• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사망률 예측

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Determination of Short Term Prognosis Among Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease with Acute Respiratory Failure According to Simplified Acute Physiology Score (만성 폐쇄성 폐질환에서 급성 호흡부전 발생시 Simplifed Acute Physiology Score에 따른 단기예후의 평가)

  • Lee, Sang-Pyo;Sung, Yun-Up;Kim, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Bong-Sik;Kim, Young-Jun;Park, In-Won;Choi, Byung-Whui;Hue, Sung-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.532-539
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    • 1993
  • Background: Physician's estimates of patient survival often influence clinical decisions, especially those near the end of life. In addition. clinical decisions frequently reflect trade-offs between morbidity and length of survival. As a result, accurate estimates of survival can be extremely useful in clinical decision. When the episode of acute respiratory failure in chronic obstructive lung disease, evaluation of the severity of the condition and short term prognosis is difficulit based on the available clinical or paraclinical data at the time of admission. Method: In this study, we performed a retrospective study in Chung Ang University Hospital, 74 patients (51 males, 23 females), who were hospitalized with chronic obstructive lung disease with acute respiratory failure from 1980 to 1992. We evaluated these patients to determine lung prognostic factors at time of admission in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) that predict short term survival, and to determine the possible application of the Simplified Acute Phsiology Score (SAPS) to this population, All patients were treated with similar regimen during the hospitalization. Results: The results were as follows: 1) Hospital mortality was 34%(25/74 patients) and surival rate was 66%(49/74 patients) in COPD with acute respiratory failure. The prognosis of the older age was much poorer than those of the young age. 2) There was no difference in mortality according to the results of basal pulmonary test and arterial blood gas analysis. 3) The SAPS at admission was higher in those patients who expired(10.8) than the survived(6.5), and there was positive correlation between SAPS and mortality (r=0.91, p<0.05). 4) Prognostic factors in acute respiratory failure complicating COPD which were identifiable at time of admission to the ICU were as follows: cachexia, encephalopathy, serum creatinine and phosphate. Conclusion: In conclusion, the SAPS might have a good prognostic value for determination of short term survival among chronic obstructive lung disease with acute respiratory failure.

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Predictors of a Favorable Outcome after Emergent Carotid Artery Stenting in Acute Anterior Circulation Stroke Patients (급성 전방순환 뇌경색 환자에서 응급 경동맥 스텐트 삽입술 후 양호한 임상 결과의 예측인자)

  • Gyeong Il Moon;Byung Hyun Baek;Seul Kee Kim;Yun Young Lee;Hyo-Jae Lee;Woong Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.3
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    • pp.665-675
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    • 2020
  • Purpose This study aimed to identify independent predictors of favorable outcomes associated with emergent carotid artery stenting (CAS) in patients with acute anterior circulation stroke. Materials and Methods This study included 93 patients with acute stroke who underwent emergent CAS to treat stenoocclusive lesions in the cervical internal carotid artery (ICA) within 6 hours of the onset of the associated symptoms. Data were compared between patients with and without favorable outcomes. The independent predictors of a favorable outcome were determined via logistic regression analysis (modified Rankin Scale 0-2 at 90 days). Results Intracranial tandem occlusion was noted in 81.7% of patients (76/93) among which (76/93), 55 of whom underwent intracranial recanalization therapy. Intracranial reperfusion was successful in 74.2% (69/93) and favorable outcomes were noted in 51.6% of patients (48/93). The mortality rate was 6.5% (6/93). In logistic regression analysis, diffusion-weighted imaging-Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score [odds ratio (OR), 1.487; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.018-2.173, p = 0.04], successful reperfusion (OR, 5.199; 95% CI, 1.566-17.265, p = 0.007), and parenchymal hemorrhage (OR, 0.042; 95% CI, 0.003-0.522, p = 0.014) were independently associated with a favorable outcome. Conclusion Baseline infarct size, reperfusion status, and parenchymal hemorrhage were independent predictors of favorable outcomes after emergent CAS to treat stenoocclusive lesions in the cervical ICA in patients with acute anterior circulation stroke.

