• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.245-249
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• 2009

전 세계적인 지구 온난화로 인한 이상기후로 최근 10년간의 홍수 피해는 그 강도와 규모면에서 점차 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 1998년과 1999년 그리고 2002년의 전국적인 홍수로 많은 제방과 저수지가 붕괴되어 수많은 가옥과 농경지가 침수되었으며, 2002년 태풍 루사의 영향으로 낙동강 인근 지역과 강릉 지역은 엄청난 피해를 입었다. 본 연구에서는 태풍 루사로 인해 특히 피해가 심했던 지역 중 경북 김천지역에 위치한 감천유역에 대해서 강우관측소 자료를 이용하여 유역 내 홍수량을 산정하였고, 산정된 홍수량을 바탕으로 직지사천 내 하도 모의를 실시함으로써 하천내의 홍수위를 산정하였다. 또한 모의결과는 하천 내 실측홍수위 자료와 비교함으로서 본 연구에서 적용한 홍수해석 기법의 적용성을 입증하였다. 그리고 100년 및 200년 빈도의 확률강우량을 산정하여 빈도별 확률유출량 및 하도내에서의 유량 및 수위를 산정하여 기성제방고와 비교를 실시함으로써 홍수에 취약한 지역을 도출 할 수 있었다. 또한 국내의 홍수예경보체계와 연계하여 선행시간을 확보한 정확도 높은 홍수정보시스템 구축에 크게 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.161-176
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• 1993

For the purpose of assessing structural integrity at a level of complexity and accuracy appropriate for the situation, integrity assessment methods are formulated with the following methods. One is three-tier assessment method of the revised BSI PD 6493 which considers stable crack growth effect, the others are limit load analysis which estimates the plastic collapse load and stability assessment method which considers stable crack growth of ductile material exactly using J-integral and tearing modulus. Besides, integrity assessments for center cracked panel(CCP) specimen and the circumferential through-cracked pipe are carried out and reliability analysis is accomplished by the first order reliability method which is one of the conventional reliability methods. Also the accuracy of the present method is verified by Monte Carlo method.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.228-240
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• 1991

Many experimental data of fatigue crack propagation show that the fatigue crack propagation process is stochastic. Therefore, the study on the crack propagation must be based on the probabilistic approach. In the present paper, fatigue crack propagation process is assumed to be a discrete Markov process and the method is developed, which can evaluate the reliability of the structural component by using Markov chain model(Unit step B-model) suggested by Bogdanoff. In this method, leak failure, plastic collapse and brittle fracture of the critical component are taken as failure modes, and the effects of initial crack distribution, periodic and non-periodic inspection on the probability of failure are considered. In this method, an equivalent load value for random loading such as wave load is used to facilitate the analysis. Finally some calculations are carried out in order to show the usefulness and the applicability of this method. And then some remarks on this method are mentioned.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.35-35
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• 2020

기후변화로 인한 집중호우, 태풍에 따른 제방 붕괴로 인한 하천 범람 등 많은 재해가 발생하고 있다. 특히 도심지의 내수침수, 도시하천의 범람은 피해 지역의 사회 경제적인 피해액을 동반한다. 이에 도심지에서 발생되는 홍수피해액을 산정하기 위하여 다차원법을 이용한 피해액 추정 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있으며 기후변화를 고려한 홍수피해에 관련한 연구도 활발히 진행되고 있다. 그러나 많은 선행 연구에서는 다차원법에서 제시하고 있는 침수편입률 산정에 있어 건물군 인벤토리를 고려하지 않고 토지이용에 따른 면적비율만을 적용하여 산정하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화시나리오와 건물군 인벤토리를 이용하여 미래 잠재홍수피해에 따른 홍수피해액을 산정하여 기후변화가 홍수피해에 미치는 영향을 평가하고자 하였다. 대상지역으로 2020년부터 국가하천으로 승격되며 하천의 좌안과 우안에 도심지가 형성되어있는 원주천 유역을 대상으로 선정하였다. 기후변화 시나리오는 기상청에서 제공하고 있는 13종 국가표준시나리오를 사용하였으며 SDQDM 기법을 적용하여 상세화 자료를 생산하였다. 생산된 자료를 이용하여 원주천 하천정비계획(80년 빈도) 보다 높은 80년, 100년, 200년 빈도의 확률강우량을 산정하였고 확률강우에 따른 유출량을 산정하여 홍수범람모형에 적용하였다. 산정된 홍수피해면적과 원주시 건물군 인벤토리를 활용하여 침수편입률을 산정하였으며 미래 잠재홍수피해에 따른 빈도별 홍수피해액 산정을 통해 원주천 유역의 기후변화가 따른 홍수피해에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.11
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• pp.2305-2311
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• 2002

