biased and the processing errors in satellite data so that the accuracy of the model would be degraded. In this study, as considered these problems, I introduced a localized method in modeling secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field over Northeast Asia region. Secular variation data from three Japanese observatories and one Chinese observatory that are all in the INTERMAGNET are implemented in the model valid between 1997 to 2011 with the interval of 6 months. With the resulting model, I compared with the global model called CHAOS-4, which includes the main, secular variation and secular acceleration models between 1997 to 2013 by using the three satellites' databases and INTERMAGNET observatory data. Also, the geomagnetic 'jerk' which is known as a sudden change in the time derivatives of the main field of the Earth, was discussed from the localized secular acceleration coefficients derived from spline models.