Prognostic Utility of the Soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid Cells-1 in Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (급성호흡곤란증후군 환자에서 Soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid Cells-1의 예후인자로서의 유용성)

  • Huh, Jin Won;Jung, Hoon;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Younsuck;Hong, Sang-Bum
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2008
  • Background: The triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) is an activating receptor that is expressed on the surface of neutrophils and mature monocytes when stimulated with several microbial components, which can amplify the inflammatory response. This study analyzed the prognostic value of the sTREM-1 levels in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Methods: The bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid and blood was collected prospectively from 32 patients with ARDS, 15 survivors and 17 nonsurvivors. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was performed to measure the sTREM-1. The following data was obtained: APACHE II score, Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), BAL fluid analysis, C-reative protein. Mortality in the ICU was defined as the end point. Results: The serum sTREM-1 level was significantly higher in the nonsurvivors than survivors ($54.3{\pm}10.3pg/ml$ vs. $22.7{\pm}2.3pg/ml$, p<0.05). The sTREM-1 level in the serum, but not in the BAL fluid, was an independent predictor of the ICU mortality (OR: 22.051, 95% CI: 1.780~273.148, p<0.016), and a cut-off value of ${\geq}33pg/ml$ yielded a diagnostic sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 93%. Conclusion: The serum sTREM-1 level may be a useful predictor of the outcome of ARDS patients.

The Effects of Plasma Endotoxin Level on Survival Time of Terminally Ill Cancer Patients (말기암환자에서 혈장 내독소 농도가 생존기간에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jin-Ah;Yoon, Ho Min;Choi, Youn Seon;Yeon, Jong Eun;Lee, June Young
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Since most terminally ill cancer patients die of multiple organ failure, plasma endotoxin concentration levels may be used to predict the life expectancy. This study was performed to evaluate the clinical significance of endotoxin level in plasma as a prognostic factor for survival in patients with terminal cancer. Methods: This study was conducted with 56 terminally ill cancer patients, above 20 years old, from April 2009 through October 2009. Demographic characteristics, Karnofsky performance status, and survival time were evaluated. We analyzed blood levels of white blood cell hemoglobin, hematocrit, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, c-reactive protein, total bilirubin and endotoxin in each patient. Results: We considered following variable for univariate analysis: plasma endotoxin level, sex, age, WBC, hemoglobin, hematocrit, AST, ALT, total bilirubin, CRP and severity of pain. Univariate analysis did not show a significant association between plasma endotoxin level and survival time. However, in a multivariate analysis with factors that were found to be significantly associated with survival sex, WBC count and total bilirubin level in univariate analysis, high levels of plasma endotoxin and short survival time were significantly related. Conclusion: Plasma endotoxin level could be used as a prognostic factor to predict the life expectancy of terminally ill cancer patients.

AI-based Construction Site Prioritization for Safety Inspection Using Big Data (빅데이터를 활용한 AI 기반 우선점검 대상현장 선정 모델)

  • Hwang, Yun-Ho;Chi, Seokho;Lee, Hyeon-Seung;Jung, Hyunjun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.843-852
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    • 2022
  • Despite continuous safety management, the death rate of construction workers is not decreasing every year. Accordingly, various studies are in progress to prevent construction site accidents. In this paper, we developed an AI-based priority inspection target selection model that preferentially selects sites are expected to cause construction accidents among construction sites with construction costs of less than 5 billion won (KRW). In particular, Random Forest (90.48 % of accident prediction AUC-ROC) showed the best performance among applied AI algorithms (Classification analysis). The main factors causing construction accidents were construction costs, total number of construction days and the number of construction performance evaluations. In this study an ROI (return of investment) of about 917.7 % can be predicted over 8 years as a result of better efficiency of manual inspections human resource and a preemptive response to construction accidents.