The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

• Explosives and Blasting
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.10-16
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• 2019

Information on overpressure, positive phase duration, and impulse are required to assess the effects of shock waves or pressure waves on the structure. In this study, the overpressure and positive phase duration were determined by applying the Multi-Energy Method, which is found to be effective in analyzing the explosion of vapor clouds. Based on the total heat of combustion estimated in the cyclohexane vapor cloud explosion in the Nypro Ltd(UK), overpressure and positive phase duration at the distance of 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, 240, 280, 320, 360(m) from the source of explosion were evaluated. Overpressure was shown to decrease exponentially and positive phase duration increased almost linearly with distance. A probit function was used to assess the probability of damages for the structures at each distance using the overpressure and impact obtained at the above mentioned distances. The Analyses of probability of damages have shown that there is a high probability of collapse at distances within 120m, major damage to structures within 240m, and minor damage and breakage of window panes of structures occur over the entire distances.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.50-60
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• 2024

To promote the application of reliability-based design within the Korean coastal engineering community, the author conducted reliability analyses and optimized the design of a vertical-type breakwater, considering multiple limit states in the seas off of Pusan and Gunsan - two representative ports in Korea. In this process, rather than relying on design waves of a specific return period, the author intentionally avoided such constraints. Instead, the author characterized the uncertainties associated with wave force, lift force, and overturning moment - key factors significantly influencing the integrity of a vertical-type breakwater. This characterization was achieved by employing a probabilistic model derived from the frequency analysis results of long-term in-situ wave data. The limit state of the vertical-type breakwater encompassed sliding, overturning, and collapse failure, with the close interrelation between wave force, lift force, and moment described using the Nataf joint probability distribution. Simulation results indicate, as expected, that considering only sliding failure underestimates the failure probability. Furthermore, it was shown that the failure probability of vertical-type breakwaters cannot be consistently secured using design waves with a specific return period. In contrast, breakwaters optimally designed to meet the reliability index requirement of 𝛽-3.5 to 4 consistently achieve a consistent failure probability across all sea areas.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.53-64
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• 2009

Many slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration. A lot of recent researches are therefore focused on rainfall-induced slope instability and the rainfall infiltration is recognized as the important triggering factor. The rainfall infiltrates into the soil slope and makes the matric suction lost in the slope and even the positive pore water pressure develops near the surface of the slope. They decrease the resisting shear strength. In Korea, a few public institutions suggested conservative slope design guidelines that assume a fully saturated soil condition. However, this assumption is irrelevant and sometimes soil properties are misused in the slope design method to fulfill the requirement. In this study, a more relevant slope stability evaluation method is suggested to take into account the real rainfall infiltration phenomenon. Unsaturated soil properties such as shear strength, soil-water characteristic curve and permeability for Korean weathered soils were obtained by laboratory tests and also estimated by artificial neural network models. For real-time assessment of slope instability, failure warning criteria of slope based on deterministic and probabilistic analyses were introduced to complement uncertainties of field measurement data. The slope stability evaluation technique can be combined with field measurement data of important factors, such as matric suction and water content, to develop an early warning system for probably unstable slopes due to the rainfall.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.339-344
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• 2006

Slope failures are happen to natural disastrous when they occur in mountainous areas adjoining highways in Korea. The accidents associated with slope failures have increased due to rapid urbanization of mountainous areas. Therefore, Regular maintenance is essential for all slope and conducted to maintain road safety as well as road function. In this study, we take priority of making a database of risk factor of the failure of a slope before assesment and analysis. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a standard of Slope Management Information Sheet(SMIS) like as Hazard Map. The next research, we suggest to pre-estimated model of a road slope using Logistic Regression Model.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.282_283
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• 2009

최근 국내계통에서도 중부하 상태로 안정도 한계근처에서 운용되고 있는 실정으로 이미 여러 선진국에서 경험한 전압붕괴로 인한 대규모 정전사태의 확률이 점점 증대되고 있다. 최근 우리나라에서도 전압안정도 측면에서 전압제어시스템의 필요성을 인식하고 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 전력IT과제를 통해 지능형 전압제어시스템을 개발하였다. 일반적으로 성공적인 지능형 시스템을 구현하기 위해서는 효과적인 탐색기법을 선정해야 한다. 본 논문에서는 지능형 전압제어시스템의 효과적인 동작을 위한 탐색기법을 선정하기 위해 전압제어문제를 상태공간 표현법을 사용하여 모델링 하였고 이에 적합한 탐색기법을 선정하였다.