• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.670-676
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• 2009

Bankruptcy of firms in Korea can cause distress of financial institutions because these institutions have disterssed bond. Accordingly, social and economical spill-over effects by these results are very big. Even after the difficult times of IMF crisis had ended, bankruptcy of information-based small-medium companies and venture firms listed on the KOSDAQ has been continued. In this context, this study developed and adopted failure prediction models for which discriminant analysis was used. Samples of this study was 81 firms respectively for both failed and non-failed firms listed on the KOSDAQ between the year of 2000 and 2007. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of classification of the model by years was $74.5%{\sim}76.5%$, and the accuracy of classification of the mean model was $69.6%{\sim}80.4%$. Among the models, the mean model of -one year, -two years, and -three years was highest in accuracy of classification (80.4%). Second, accuracy of prediction of final model adopted on validation samples showed 85% before one year of bankruptcy. The results of this study may be significant in that the results may be used as early warning system for bankruptcy prediction of KOSDAQ firms.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

Climate change caused by elevated greenhouse gases would affect crop production through different pathways in agricultural ecosystems. Because an agricultural ecosystem has complex interactions between societal and economical environment as well as organisms, climate, and soil, adaptation measures in response to climate change on a specific sector could cause undesirable impacts on other sectors inadvertently. An integrated system, which links individual models for components of agricultural ecosystems, would allow to take into account complex interactions existing in a given agricultural ecosystem under climate change and to derive proper adaptation measures in order to improve crop productivity. Most of models for agricultural ecosystems have been used in a separate sector, e.g., prediction of water resources or crop growth. Few of those models have been desiged to be connected to other models as a module of an integrated system. Threfore, it would be crucial to redesign and to refine individual models that have been used for simulation of individual sectors. To improve models for each sector in terms of accuracy and algorithm, it would also be needed to obtain crop growth data through construction of super-sites and satellite sites for long-term monitoring of agricultural ecosystems. It would be advantageous to design a model in a sector from abstraction and inheritance of a simple model, which would facilitate development of modules compatible to the integrated prediction system. Because agricultural production is influenced by social and economical sectors considerably, construction of an integreated system that simulates agricultural production as well as economical activities including trade and demand is merited for prediction of crop production under climate change.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.195-220
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• 2018

In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.68 no.2
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• pp.107-130
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• 2016

This study is aimed at the exploratory research on the influence of the obligation of extension of the retirement age on the baby boom generation. The basic question of this study is about which of the baby boom generation can get how much benefit according as the extension of the retirement age becomes compulsory. The extension of the retirement age is the system that can be applied to regular full-time workers. Accordingly, this study is intending to analyze the characteristics of the workers having a high likelihood for benefits from extension of the retirement age by tracing the economic activity state and labor history of the baby boomers. For this purpose, this study looked into the change of the economic activity state by age cohort of the male baby boomers based on the data for the Korea Labor Panel's 4th(2001) & 17th(2014)year. Using Survival analysis, this study also analyzed who will continue to remain as a regular full-time wage earner. As the result of the analysis, it was found that the more the cohort ages of baby boomers increased, the smaller the probability of remaining as a regular full-time wage earner, and the group who can get benefits from extension of the retirement age was predicted to account for only 11.4% level among the baby boomers. In addition, the result showed that there was a high likelihood of getting more benefits from extension of the retirement age when the baby boomers worked for the government-invested institution, corporate bodies, and government organizations rather than working for private enterprises. Thus, it can be safely said that there might appear a generational conflict due to extension of the retirement age in that such jobs coincide with the ones favored by the rising generation.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.501-510
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• 2014

