• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.439-439
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• 2011

최근 이상기후로 인해 세계의 기후, 날씨가 변화하는 추세이다. 이에 따라 한국, 프랑스, 미국 등 세계 각지에서 이상홍수 및 이상가뭄이 발생하고 이로 인한 재산 및 인명피해가 빈번한 현황이다. 따라서 전 세계적으로 기후변화를 고려하여 홍수피해를 저감하고자 많은 노력을 기울이고 있으며, 그러한 방법 중에서도 특히 설계 또는 계획수립 시에 많이 사용되는 방식으로 수치해석 및 수리실험 방법을 들 수 있다. 특히, 수치해석은 수리실험에 비해 비교적 짧은 시간과 경제적인 장점이 있으므로 많이 이용되는 방법 중의 하나이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 수치해석을 통해 프랑스 남부에 위치한 니스 지역 Var강의 역사상 가장 큰 실강우에 대하여 다양한 방식의 수치해석을 수행하고 수위 관측지점의 수위자료와 비교분석하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 대상지역을 프랑스 남부에 위치한 니스지역의 Var강으로 선정하였다. 이 지역은 지중해성 기후에 속해 건조하고 따뜻한 날씨였지만 최근 이상기후로 인해 잦은 강우와 홍수 등이 발생하고 있다. 가장 심한 피해가 발생했던 1994년 11월에 발생한 폭우로 인하여 최대 유량이 $3,500m^3/s$까지 관측 되었으며 이는 평균 유량인 $50~100m^3/s$의 35~70배에 달하는 유량이다. 이 홍수로 인해 Var강 유역의 많은 지역이 물에 잠기고 2개의 수중구조물이 파괴되는 등 많은 피해가 발생하였다. 본 연구에서 사용된 수치모형은 미 공병단의 HEC-HMS와 상용 프로그램인 MIKE11과 ISIS이다. MIKE11과 ISIS는 1차원 수리분석모형 프로그램으로써 흐름, 속도, 유량, 수질, 유사이동 등 개수로에서 여러 수리학적 현상을 분석할 수 있는 프로그램이다. 실제 수위자료와 수치모의를 통한 결과값의 비교를 위해 GIS를 통해 얻은 유출계수, 유로경사, 소유역 분할 등을 이용하고 역사상 가장 크게 발생한 1994년의 실강우 이용하여 HEC-HMS을 통해 수문곡선을 작성한 후 동일한 매개변수를 이용하고 검 보정을 통해 MIKE11과 ISIS를 이용하여 수치모의를 실시하였고 실제 수위자료와 프로그램 MIKE11와 ISIS의 결과값을 분석 및 비교하였다. Var강 유역에서 수치모의를 한 결과, 각 프로그램을 사용한 결과값은 실제 수위자료와 비슷한 경향을 보였으며 또한 동일한 매개변수를 이용하였을 때 각 프로그램을 사용한 결과값도 유사한 경향을 보였다. 검 보정을 실시 한 후 ISIS의 결과값이 실제 수위자료와 더 흡사한 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-358
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• 2015

Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.199-207
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• 2024

Local reservoirs are crucial sources for agricultural water supply, necessitating stable water level management to prepare for extreme climate conditions such as droughts. Water level prediction is significantly influenced by local climate characteristics, such as localized rainfall, as well as seasonal factors including cropping times, making it essential to understand the correlation between input and output data as much as selecting an appropriate prediction model. In this study, extensive multivariate data from over 400 reservoirs in Jeollabuk-do from 1991 to 2022 was utilized to train and validate a water level prediction model that comprehensively reflects the complex hydrological and climatological environmental factors of each reservoir, and to analyze the impact of each input feature on the prediction performance of water levels. Instead of focusing on improvements in water level performance through neural network structures, the study adopts a basic Feedforward Neural Network composed of fully connected layers, batch normalization, dropout, and activation functions, focusing on the correlation between multivariate input data and prediction performance. Additionally, most existing studies only present short-term prediction performance on a daily basis, which is not suitable for practical environments that require medium to long-term predictions, such as 10 days or a month. Therefore, this study measured the water level prediction performance up to one month ahead through a recursive method that uses daily prediction values as the next input. The experiment identified performance changes according to the prediction period and analyzed the impact of each input feature on the overall performance based on an Ablation study.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.319-337
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• 2010

Major objective of this study was to determine interannual and seasonal water quality along with characteristics of longitudinal gradients along the reservoir axis of the riverine zone (Rz)-to-lacustrine zone (Lz). Water quality dataset of five years during 2003~2007 used here were obtained from Ministry of Environment, Korea and ten physical, chemical and biological parameters were analyzed in the study. Similarity analysis, based on moropho-hydrological variables of reservoir surface area, watershed area, total inflow, and outflow, showed that the reservoirs were categorized as three groups of large-dam reservoirs (Chungju Reservoir, Daecheong Reservoir and Soyang Reservoir), mid-size reservoirs (Andong Reservoir, Yongdam Reservoir, Juam Reservoir and Hapcheon Reservoir), and small-size reservoirs (Hoengseong Reservoir and Buan Reservoir). According to the data comparison of high-flow year (2003) vs. lowflow year (2005), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, biological oxygen demand (BOD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll-a (CHL) and electrical conductivity (EC) declined along the longitudinal axis of Rz to Lz and water transparency, based on Secchi depth (SD), increased along the axis. These results indicate that transparency was a function of Values of pH, DO, SS, SD, and EC at each site were greater in the low-flow year (2005) than the high-flow year (2003), whereas values of BOD, COD, TN, TP and CHL were greater in the high-flow year (2003). When values of TN, TP, CHL and SD in nine reservoirs were compared in the three zones of Rz, Tz, and Lz, values of TN, TP and CHL declined along longitudinal gradients and SD showed the opposite due to the sedimentation processes from the water column. Values of TN were not statistically correlated with TP values. The empirical linear models of TP-CHL and CHL-SD showed significant (p<0.05, $R^2$>0.04). In the mid-size reservoirs, the variation of CHL was explained ($R^2$=0.2401, p<0.0001, n=239) by the variation of TP. The affinities in the correlation analysis of mid-size reservoirs were greater in the CHL-SD model than any other empirical models, and the CHL-SD model had an inverse relations. In the meantime, water quality variations was evidently greater in Daecheong Reservoir than two reservoirs of Andong Reservoir and Hoengseong Reservoir as a result of large differences of water quality by long distance among Rz, Tz and Lz.