• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성 전파

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Modeling of Wheeled-Mobile Robots and Path-Tracking using Time-Scaling Method (구륜이동로봇의 모델링과 Time-Scaling 기법을 이용한 경로추적)

  • Kim, Choung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Industry Society
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    • v.5 no.9
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    • pp.993-1004
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    • 2004
  • We propose the method for kinematic and dynamic modeling and Path-tracking of four-wheeled mobile robots with 2 d.o.f having the limited drive-torques. Controllability of wheeled-mobile robots is revealed by using the kinematic model. Instantaneously coincident coordinate system, force/torque propagation and Newton's equilibrium law are used to induce the dynamic model. When drive-torques generated by inverse dynamics exceed the limitation, we make wheeled-mobile robots follow the reference path by modifying the planned reference trajectory with time-scaling. The controller is introduced to compensate for error owing to modeling uncertainty and measurement noise. And simulation results prove that the method proposed by this paper is efficient.

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정성적 시뮬레이션에 의한 화력발전소 보일러 프로세스의 고장진단

  • 김응석;오영일;변승현
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.169-169
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    • 1999
  • 최근 산업 플랜트의 공정제어 시스템은 복잡하고 대규모화되어 고장 발생시 경제적 손실과 위험성이 증폭되어 규정된 안정서와 신뢰성 확보가 필수적이라 할 수 있다. 고장검출 및 진단기법은 시스템의 신뢰성을 높이기 위한 효과적인 방안을 연구하는 것으로 현대에 들어서 많은 학자들의 관심을 끌고 있으며 실제 계통에 점차적으로 응용되고 있다. 현재까지 개발된 고장검출 및 진단기법은 사용된 프로세스 모델의 형태, 고장검출 진단 알고리즘에 따라 다양하게 분류 될 수 있으며 일반적으로 사용된 모델에 따라 크게 1) 정량적 모델에 근거한 해석적 기법, 2) 정성적 모델에 근거한 기법, 3) 지식기반 진단 기법으로 구분 할 수 있다. 이중 정량적 모델 기법은 대상계통의 수학적 모델에 근거하여 운전 데이터를 분석함으로서 고장검출 진단을 수행하는 해석적 기법으로서 근본적으로 계통의 정확한 수학적 모델을 요구하므로 불확실성을 포함한 계통 및 비선형성이 강한 계통등에는 적용이 곤란하다. 정성적 모델 및 지식기반 기법은 정량적 진단 기법과는 달리 대상 프로세스에 대한 수학적 모델 대신에 운전자의 경험과 프로세스 변수간의 상호 작용 및 고장의 전파과정, 고장원인과 증상과의 직접적인 관계에 대한 구조적 지식에 근거한 것으로 고장원인에 대한 계통의 동작을 추론 할 수 있으며, 상황 변화에 따른 영향을 예측할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 정성적 모델 및 지식기반 기법에 근거한 고장검출 및 진단 기술을 화력 발전소 보일로 프로세스에 적용하여 정성적 시뮬레이션에 의한 설비의 고장을 조기에 발견하여 고장 파급으로 인한 발전 정지 및 설비의 손상 확대를 방지하고 고장 발생시 신속한 원인 규명 및 후속 조치관련 정보들을 운전원에게 제공할 목적으로 현재 전력원에서 개발중인 지능형 경보시스템에 대하여 기술하고자 한다.음과 같이 설명하였다. 서로 상반되는 것들이 다음과 같이 설명하였다. 서로 상반되는 것들이 부딛힘이 없이 공존하고 일상의 논리가 무시된다. 부정, 의심이 없고 확실한 것이 없다. 한 대상에 가졌던 생각이 다른 대상에 옮겨간다(displacement). 한 대상이 여러 대상이 갖고 있는 의미를 함축하고 있다(condensation). 시각적인 순서가 무시된다. 마음속의 생각과 외부의 실제적인 일을 구분하지 못한다. 시간 상의 순서가 있다가 없다가 한다. 차례로 일어나야 할 일이 동시에 한꺼번에 일어난다. 대상들이 서로 비슷해지고 동시에 있을 수 없는 대상들이 함께 나타난다. 사고의 정상적인 구조가 와해된다. Matte-Blance는 무의식에서는 여러 독립된 대상들간의 구분을 없애며, 주체와 객체를 하나로 보려는 대칭화(symmetrization)의 경향이 있기 때문에 이런 변화가 생긴다고 하였다. 또 대칭화가 진행되면 무한대의 느낌을 갖게 되어, 전지(moniscience), 전능(omnipotence), 무력감(impotence), 이상화(idealization)가 나타난다. 그러나 무의식에 대칭화만 있는 것은 아니며, 의식의 사고양식인 비대칭도 어느 정도 나타나며, 대칭화의 정도에 따라, 대상들이 잘 구분되어 있는 단계, 의식수준의 감정단계, 집단 내에서의 대칭화 단계, 집단간에서의 대칭화 단계, 구분이 없어지는 단계로 구분하였다.systems. We believe that this taxonomy is a significant contribution because it adds clarity, completeness, and "global perspective" to workflow architectural discussions. The vocabulary suggested here

