• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.146-156
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• 2016

In this study, we developed a large fire forecasting system using critical weather conditions, such as strong winds and effective humidity. We incorporated information on forest type prior to large fires using an incident case study. The case study includes thirty-seven large fires covering more than 100 ha of damaged area over the last 20 years. Dangerous large fire regions were identified as areas of more than 30 ha of Korean red pine and the surrounding two kilometers. Large fires occur when wind speeds average 5.3 m/s with a maximum of 11.6 m/s and standard deviation of 2.5 m/s. Effective humidity for large fires average 30% with a minimum of 13% and standard deviation of 14.5%. In dangerous Korean red pine stand areas, the large fire 'Watch' level is issued when effective humidity is 30-45% for more than two days and average wind speed is 7-10 m/s. The 'Warning' level is issued when effective humidity is less than 30% for more than two days and average wind speed is more than 11 m/s. Therefore, from now on, the large fire forecasting system can be used effectively for forest fire prevention activities based on a selection and concentration strategy in dangerous large fire regions using severe weather conditions.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.65-65
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• 2011

도시의 확대와 산림의 개발을 통해 산불은 산지의 피해뿐만 아니라, 인접지에도 피해를 입히고 있다. 이는 일반적인 사례가 되어, 이에 대한 연구는 반드시 필요하다고 할 수 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 경상북도의 울진군, 봉화군, 경주시를 대상으로 산림에 인접한 시설물의 빈도와 거리를 분석하여, 산불 발생 시 대피 및 진화 기준을 제시하고자 하였다. 조사 결과, 도시형으로 선정한 경주시가 전체 시설빈도가 가장 높았으며, 산악형으로 분류한 봉화군이 가장 빈도가 낮았다. 가옥의 빈도가 가장 높은 것으로 조사되었으며, 봉화군이 축사의 빈도가 특히 높은 것으로 조사되었다. 산림인접시설물의 산림과의 평균거리분석결과 산악형의 시설물의 평균 산림 인접 거리가 가장 가까우며, 도시형인 경주시의 인접거리가 가장 먼 것으로 조사되었다. 특히, 산악형(봉화 군)은 인접 시설의 산림과의 평균 거리가 100m이내인 것으로 조사되었으며, 산불 발생시 큰 피해가 예상되는 가옥, 의료/복지시설, 주유소, 축사 등 전 시설물의 산림인접 100m 이내 비율도 가장 높은 것으로 조사되었다. 따라서, 산불 발생 시 인접지의 피해가능성이 높은 산림 이격 거리를 100m 이내로 가정할 경우, 봉화군의 경우 산불발생 시 피해가 클 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 연구를 보다 확대하여 향후 산불 발생에 대비한 지역단위 진화와 대피교범과 기준 제작으로 발전시키며, 인접지역 시설물에 대한 산림 위험 시설에 대한 정책수립의 근거로 삼아야 할 것으로 사료된다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.2 no.1 s.4
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• pp.161-167
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• 2002

Forest fire danger period in nine Provinces (Gangwondo, Kyonggido, Gyeongsangnamdo, Gyeongsangbukdo, Jeollanamdo, Jeollabukdo, Jejudo, Chungcheongnamdo, Chungcheongbukdo) has turned out to be similar to recognize whether there are some differences between each Provinces, we used correlation analysis with number of occurrence and damage area by an interval of ten-day period. Based on this analysis, there was significant numbers of occurrence at all areas wish serious burns except Gyeongsangnamdo and Jejudo Provinces. Since persuasive power is insufficient as danger period of forest fire applies equally to nine Provinces, statistical analysis using number of forest fire occurrence and burned area are executed. And then, a analysis of variance(ANOVA) test of significance by an interval of ten day period is carried out. As a result of this analysis, there showed significant at 1% level for number of occurrence except Jejudo, and is also showed significant at 1% level for burned area except Gangwondo and Chejudo. Through regional correlation analysis for danger period, we classified three parts of Middle region (Gangwondo, Kyonggido, Gyeongsangnamdo, Gyeongsangbukdo, Jeollabukdo, Chungcheongnamdo, Chungcheongbukdo) Southern region (Gyongsangnamdo, Jeollanamdo) and Jejudo region. With respect to forest fire occurrence time, Middle region showed from the middle of February to first of May that amounts to 81% of entire occurrence in this region, and Southern region begins with at the last of January to the middle of April covering 71%. In terms of forest fire burned areas, it appears at the middle of February to the first of May, occupying 98% in Middle region, and Southern region showed burned areas from the last of January to the middle of April amounting to 82% of total occurrences.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.296-304
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• 2017