Panperitonitis with Advanced Gastric Cancer - Based on Seminar of Korean Family Medicine Palliative Medicine Research Group - (진행된 위암 환자에게 발생한 범복막염 치료의 완화의학적 접근 - 대한가정의학회 완화의학연구회 세미나를 기초로 하여 -)

  • Jung, Yun-Joo;Kim, Dae-Kyun;Choi, Youn-Seon;Korean Palliative Medicine Research Group, Korean Palliative Medicine Research Group;Shim, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.35-39
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    • 2006
  • A 77-year-old female presented panperitonitis due to advanced gastric ranter during palliative care. In the case of panperitonitis following obstruction or perforation, surgical treatment is vital to avoid fatal sepsis and dehydration. However, the risk of surgery and the residual life of a patient must be carefully considered because of high mortality and complication rate in those patients with advanced disease due to the poor condition. The therapeutic value of aggressive hydration, nasogastric tube insertion, and the use of antibiotics is also questionable. Palliative surgery was not performed on this case, and she passed away peacefully in the presence of family after 4 days of palliative medical care. Here is the appropriate management for this kind of patients we would like to recommend through review of relevant references and long discussions. Firstly, we need to predict survival time using clinical variables. Secondly, considering patient status and risk of surgery, non surgical palliative care such as pain control, transient nasogastric tube insertion, and parenteral hydration is recommended. Minimal use of fluid is desirable to minimize complications such as edema and dyspnea if massive hydration in the beginning of treatment is not proved to be effective. Even though started earlier in the course of disease, discontinuation of antibiotics could be discussed with patients and their caregiver if patient status is not improved.

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A Case of Fulminant Bronchiolitis Obliterans Organizing Pneumonia (특발성 폐섬유화증과 감별진단을 요하는 전격성 폐쇄성 세기관지염 기질화 폐렴 (Fulminant Bronchiolitis Obliterans Organizing Pneumonia) 1예 보고)

  • Kim, Mi-Seon;Chang, Jung-Hyun;Kim, Tai-Hee;Cha, Ju-Hyun;Kim, Hae-Young;Sung, Sun-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.204-212
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    • 1998
  • Bronchiolitis obliterans organizing pneumonia(BOOP) is a type of diffuse interstitial lung disease that has emerged in the past decade as an important cause of acute respiratory illness in adult. Clinically, the entity usually starts with a subacute influenza-like illness, followed by cough, progressive dyspnea, and weight loss. Organized inflammatory polypoid materials predominantly affecting distal bronchioles, alveolar ducts, and peribronchial alveolar spaces are a key pathologic findings. BOOP is characterized by a good response to glucocorticoid and an excellent prognosis. However, there is a subset of BOOP who presents with a fulminant course leading to death or chronic severe fibrosis with marked impairment of lung function. Recently, we have experienced a case of rapidly progressive BOOP, diagnosed by open lung biopsy and showed a reluctant response to corticosteroid.

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Extubation Time by Birth Weight and the Predictors for Success/Failure at the First Extubation in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants (초극소저출생체중아에서 출생체중별 발관시기 및 첫 발관 시의 성공/실패 예측인자)

  • Choi, Chang Won;Park, Sung Eun;Jeon, Ga Won;Yoo, Eun Jung;Hwang, Jong Hee;Chang, Yun Sil;Park, Won Soon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.488-494
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : To outline the aspects of extubation by birth weight and find the predictors for success/failure at the first extubation in extremely low birth weight infants. Methods : One hundred thirteen extremely low birth weight infants(<1,000 g) who were admitted to NICU at Samsung Seoul Hospital between Jan. 2000 and Jun. 2004 were enrolled. Clinical characteristics that are thought to be related with extubation success or failure were compared with the success and the failure of the first extubation. Results : As the birth weight decreased, extubation success day was significantly delayed : $16{\pm}3day(d)$ in 900-999 g; $20{\pm}3d$ in 800-899 g; $35{\pm}4d$ in 700-799 g; $37{\pm}9d$ in 600-699 g; $49{\pm}12d$ in ${\leq}599g$. 25 out of 113 infants(22%) failed the first extubation. Preterm premature rupture of membrane was associated with extubation success, and air leak was associated with extubation failure, with a borderline significance. Postnatal and corrected age and body weight at the first extubation, nutritional status, and ventilator settings were not associated with extubation success or failure. Extubation success day was significantly delayed, and the incidence of late-onset sepsis and mortality was significant higher in the failure of the first extubation. Conclusion : We could not find significant predictors for success/failure at the first extubation. The failure of the first extubation had an increased risk of late-onset sepsis and death. Further studies are needed to find the predictors for extubation success/failure.

