• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비시장 관계

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A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

An Empirical Study on the effects of volatility of carbon market on stock price volatility : Focusing on Europe iron and cement sector (탄소시장의 변동성이 주가변동성에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구 : 유럽의 철강산업과 시멘트산업을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dong-Woo;Kim, Young-Duk
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.223-245
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    • 2017
  • This study is examined interaction between carbon market with stock market using a multivariate GARCH(DCC) model. Carbon market is EU ETS EUA price, stock market is the iron and cement stock price which has relatively energy intensive and massive carbon emissions sector in the industrial sector. It also analyzed changes in the correlation between the markets through an analysis of correlation coefficients. Moreover, it checked whether there was marketability expansion(or expansion of carbon emissions reduction) through the analysis above. As a result of empirical tests, it showed that the price spillover effect was insignificant. In addition, it represented that there was a weak correlation between the two markets since the volatility spillover effect disappeared in the second phase by an external shock(a financial crisis). Moreover, it was revealed that there were no significant changes although there was a weak upward trend in terms of the correlation between the carbon market and the stock market. This implies that emission rights could not expand marketability to financial market as a commodity(or did not play its natural role of the reduction of carbon emission).

A study on the time-varying causal relationship between the housing sales market and the jeonse market in Seoul (서울 주택 매매시장과 전세시장의 시간가변적인 인과관계에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Chul hong;Park, Jinbaek
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the causal relationship between housing sales prices and jeonse prices in Seoul, specifically in the Gangnam and Gangbuk neighborhoods. The time-invariant Granger causality test showed bidirectional causality between the sales price and the jeonse price in Seoul and Gangbuk, but no bidirectional causality was found in Gangnam. However, the time-varying Granger causality test showed a Granger causal relationship between the housing jeonse price and the sales price for the entire period after 1993 in all three areas. Notably, the causal effect of jeonse prices on sales prices has been continuous in Gangnam since 2010. These analysis results suggest that an increase in liquidity supply to the jeonse market could increase volatility throughout the housing market, given the strong influence between the sales and jeonse markets in both directions.

The Price Dynamics in Futures and Option Markets - based on KOSPI200 stock index market - (주가지수선물가격과 옵션가격의 동적관련성에 관한 연구 - KOSPI 200 주가지수현물시장을 중심으로 -)

  • Seo, Sang-Gu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the dynamic relationship between KOSPI200 stock index and stock index futures and stock index option markets which is its derived from KOSPI200 stock index. We use 5-minutes rate of return data from 2012. 06 to 2014. 12. To empirical analysis, this study use autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis as a preliminary analysis and then following Stoll and Whaley(1990) and Chan(1992), the multiple regression is estimated to examine the lead-lag patterns between the stock index and stock index futures and option markets by Newey and West's(1987) Empirical results of our study shows as follows. First, there exist a strong autocorrelation in the KOSPI200 stock index before 10minutes but a very weak autocorrelation in the stock index futures and option markets. Second, there is a strong evidence that stock index future and option markets lead KOSPI200 stock index in the cross-correlation analysis. Third, based on the multiple regression, the stock index futures and option markets lead the stock index prior to 10-15 minutes and weak evidence that the stock index leads the future and option markets. This results show that the market efficient of KOSPI200 stock index market is improved as compared to the early stage of stock index future and option market.

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Market and Trend of the Cryogenic Refrigerator (적외선 및 저온 센서 냉각 기술의 시장과 동향)