In order to predict about forest fire behavior we constructed a database for combustion characteristic of forest fuels in Samcheok, Gangwon-do and prepared fire risk map and fire risk rating using GIS method in this study. For the mapping autoignition temperature, ignition time, flame duration time, total heat release and total smoke release are selected as the standardized parameters and the overall risk rating was made up of the ignition risk parameters(autoignition temperature, ignition time) and the spread risk parameters(flame duration time, total heat release, total smoke release). Forest fire risk was classified into 5 grades and lower grade of fire risk rating mean to correspond to more dangerous forest fire. As a result, the overall risk rating of Samcheok was classified into three grades from 1 to 3 and Nogok-myeon and Miro-myeon were turned out the most dangerous areas for forest fire. Because of the colony of pine and oak trees and the higher fire loads, the flame propagation will be carried out quickly in these areas.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.59-65
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk of the forest fire, considering the topography and the forest, for establishing disaster prevention measures of cultural heritage, Uireung, over in Cheonjang-mountain. To do that, we estimate the occurrence and spread of the forest fire over in Cheonjang-mountain through a forest fire probability model(logistic regression), using the space characteristic data($100m{\times}100m$). The factor, occurrence of the forest fire, are diameter class, southeast, southwest, south, coniferous, deciduous, and mixed forest. We assume the probability of the fire forest in each point as follow : [1+exp{-(-4.8081-(0.02453*diameter class)+(0.6608*southeast)+(0.507*southwest)+(0.7943*south)+(0.29498*coniferous forest)+(0.28897*deciduous forest)+(0.17788*mixed forest))}]$^{-1}$. To divide dangerous zone of the big forest fire, we make the basic materials for disaster prevention measures, through the map of coniferous forests, deciduous forests, and mixed forest. The damage of cultural heritage caused by a forest fire will be reduced through the effective preventive measures, by forecast a forest fire to using this study.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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• 2002.03b
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• pp.49-59
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• 2002

이 연구에서는 강원도 삼척시를 대상으로 산불취약지역 분석모델을 개발하고, 개발된 분석모델을 기반으로 산불취약지역을 표출하였으며, 이를 위한 전산프로그램을 개발하였다. 산불취약지역 공간분석자료로는 NGIS 사업을 통해 구축된 1/25천 축척의 수치지형도, 수치임상도 그리고 과거 산불발화위치자료를 사용하였다. 산불발화위치에 대한 공간적 분포특성(지형, 임상, 접근성)을 기반으로 모델을 설정하였으며, 공간분석은 간단하면서도 일반인들이 이해하기 쉬운 Conditional probability, Likelihood ratio 방법을 사용하였다. 그리고 각각의 모델에 대한 검증(cross validation)을 실시하였다. 모델 검증방법으로는 과거 산불발화위치자료를 발생시기에 따라 두 개의 그룹으로 나누어 하나는 예측을 위한 자료로 사용하고, 다른 하나는 검증을 위한 자료로 사용하였다. 모델별 예측성능은 prediction rate curve를 비교·분석하여 판단하였다. 삼척시를 대상으로 한 예측성능에서 Likelihood ratio 모델이 Conditional probability 모델보다 더 낳은 결과를 보였다. 산불취약지역 분석기술로 작성된 상세 산불취약지역지도와 현재 산림청에서 예보하고 있는 전국단위의 산불발생위험지수와 함께 상호보완적으로 사용한다면 산불취약지역에 대한 산불감시인력 및 감시시설의 효율적인 배치를 통하여 일선 시군 또는 읍면 산불예방업무의 효율성이 한층 더 증대될 것으로 기대된다.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.15-20
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• 2009