Volcanic eruptions alone may lead to serious natural disasters, but the associated release of water from a caldera lake may be equally damaging. There is both historical and geological evidence of the past eruptions of Mt. Baekdusan, and the volcano, which has not erupted for over 100 years, has recently shown signs of reawakening. Action is required if we are to limit the social, political, cultural, and economic damage of any future eruption. This study aims to identify the area that would be inundated following a volcanic flood from the Cheon-Ji caldera lake that lies within Mt. Baekdusan. A scenario-based numerical analysis was performed to generate a flood hydrograph, and the parameters required were selected following a consideration of historical records from other volcanoes. The amount of water at the outer rim as a function of time was used as an upper boundary condition for the downstream routing process for a period of 10 days. Data from the USGS were used to generate a DEM with a resolution of 100 m, and remotely sensed satellite data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to show land cover and use. The simulation was generated using the software FLO-2D and was superposed on the remotely sensed map. The results show that the inundation area would cover about 80% of the urban area near Erdaobaihezhen assuming a 10 m/hr collapse rate, and 98% of the area would be flooded assuming a 100 m/hr collapse rate.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.429-446
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• 2018

The $4^{th}$ Industrial Revolution, symbolizing the explosive innovation of digital technologies, is expected to have a great impact on labor relations and produce a lot of contested issues. The labor-management issues, created by the $4^{th}$ Industrial Revolution, are as follows: (1) employment restructuring, job re-allocation, and skill-reformation, driven by the technological displacement, resetting of worker-machine relationship, and negotiation on labor intensity and autonomy, (2) the legislation of institutional protection for the digital dependent self-employed, derived from the proliferation of platform-mediated labor, and the statutory recognition of their 'workerness', (3) unemployment safety net, income guarantee, and skill formation assistance for precarious workeforce, (4) the protection of worker privacy from workplace surveillance, (5) protecting labor rights of the digital dependent self-employed and prcarious workers and guaranteeing their unionization and collective bargaining. In comparing how labor unions in Western countries have responded to the $4^{th}$ Industrial Revolution, German unions have showed a strategic approach of policy formation toward digital technological innovations by effectively building and utilizing diverse channel of social dialogue and collective bargaining, while those in the US and UK have adopted the traditional approach of organizing and protesting in attempting to protect the interest of platform-mediated workers (i.e. Uber drivers). In light of the best practice demonstrated by German unions, it is necessary to build the process of productive policy consultation among three parties- the government, employers, and labor unions - at multi levels (i.e. workplace, sectoral and national levels), in order to prevent the destructive damage as well as labor-management confrotation, caused by digital technological innovations. In such policy consultation procesess, moreover, the inclusive and integrated approach is required to tackle with diverse problems, derived from the $4^{th}$ Industrial Revolution, in a holistic manner.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.450-462
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• 2023

This study suggested methodology of Citizen Science as a tool of ecosystem conservation and management to achieve Wetland Protected Area (WPA) Conservation Plan and examined whose applicability in 3 WPAs (Jangrok of Gwangju metropolitan city, Madongho of Goseong in South Gyeongsang Province, and Incheongang estuary of Gochang in North Jeolla Province). It consists of a) figuring out main interests and stakeholder or beneficiaries of WPA and their information demand based on conservation, utilization, and management target in the WPA Conservation Plan, b) conducting research activities to gain outcome to address stakeholder's demand, and c) returning the research outcome to citizen scientists and making diffusion to the society. Based on the suggested method and process, citizen scientists conducted ecosystem monitoring (plants including Invasive Alien Plants, terrestrial insects, traces of mammals, discovering unknown wetland). As a result, citizen scientists contributed to collecting species information of 16 plans, 43 species of terrestrial insects, 5 mammals including Lutra lutra (Endangered Species I) and Prionailurus bengalensis (Endangered Species II). The authors constructed and provided distribution map of Invasive Alien Plants, which included information of location and density which citizen scientists registered, for Environment Agencies and local governments who manage 3 WPAs to aid data-based ecosystem policy, In further studies, not only accumulating research data and outcomes acquired from citizen science to suffice the policy demands but also deliberate reviewing policy applicability and social·economic ripple effect should be processed for the suggested Citizen Science in WPA to be settled down as a tool of ecosystem conservation and management.