• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.48-55
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• 2016

The assessment and prediction of service life of a structure are usually under uncertainty so that rational probabilistic concepts and methods have to be applied. Based on these rational assessment and prediction, optimum maintenance strategies to minimize the life-cycle cost and/or maximize the structural safety can be established. The service life assessment and prediction considering maintenance actions generally includes effects of maintenance types and times of the structural components on the service life extensions of structural system. Existing researches on the service life management have revealed the appropriate system modeling considering the correlation among the components is required for system reliability analysis and probabilistic service life estimation. However, the study on correlation among the maintenance actions is still required. This paper deals with such a study for more effective and efficient service life management. In this paper, both the preventive and essential maintenances are considered for the extended service life estimation and management.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.79-87
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• 2010

This is the first of the two papers dealing with reliability analyses for external and internal stability of a quay wall constructed on a special foundation. A new practical reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to evaluate the quantitative risk associated with external stability of a quay wall constructed on the deep cement mixed ground. The method can consider uncertainties in various design variables. For the risk estimation to external stability of the improved soil-quay wall, three corresponding limit state functions of sliding, overturning and bearing capacity are fully defined by introducing concept of the secondary random variable. Three representative reliability methods, MVFOSM, FORM and MCS are then applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of the three limit state functions explicitly expressed in terms of the basic and secondary random variables. From the reliability analysis results, the failure probabilities obtained from the three approaches are very close to each other, and the sliding failure mode appears to be the most critical when the earthquake loading is under consideration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.5
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• pp.333-343
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• 2022

For water resource management, the design flood is calculated using the flood frequency analysis technique and the rainfall runoff model. The method by design flood frequency analysis calculates the stochastic design flood by directly analyzing the actual discharge data and is theoretically evaluated as the most accurate method. Actual discharge data frequency analysis of the measured flow was limited due to data limitations in the existing flood flow analysis. In this study, design flood frequency analysis was performed using the measured flow data stably secured through the water level-discharge relationship curve formula. For the frequency analysis of design flood, the parameters were calculated by applying the bayesian inference, and the uncertainty of flood volume by frequency was quantified. It was confirmed that the result of calculating the design flood was close to that calculated by the rainfall-runoff model by applying long-term rainfall data. It is judged that hydrological analysis can be done from various perspectives by using long-term actual flow data through hydrological survey.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.55-61
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• 2017

Recently several researches have been conducted to develop sliding track system in which friction between concrete track and bridge slab has been reduced. This paper investigated shear load carrying capacity of lateral supporting concrete block which should be implemented to resist lateral load due to train in sliding track system. In order to evaluate shear load carrying capacity of lateral supporting concrete block, analytical model has been developed considering concrete friction and rebar dowel action along construction joint. The proposed model predicted test results on the shear load carrying capacity from literature conservatively by 13~23% because effect of aggregate interlock along crack surface was neglected. Since construction joint status is ambiguous on construction site, it can be concluded that the proposed model can be used for reasonable design of lateral supporting concrete block. Based on the proposed model, design proposal for lateral supporting concrete block has been established.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.9 no.5 s.45
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• pp.1-10
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• 2005

This study proposes a fatigue reliability evaluation procedure for steel-composite high-speed railway bridge based on dynamic analysis and investigates the effectiveness of Tuned Mass Damper(TMD) in terms of the extension of fatigue life of the bridge. For the fatigue reliability evaluation, the limit state is determined using S-N curve and linear fatigue-damage accumulation. Dynamic analyses are peformed repeatedly to consider the uncertainties of train-velocity and damping ratio of the bridge. The distribution of random variables related to fatigue damage for the intended service life is then statistically estimated from analytical results. Finally, the fatigue reliability indices are obtained by means of the Advanced First-Order Second-Moment (AFOSM) method. Through numerical simulation of a steel-composite bridge of 40m span, the effectiveness of TMD on fatigue life of the bridge is examined and the results are presented.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.913-925
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• 2012

This study evaluates the economic benefit of the project constructing the international riding arena having been built at Sangju in Gyeongsangbuk-Do by the willingness to pay (WTP) of residents in the province. As the evaluation method, the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method (CVM) is adopted with the additional questions of whether his/her WTP is zero, to improve the statistical accuracy of evaluation results. Considering the arena's administrative location, the population of the surveys for analysis is confined to residents of Daegu and Gyeongsangbuk-do. The survey is conducted through personal interviews. It turns out that the WTP per household per year is evaluated as 1,847 won and the total yearly benefit of the Sangju international horse riding arena is estimated as 3.56 billion won.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.341-352
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• 2004