For the effective management of forest fire, understanding of regional forest fire patterns is needed. In this paper, forest fire ignition and spread characteristics were analyzed based on forest fire statistics. Fire occurrences, burned area, rate of spread, and burned area per fire between 1991 and 2007 were parameterized for the cluster analysis, which results were displayed using GIS to detect spatial patterns of forest fire. Administrative districts such as cities and counties were classified into 5 clusters by fire susceptibility. Metropolitan areas had fire characteristics that were infrequent, slow rate of spread, and small burned area. However, 4 cities and counties showing fast rate of spread, and large burned area, in the eastern regions of Taeback Mountain range, were the most susceptible areas to forest fire. The next vulnerable cities and counties were located in the West and South Coast area.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.189-204
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• 2018

This study has developed a forest fire occurrence probability model for inaccessible areas such as North Korea and Demilitarized Zone and we have developed a real-time forest fire danger rating system that can be used in fire-related works. There are limitations on the research that it is impossible to conduct site investigation for data acquisition and verification for forest fire weather index model and system development. To solve this problem, we estimated the fire spots in the areas where access is impossible by using MODIS satellite data with scientific basis. Using the past meteorological reanalysis data(5㎞ resolution) produced by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) on the extracted fires, the meteorological characteristics of the fires were extracted and made database. The meteorological factors extracted from the forest fire ignition points in the inaccessible areas are statistically correlated with the forest fire occurrence and the weather factors and the logistic regression model that can estimate the forest fires occurrence(fires 1 and non-fores 0). And used to calculate the forest fire weather index(FWI). The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models(p<0.01) strongly depends on maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, effective humidity and average wind speed. The logistic regression model constructed in this study showed a relatively high accuracy of 66%. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in Republic of Korea(ROK) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) for the prevention of forest fires.

• Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.412-415
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 개엽된 지표 식물이 건조된 낙엽층에 비해 수분함유량이 상대적으로 많은 것에 착안하여 피복율이 증가하고 개엽량이 많아짐에 따라 산불위험성이 낮아진다는 가정을 세워 열방출량 실험분석과 함께 화염높이 등을 비교, 평가하였다. 그 결과, 초본류의 피복율 및 개엽량이 증가할수록 열방출량이 비례적으로 감소하는 경향을 나타내었고 화염높이 또한 현저히 감소되는 결과를 나타내었다. 향후, 본 연구 결과를 바탕으로 봄철 순기별, 지역별 산림 식물의 개엽량을 모니터링하여 산불위험도 및 산불확산예측에 반영해야 될 것으로 판단된다.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.49-60
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• 2012

The change in fuel moisture in accordance with the number of days after rainfall is an important factor in predicting forest fire dangers and supporting forest fire rangers. Therefore, in order to clear up these forest fire occurrence conditions, forest fire danger levels for surface fuel 0.6 cm or lower, 0.6~3.0 cm, 3.0~6.0 cm, and 6.0 cm or above by fallen leaves layer, humus layer, soil layer, and diameter after rainfall of 5.0 mm and higher in accordance with tree density in 2008, 2009 Spring/Autumn Young Dong region have been analyzed. Research showed an approximate 17 % fuel moisture which is a dangerous forest fire occurrence level after 5 days from rainfall in medium-density areas and 3 days after rainfall in loose-density areas of Spring time in the fallen leaves layer. On the other hand, the humus layer showed a 40 % or higher fuel humidity even after 6 days from rainfall regardless of the season, while the upper and lower parts of the soil layer had a little change. In loose-density areas with 0.6 cm or less surface fuel per diameter in Spring time, the fuel humidity displayed a dangerous level in fire forest occurrence after 3 days, and 4days in medium-density areas, and for loose-density areas with 0.6~3.0 cm surface fuel per diameter in Autumn time it showed a dangerous level in forest fire occurrence after 3 days, and for medium-density areas, 5 days. In the case of 3.0~6.0 cm of fuel moisture per diameter in both Spring and Autumn times, even after 6 days, low and medium-density areas showed that they maintain fuel moisture and therefore the dangers of forest fires were very low, and in the case of 6.0 cm or higher, it showed 25 % or higher fuel moisture even after 6 days from rainfall regardless of the season.