• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형 결합

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Design and Dose Distribution of Docking Applicator for an Intraoperative Radiation Therapy (수술중 방사선치료를 위한 조립형 조사기구의 제작과 선량 분포)

  • Chu, Sung-Sil;Kim, Gwi-Eon;Loh, John-Kyu
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 1991
  • A docking intraoperative electron beam applicator system, which is easily docking in the collimator for a linear accelerator after setting a sterilized transparent cone on the tumor bearing area in the operation room, has been designed to optimize dose distribution and to improve the efficiency of radiation treatment method with linear accelerator. This applicator system consisted of collimator holder with shielded metals and docking cone with transparent acrylic cylinder, A number of technical innovations have been used in the design of this system, this dooking cone gives a improving latral dose coverage at therapeutic volume. The position of $90\%$ isodose curve under suface of 8 cm diameter cone was extended $4\sim7$ mm at 12 MeV electron and the isodose measurements beneath the cone wall showed hot spots as great as $106\%$ for acrylic cone. The leakage radiation dose to tissues outside the cone wall was reduced as $3\sim5\%$ of output dose. A comprehensive set of dosimetric characteristics of the intraoperative radiation therapy applicator system is presented.

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Remediation for Gasoline Contaminated Soils with SVE (soil vapor extraction) Including a Post-treatment System of Extraction Gases (배출가스의 후처리 공정을 포함한 토양증기추출법을 이용한 가솔린 오염 토양 복원)

  • 이민희;강현민;이병헌;빈정인
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.28-40
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    • 2004
  • Box experiments were performed to evaluate the removal efficiency of SVE (soil vapor extraction) for gasoline in soil. An activated carbon sorption tower and a biofilter were operated as post-treatment processes to remove VOCs extracted from extraction wells of SVE. An acrylic resin box (65 cm${\times}$20 cm${\times}$30 cm) was used to make artificial soil layers and two injection wells and one extraction well were built for SVE process in the box. Gases from extraction wells flew into the activated carbon sorption tower or the biofilter. Gasoline concentrations of VOCs emitted from the extraction well were compared with those after post treatments. More than 92% of initial gasoline mass in soil were removed by SVE within few days, suggesting that SVE is very available to remove VOCs from contaminated soils. To treat VOCs from extraction wells of SVE, an activated carbon sorption tower and a biofilter were attached to SVE process and their gasoline removal efficiencies were measured. These post treatment systems lowered gasoline concentrations to below 1.0 ppm within few days. Average remediation efficiency was 98% of gasoline for the activated carbon sorption tower and 84.1% for the biofilter. The maximum removal capacity of a biofilter was 10.7 g/L/hr, which was ten times higher than general biofilter removal capacity. Results from the study suggest that the activated carbon sorption tower and the biofilter would be available for the post treatment process to remove VOCs generated from SVE process.

A Study on Visitor Motivation and Satisfaction of Urban Open Space - In the Case of Waterfront Open Space in Seoul - (도시 오픈스페이스 방문동기 및 만족도 연구 - 서울시 하천변 오픈스페이스를 중심으로 -)

