• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수량 예측

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Effect of Climate Factors on Tree-Ring Growth of Larix leptolepis Distributed in Korea (기후인자가 일본잎갈나무의 연륜생장에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lim, Jong Hwan;Sung, Joo Han;Chun, Jung Hwa;Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.1
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    • pp.122-131
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to analyze the effect of climatic variables on tree-ring growth of Larix leptolepis distributed in Korea by dendroclimatological method. For this, annual tree-ring growth data of Larix leptolepis collected by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory were first organized to analyze yearly growth patterns of the species. To explain the relationship between tree-ring growth of Larix leptolepis and climatic variables, monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2010 were compared with tree-ring growth data for each county. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, six clusters were identified. In addition, index chronology of Larix leptolepis for each cluster was produced through cross-dating and standardization procedures. The adequacy of index chronologies was tested using basic statistics such as mean sensitivity, auto correlation, signal to noise ratio, and expressed population signal of annual tree-ring growth. Response function analysis was finally conducted to reveal the relationship between tree-ring growth and climatic variables for each cluster. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of Larix leptolepis and for predicting changes in tree growth patterns caused by climate change.

Statistic Model by Soil Physico-Chemical Properties for Prediction of Ginseng Root Yield (토양이화학성(土壤理化學性)을 이용(利用)한 인삼근(人蔘根) 수량예측(收量豫測)의 통계적(統計的) 모형(模型))

  • Lee, Jong-Chul;Lee, Il-Ho;Hahn, Weon-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.371-374
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    • 1984
  • This study was conducted to establish the statistic model by use the soil physico-chemical properties for prediction of ginseng root yield. Twenty seven farmer's red ginseng fields from the ginseng growing area were chosen for this study. Root yield of 6-year old ginseng was $1.85{\pm}0.54Kg$ per $3.3m^2$, and it showed positive correlation between yield and porosity, content of clay, clay and silt, organic matter, cation exchange capacity of the field soils, respectively, but showed a negative correlation with available phosphate. Prediction of root yield was possible with equation combined with porosity($X_1$), content of clay($X_2$), clay and silt($X_3$), available phosphate($X_4$), CEC($X_5$), the equation is $Y=-1.175+0.033X_1-0.04X_2+0.012X_3-0.001X_4+0.171X_5$. Standard partial regression coefficients were 0.3799 in CEC, 0.1550 in content of clay, 0.0890 in porosity, 0.0599 in content of clay silt, and -0.0138 in available phosphate.

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Development of water cycle analysis systems and evaluation of Urbanization for the Gap river basin using SWAT (SWAT 모델을 이용한 갑천 유역 물수지 분석 및 도시화 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Jeong-Kon;Son, Kyong-Ho;Noh, Jun-Woo;Jang, Chang-Lae;Ko, Ich-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.130-134
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구의 목적은 하천 복원과 관리에 필수적인 하천의 특성 분석 및 물순환 분석시스템 구축에 있다. 연구 대상지역으로 최근 하천의 생태 기능 회복을 위해 도심생태하천조성 사업이 추진되고 있는 대전 3대 하천유역을 선정하였다. 대전 3대 하천 유역의 물수지와 도시화에 따른 영향을 파악하기 위하여 SWAT을 이용한 물순환 분석시스템을 구축하였다. 모형적용 결과, 유출량과 지하수 수위 변화 등 대전 3대 하천 유역의 특성을 관측치에 가깝게 모의할 수 있었다. 모델의 검보정 실시결과에서 나타난 모델의 계산 값들의 관측된 유출량뿐 아니라 기저유출량 및 지하수 수위와의 높은 상관관계는 본 연구에서 구축한 모델의 구조나 변수의 유효성에 많은 신뢰도를 제공한다고 판단된다. SWAT을 이용하여 대전 3대 하천 유역의 물수지 분석 및 도시화에 따른 영향을 평가하였다. 물수지 분석결과에 의하면, 전체적으로 총 유출량 중 지하수 유출량이 47%정도, 중간 유출량이 31% 그리고 지표유출량이 22%이다. 각 소유역의별 유출 성분 분석결과는 각 소유역의 토지 이용도, 토양 그리고 지형적 특징에 따른 유출 특성을 확인하였다. 도시화 영향 분석 결과 전체적으로 1975년에서 2000년까지 갑천 유역의 약 5%가량의 도시화는 총 유출량의 변화에 있어서는 현저한 차이를 보이지 않았으나, 각 유출 성분의 경우에는 많은 영향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 지표유출량은 45% 가량의 증가를 보였고, 전체 유역의 지하수함양 량이 5%정도 감소한 반면, 도시화가 31%정도 진행된 소유역의 경우에는 17%정도의 현저한 감소를 나타냈다. 본 연구에서 수행한 물수지 분석 및 도시화 영향분석 결과는 향후 대천 3대 하천의 생태하천복원을 위한 물순환 정상화 대책마련 및 하천의 유량확보방안 마련에 기초자료를 제공할 수 있을 것이다.득증대를 꾀함으로 농촌문제 해결에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다. 본 연구를 통해 GIS 와 RS의 기술이 농촌분야에 더 효율적으로 적용될 것으로 기대되며, 농업기술센터를 통한 정보제공을 함으로써 대농민 서비스 및 농업기관의 위상이 제고 될 것으로 기대된다.여 전자파의 공간적인 가시화를 수행할 수 있었다. 본 전자파 시뮬레이션 기법이 실무에 이용될 경우, 일반인이 전자파의 분포에 대한 전문지식을 습득할 필요 없이, 검색하고자 하는 지역과 송전선, 전철 등 각종 전자파의 발생 공간 객체를 선택하여 실생활과 관련된 전자파 정보에 예측할 수 있어, 대민 환경정보 서비스 질의 개선측면에서 획기적인 계기를 마련할 것으로 사료된다.acid$(C_{18:3})$가 대부분을 차지하였다. 야생 돌복숭아 과육 중의 지방산 조성은 포화지방산이 16.74%, 단불포화지방산 17.51% 및 다불포화지방산이 65.73%의 함유 비율을 보였는데, 이 중 다불포화지방산인 n-6계 linoleic acid$(C_{18:2})$와 n-3계 linolenic acid$(C_{18:3})$가 지질 구성 총 지방산의 대부분을 차지하는 함유 비율을 나타내었다.했다. 하강하는 약 4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전

