• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.241-250
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• 2015

An important scientific objective of longitudinal studies involves tracking the probability of a subject having certain health condition over the course of the study. Proper definitions and estimates of disease risk tracking have important implications in the design and analysis of long-term biomedical studies and in developing guidelines for disease prevention and intervention. We study in this paper a class of rank-tracking probabilities to describe a subject's conditional probabilities of having certain health outcomes at two different time points. Linear mixed effects models are considered to estimate the tracking probabilities and their ratios of interest. We apply our methods to an epidemiological study of childhood cardiovascular risk factors.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.837-852
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• 2000

Backgrounds : Today, tuberculosis cannot only be cured medically, but also controlled by public health. Despite the overall worldwide decline in tuberculosis, the disease continues to be a significant problem among developing countries and in the slums of large cities in some industrialized countries. Particularly, this communicable disease has come into the public health spotlight because of its resurgence in the 1990's. our country has been operating the Korean National Tuberculosis Control Program since 1962, focusing around public health centers. Therefore, this study aims to compare the effectiveness of tuberculosis control activities, one of the major public health activities in Korea, by producing indexes, such as the yearly registration rate per 100,000 population and treatment compliance of tuberculosis on in small areas (communities). Methods : This work was accomplished by constructing a time-series analytic model using data from "1980~2000: the Yearly Statistical Report" with patient registry data of 234 City. County. District public health centers and by identifying the factors influencing the tuberculosis indexes. Results : The trends of pulmonary tuberculosis positive point prevalence and pulmonary tuberculosis negative point prevalence on X-ray screening have declined steadily, beginning in 1981 and continuing to 1998 by region (city, county, district). Although the tuberculosis mortality rate steadily shows a declining trend by year and region, but Korea still ranks first among 29 OECD countries in 1998, with a tuberculosis mortality rate of 7.1 per 100,000 persons, according to the time-series analysis for fatal diseases. Conclusion : The results of the study will form the fundamental basis of future regional health care planning and the Korean Tuberculosis Surveillance System on 2000. Since the implementation of local autonomy through the Local Health Act of 1995, it has now become vita1 for each city, county, district public health centers to determine its own priorities for relevant health care management, including budget allocation and program goals.