  • Zoh, Kyung-Jin;Kim, Yong-Gook;Kim, Young-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2014
  • The functions of urban open space, which embraces community revitalization, are diverse. It is the means of public healthcare, learning centers for children, hub of arts and cultural programs, as well as promoter of urban tourism. However, in-depth discourse and research on the topic of urban open spaces has been limited so far. Hence, this study aims to investigate the motivations and satisfaction of visitation based on four representative waterfront open space in Seoul; Cheongyecheon Waterfront, Seoul Forest Park, Seonyudo Park and Banpo Hangang Park. The methods of study are literature review, observation investigation, and questionnaire survey. The findings are analyzed through the Exploratory Factor Analysis, Reliability Analysis, ANOVA Analysis and Regression Analysis by SPSS 18.0. The results of the study are as follows. First, urban waterfront open spaces in Seoul has 5 factors of visitor motivation; community amenity, nature access, cultural and educational assets, aesthetic enjoyment, and lastly means of escape. Second, factors of recognizing urban waterfront open spaces as community amenity and nature access indicate meaningful differences in visitor's perception by spatial characteristics. Third, distances between the destination and the visitor's residence influence significantly their perceived motivation. Close-range visitors perceived nature access as a principal factor, whilst medium to long-range visitors perceived visitation for aesthetic purposes more importantly. Lastly, the will to escape was shown as the influential factor in visitor satisfaction. Visiting open spaces for the enjoyment of nature and aesthetic purposes were factors that also closely relate to visitor satisfaction. In addition, it was found that there are different visitor motivations that influence visitor satisfaction in accordance with the spatial characteristics of each open space. In summary, it can be said that urban waterfront open space is a hybrid space connected to various types of urban contents beyond daily experiences. It was found that several visitor motivations including community development, design aesthetics, education and culture, entertainment, enjoyment of natural landscape, and relaxation, affect the overall satisfaction of the visiting experience. It is anticipated that the results of the study will be used by the local government in setting up strategies for the creation and management of successful urban waterfront open space, and for those involved in planning and design act as a starting point for spatial programming and amenities arrangement in accordance to the city's tourism and urban marketing approach.

Verification of Skin Dose in Tomotherapy Using the Developed Phantom for Image Based Radiation Treatment System (영상 기반 치료 장비용 팬톰을 이용한 토모테라피 피부 선량 검증)

  • Park, Ji-Yeon;Chang, Ji-Na;Oh, Seung-Jong;Kang, Dae-Gyu;Jung, Won-Gyun;Lee, Jeong-Woo;Jang, Hong-Suk;Kim, Hoi-Nam;Park, Hae-Jin;Kim, Sung-Hwan;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2009
  • Radiation treatment for skin cancer has recently increased in tomotherapy. It was reported that required dose could be delivered with homogeneous dose distribution to the target without field matching using electron and photon beam. Therapeutic beam of tomotherapy, however, has several different physical characteristic and irradiation of helical beam is involved in the mechanically dynamic factors. Thus verification of skin dose is requisite using independent tools with additional verification method. Modified phantom for dose measurement was developed and skin dose verification was performed using inserted thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and GafChromic EBT films. As the homogeneous dose was delivered to the region including surface and 6 mm depth, measured dose using films showed about average 2% lower dose than calculated one in treatment planning system. Region indicating about 14% higher and lower absorbed dose was verified on measured dose distribution. Uniformity of dose distribution on films decreased as compared with that of calculated results. Dose variation affected by inhomogeneous material, Teflon, little showed. In regard to the measured dose and its distribution in tomotherapy, verification of skin dose through measurement is required before the radiation treatment for the target located at the curved surface or superficial depth.

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Extra Dose Measurement of Differential Slice Thickness of MVCT Image with Helical Tomotherapy (토모테라피 치료 시 MVCT Image의 Slice Thickness 차이에 따른 선량 비교)

  • Lee, Byungkoo;Kang, Suman
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.145-149
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    • 2013
  • Helical Tomotherapy is an innovative means of delivering intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) using a device that merges features of a linear accelerator and helical computed tomography (CT) scanner. Hereat, during helical tomotherapy process, megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) image are usually used for guiding the precise set-up of patient before/after treatment delivery. But which would certainly increase the total dose for patients, this study was to investigate the imaging dose of MVCT using the cylindrical "Cheese" phantom on a tomotherapy machine. A set of cylindrical "Cheese" phantom was adopted for scanning with respectively pitch value (1, 2, 3 mm) with same number slice (10 slice), same length (approximately 9 cm) and phantom set-ups on the couch of tomotherapy system. The average MVCT imaging dose were measured using A1SL ion chamber inserted in the phantom with preset geometry. The MVCT scanning average dose for the cylindrical "Cheese" phantom was 2.24 cGy, 1.02 cGy, 0.81 cGy during respectively pitch value (pitch 1, 2, 3 mm) with same number slice (10 slice), and same length's average dose was 2.47 cGy, 1.28 cGy, 0.88 cGy respectively (pitch 1, 2, 3 mm). Two major parameters, the assigned pitch numbers and scanning length, where the most important impacts to the dose variation. The MVCT dose was inversely proportional to the CT pitch value. The results may provide a reliable guidance for proper planning design of the scanning region, which is valuable to help minimize the extra dose to patient. Questionnaires were distributed to Radiology departments at hospitals with 300 sickbeds throughout the Pohang region of North Gyeongsang Province concerning awareness and performance levels of infection control. The investigation included measurements of the pollution levels of imaging equipment and assistive apparatuses in order to prepare a plan for the activation of prevention and management of hospital infections. The survey was designed to question respondents in regards to personal data, infection management prevention education, and infection management guidelines.

