• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.88 no.1
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• pp.117-123
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• 1999

Consumer surplus is to be a value concerning a time horizon. Especially it is very important how long time horizon would be chosen in contingent market. This study aimed to provide causes of difference recreation benefits through discount rate in many aspects. The data were collected by personal interviews with visitors in Songnisan National Park. The respondents answered yes or no, dichotomous choice, on recreation benefits according to a chosen time horizon, one year or five years. The probit model was used in the analysis. In order to avoid the truncation bias of upper bound, the median was chosen as the recreation benefits of visitor. As the result, the value was evaluated to be 16,569 Won for one year and 27,111 Won for five years. The discount rate is estimated 153% annually to coincide different recreation benefits. The reasons of the high discount rate were to be interpreted as following five types : (1)uncertainty of future consumption (2)increasing of probability of the substitution owing to increasing of time horizon (3)recognization of different time horizons (4) effect by the price ratio of goods and utility function (5) overestimation of the recreation benefits owing to a basic premium of payment vehicle.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.65-79
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• 1992

This study is concerned with the optimal design of two hinged steel arches with I cross sectional type and aimed at the exact analysis of the arches and the safe and economic design of structure. The analyzing method of arches which introduces the finite difference method considering the displacements of structure in analyzing process is used to eliminate the error of analysis and to determine the sectional force of structure. The optimizing problems of arches formulate with the objective functions and the constraints which take the sectional dimensions(B, D, $t_f$, $t_w$) as the design variables. The object functions are formulated as the total weight of arch and the constraints are derived by using the criteria with respect to the working stress, the minimum dimension of flange and web based on the part of steel bridge in the Korea standard code of road bridge and including the economic depth constraint of the I sectional type, the upper limit dimension of the depth of web and the lower limit dimension of the breadth of flange. The SUMT method using the modified Newton Raphson direction method is introduced to solve the formulated nonlinear programming problems which developed in this study and tested out throught the numerical examples. The developed optimal design programming of arch is tested out and examined throught the numerical examples for the various arches. And their results are compared and analyzed to examine the possibility of optimization, the applicablity, the convergency of this algorithm and with the results of numerical examples using the reference(30). The correlative equations between the optimal sectional areas and inertia moments are introduced from the various numerical optimal design results in this study.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.