• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-121
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• 2008

Using variable speed limits (VSL) is a key strategy for preventing traffic accidents and alleviating traffic congestion. This study proposes an algorithm to operate VSLs on freeways for traffic safety. The proposed algorithm consists of two components based on accident likelihood estimation and analysis of safe stopping distance under various environmental conditions. A binary logistic regression technique is used for estimating accident likelihood. It is expected that the proposed algorithm would be successfully applied in practice in support of an integrated traffic and environmental condition monitoring system. Technical issues associated with the field implementation are also discussed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.579-586
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• 2018

Short-term prediction of travel speed has been widely studied using data-driven non-parametric techniques. There is, however, a lack of research on the prediction aimed at urban areas due to their complex dynamics stemming from traffic signals and intersections. The purpose of this study is to develop a hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting urban travel speed. The EEMD decomposes the time-series data of travel speed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residue. The decomposed IMFs represent local characteristics of time-scale components and they are predicted using an ANN, respectively. The IMFs can be predicted more accurately than their original travel speed since they mitigate the complexity of the original data such as non-linearity, non-stationarity, and oscillation. The predicted IMFs are summed up to represent the predicted travel speed. To evaluate the proposed method, the travel speed data from the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) in Daegu City are used. Performance evaluations are conducted targeting on the links that are particularly hard to predict. The results show the developed model has the mean absolute error rate of 10.41% in the normal condition and 25.35% in the break down for the 15-min-ahead prediction, respectively, and it outperforms the simple ANN model. The developed model contributes to the provision of the reliable traffic information in urban transportation management systems.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.141-148
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• 2009

An inappropriate evaluation of capacity leads to the incorrect and impractical result due to the transfer of error to the analysis and the evaluation on highway system. The traffic accident which reduces the capacity of road temporarily generates unpredictable congestion, causing difficulties in congestion management. Therefore, this research aims on the measurement of the capacity of the road in accordance to the speed at the accident which is a basic factor when performing analysis. Based on the given approach, the behavior of a vehicle in highway is understood to develop model of critical gap and model of maximum flow rate with respect to the speed of traffic flow. With the established model, the reduction rate of the capacity in highway system at the accident is measured. The result shows that the capacity is reduced by 37% when the speed of the traffic flow is 40km/h. Although the developed model can't be verified clearly, this research has shown that the reduction rate of the capacity in road system has a close relation to the speed.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.47-56
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• 2001

본 논문에서는 단일 및 군말뚝의 수평변위를 예측하기 위하여 신경망 학습속도의 향상과 지역 최소점 수렴을 방지하는 Readjusting 기법을 적용한 인공신경망을 도입하였다. 이 인공신경망을 M-EBPNN 이라고 한다. M-EBPNN에 의한 결과는 낙동강 모래지반에서 단일 및 군말뚝에 대하여 수행한 일련의 모형실험결과와 비교하였으며, 그리고 신경망의 학습속도와 지역 최소점의 수렴성을 평가하기 위하여 오류 역전파 신경망(EBPNN)의 결과와도 비교 분석하였다. M-EBPNN의 적용성 검증을 위하여 200개의 모형실험결과들을 이용하였으며, 신경망의 구조는 EBPNN의 구조와 동일한 한 개의 입력층과 두 개의 은닉층 그리고 한 개의 출력층으로 구성되었다. 전체 데이터의 25%, 50% 그리고 75% 결과는 각각 신경망의 학습에 이용되었으며 학습에 이용하지 않은 데이터들은 예측에 이용되었다. 그리고, 신경망의 최적학습을 위하여 적합한 은닉층의 뉴런 수와 학습률은 EBPNN에서 결정한 값들을 본 신경망에 이용하였다. 해석결과들에 의하면, 동일한 학습패턴에서의 M-EBPNN이 학습 반복횟수는 EBPNN 보다 최고 88% 감소하였으며 지역 최소점에 수렴하는 현상은 거의 나타나지 않았다. 따라서, 인공신경망 모델이 수평하중을 받는 말뚝의 수평변위 예측에 적용될 수 있는 가능성을 보여 주었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.597-597
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• 2015

기후변화에 따른 홍수 위험도 증가와 태풍 및 집중호우의 증가는 도시지역의 홍수로 인한 피해가 커지고 있다. 실제로 최근 10년간 홍수로 인한 재산피해 및 인명피해는 해마다 늘고 있다. 이러한 홍수피해를 최소화 할 수 있는 도시지역 초단기 강우 예보 시스템 개발은 필수적이다. 그동안 기상레이더를 이용한 강우예측 모형은 국내외적으로 많이 개발이 되어 있지만, 위성을 이용한 단기간 강우예보모형은 많이 부족한 실정이다. 최근 국내 최초 기상위성의 발사로 위성을 이용한 강수관측 및 초단기 예보가 가능하게 되었다. 이러한 초단기 강우 예보 시스템의 기본예측모형인 구름이동벡터를 개발하기 위해서 본 연구에서 COMS 위성자료를 이용하였다. COMS 위성은 2011년 4월에 발사되어 현재 운영 중에 있다. COMS 위성 자료는 현재 일본 정지궤도 위성 MTSAT 위성자료와 달리 한반도 영역을 대상으로 적외채널 자료들을 8-15분 간격으로 수집 가능하여 집중호우 예보에 매우 유리하다. COMS 위성의 연속되는 위성 구름의 교차상관을 통해서 이동벡터를 산출하여 예측 모형을 산출하였다. 교차상관 기법은 연속되는 구름 자료에 대해서 두 윈도우 사의 상관계수의 최대치를 찾아냄으로써 구름의 이동방향과 이동속도를 산출하는 방법이다. 기 개발된 예측모형을 이용하여 한반도 지역의 이동벡터를 산출하였으며, 본 연구에서 산출된 구름이동벡터는 도시지역의 갑자기 발생하는 집중호우나 태풍의 초단기 예측의 기본 모형으로 탑재될 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.27-36
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• 2019

