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The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

Product Evaluation Criteria Extraction through Online Review Analysis: Using LDA and k-Nearest Neighbor Approach (온라인 리뷰 분석을 통한 상품 평가 기준 추출: LDA 및 k-최근접 이웃 접근법을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Ji Hyeon;Jung, Sang Hyung;Kim, Jun Ho;Min, Eun Joo;Yeo, Un Yeong;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.97-117
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    • 2020
  • Product evaluation criteria is an indicator describing attributes or values of products, which enable users or manufacturers measure and understand the products. When companies analyze their products or compare them with competitors, appropriate criteria must be selected for objective evaluation. The criteria should show the features of products that consumers considered when they purchased, used and evaluated the products. However, current evaluation criteria do not reflect different consumers' opinion from product to product. Previous studies tried to used online reviews from e-commerce sites that reflect consumer opinions to extract the features and topics of products and use them as evaluation criteria. However, there is still a limit that they produce irrelevant criteria to products due to extracted or improper words are not refined. To overcome this limitation, this research suggests LDA-k-NN model which extracts possible criteria words from online reviews by using LDA and refines them with k-nearest neighbor. Proposed approach starts with preparation phase, which is constructed with 6 steps. At first, it collects review data from e-commerce websites. Most e-commerce websites classify their selling items by high-level, middle-level, and low-level categories. Review data for preparation phase are gathered from each middle-level category and collapsed later, which is to present single high-level category. Next, nouns, adjectives, adverbs, and verbs are extracted from reviews by getting part of speech information using morpheme analysis module. After preprocessing, words per each topic from review are shown with LDA and only nouns in topic words are chosen as potential words for criteria. Then, words are tagged based on possibility of criteria for each middle-level category. Next, every tagged word is vectorized by pre-trained word embedding model. Finally, k-nearest neighbor case-based approach is used to classify each word with tags. After setting up preparation phase, criteria extraction phase is conducted with low-level categories. This phase starts with crawling reviews in the corresponding low-level category. Same preprocessing as preparation phase is conducted using morpheme analysis module and LDA. Possible criteria words are extracted by getting nouns from the data and vectorized by pre-trained word embedding model. Finally, evaluation criteria are extracted by refining possible criteria words using k-nearest neighbor approach and reference proportion of each word in the words set. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, an experiment was conducted with review on '11st', one of the biggest e-commerce companies in Korea. Review data were from 'Electronics/Digital' section, one of high-level categories in 11st. For performance evaluation of suggested model, three other models were used for comparing with the suggested model; actual criteria of 11st, a model that extracts nouns by morpheme analysis module and refines them according to word frequency, and a model that extracts nouns from LDA topics and refines them by word frequency. The performance evaluation was set to predict evaluation criteria of 10 low-level categories with the suggested model and 3 models above. Criteria words extracted from each model were combined into a single words set and it was used for survey questionnaires. In the survey, respondents chose every item they consider as appropriate criteria for each category. Each model got its score when chosen words were extracted from that model. The suggested model had higher scores than other models in 8 out of 10 low-level categories. By conducting paired t-tests on scores of each model, we confirmed that the suggested model shows better performance in 26 tests out of 30. In addition, the suggested model was the best model in terms of accuracy. This research proposes evaluation criteria extracting method that combines topic extraction using LDA and refinement with k-nearest neighbor approach. This method overcomes the limits of previous dictionary-based models and frequency-based refinement models. This study can contribute to improve review analysis for deriving business insights in e-commerce market.