  • 이성래;손홍균;채민수;유병건
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 2002
  • 극저온 냉동기 시장은 군수시장이 대부분이며 민수시장은 현재까지는 여러 분야에 응용되기 시작하는 시장 형성기에 있다. 그러나 향후 초전도시장과 더불어 성장이 기대되는 시장이다. 국내는 기술 개발면에서 많은 발전을 하고 있지만 아직도 외국에 비하여 뒤떨어진 실정이며 특히 극저온 냉동기의 제조 공정과 경제성 면에서의 기술발전은 본사를 제외하고서는 전무한 실정이다. 생산기술의 면에서의 연구 부족은 제한된 시장과 많은 기술장벽과 단시간의 개발기간 등에 주원인이 있다고 하겠다. 이러한 공정기술 낙후성은 가격경쟁력에서 뚜렷이 나타날 수밖에 없으며 이를 극복하기 위해서는 지속적인 개발과 체계적 지원이 뒤따라야 한다. 극저온냉동기의 국산화를 위해서는 원천기술 개발뿐만 아니라 공정 및 생산기술 개발 또한 절실히 필요하다. 따라서 많은 관계 연구자들의 연구와 관심이 뒤따라야 한다.

The Effects of Corporate Ownership Structure on R&D Expenditures: Comparison between KSE and KOSDAQ Listed Firms (기업 소유구조가 연구개발비 지출에 미치는 영향: 유가증권시장과 코스닥시장 상장기업 비교를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Shin;Jung, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.239-270
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    • 2017
  • This paper examines the relationship between ownership structure and the intensity of R&D expenditures of a firm by analyzing the panel data composed of 553 manufacturing firms in KSE(Korea Stock Exchange) and KOSDAQ listed firms for the period of 2007-2014. The major findings are as follows; (1) Regarding the relationship between CEO stockholding and R&D intensity, we find the inverted-U shape relationship in KOSDAQ firms, consistent with the theoretical discussion and empirical studies on U.S. firms. The result suggests that management stockholding reduces agency problem at the R&D margin. On the contrary, the insignificant result in KSE firms seems to be due to the scant stockholding of most 'non-owner' CEOs. (2) Regarding the relationship between the largest shareholder's portion and R&D intensity, KSE firms exhibit negatively significant relationship, suggesting the existence of serious agency problem between the largest shareholder and the minor shareholders. This agency problem seems to be alleviated in KOSDAQ firms mainly because the founders with technology expertise are still in charge of the business. (3) Foreign investors seem to fail in effectively encouraging R&D expenditures in either KSE or KOSDAQ listed firms. This study contributes to the existing literature by showing for the first time that ownership structure affects R&D activities in different ways between KSE and KOSDAQ firms.

체계적위험과 비정상성에 관한 연구

  • Lee, Jin-Geun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.233-258
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    • 1998
  • 본 연구는 비정상성과 관련된 기존의 연구들이 베타위험과 추가설명변수들 사이의 상관관계를 무시한 검증방법의 오류를 지적한다. 그 상관관계를 고려한 포트폴리오 구성방법을 선택한 후, 비정상성에 관한 좀 더 정밀한 검증을 실시하여 규모효과와 EP효과를 검토한다. 더 나아가 CAPM의 두 가지 주장, 즉, 베타위험의 유일성과 이 위험과 그 자산의 수익률간의 양의 상관관계를 갖는다는 두 가지 주장을 세밀히 검토하게 된다. 또한 이 모든 검증에서 등가중지수(Equal-Weighted Index: EWI)와 가치가중지수(Value-Weighted Index: VWI)의 적용에 대한 차이도 동시에 검토하였다. 1980년 1월부터 1993년 6월까지의 월별수익률과 한국신용평가주식회사의 주식수익률 데이터베이스(KIS-SMAT), 재무제표 데이터베이스(KIS-FAS)를 이용하여 검증한 결과, 한국중권시장에서는 규모효과만 존재하였고, EP효과가 존재한다는 증거는 얻지 못하였다. 또한 EWI와 VWI의 지수에 대한 차이는 아주 미미하였다. 특히 CAPM에서 주장하는 베타위험의 유일성과 베타위험과 그 자산의 수익률의 양의 상관관계에 대한 두 가지 사실에 대해서는 오히려 상반된 증거만을 확인할 수 있었다.