Surgical Results for Treating Postpneumonectomy Empyema with BPF by Using an Omental Pedicled Flap and Thoracoplasty (전폐절제술 후 기관지 흉막루를 동반한 농흉에서 유경성 대망 이식편과 흉곽성형술을 이용한 수술적 치료에 대한 임상 고찰)

  • Jeong, Seong-Cheol;Kim, Mi-Jung;Song, Chang-Min;Kim, Woo-Shik;Shin, Yong-Chul;Kim, Byung-Yul
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.6 s.275
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    • pp.420-427
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    • 2007
  • Background: Postpneumonectomy empyema (PPE) due to bronchopleural fistula (BPF) can be a surgical challenge for surgeons. We analyzed the follow-up outcomes after performing omentopexy and thoracoplasty for the treatment of PPE with BPF after pneumonectomy. Material and Mehod: Between December 1991 and January 2006, 9 patients underwent BPF closure using an omental pedicled flap for the treatment of PPE with BPF after pneumonectomy. There were 7 males and 2 females (mean age: $45.9{\pm}9$ years). The patients were followed up for a mean of 58 months (median: 28 months, range: $6{\sim}169$). When we performed omentopexy, the surgical procedures for empyema were thoracoplasy for 8 patients and the Clagett procedure for 1 patient. Thoracoplasty was performed for the latter patient due to recurrence of empyema, Result: For the 8 patients who were treated by omentopexy and thoracoplasty, there was 1 operation-related death due to sepsis. During follow up, 1 patient, who was treated by omentopexy and a Clagett procedure, died of acute hepatitis 40 months postoperatively. The early mortality was 11.1% (8/9). Of the 8 patients, including the 1 late death patient, successful closure of the BPF were achieved in all patients (8/9) and the empyema was cured in 7 patients (7/8). Conclusion: The BPF closure using an omental pedicled flap was an effective method for treating PPE with BPF due to 75-destroyed lung, and thoracoplasty with simultaneous omentopexy was effective and safe for removing dead space if the patient was young and in a good general condition.

A comparative study of risk according to smoke control flow rate and methods in case of train fire at subway platform (지하철 승강장에서 열차 화재 시 제연풍량 및 방식에 따른 위험도 비교 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Lee, Hu-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.327-339
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present the effective smoke control flow rate and mode for securing safety through quantitative risk assessment according to the smoke control flow rate and mode (supply or exhaust) of the platform when a train fire occurs at the subway platform. To this end, a fire outbreak scenario was created using a side platform with a central staircase as a model and fire analysis was performed for each scenario to compare and analyze fire propagation characteristics and ASET, evacuation analysis was performed to predict the number of deaths. In addition, a fire accident rate (F)/number of deaths (N) diagram (F/N diagram) was prepared for each scenario to compare and evaluate the risk according to the smoke control flow rate and mode. In the ASET analysis of harmful factors, carbon monoxide, temperature, and visible distance determined by performance-oriented design methods and standards for firefighting facilities, the effect of visible distance is the largest, In the case where the delay in entering the platform of the fire train was not taken into account, the ASET was analyzed to be about 800 seconds when the air flow rate was 4 × 833 m3/min. The estimated number of deaths varies greatly depending on the location of the vehicle of fire train, In the case of a fire occurring in a vehicle adjacent to the stairs, it is shown that the increase is up to three times that of the vehicle in the lead. In addition, when the smoke control flow rate increases, the number of fatalities decreases, and the reduction rate of the air supply method rather than the exhaust method increases. When the supply flow rate is 4 × 833 m3/min, the expected number of deaths is reduced to 13% compared to the case where ventilation is not performed. As a result of the risk assessment, it is found that the current social risk assessment criteria are satisfied when smoke control is performed, and the number of deaths is the flow rate 4 × 833 m3/min when smoke control is performed at 29.9 people in 10,000 year, It was analyzed that it decreased to 4.36 people.