Modeling and Intelligent Control for Activated Sludge Process (활성슬러지 공정을 위한 모델링과 지능제어의 적용)

  • Cheon, Seong-pyo;Kim, Bongchul;Kim, Sungshin;Kim, Chang-Won;Kim, Sanghyun;Woo, Hae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.1905-1919
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    • 2000
  • The main motivation of this research is to develop an intelligent control strategy for Activated Sludge Process (ASP). ASP is a complex and nonlinear dynamic system because of the characteristic of wastewater, the change in influent flow rate, weather conditions, and etc. The mathematical model of ASP also includes uncertainties which are ignored or not considered by process engineer or controller designer. The ASP is generally controlled by a PID controller that consists of fixed proportional, integral, and derivative gain values. The PID gains are adjusted by the expert who has much experience in the ASP. The ASP model based on $Matlab^{(R)}5.3/Simulink^{(R)}3.0$ is developed in this paper. The performance of the model is tested by IWA(International Water Association) and COST(European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research) data that include steady-state results during 14 days. The advantage of the developed model is that the user can easily modify or change the controller by the help of the graphical user interface. The ASP model as a typical nonlinear system can be used to simulate and test the proposed controller for an educational purpose. Various control methods are applied to the ASP model and the control results are compared to apply the proposed intelligent control strategy to a real ASP. Three control methods are designed and tested: conventional PID controller, fuzzy logic control approach to modify setpoints, and fuzzy-PID control method. The proposed setpoints changer based on the fuzzy logic shows a better performance and robustness under disturbances. The objective function can be defined and included in the proposed control strategy to improve the effluent water quality and to reduce the operating cost in a real ASP.

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Evaluation of a Water-based Bolus Device for Radiotherapy to the Extremities in Kaposi's Sarcoma Patients (사지에 발병한 카포시육종의 방사선치료를 위한 물볼루스 기구의 유용성 고찰)

  • Ahn, Seung-Kwon;Kim, Yong-Bae;Lee, Ik-Jae;Song, Tae-Soo;Son, Dong-Min;Jang, Yung-Jae;Cho, Jung-Hee;Kim, Joo-Ho;Kim, Dong-Wook;Cho, Jae-Ho;Suh, Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.189-194
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: We designed a water-based bolus device for radiation therapy in Kaposi's sarcoma. This study evaluated the usefulness of this new device and compared it with the currently used rice-based bolus. Materials and Methods: We fashioned a polystyrene box and cut a hole in order to insert patient's extremities while the patient was in the supine position. We used a vacuum-vinyl based polymer to reduce water leakage. Next, we eliminated air using a vacuum pump and a vacuum valve to reduce the air gap between the water and extremities in the vacuum-vinyl box. We performed CT scans to evaluate the density difference of the fabricated water-based bolus device when the device in which the rice-based bolus was placed directly, the rice-based bolus with polymer-vinyl packed rice, and the water were all put in. We analyzed the density change with the air gap volume using a planning system. In addition, we measured the homogeneity and dose in the low-extremities phantom, attached to six TLD, and wrapped film exposed in parallel-opposite fields with the LINAC under the same conditions as the set-up of the CT-simulator. Results: The density value of the rice-based bolus with the rice put in directly was 14% lower than that of the water-based bolus. Moreover, the value of the other experiments in the rice-based bolus with the polymer-vinyl packed rice showed an 18% reduction in density. The analysis of the EDR2 film revealed that the water-based bolus shows a more homogeneous dose plan, which was superior by $4{\sim}4.4%$ to the rice-base bolus. The mean TLD readings of the rice-based bolus, with the rice put directly into the polystyrene box had a 3.4% higher density value. Moreover, the density value in the case of the rice-based bolus with polymer-vinyl packed rice had a 4.3% higher reading compared to the water-based bolus. Conclusion: Our custom-made water-based bolus device increases the accuracy of the set-up by confirming the treatment field. It also improves the accuracy of the therapy owing to the reduction of the air gap using a vacuum pump and a vacuum valve. This set-up represents a promising alternative device for delivering a homogenous dose to the target volume.

