• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.115-124
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• 2023

Currently, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, the scale of damage increases when extreme weather events occur. This has been providing forecast information by investing a lot of time and resources to predict rainfall from the past. However, this information is difficult for non-experts to understand, and it does not include information on how much damage occurs when extreme weather events occur. Therefore, in this study, a risk matrix based on heavy rain damage rating was presented by using the impact forecasting standard through the creation of a risk matrix presented for the first time in the UK. First, through correlation analysis between rainfall data and damage data, variables necessary for risk matrix creation are selected, and PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%) and JNBC (Jenks Natural Breaks Classification) techniques suggested in previous studies are used. Therefore, a rating standard according to rainfall and damage was calculated, and two rating standards were synthesized to present one standard. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the number of households affected by the disaster, PERCENTILE showed the highest distribution than JNBC in the Yeongsan River and Seomjin River basins where the most damage occurred, and similar results were shown in the Chungcheong-do area. Looking at the results of rainfall grading, JNBC's grade was higher than PERCENTILE's, and the highest grade was shown especially in Jeolla-do and Chungcheong-do. In addition, when comparing with the current status of heavy rain warnings in the affected area, it can be confirmed that JNBC is similar. In the risk matrix results, it was confirmed that JNBC replicated better than PERCENTILE in Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk regions, which suffered the most damage.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.137-146
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• 2007

This study was conducted to determine fertilizer nutrient and pollutant production of Holstein dairy cattle by estimating manure characteristics. The moisture content of feces was 83.9% and 95.1% for urine. The pH of feces and urine were in the ranges of 7.0～7.4 and 7.5～7.8, respectively. The average BOD5, COD, SS, T-N, T-P concentrations of the dairy feces were 18,294, 52,765, 102,889, 2,575, and 457mg/ℓ, respectively. Dairy urine showed lower levels of BOD5(5,455mg/ℓ), COD(8,089mg/ℓ), SS(593mg/ℓ), T-N(3,401mg/l), and T-P(13mg/ℓ) than feces. The total daily produced pollutant amounts of a dairy cow were 924.1g(Milking cow), 538.8g(Dry cow), 284.4g(Heifer) of BOD5, 2,336.5g (Milking cow), 1,651.8g(Dry cow), 734.1g(Heifer) of COD and 4,210.1g(Milking cow), 2,417.1g(Dry cow), 1,629.1g(Heifer) of SS and 194.8g(Milking cow), 96.4g(Dry cow), 58.3g(Heifer) of T-N and 24.0g(Milking cow), 10.2g(Dry cow), 6.1g(Heifer) of T-P. The calculated amount of pollutants produced by a 450kg dairy cow for one year were 181.3kg of BOD5, 492.5kg of COD, 899.9kg of SS, 36.0kg of T-N and 4.1kg of T-P. The total yearly estimated pollutant production from all head(497,261) of dairy cattle in Korea is 90,149 tons of BOD5, 244,890 tons of COD, 447,491 tons of SS, 17,898 tons of T-N and 2,008 tons of T-P. The fertilizer nutrient concentrations of dairy feces was 0.26% N, 0.1% P2O5 and 0.14% K2O. Urine was found to contain 0.34% N, 0.003% of P2O5 and 0.31% K2O. The total daily fertilizer nutrients produced by dairy cattle were 197.4g (Milking cow), 97.4g(Dry cow), and 57.9g(Heifer) of Nitrogen, 54.2g(Milking cow), 22.2g(Dry cow), and 14.2g(Heifer) of P2O5 and 110.8g(Milking cow), 80.4g (Dry cow), and 39.5g(Heifer) of K2O. The total yearly estimated fertilizer nutrient produced by a 450kg dairy animal is 36.2kg of N, 8.8kg of P2O5, 24.6kg of K2O. The estimated yearly fertilizer nutrient production from all dairy cattle in Korea is 18,000 tons of N, 4,397 tons of P2O5, 12,206 tons of K2O. Dairy manure contains useful trace minerals for crops, such as CaO and MgO, which are contained in similar levels to commercial compost being sold in the domestic market. Concentrations of harmful trace minerals, such as As, Cd, Hg, Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, met the Korea compost standard regulations, with some of these minerals being in undetected amounts.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.173-198
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• 2020

For a long time, many studies have been conducted on predicting the success of campaigns for customers in academia, and prediction models applying various techniques are still being studied. Recently, as campaign channels have been expanded in various ways due to the rapid revitalization of online, various types of campaigns are being carried out by companies at a level that cannot be compared to the past. However, customers tend to perceive it as spam as the fatigue of campaigns due to duplicate exposure increases. Also, from a corporate standpoint, there is a problem that the effectiveness of the campaign itself is decreasing, such as increasing the cost of investing in the campaign, which leads to the low actual campaign success rate. Accordingly, various studies are ongoing to improve the effectiveness of the campaign in practice. This campaign system has the ultimate purpose to increase the success rate of various campaigns by collecting and analyzing various data related to customers and using them for campaigns. In particular, recent attempts to make various predictions related to the response of campaigns using machine learning have been made. It is very important to select appropriate features due to the various features of campaign data. If all of the input data are used in the process of classifying a large amount of data, it takes a lot of learning time as the classification class expands, so the minimum input data set must be extracted and used from the entire data. In addition, when a trained model is generated by using too many features, prediction accuracy may be degraded due to overfitting or correlation between features. Therefore, in order to improve accuracy, a feature selection technique that removes features close to noise should be applied, and feature selection is a necessary process in order to analyze a high-dimensional data set. Among the greedy algorithms, SFS (Sequential Forward Selection), SBS (Sequential Backward Selection), SFFS (Sequential Floating Forward Selection), etc. are widely used as traditional feature selection techniques. It is also true that if there are many risks and many features, there is a limitation in that the performance for classification prediction is poor and it takes a lot of learning time. Therefore, in this study, we propose an improved feature selection algorithm to enhance the effectiveness of the existing campaign. The purpose of this study is to improve the existing SFFS sequential method in the process of searching for feature subsets that are the basis for improving machine learning model performance using statistical characteristics of the data to be processed in the campaign system. Through this, features that have a lot of influence on performance are first derived, features that have a negative effect are removed, and then the sequential method is applied to increase the efficiency for search performance and to apply an improved algorithm to enable generalized prediction. Through this, it was confirmed that the proposed model showed better search and prediction performance than the traditional greed algorithm. Compared with the original data set, greed algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), and recursive feature elimination (RFE), the campaign success prediction was higher. In addition, when performing campaign success prediction, the improved feature selection algorithm was found to be helpful in analyzing and interpreting the prediction results by providing the importance of the derived features. This is important features such as age, customer rating, and sales, which were previously known statistically. Unlike the previous campaign planners, features such as the combined product name, average 3-month data consumption rate, and the last 3-month wireless data usage were unexpectedly selected as important features for the campaign response, which they rarely used to select campaign targets. It was confirmed that base attributes can also be very important features depending on the type of campaign. Through this, it is possible to analyze and understand the important characteristics of each campaign type.