Extension Method of Association Rules Using Social Network Analysis (사회연결망 분석을 활용한 연관규칙 확장기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2017
  • Recommender systems based on association rule mining significantly contribute to seller's sales by reducing consumers' time to search for products that they want. Recommendations based on the frequency of transactions such as orders can effectively screen out the products that are statistically marketable among multiple products. A product with a high possibility of sales, however, can be omitted from the recommendation if it records insufficient number of transactions at the beginning of the sale. Products missing from the associated recommendations may lose the chance of exposure to consumers, which leads to a decline in the number of transactions. In turn, diminished transactions may create a vicious circle of lost opportunity to be recommended. Thus, initial sales are likely to remain stagnant for a certain period of time. Products that are susceptible to fashion or seasonality, such as clothing, may be greatly affected. This study was aimed at expanding association rules to include into the list of recommendations those products whose initial trading frequency of transactions is low despite the possibility of high sales. The particular purpose is to predict the strength of the direct connection of two unconnected items through the properties of the paths located between them. An association between two items revealed in transactions can be interpreted as the interaction between them, which can be expressed as a link in a social network whose nodes are items. The first step calculates the centralities of the nodes in the middle of the paths that indirectly connect the two nodes without direct connection. The next step identifies the number of the paths and the shortest among them. These extracts are used as independent variables in the regression analysis to predict future connection strength between the nodes. The strength of the connection between the two nodes of the model, which is defined by the number of nodes between the two nodes, is measured after a certain period of time. The regression analysis results confirm that the number of paths between the two products, the distance of the shortest path, and the number of neighboring items connected to the products are significantly related to their potential strength. This study used actual order transaction data collected for three months from February to April in 2016 from an online commerce company. To reduce the complexity of analytics as the scale of the network grows, the analysis was performed only on miscellaneous goods. Two consecutively purchased items were chosen from each customer's transactions to obtain a pair of antecedent and consequent, which secures a link needed for constituting a social network. The direction of the link was determined in the order in which the goods were purchased. Except for the last ten days of the data collection period, the social network of associated items was built for the extraction of independent variables. The model predicts the number of links to be connected in the next ten days from the explanatory variables. Of the 5,711 previously unconnected links, 611 were newly connected for the last ten days. Through experiments, the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictions. Of the 571 links that the proposed model predicts, 269 were confirmed to have been connected. This is 4.4 times more than the average of 61, which can be found without any prediction model. This study is expected to be useful regarding industries whose new products launch quickly with short life cycles, since their exposure time is critical. Also, it can be used to detect diseases that are rarely found in the early stages of medical treatment because of the low incidence of outbreaks. Since the complexity of the social networking analysis is sensitive to the number of nodes and links that make up the network, this study was conducted in a particular category of miscellaneous goods. Future research should consider that this condition may limit the opportunity to detect unexpected associations between products belonging to different categories of classification.

Image Quality Evaluation of CsI:Tl and Gd2O2S Detectors in the Indirect-Conversion DR System (간접변환방식 DR장비에서 CsI:Tl과 Gd2O2S의 검출기 화질 평가)

  • Kong, Changgi;Choi, Namgil;Jung, Myoyoung;Song, Jongnam;Kim, Wook;Han, Jaebok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the features of CsI:Tl and $Gd_2O_2S$ detectors with an indirect conversion method using phantom in the DR (digital radiography) system by obtaining images of thick chest phantom, medium thickness thigh phantom, and thin hand phantom and by analyzing the SNR and CNR. As a result of measuring the SNR and CNR according to the thickness change of the subject, the SNR and CNR were higher in CsI:Tl detector than in $Gd_2O_2S$ detector when the medium thickness thigh phantom and thin hand phantom were scanned. However, when the thick chest phantom was used, for the SNR at 80~125 kVp and the CNR at 80~110 kVp in the $Gd_2O_2S$ detector, the values were higher than those of CsI:Tl detector. The SNR and CNR both increased as the tube voltage increased. The SNR and CNR of CsI:Tl detector in the medium thickness thigh phantom increased at 40~50 kVp and decreased as the tube voltage increased. The SNR and CNR of $Gd_2O_2S$ detector increased at 40~60 kVp and decreased as the tube voltage increased. The SNR and CNR of CsI:Tl detctor in the thin hand phantom decreased at the low tube voltage and increased as the tube voltage increased, but they decreased again at 100~110 kVp, while the SNR and CNR of $Gd_2O_2S$ detector were found to decrease as the tube voltage increased. The MTF of CsI:Tl detector was 6.02~90.90% higher than that of $Gd_2O_2S$ detector at 0.5~3 lp/mm. The DQE of CsI:Tl detector was 66.67~233.33% higher than that of $Gd_2O_2S$ detector. In conclusion, although the values of CsI:Tl detector were higher than those of $Gd_2O_2S$ detector in the comparison of MTF and DQE, the cheaper $Gd_2O_2S$ detector had higher SNR and CNR than the expensive CsI:Tl detector at a certain tube voltage range in the thick check phantom. At chest X-ray, if the $Gd_2O_2S$ detector is used rather than the CsI:Tl detector, chest images with excellent quality can be obtained, which will be useful for examination. Moreover, price/performance should be considered when determining the detector type from the viewpoint of the user.

