• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.237-250
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• 2007

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.15
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• pp.117-151
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• 2000

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.26 no.12
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• pp.1800-1808
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• 2022

During the election period, many polling agencies survey and distribute the approval ratings for each candidate. In the past, public opinion was expressed through the Internet, mobile SNS, or community, although in the past, people had no choice but to survey the approval rating by relying on opinion polls. Therefore, if the public opinion expressed on the Internet is understood through natural language analysis, it is possible to determine the candidate's approval rate as accurately as the result of the opinion poll. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of inferring the approval rate of candidates during the election period by synthesizing the political comments of users through internet community posting data. In order to analyze the approval rate in the post, I would like to suggest a method for generating the model that has the highest correlation with the actual opinion poll by using the KoBert, KcBert, and KoELECTRA models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.153-162
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• 2012

We proposed a mixed-mode design with a landline survey and mobile survey as the solution for the problems of election opinion polls by the original telephone survey method, mostly with limited population coverage for young people not living at home and with lower efficiency in selecting valid voters. We numerically verified the applicability of the proposed dual frame survey by analyzing the preliminary opinion poll results of the Seoul mayor by-election of October 26 2011. This research achieved the result that relative standard errors were similar between a mobile RDD sample and landline RDD sample though the variance was bigger in the former. Though the combination of mobile RDD and landline RDD is not found to improve the forecast accuracy, it still is expected to have higher reliability for election polls by expanding the population coverage and compensating the weakness of each survey method.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.191-197
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• 2017

As individual opinions are expressed and discussed through SNS, SNS is used as a new basis to estimate the direction of public opinion. This change also appears in election. So many voters state their views through SNS, so that candidates utilize it as a new space for communication. In this paper, positive mention in SNS were collected and analysed in the course of the election of Korean 20th Congressman, to understand how the mention on election in SNS affects the result of election. This result was compared with the traditional survey on public opinion, to find out which one more corresponds to the result. In conclusion, mention in SNS coincide more with the result of elelction than the traditional survey.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2011

The purposes of the present study were to analyze correlation of vote behavior and attitude and vote intention in the pre-survey, and to investigate the efficient method of predicting the voting result from the pre-surveys. The previous attitude is measured by the support for the candidate, political self-confidence, self-efficacy and opinion on present issues. The vote intention is surveyed by the past election participation and degree of election interest. Real voting behavior is surveyed by the post enumeration, and the pre-survey and both post-survey are conducted to the same person to analyze the correlation of voting behavior and pre-survey. The real election participation is highly correlated with vote intention, election interest and past election participation. Almost respondents did not change the supporting candidate from the poll survey to the election vote. It is shown that the voting behavior at election of the nonrespondent of pre-survey can be predicted with the demographic charater and attitude of present issues.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.83-95
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• 1998

Statistical models are proposed for analyzing categorical data in the presence of missing observations or nonresponses which might occur in the sampling surveys and polls. As an illustration, we analyzed real polling data of the pre-presidential election in the USA, 1948, It had been predicted that Dewey would win the election. However, Truman won in the actual election.

• Survey Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.135-158
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• 2012

Korean telephone surveys have been based on landline telephone directory or RDD(Random Digit Dialing) method. These days, however, there has been an increase of the households with no landline, or households with the line but not willing to register in the directory. Moreover, it is hard to contact young people or office workers who are usually staying out of home in the daytime. Due to these issues above, the predictability of election polls gets weaker. Especially, low accessibility to those who stay out of home when the poll's done, results in predictions with positive inclination toward conservatism. A solution to resolve this problem is to contact respondents by using both mobile and landline phones-via landline phone to those who are at home and via mobile phone to those who are out of home in the daytime(Mixed Mode Survey, hereafter MMS). To conduct MMS, 1) we need to obtain the sampling frames for the landline and mobile surveys, and 2) we need to decide the proportion of sample size of both. In this paper, we propose a heuristic method for conducting MMS. The method uses RDD for the landline phone survey, and the access panel list for the mobile phone survey. The proportion of sample sizes between landline and mobile phones are determined based on the 'Lifestyle and Time Use Study' conducted by Statistics Korea. As a case study, 4 election polls were conducted in the periods of the special election for the mayor of Seoul on Oct 26th, 2011. From the initial 3 polls, reactions and responses regarding the issues raised during the survey period were appropriately covered, and the final poll showed a very close prediction to the real election result.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.31-53
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• 2002

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2019

Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.