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Experimental Investigation on Behavior of Single Horizontal Buoyant Jet (단일수평부력제트의 거동에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Seo, Il-Won;Kim, Ho-Jung;Kwon, Seok-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1011-1015
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    • 2005
  • 본 실험에서는 부력 조건이 달라질 때 단공방류구에서 정체수역으로 수평방류되는 부력제트의 거동을 규명하였다. LIF (Laser Induced Fluorescence) 시스템을 이용하여 수행하였는데, LIF 시스템은 고해상도의 이미지를 취득할 수 있어 데이터의 정확도가 높으며, 동시에 한 평면상의 농도장을 일시에 측정할 수 있는 장점이 있는 기술이다. LIF 시스템은 크게 세부분으로 구성되어 있는데 방출시스템, 포착시스템, 처리시스템이 그것이다. 실험 조건을 고려해서 온수를 이용하여 주변수와의 밀도차를 재현하였으며, LIF 시스템의 추적입자로 형광염료 Rhodamine B를 사용하였다. 또한, 실험 데이터 취득과정에서 필요한 검정과정을 수행하였는데, LIF 시스템에서 검정과정은 레이저 입사광의 강도가 불균등한 분포를 가지는 점과 주변수의 매질에 의한 근의 감쇠가 발생하는 문제를 해결하기 위한 것이다. LIF 시스템은 부력제트의 농도장을 매우 정밀하게 측정할 수 있는데, 방류밀도 Froude 수가 변함에 따라 측정된 순간이미지를 통해 제트의 진화과정을 상세하고 가시적으로 확인할 수 있었다. 검정과정을 거친 농도 종단면에서 중심선의 연장선이 LIF 시스템에 의해 측정된 순간이미지의 중심선 궤적과 거의 일치하는 것도 알 수 있었다. 또한 LIF 시스템을 통해서 취득된 단일수평부력제트의 궤적과 중심선 희석률을 기존의 상용모형인 VISJET과 CORMIX1에 의해 예측된 결과와 비교$\cdot$분석한 결과, 제트 중심선 궤적의 경우, LIF 시스템을 이용한 측정값은 대체로 VISJET 모형의 결과와 일치하는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 중심선 희석률의 경우, LIF 측정값은 대체로 CORMIX1 모형, Cederwall(1968)의 경험식과 일치하는 경향을 보였다.0\%$일 때가 밸브를 $60\%$$80\%$ 개폐시켰을 때보다 $0.3kg/cm^2,\;0.29kg/cm^2$ 낮게 나타나 밸브를 전체 개방 했을 때 관로내의 수압이 상수설계기준에 적합한 수압을 유지함을 알 수 있다. 상수관로 설계 기준에서는 관로내 수압을 $1.5\~4.0kg/cm^2$으로 나타내고 있는데 $6kg/cm^2$보다 과수압을 나타내는 경우가 $100\%$로 밸브를 개방하였을 때보다 $60\%,\;80\%$ 개방하였을 때가 더 빈번히 발생하고 있으므로 대상지역의 밸브 개폐는 $100\%$ 개방하는 것이 선계기준에 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 밸브 개폐에 따른 수압 변화를 모의한 결과 밸브 개폐도를 적절히 유지하여 필요수량의 확보 및 누수방지대책에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.8R(mm)(r^2=0.84)$로 지수적으로 증가하는 경향을 나타내었다. 유거수량은 토성별로 양토를 1.0으로 기준할 때 사양토가 0.86으로 가장 작았고, 식양토 1.09, 식토 1.15로 평가되어 침투수에 비해 토성별 차이가 크게 나타났다. 이는 토성이 세립질일 수록 유거수의 저항이 작기 때문으로 생각된다. 경사에 따라서는 경사도가 증가할수록 증가하였으며 $10\% 경사일 때를 기준으로 $Ro(mm)=Ro_{10}{\times}0.797{\times}e^{-0.021s(\%)}$로 나타났다.천성 승모판 폐쇄 부전등을 초래하는 심각한 선천성 심질환이다. 그러나 진단 즉시 직접 좌관상동맥-대동맥 이식술로 수술적 교정을 해줌으로써 좋은 성적을 기대할 수 있음을 보여주었다.특히