A Novel in Vitro Method for the Metabolism Studies of Radiotracers Using Mouse Liver S9 Fraction (생쥐 간 S9 분획을 이용한 방사성추적자 대사물질의 새로운 체외 측정방법)

  • Ryu, Eun-Kyoung;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Yoon;Choi, Yong;Lee, Kyung-Han;Kim, Byung-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.325-329
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: Usefulness of mouse liver S9 fraction was evaluated for the measurement of the metabolites in the in vitro metabolism study of $^{18}F$-labeled radiotracers. Materials and Methods: Mouse liver S9 fraction was isolated at au early step in the course of microsome preparation. The in vitro metabolism studies were tarried out by incubating a mixture containing the radiotracer, S9 fraction and NADPH at $37^{\ciirc}C$, and an aliquot of the mixture was analyzed at the indicated time points by radio-TLC. Metabolic defluorination was further confirmed by the incubation with calcium phosphate, a bone mimic. Results: The radiotracer $[^{18}F]1$ underwent metabolic defluorination within 15 min, which was consistent with the results of the in vivo method and the in vitro method using microsome. Radiotracer $[^{18}F]2$ was metabolized to three metabolites including $4-[^{18}F]fluorobenzoic$ acid within 60 min. It is likely that the one of these metabolites at the origin of radio-TLC was identical with the one that obtained from the in vivo and in vitro (microsome) method. Compared with the in vitro method using microsome, the method using S9 fraction gave a similar pattern of the metabolites but with a different ratio, which can be explained by the presence of cytosol in the S9 fraction. Conclusion: These results suggest that the findings of the in vitro metabolism studies using S9 fraction can reflect the in vivo metabolism of novel radiotracers in the liver. Moreover, this method can be used as a tool to determine metabolic defluorination along with calcium phosphate absorption method.

A Survey on Physical Complaints Related with Farmers' Syndrome of Vinylhouse and Non-vinylhouse Farmers (비닐하우스 재배농민과 일반농민의 농부증 관련 신체증상 호소율 조사)

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Park, Jung-Han;Kim, Doo-Hie
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.2 s.46
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    • pp.258-273
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    • 1994
  • To compare the physical complaints of vinylhouse farmers with those of non-vinylhouse farmers, a personal interviews on 250 vinylhouse and 142 non-vinylhouse farmers were conducted in Sungjoo county in Kyungpook province selected by a random sampling from July 5 to July 10, 1993. Blood pressure of the subjects was also measured. Vinylhouse farmers had a higher average age, larger family size, shorter experience of farming, more working hours per day and working days per year and higher annual income than the non-vinylhouse farmers. The frequency of pesticide spray of the vinylhouse farmers was 3.4 times on the average in June 1993 as compared with 2.0 times of non-vinylhouse farmers, and 16.7 times for the vinylhouse farmers during the last one year while it was 8.3 times for the non-vinylhouse farmers in the same period. While 39.6% of vinylhouse farmers experienced pesticide intoxication symptoms such as headache, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, itching, and skin irritation, etc. during the month of June, 25.4% of non-vinylhouse farmers experienced such symptoms. The most frequent symptoms among eight symptoms that constitute the farmers' syndrome were lumbago, numbness of hand or foot, shoulder pain and dizziness regardless of sex and type of farming. Prevalence of the farmers' syndrome in male and female among vinylhouse farmers were 22.1%, 43.4%, respectively, and the prevalence in non-vinylhouse farmers was 23.2% for male and 50.7% for female. There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of farmers' syndrome between vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers. However, the prevalence in female was about 2 times higher than that of male. When the effects of other factors were adjusted by multiple logistic regression for farmers' syndrome, the prevalence in female was 3.0 times higher than that of male. The prevalence of farmers' syndrome was increased as the age of farmers increased in both vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers, and adjusted odds ratio of farmers' syndrome increased by 3% as the age increased by 1 year. Adjusted odds ratio for Farmers' syndrome in farmers who experienced pesticide intoxication during the month of June was 3.1 times higher than that of farmers who did not have such experience. While the prevalence of hypertension in male and female non-vinylhouse farmers were 22.4%, 13.7%, respectively, the prevalence in vinylhouse farmers were 13.5% for male and 12.0% for female. However, there was no association between farmers' syndrome and hypertension. It was found in this study that the vinylhouse farmers are at a high risk of pesticide intoxication, which is associated with tile common physical complaints. To reduce such risk it is necessary to develop farming methods which do not require the pesticide or may use less pesticide, a safer method of pesticide spraying, and the protective equipments which can be worn at a high temperature and have a better protective effect. Also education of farmers for the correct methods of ventilation after pesticide spraying in the vinylhouse and wearing the protective equipments may be considered as a supportive method. Since inappropriate posture at work and intensive labor may cause farmers' syndrome, it is recommended to develop farming tools which reduce physical burden and take a rest and exercise periodically during work. It is necessary to strengthen the hypertension management program of the Kyungpook province, because the prevalence of hypertension was as high as about 15%.