Hydrothermal Alteration around the Tofua Arc (TA) 25 Seamounts in Tonga Arc (통가열도 TA 25 해저산의 열수변질)

  • Cho, Hyen Goo;Kim, Dong-Ho;Koo, Hyo Jin;Um, In Kwon;Choi, Hunsoo
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.169-181
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    • 2014
  • Korea government has consistently investigated the development of economic mineral deposits in the Tofua volcanic arc, Tonga since 2008 for the secure of sea floor mineral resources. We studied the composition and distribution of minerals formed by hydrothermal activity around TA 25 seamounts of the Tofua volcanic arc, Lau Basin, Tonga, using X-ray diffraction analysis, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray fluorescence spectrometry, and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. We used 7 core samples and 9 surface sediment samples. Barite, sphalerite, and clinoclase are present in the most volcanic vent area. Gypsum, smectite, and kaolin mineral are distributed in vent A area, chalcopyrite, pyrite, smectite, and kaolin mineral are in vent B and C area, and gypsum, chalcopyrite, pyrite, and goethite are in vent D area. From the study of clay fraction, smectite and few kaolinite are detected in the most studied area except inner part of caldera, which suggest that argillic alteration are dominant in the volcanic vent areas. Various sulfide or arsenide minerals were found in the hydrothermal vent B, C, and D. The mineralogy and geochemistry suggest higher hydrothermal activities in volcanic vent B, C, and D compared to vent A and inner caldera area. Therefore higher probabilities of massive sulfide deposits may occur in hydrothermal vent B, C, and D.

Study of Iodide Adsorption on Organobentonite using X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (X-선 흡수분광기를 이용한 유기벤토나이트의 요오드 흡착연구)

  • Yoon, Ji-Hae;Ha, Ju-Young;Hwang, Jin-Yeon;Hwang, Byoung-Hoon;Gordon E. Brown, Jr.
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2009
  • The adsorption of iodide on untreated bentonite and bentonites modified with organic cation (i.e., hexadecylpyridinium chloride monohydrate ($HDP^+$)) was investigated, and the organobentonites were characterized using uptake measurements, ${\mu}$-XRD, and electrophoretic mobilities measurement. Uptake measurements indicate that bentonite has a high affinity for $HDP^+$. Our ${\mu}$-XRD study indicates that organobentonites significantly expanded in basal spacing and organic cations were substantially intercalated into the interlayer spaces of bentonite. The electrophoretic mobility indicates that organobentonite tht is modified with organic cations in excess of the CEC of bentonite is completely different from untreated bentonite in the surface charge distribution. We found significant differences in adsorption capacities of iodide depending on the bentonite properties as follows: iodide adsorption capacities were 439 mmol/kg for the bentonite modified with $HDP^+$ at an equivalent amount corresponding to 200% of the CEC of bentonite whereas no adsorption of iodide was observed for the untreated bentonite. The molecular environments of iodine adsorbed on organobentonites were further studied using I K-edge and $L_{III}$-edge x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). The X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) of iodine spectra from organobentonites was similar to that of KI reference solution. Linear combination fitting of EXAFS data suggests the fraction of iodine reacted with the organic compound increased with increasing loading of the organic compound on organobentonites. In this study, we observed significant differences in the adsorption environments of iodide depending on the modified property of bentonite and suggest that an organobentonite has potential as reactive barrier material around a nuclear waste repository containing anionic radioactive iodide.