• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.517-523
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• 2020

Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port handles the largest volume of finished vehicles in Korea, including more than 95% of imported cars. However, since the volume of imported cars has been stagnant since 2015, officials planning to invest in port development or automobile-related industries must make new forecasts. Economic variables such as the GDP often have been used in predicting automobile volume, but prior research showed that the impact of these economic variables on automobile volume I has been gradually decreasing in developed countries. These variables remain important predictors, however, in developing countries that experience rapid economic growth. In this study, predicting the volume of imported passenger cars at Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port, the decreasing Korean population was a major factor we considered. Our forecast showed that the volume of imported passenger cars at Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port will gradually decrease -by 2021. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verification was performed to measure the accuracy of the predicted results, and the scenario analysis was performed on the share of imported passenger cars.