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Overview of Utilization of Four-wheel Tractor in Korea(I) -Ownership and Annual Use by Different Farm Groups- (농용(農用)트랙터 이용(利用)에 관(關)한 조사연구(調査硏究)(I) -경영형태별(經營形態別) 농작업이용실태분석(農作業利用實態分析)-)

  • Park, Ho Seok;Kim, Kyong Su;Lee, Yong Kook;Han, Sung Kum
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.20-32
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    • 1982
  • This survey was conducted to investigate the present status of farm tractor utilization for obtaining a basic reference to the establishment of the government's agricultural mechanization strategies. Thirty two counties from the eight provinces except Jeju were covered in this study. From these selected areas, 433 sample farms having farm tractor were taken to obtain the general informations by the enquete, and 93 sample farms among them to investigate the status of daily tractor use in the year of 1980. The analyzed results are summarized as follows: 1. Farm tractors owned by the rice-oriented farms holds 71.5 percent of the total number of tractors the livestock-oriented farms 17.0 percent, and the orchard-oriented farms 7.0 percent. Among the farm tractors 64.3 percent was a large size (46ps) and 35.7 percent a small size(19~23ps). 2. Most of the tractors surveyed were equipped with the essential attachments such as plow and rotavator. About 18 percent of the tractor owners had no trailer, which seemed too high considering the large percentage of tractor use for transportation. The availability of other attachments was very low except a grader on the rice-oriented farms and a hay harvester and a front loader on the livestock-oriented farms. 3. The average size of farm was 3.9 hectare for the rice-oriented farms, 13.9 hectare for the livestock-oriented farms and 7.4 hectare for the orchard-oriented farms. It was obious that the average farm size of was too small compared to the theoretical machine capacity of the tractors. 4. About 70 percent of the tractor operators were in the age of twenties and thirties. About 90 percent of them had an educational level of middle school graduate or above even though their technical level was very low. 5. Any particular problem in tractor use was not found in this survey. From the farmer's preference for purchasing a new tractor, however, it is estimated the demand on a 20-30ps tractor will be more increased. 6. The average annual use of tractor was of about 100 days or 400 hours. It appeared that the rice-oriented farms used most with 412.4 hours per year, and followed by the livestock-oriented farms with 403.6 hours, the orchard oriented farms with 377.7 hours. 7. Among the total hours of tractor use, 47.3 percent was for transportation, and 41.6 percent was for plowing and rotary tillage. The largest portion of the annual tractor use was taken by transportation on the livestock-oriented farms, by land preperation on the rice-oriented farms, and by loading and chemical spraying on the orchard-oriented farms. 8. The hours of tractor use had a peak in May. The hours of use for own farm was remarkably different among the different farm oriented, but there was no considerable difference between the too different sizes of tractor. 9. The hours of tractor use decreased as the age of the operator or the educational level increased. The reason might be that the operators who had a high educational level or were older had a tendency of disliking custom works. 10. The average custom use of tractor was 171.3 hours per year, and the ratio of custom work was 63.7 percent on the rice-oriented farms, 31.7 percent on the livestock-oriented farms and 22.4 percent on the orchard-oriented farms. Among the custom works, the most popular one was the grader leveling. 11. The charge on custom work was about 40,000 Won per hectare for plowing and rotary tillage, and it was the most expensive in the southeastern region, and next followed by the southwestern region. 12. The average plowing capacity of the small tractor was 7.8 hours per hectare in the paddy field, and that of the large tractors was 4.3 hours per hectare. The average rotary-tilling capacities of the small and the large tractors were 6.5 and 4.3 hours per hectare, in the paddy field respectively.

