• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수명분포추정

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Lifetime Estimation of a Bluetooth Module using Accelerated Life Testing (가속수명시험을 이용한 블루투스 모듈의 수명 예측)

  • Son, Young-Kap;Chang, Seog-Weon;Kim, Jae-Jung
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2008
  • This paper shows quantitative reliability evaluations of a Bluetooth module through extending previous qualitative methods limited to structure reliability tests and solder joint reliability tests for Bluetooth modules. Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) of the modules using temperature difference in temperature cycling as an accelerated stress was conducted for quantitative reliability evaluation under field environment conditions. Lifetime distribution parameters were estimated using the failure times obtained through the ALT, and then Coffin-Manson model was implemented. Results of the ALT showed that the failure mode of the modules was open and the failure mechanisms are both crack and delamination. The ALT reproduced the failure mode and mechanisms of failed Bluetooth modules collected from the field. Further, a quantitative reliability evaluation method with respect to various temperature differences in temperature cycling was proposed in this paper. $B_{10}$ lifetime of the module for the temperature difference $70^{\circ}C$ using the proposed method would be estimated as about 4 years.

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The Prediction of Remaining Life of Concrete Bridge Decks Using The Reliability Analysis (신뢰도 분석을 통한 고속도로 교량의 바닥판 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Park, Jung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Soon;Kim, Ji-Won;Park, Cheol-Woo;Lee, Dong-Hyun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2011
  • Korean national highway has been increased 2 times more for the past ten years because of many highway geometric improvements and new routes since 2000. According to the reasons, maintenance cost has been increased continuously. Deterioration of concrete bridge decks caused by asphalt pavement deformation occupies a high proportion of overall bridge management budget. The number of current highway bridges has reached over 7,800 in 2011, and It is difficult to determine to some future budget. This study predicted the remaining life of concrete bridge decks using the reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution. and The expected future maintenance cost was estimated.

Buckley-James Type Estimators for Entropy of Lifetimes under Random Censorship Model (임의중단모형에서 수명의 엔트로피에 대한 Buckley-James형 추정량)

  • 이재만;차영준;이우동;김종태
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose two Buckley-James type nonparametric estimators for entropy of lifetimes under random censorship model. We investigate the small sample behaviors of the proposed estimators when the underlying distribution has decreasing failure rate, constant failure rate, and increasing failure rate. Also some examples are illustrated for analysing data.

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Estimation of Shelf Life for Propellant KM6 by Using Gamma Process Model (감마과정 모델을 이용한 KM6 추진제의 저장수명 예측)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2012
  • The aim of the study is to investigate the method to estimate a shelf life of KM6 single base propellant by stochastic gamma process model. The state failure level is assumed that the degradation content of stabilizer is below 0.8%. The constant of time dependent shape function and the scale parameter of stationary gamma process are estimated by moment method. The state distribution at each storage time can be shown from probability density function of deterioration. It is estimated that the $B_{10}$ life, a time at which the cumulative failure probability is 10%, is 25 years and the $B_{50}$ life is 36 years from cumulative failure distribution function curve. The $B_{50}$ life can be treated as the average shelf life from the practical viewpoint and the lifetime can be expressed as distribution curve by using stochastic process theory.

The Comparative Software Reliability Model of Fault Detection Rate Based on S-shaped Model (S-분포형 결함 발생률을 고려한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, reliability software model considering fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the S-shaped distribution model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model was used. In a software failure data analysis considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of failure time data and reliability make out.

A Study on the Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis Using Equivalent Stress Distribution (등가분포응력을 이용한 피로균열전파해석에 관한 연구)

  • C.W. Kim;I.S. Nho;K.S. Do
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2002
  • From the viewpoint of linear fracture mechanics, the crack propagation behavior of two different structures having the same K-a relationship could be considered identical. In this study the stress distribution in an infinitely wide cracked plate with the same K-a relationship as in a real structure is defined as the equivalent stress distribution. Fatigue life of a real structural element can be predicted by applying the equivalent stress distribution to a simple structural element, and performing a fatigue crack propagation analysis. The K-a relationship for a structural member can be estimated by a finite element method or a simplified prediction method. The validity to obtain effective crack driving stresses by using the equivalent stress-distribution is examined.

Estimation of Reliability for a Parallel System with Dependent Exponential Components (종속 지수 성분을 가지는 병렬시스템의 신뢰도 추정)

  • 안정향;윤상철
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we study the estimation of reliability function for a parallel system with k dependent exponential components. We assume that the failure of one of the k components changes the life distribution of the remaining components. Also, we compare with Cramer-Rna lower bound for variances of the minimum variance unbiased estimator, and the mean square errors of the maximum likelihood estimator of reliability system with the through the Monte Carlo simulation.

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Development of Probability Distribution Estimation Program for Fatigue Crack Growth Lives (피로균열전파수명의 확률분포추정 프로그램 개발)

  • 김선진;안석환;윤성환
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.1058-1064
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, the development of probability distribution estimation program for fatigue crack growth lives was summarize. The probability distribution estimation program of life was developed to increase the reliability of life estimation. In this study, it is considered that the cause of scatter in fatigue crack growth data is due to material inhomogeneity. The material resistance to fatigue crack growth is modelled as a spatial stochastic process, which varies randomly along the crack path. We developed the GUI program to estimate the probability distribution and reliability using the non-Gaussian stochastic process method. This program can be used for the reliability assessment.

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A Study on Estimation of the Probability Distribution of Fatigue Crack Growth Life for Steels (강의 피로균열전파수명의 확률분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 김선진;윤성환;전창환;정규연;안석환
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.40-45
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    • 2000
  • Presented are the estimation of the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and reliability assessment of structures by simulating material resistance to fatigue crack growth along a crack path. The material resistance is treated as a Weibull stochastic process. A non-Gaussian stochastic fields simulation method proposed by Shimozuka, et al is applied with the statistical data obtained experimentally. Test results are obtained for $\Delta$K constant amplitude load in tension with stress ratio of R=0.2 and three specimen thicknesses of 6, 12 and 18mm. This simulation method is useful to estimate the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and the smallest life.

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A Study on Estimation of the Probability Distribution of Fatigue Crack Growth Life for Steels (강의 피로균열전파수명의 확률분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 김선진;윤성환;전창환;김일석
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2000
  • Presented are the estimation of the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and reliability assessment of structures by simulating material resistance to fatigue crack growth along a crack path. The material resistance is treated as a Weibull stochastic process. A non-Gaussian stochastic fields simulation method proposed by shimozuka, et al is applied with the statistical data obtained experimentally. Test results are obtained for $\delta K$ constant amplitude load in tension with stress ratio of R=0.2 and three specimen thicknesses of 6,12 and 18mm. This simulation method is useful to estimate the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and the smallest life.

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