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소비(消費)에 근거한 CAPM의 실증적(實證的) 연구(硏究)

  • Gu, Bon-Yeol
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 1992
  • CCAPM이 한국증권시장(韓國證券市場)에서 현실적(現實的)으로 성립가능한가에 대한 실증적 검증을 하였으며, 또한 시장(市場)포트폴리오와 대응되는 총소비지출의 성장률이 사전적(事前的)으로 효율적 프론티어(efficient frontier)상에 놓여 있는가에 대한 검증을 실시하였다. 이와 아울러 전통적인 S-L CAPM도 검증함으로써 CCAPM과 S-L CAPM을 비교분석(比較分析)하였다. 통계적 기법은 비선형하(非線型下)의 무관회귀분석과 GLS를 이용하였다. 1980년 1/4분기부터 1990년 4/4분기까지의 분기별 자료를 이용하여 분석한 결과, CCAPM은 전기간(全期間)을 표본으로 한 경우에 기대수익률과 위험과의 선형관계(線型關係)가 기각되었다. 그리고 전기간(全期間)을 전반기(前半期)와 후반기(後半期)로 나눈 하위기간별(下位期間別) 분석(分析)에서도 마찬가지의 결과를 얻었다. 한편 S-L CAPM의 경우에는 전기간(全期間)과 전반기(前半期)에는 선형관계가 기각되었으나 후반기(後半期)에는 채택되었다. 즉 후반기에는 위험프레미엄의 추정치가 0.05834이고 t값이 2.525로 매우 유의적이었으며 절편의 값이 통계적으로 0과 다르지 않아 실질무위험이자율(實質無危險利子率)이 0%로 추정되었다. 그런데 이는 실제로 3개월의 정기예금이자율과 소비자물가지수를 고려하여 구한 것과 일치함을 보였다. 그리고 이에 사용된 한국종합주가지수의 사전적(事前的) 효율성(效率性)은 전기간(全期間)과 하위기간(下位期間) 모두에 있는 것으로 판명되었다. 한편, CCAPM이 한국증권시장에서 기각되는 이유 중의 하나는 경기순환에 따른 생산활동(生産活動)이 즉시적으로 개별증권의 수익률에 영향을 주나 총소비지출은 이보다 비탄력적(非彈力的)인데 따른 것으로 생각되었다.

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Moderating Effect of Employment Types in the Relationships between Employment Relations Characteristics and Job Involvement in Hotel Corporations (호텔기업에서 고용관계특성과 직무몰입의 관계에 대한 고용형태의 조절효과)

  • Kim, Yong-Soon;Hwang, Q-Jeen
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.314-321
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    • 2009
  • The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between employment relations characteristic and job involvement according to employment type in hotel corporations. Using data from 238 employees from hotel corporations, this research shows the results in the below. First, there is a significant difference in the employment relations characteristic(employment security and peer relationships) and job involvement. Second, the employment type does not moderates the relationships between employment relations characteristic and job involvement. Third, employment security and peer relationships are powerful factors to predict job involvement in both form of worker.

Analysis on the competitiveness and cooperation in green car technology (그린카의 기술경쟁력 및 협력관계 분석)

  • Kwon, young-il;Kwon, oh-jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.359-360
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    • 2012
  • 그린카의 기술 분야별로 기술성과 시장성을 비교해 보면, 클린디젤자동차 분야의 기술이 특허당 피인용수나 시장확보지수가 모두 높아 기타 기술에 비해 높은 경쟁력을 가지고 있는 것으로 평가되었다. 하이브리드자동차 분야의 특허는 특허당 피인용수는 높지만 시장확보지수가 상대적으로 낮고, 전기자동차는 시장확보지수는 평균 수준이나 특허당 피인용수는 상대적으로 낮은 수치를 나나내었다. 그린카 중에서 연료전지자동차의 특허당 피인용수나 시장확보지수가 가장 낮아 기술성 및 시장성이 가장 낮은 것으로 평가되었다.

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