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Analysing the Relationship Between Tree-Ring Growth of Quercus acutissima and Climatic Variables by Dendroclimatological Method (연륜기후학적 방법에 의한 상수리나무의 연륜생장과 기후인자와의 관계분석)

  • Moon, Na Hyun;Sung, Joo Han;Lim, Jong Hwan;Park, Ko Eun;Shin, Man Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to analyze the relationship between tree-ring growth of Quercus acutissima and climatic variables by dendroclimatological method. Annual tree-ring growth data of Quercus acutissima collected by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory (NFI5) were organized to analyze the spatial distribution of the species growth pattern. To explain the relationship between tree-ring growth of Quercus acutissima and climatic variables, monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2010 were compared with tree-ring growth data for each county. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, four clusters were identified. In addition, index chronology of Quercus acutissima for each cluster was produced through cross-dating and standardization procedures. The adequacy of index chronologies was tested using basic statistics such as mean sensitivity, auto correlation, signal to noise ratio, and expressed population signal of annual tree-ring growth. Response function analysis was conducted to reveal the relationship between tree-ring growth and climatic variables for each cluster. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of Quercus acutissima and for predicting changes in tree growth patterns caused by climate change.

Loading Characteristics of Non-Point Source Pollutants by Rainfall - Case Study with Cherry Tree Plot - (강우시 비점오염원의 오염부하 특성 - 벚나무 재배지를 대상으로 -)

  • Kang, Mee-A;Choi, Byoung-Woo;Yu, Jae-Jeong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.401-407
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to produce the characteristics of pollutant loads caused by a cherry tree plot as a nonpoint sources(NPS) unit in agricultural areas. The relationship between rainfall and runoff didn't show a good coefficient with 0.5. Despite precipitation amount was less than 20 mm, runoff occurred with $0.5\;m^3$ because of high rainfall intensity of 8.8 mm/hr. In contrast, runoff was not occurred when precipitation amount was 47.4 mm in one case. In that case the primal effect on runoff was not precipitation amount. Correlation between load of pollutants such as BOD, COD, TN and TP and runoff' volumes showed significantly positive values which were more than r = 0.92 for all pollutants except SS(r = 0.71). SS could be a proper factor for estimating pollutant loads of BOD, COD, TN and TP because of a high correlation more than r = 0.73 between SS load and pollutant loads of BOD, COD, TN and TP. Both Organics and nutrient pollutants could be reduced if we control SS in runoff. The highest concentration of TN was detected in the event which was affected by fertilization activities directly. Therefore fertilization must be considered as a function of impact parameters on TN load in agricultural areas.

A Sensitivity Analysis of Cell Size on a Distributed Non-Point Source Pollution Model (분산형 비점오염원 모델에서 단위유역 크기의 민감도 분석)

  • Bae, In-Hee;Park, Jung-Eun;Park, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.9
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    • pp.952-957
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    • 2005
  • A sensitivity analysis study was performed to examine the effects of cell size on a distributed non-point source pollution model. The model, AnnAGNPS, whiff is a modified version of USDA's AGNPS, was applied to Eung stream watershed, a tributary of Cheongmi stream located in the South Branch of Han River System. The model components and results, such as channel length, slope, land use, and delivery ratio, were analyzed according to the various cell sizes from 10 to 200 ha. As cell sire increases, channel length decreases due to short-circuiting of meandering creek. The decreased channel length has more significant effects on the model results than any other geomorphological change. When the effects of land use and soil distribution are excluded, sediment delivery loads increase due to shorter time to reach the outlet of the watershed in larger tell size. When those effects are included, however, sediment delivery loads decrease in larger fell size because the variety of land use types can not be inputted. The predominant land use in the applied watershed is forest with very low soil erosion such that the predicted sediment delivery might be much lower than real system. The cell size of 30 ha was determined to produce the most appropriate resolution. Surface runoff and non-point source loads of TN, TP and BOD were predicted and the results agree well with the field measurements. From this study, it was shown that the model results would be very dependent on variations of topography, land use, and soil distribution, as a function of cell size, and the optimum cell size is very important for successful application of distributed non-point source pollution model.

