• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.4 no.4 s.14
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• pp.1-12
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• 2002

Pavement Management System has a special purpose that the rehabilitation strategy applied on pavement should be executable in view of technical and economical point after new pavement open to the traffic. To achieve that purpose, a reliable pavement performance prediction model should be embeded in the system. The object of this study is to develop a probabilistic pavement performance prediction model for evaluating asphalt pavements based on the Markov chain concept. In this paper, methodology of the Markov chain modeling principle is explained, and the application of this model to asphalt pavement is described. As the results, transition matrics for predicting asphalt pavement performance are obtained, and also performance life is estimated quantitatively by this system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.63-64
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• 2008

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.58 no.4
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• pp.347-354
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• 2019

Temperature-dependent traits of Laodelphax striatellus, rice stripe virus vector, were investigated at 10 constant temperatures (12.5, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, and 35.0 ± 1℃) under a fixed photoperiod (14/10-hr light/dark cycle). Unit functions for the oviposition model were estimated and implemented into a population dynamics model using DYMEX. The longevity of L. striatellus adults decreased with increasing temperature (56.0 days at 15.0℃ and 17.7 days at 35.0℃). The highest total fecundity (515.9 eggs/female) was observed at 22.5℃, while the lowest (18.6 eggs/female) was observed at 35.0℃. Adult developmental rates, temperature-dependent fecundity, age-specific mortality rates, and age-specific cumulative oviposition rates were estimated. All unit equations described adult performances of L. striatellus accurately (r² =0.94~0.97). After inoculating adults, the constructed model was tested under pot and field conditions using the rice-plant hopper system. The model output and observed data were similar up to 30 days after inoculation; however, there were large discrepancies between observed and estimated population density after 30 days, especially for 1^st and 2^nd instar nymph densities. Model estimates were one or two nymphal stages faster than was observed. Further refinement of the model created in this study could provide realistic forecasting of this important rice pest.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2007.10a
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• pp.137-138
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• 2007

하이브리드 자동차용 리듐 배터리의 수명을 예측하기 위한 듀얼 슬라이딩 모드 관측기를 설계하는 방법에 대해서 논의한다. 단순화된 R-C 모델을 사용하여 리듐 배터리를 전기적으로 모델링하고, 듀얼 슬라이딩 모드 관측기를 설계하는 방법에 대해서 순차적으로 서술한다. 제안된 시스템의 구조는 단순하고 구현이 쉬운 장점이 있으며, 외란에 대해서 강인하다는 특징도 가지고 있다. Lyapunov 조건에 의한 관측기의 수렴성이 증명되고 시스템의 성능은 UDDS(Urban dynamometer driving schedule) 시험에 의해서 입증되었다. 제안된 시스템은 실제 주행 상황에서도 짧은 계산시간과 뛰어난 추적 성능을 보여주었다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2020.07a
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• pp.15-16
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• 2020

본 논문에서는 산업 현장에서 사용되는 기계들의 건전성을 유지하고 예측하는 시스템을 개선할 수 있는 연구 결과를 비교하고 설명한다. 이번 연구에서는 딥러닝 기술을 이용함으로서 특정장치에 종속되지 않고 범용적으로 수집된 소음데이터를 사용하여 현장 적용의 유연성을 높이고, 딥러닝 모델 중 GRU를 이용하여 기존 연구 결과와 비교 실험을 하여 더 우수한 결과를 얻었다.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.119-127
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• 2010

This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.157-165
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• 2016

Among high-tech products, the mobile phone has experienced a rapid rate of innovation and a shortening of its product life cycle. The shortened product life cycle poses major challenges to those involved in the creation of forecasting methods fundamental to strategic management and planning systems. This study examined whether the best model applies to the entire diffusion life span of a mobile phone. Mobile phone sales data from a specific mobile service provider in Korea from March of 2013 to August of 2014 were analyzed to compare the performance of two S-shaped diffusion models and two non-linear regression models, the Gompertz, logistic, Michaelis-Menten, and logarithmic models. The experimental results indicated that the logistic model outperforms the other three models over the fitted region of the diffusion. For forecasting, the logistic model outperformed the Gompertz model for the period prior to diffusion saturation, whereas the Gompertz model was superior after saturation approaches. This analysis may help those estimate the potential mobile phone market size and perform inventory and order management of mobile phones.

• Korean Journal of Materials Research
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.349-356
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• 1994

For the deformation, life time prediction and improvement of the life time in high temperature materials it's very important to know the mechanism of deformation. For these mechanisms the dislocation loop models of Orlova et al. and Mills et al. are used often now. But they show controversial differencies, even if they have unertaken similar experimental tests with the same alloy of A1-5.5at.% Mg. In this work also the similiar tests of them have done under the same temperature of 573 K ; (1) The specimen was deformed by $\sigma$= 30MPa and $\varepsilon$=0.03. (2) Direct after creep deformation of $\sigma$= 30MPa and $\sigma$= 0.03 the stress reduction tests to 15, 10 and OMPa have been performed. (3) To study the loop models dislocation structure and dislocation density ( p ) have been observed.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.188-196
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• 2009

Due to its high power density, long cycle life and clean nature supercapacitors are widely used for improving the dynamic characteristics of the new and renewable energy sources and extending the battery run-time and life. In this paper improved dynamic model of the supercapacitor is developed by the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy technique. The developed model can be used to accurately estimate the dynamic behaviour of the supercapacitor and calculate the exact capacitance value at a certain state of charges. The model of the supercapacitor in the frequency domain is equivalently transformed into that in the time domain for Matlab/Simulink simulaton. The simulation data shows fine agreements with experimental results, thereby proving the validity and the accuracy of the developed model.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.19-27
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• 2014

In order to estimate the life of 2,5 inch HDD which is adopted by PC environment, make the test plan which reflect the failure mode of market, make the test model of accelerated life test which reflect the stress of temperature. after an analysis of the environment of PC using, test procedure was decided that operation was write 50 % and read 50 %, and then access method was sequential 50 % and random 50%. The acceleration life test was executed on condition that temperature was $50^{\circ}C$ and $60^{\circ}C$, performance was 95 % in max performance, test time was 1000 hours. by the test of goodness of fit of anderson-darling of the failure data during test, it was confirmed that the distribution of failure fellow weibull. test for shape and scale was equal, and shape parameter was 0.7177, characteristic life was 429434 hours at normal user condition($30^{\circ}C$) by the analysis of weibull-arrhenius modeling. It made no difference about the statistics when equality test was executed. The activation energy was 0.2775eV. In analyzing between the failure samples of acceleration test and the samples of market return even though there is detail difference about the share of failure mode, the rank of share was almost same. This study suggest the test procedure of acceleration test of 2.5 inch HDD in PC using environment, and help the life estimation at manufacture and user.