In this study(II), the model developed in the previous study(I) has been tested on two cases of constant-slope areas to verify the model applicability. Firstly, an impervious one-dimensional runoff problem has been simulated. Secondly, an impervious two-dimensional runoff problem at a converging plain which consists of a V-shaped section plus a portion of the surface of a cone has been simulated. For each case, the simulation results have good agreements with the observed data. And the model has been applied to actual watersheds, which were the Sulma watershed with 8$\textrm{km}^2$ and the Donggok watershed with 33.2$\textrm{km}^2$, drainage area, respectively. The simulated results agree with observed in terms of discharges at several stations. Monte Carlo simulation was also performed on the same watersheds and the modeling results have been evaluated. The suggested model can be used for real-time forecasting of rainfall-runoff analysis, and will contribute for basinwide flood control in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.353-353
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 CMIP5(The fifth phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project) 미래기후시나리오와 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) 모형 기반의 딥러닝 기법을 이용하여 하천유량 예측을 위한 최적 학습 기간을 제시하였다. 연구지역으로는 진안군(성산리) 지점을 선정하였다. 보정(2000~2002/2014~2015) 및 검증(2003~2005/2016~2017) 기간을 설정하여 연구지역의 실측 유량 자료와 LSTM 기반 모의유량을 비교한 결과, 전체적으로 모의값이 실측값을 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, LSTM 모형의 장기간 예측 성능을 평가하기 위하여 LSTM 모형 기반 유량을 보정(2000~2015) 및 검증(2016~2019) 기간의 SWAT 기반 유량에 비교하였다. 비록 모의결과에일부 오차가 발생하였으나, LSTM 모형이 장기간의 하천유량을 잘 산정하는 것으로 나타났다. 검증 결과를 기반으로 2011년~2100년의 CMIP5 미래기후시나리오 기상자료를 이용하여 SWAT 기반 유량을 모의하였으며, 모의한 하천유량을 LSTM 모형의 학습자료로 사용하였다. 다양한 학습 시나리오을 적용하여 LSTM 및 SWAT 모형 기반의 하천유량을 모의하였으며, 최적 학습 기간을 제시하기 위하여 학습 시나리오별 LSTM/SWAT 기반 하천유량의 상관성 및 불확실성을 비교하였다. 비교 결과 학습 기간이 최소 30년 이상일때, 실측유량과 비교하여 LSTM 모형 기반 하천유량의 불확실성이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 CMIP5 미래기후시나리오와 딥러닝 기반 LSTM 모형을 연계하여 미래 장기간의 일별 유량을 모의할 경우, 신뢰성 있는 LSTM 모형 기반 하천유량을 모의하기 위해서는 최소 30년 이상의 학습 기간이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3B
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• pp.269-279
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• 2009

The design flood estimation in a large river basin has a lot of uncertainties in areal reduction factors, time-spatial rainfall distribution, and parameters of rainfall-runoff model. The use of historical concurrent rainfall events for estimating design flood would reduce the uncertainties. This study presents a procedure for estimating design floods using historical rainfall events and storage function model. The design rainfall and time-spatial distribution were determined through analyzing concurrent rainfall events, and the design floods were estimated using storage function model with a non-linear hydrology response. To evaluate the applicability of the procedure of this study, the estimated floods were compared to results of frequency analysis of flood data. Both floods gave very similar results. It shows the applicability of the procedure presented in this study for estimating design floods in practices.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.113-113
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• 2022

기후 변화에 따른 집중호우의 증가로 유례없는 홍수가 발생하기도 한다. 홍수 대비를 위한 수리구조물 설계 및 홍수 예측을 위해서는 기초자료인 유량 자료가 중요하며, 이는 Rating-curve를이용하여 산정하는 것이 일반적이다. 하지만, 이를 기왕의 데이터가 부족한 지역과 적용수위 이상에 대해 적용하는 것에 한계가 있다. 2020년 8월 섬진강에 발생한 홍수는 홍수량의 추정이 어려울 뿐 아니라 기존의 Rating curve를 활용하여 홍수량을 추정하는데 한계가 있다. 섬진강 하천정비기본계획(2021)에 따르면 섬진강 남원(신덕리) 관측소는 100년 빈도 홍수량이 7,470m³/s인 반면, 선형 보간을 통한 Rating curve 외삽 결과 약 23,000m³/s로 많은 차이 나는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 외삽의 불확실성과 직접 측량에 어려움이 있는 홍수기 유량 추정을 위해 수리학적 해석 방법을 이용한 간접유량 산정기법을 제시하였다. 수치해석모형을 이용하여 홍수사상을 재현하고, 이를 역으로 이용하여 관측 수위와 근접한 계산 결과를 보인 입력 자료로부터 대상 지역의 유량을 간접적으로 산정하였다. 상류단 유량자료의 생성을 위하여 Rating curve의 변수에 대하여 무작위 조합을 생성하였고, K-River(1차원 수리해석 모형)를 이용하여 MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation)를 수행하였다. 계산된 수위와 관측 수위간 수위 재현성 평가(NSE, RSR)를 통해 최적 결과를 나타낸 Rating Curve의 변수들로부터 경계조건의 Rating Curve를 산정하였다. 방법론의 검증을 위해 요천 합류부에 적용하였으며, 그 결과 기존 곡선식의 외삽에 따른 유량 자료의 수위 재현성과 비교하여 개선된 것을 확인하였다. 이를 활용하여 수자원 유량 자료의 신뢰도 개선에 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.