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SKU recommender system for retail stores that carry identical brands using collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering (협업 필터링 및 하이브리드 필터링을 이용한 동종 브랜드 판매 매장간(間) 취급 SKU 추천 시스템)

  • Joe, Denis Yongmin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.77-110
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the diversification and individualization of consumption patterns through the web and mobile devices based on the Internet have been rapid. As this happens, the efficient operation of the offline store, which is a traditional distribution channel, has become more important. In order to raise both the sales and profits of stores, stores need to supply and sell the most attractive products to consumers in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of research on which SKUs, out of many products, can increase sales probability and reduce inventory costs. In particular, if a company sells products through multiple in-store stores across multiple locations, it would be helpful to increase sales and profitability of stores if SKUs appealing to customers are recommended. In this study, the recommender system (recommender system such as collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering), which has been used for personalization recommendation, is suggested by SKU recommendation method of a store unit of a distribution company that handles a homogeneous brand through a plurality of sales stores by country and region. We calculated the similarity of each store by using the purchase data of each store's handling items, filtering the collaboration according to the sales history of each store by each SKU, and finally recommending the individual SKU to the store. In addition, the store is classified into four clusters through PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and cluster analysis (Clustering) using the store profile data. The recommendation system is implemented by the hybrid filtering method that applies the collaborative filtering in each cluster and measured the performance of both methods based on actual sales data. Most of the existing recommendation systems have been studied by recommending items such as movies and music to the users. In practice, industrial applications have also become popular. In the meantime, there has been little research on recommending SKUs for each store by applying these recommendation systems, which have been mainly dealt with in the field of personalization services, to the store units of distributors handling similar brands. If the recommendation method of the existing recommendation methodology was 'the individual field', this study expanded the scope of the store beyond the individual domain through a plurality of sales stores by country and region and dealt with the store unit of the distribution company handling the same brand SKU while suggesting a recommendation method. In addition, if the existing recommendation system is limited to online, it is recommended to apply the data mining technique to develop an algorithm suitable for expanding to the store area rather than expanding the utilization range offline and analyzing based on the existing individual. The significance of the results of this study is that the personalization recommendation algorithm is applied to a plurality of sales outlets handling the same brand. A meaningful result is derived and a concrete methodology that can be constructed and used as a system for actual companies is proposed. It is also meaningful that this is the first attempt to expand the research area of the academic field related to the existing recommendation system, which was focused on the personalization domain, to a sales store of a company handling the same brand. From 05 to 03 in 2014, the number of stores' sales volume of the top 100 SKUs are limited to 52 SKUs by collaborative filtering and the hybrid filtering method SKU recommended. We compared the performance of the two recommendation methods by totaling the sales results. The reason for comparing the two recommendation methods is that the recommendation method of this study is defined as the reference model in which offline collaborative filtering is applied to demonstrate higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The results of this model are compared with the Hybrid filtering method, which is a model that reflects the characteristics of the offline store view. The proposed method showed a higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The proposed method was proved by using actual sales data of large Korean apparel companies. In this study, we propose a method to extend the recommendation system of the individual level to the group level and to efficiently approach it. In addition to the theoretical framework, which is of great value.