A Water Quality Modeling Study of Chunggye Stream during Combined Sewer OverFlow Period (합류식 하수관거 월류수 유입 기간 동안에 나타나는 청계천 수질 변화 모델 연구)

  • Yi, Hye-Suk;Park, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.12
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    • pp.1340-1346
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    • 2005
  • A water quality modeling study was performed for Chunggye stream during combined sewer overflow(CSO) period, utilizing the diagnostic system for water management in small watershed, CREEK-1(Cyber River for Environment and Economy in Korea). This system integrated geogaphic information system, data base, landscape ecological model(FRAGSTATS), watershed model(SWMM), water quality model (WASP5), and computer graphic. In this study, the watershed model and water quality model were extensively utilized so as to simulate water qualities and flow in Chunggye stream during wet periods. The Chunggye stream watershed was divided into 18 sub-basins in the watershed model and the stream reach into 11 segments in the water quality model. The watershed model was validated against field measurements of BOD, TN, TP, and flow at the downstream location, where the model results showed a reasonable agreement with the field measurements at all parameters. From this study, it was shown that the stream water quality would change along with elapsed time from rainfall start as well as rainfall intensity. The model results indicated that the water quality would significantly upgrade due to the first flush and high sewage ratio of CSO at the beginning of rainfall event, but become degraded along with the runoff increase due to dilution effect.

Development of a System Dynamics Model to Support the Decision Making Processes in the Operation and Management of Water Supply Systems (상수도 시스템의 운영 및 유지관리 의사결정 지원을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모형의 개발)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Kim, Kyu-Lee;Kim, Bong-Jae;Lim, Ki-Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.7
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    • pp.609-623
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    • 2010
  • In this paper the feedback loop mechanisms that are inherent in the management of water supply systems were identified based on the system dynamics modeling methodology. As a result, a system dynamics (SD) computer simulation model that can be used to aid efficient management of water supply systems was developed. The developed SD model can be used to predict operating conditions of water supply systems including the effects of pipe maintenance on the entire system. The developed model is consisted of water supply, pipe maintenance and water supply business finance model. The operation and maintenance data from a study water supply system were used to verify the model and to predict the past and future operating conditions of the system. The policy leverage that greatly affects the operating condition was evaluated by the sensitivity analyses for the operational indices due to changes in the exogenous variables. It was found that while the pipe maintenance related exogenous variables had great effects on the leakage and conditions of pipes, they did not have great effects on the major operational indices such as revenue water ratio. It is considered that the social costs due to leaks and pipe breaks and the corresponding mechanism of propagation of the costs must be modeled to better evaluate the effects of pipe maintenance on the operational conditions of water supply systems.

Effect of Salt Accumulation on the Germination and Growth of Lettuce(Lactuca Sativa, L.) (염류집적(鹽類集積)이 상추의 발아(發芽) 및 생육(生育)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Kang, Bo-Goo;Jeong, In-Myeong;Min, Kyeong-Beom;Kim, Jai-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.360-364
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    • 1996
  • Study on germination ratio and growth of lettuce affected by accumulated salt in vinyl house cultivation soils was investigated by pot test with EC 1.65. 3.50, 5.75. 7.15. 9.50 and 13.57 dS/m. (Germination rate of lettuce in different electric conductivity of 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 dS/m controlled with KCl were 96.7, 96.7, 87.8, 82.2, 52.2, and 27.8 % respectively. Standing ratio of lettuce in soil below 6 dS/m was more than 60% and in soils of 7.15, 9.50 and 13.57 dS/m they were 45, 32 and 31%, respectively. Growth and fresh weight of lettuces increased significantly in a low EC content soil. The fresh weight of lettuces in the soil of EC 3.50 dS/m was higher than that of the soil EC 1.65 dS/m by 22%, while another soils(EC: 5.75, 7.15, 9.50 and 13.57 dS/m) were decreased 3, 15, 60 and 62%, respectively. Relationship between soil EC and standing ratio of lettuce showed high correlation coefficient($r=-0.9057^{**}$). Therefore, in the field of vinyl houses concentrated salt, standing ratio of lettuce can be foreseen by soil EC [Y = -4.313x+ 82.95 (Y:standing ratio, x:soil EC)], also standing ratio and fresh weight of lettuce showed high correlation coefficient($r=0.8396^{**}$).

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