An accurate trajectory prediction is a key to the safe and efficient operations of aircraft. One way to improve trajectory prediction accuracy is to develop a model for aircraft ground speed prediction. This paper proposes a generative model for posterior aircraft ground speed prediction. The proposed method fits the Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM) to historical data of aircraft speed, and then the model is used to generates probabilistic speed profile of the aircraft. The performances of the proposed method are demonstrated with real traffic data in Incheon Flight Information Region(FIR).

• Water for future
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.219-233
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• 1995

A non-stationary multivariate model is selected in which the mean and variance of rainfall are not temporally or spatially constant. And the rainfall prediction system is constructed which uses the recursive estimation algorithm, Kalman filter, to estimate system states and parameters of rainfall model simulataneously. The on-line, real-time, multivariate short-term, rainfall prediction for multi-stations and lead-times is carried out through the estimation of non-stationary mean and variance by the storm counter method, the normalized residual covariance and rainfall speed. The results of rainfall prediction system model agree with those generated by non-stationary multivariate model. The longer the lead time is, the larger the root mean square error becomes and the further the model efficiency decreases form 1. Thus, the accuracy of the rainfall prediction decreases as the lead time gets longer. Also it shows that the mean obtained by storm counter method constitutes the most significant part of the rainfall structure.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.403-413
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• 2020

A mathematical model comprised with eight simultaneous quasi-linear partial differential equations was suggested to provide optimal chlorination strategy. Upstream weighted finite element method was employed to construct multidimensional numerical code. The code was verified against measured concentrations in three type of reactors. Boundary conditions and reaction rate were calibrated for the sixteen cases of experimental results to regenerate the measured values. Eight reaction rate coefficients were estimated from the modeling result. The reaction rate coefficients were expressed in terms of pH and temperature. Automatic optimal algorithm was invented to estimate the reaction rate coefficients by minimizing the sum of squares of the numerical errors and combined with the model. In order to minimize the concentration of chlorine and pollutants at the final usage sites, a real-time predictive control system is imperative which can predict the water quality variables from the chlorine disinfection process at the water purification plant to the customer by means of a model and operate the disinfection process according to the influent water quality. This model can be used to build such a system in water treatment plants.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.127-136
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• 2003

Road safety is defined under the minimum design standard and design examination process is consisted of the standard according to current road design. However, road safety in practical way is correlative to not only all element of roads but also road shape, such as, between straight line and curved line and between curved lines. Also. it is related to alignments such as horizontal alignment and vertical alignment, and cross section. That is, the practical road design should be examined in both sides of 3 dimension and consecutiveness (consistency) as the actual road is a 3 - dimensional successive object. The paper presents a concept for acceleration to evaluate consistency of road considering actual road shape on 3-dimension. Acceleration of vehicle is influential to road consistency based on running state of vehicles and state of drivers. The magnitude of acceleration. especially, is a quite influential element to drivers. Based on above, the acceleration on each point on 3-D road can be calculated and then displacement can be done. Computation of acceleration means total calculation on each axis. Speed profile refers to “Development of a safety evaluation model for highway horizontal alignment based on running speed(Jeong, Jun-Hwa, 2001)” and then acceleration can be calculated by using the speed pronto. According to literature review, definition of acceleration on 3-D and g-g-g diagram are established. For example, as a result of the evaluation, if the acceleration is out of range, the road is out of consistency. The paper shows calculation for change of acceleration on imaginary road under minimum design standard and the change tried to be applied to consistency. However accurate acceleration is not shown because the speed forecasting model is limited and the paper did not consider state of vehicles (suspension, tires and model of vehicles). If speed pronto is defined exactly, acceleration is calculated on all road shapes, such as. compound curve and clothoid curve. and then it is appled to consistency evaluation. Unfortunately, speed forecasting model on 3 -D road and on compound curves have rarely presented. Speed forecasting model and speed profile model need to be established and standard of consistency evaluation need to developed and verified by experimental vehicles.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.147-157
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• 2018

Since Google launched a prediction service for influenza-like illness(ILI), studies on ILI prediction based on web search data have proliferated worldwide. In this regard, this study aims to build short-term predictive models for ILI in Korea using ILI and web search data and measure the performance of the said models. In these proposed ILI predictive models specific to Korea, ILI surveillance data of Korea CDC and Korean web search data of Google and Naver were used along with the ARIMA model. Model 1 used only ILI data. Models 2 and 3 added Google and Naver search data to the data of Model 1, respectively. Model 4 included a common query used in Models 2 and 3 in addition to the data used in Model 1. In the training period, the goodness of fit of all predictive models was higher than 95% ($R^2$). In predictive periods 1 and 2, Model 1 yielded the best predictions (99.98% and 96.94%, respectively). Models 3(a), 4(b), and 4(c) achieved stable predictability higher than 90% in all predictive periods, but their performances were not better than that of Model 1. The proposed models that yielded accurate and stable predictions can be applied to early warning systems for the influenza pandemic in Korea, with supplementary studies on improving their performance.