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Error Analysis of Waterline-based DEM in Tidal Flats and Probabilistic Flood Vulnerability Assessment using Geostatistical Simulation (지구통계학적 시뮬레이션을 이용한 수륙경계선 기반 간석지 DEM의 오차 분석 및 확률론적 침수 취약성 추정)

  • KIM, Yeseul;PARK, No-Wook;JANG, Dong-Ho;YOO, Hee Young
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this paper is to analyze the spatial distribution of errors in the DEM generated using waterlines from multi-temporal remote sensing data and to assess flood vulnerability. Unlike conventional research in which only global statistics of errors have been generated, this paper tries to quantitatively analyze the spatial distribution of errors from a probabilistic viewpoint using geostatistical simulation. The initial DEM in Baramarae tidal flats was generated by corrected tidal level values and waterlines extracted from multi-temporal Landsat data in 2010s. When compared with the ground measurement height data, overall the waterline-based DEM underestimated the actual heights and local variations of the errors were observed. By applying sequential Gaussian simulation based on spatial autocorrelation of DEM errors, multiple alternative error distributions were generated. After correcting errors in the initial DEM with simulated error distributions, probabilities for flood vulnerability were estimated under the sea level rise scenarios of IPCC SERS. The error analysis methodology based on geostatistical simulation could model both uncertainties of the error assessment and error propagation problems in a probabilistic framework. Therefore, it is expected that the error analysis methodology applied in this paper will be effectively used for the probabilistic assessment of errors included in various thematic maps as well as the error assessment of waterline-based DEMs in tidal flats.

Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

Localization using Neural Networks and Push-Pull Estimation based on RSS from AP to Mobile Device (통신기지국과 모바일장치간의 수신신호강도를 기반으로 하는 신경망과 푸쉬-풀 평가를 이용한 위치추정)

  • Cho, Seong-Jin;Lee, Sung-Young
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.19D no.3
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2012
  • Although the development of Global Positioning System (GPS) are more and more mature, its accuracy is just acceptable for outdoor positioning, not positioning for the indoor of building and the underpass. For the positioning application area for the indoor of building and the underpass, GPS even cannot achieve that accuracy because of the construction materials while the requirement for accurate positioning in the indoor of building and the underpass, because a space, a person is necessary, may be very small space with several square meters in the indoor of building and the underpass. The Received Signal Strength (RSS) based localization is becoming a good choice especially for the indoor of building and the underpass scenarios where the WiFi signals of IEEE 802.11, Wireless LAN, are available in almost every indoor of building and the underpass. The fundamental requirement of such localization system is to estimate location from Access Point (AP) to mobile device using RSS at a specific location. The Multi-path fading effects in this process make RSS to fluctuate unpredictably, causing uncertainty in localization. To deal with this problem, the combination for the method of Neural Networks and Push-Pull Estimation is applied so that the carried along the devices can learn and make the decision of position using mobile device where it is in the indoor of building and the underpass.

Development of New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Seismic Coefficients of Korea Part I: Application and Verification of a Novel Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Procedure (신(新) 확률론적 지진재해분석 및 국내 지진계수 개발 Part I: 신(新) 확률론적 지진재해분석 기법 적용 및 검증)

  • Park, Duhee;Kwak, Dong-Yeop;Jeong, Chang-Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2009
  • The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) calculates the probability of exceedance of a certain ground motion parameter within a finite period at a site of interest. PSHA is very robust in that it can account for the uncertainties in seismic source, wave passage effect, and seismic site effects and hence, it is the most widely used method in quantifying the future earthquake induced ground vibration. This paper evaluates the applicability of a new PSHA that is alleged to be able to reproduce the results of a conventional PSHA method, but generates a series of earthquake scenarios and corresponding ground motion time histories that are compatible with the scenarios. In the application, a 40,000 year period is simulated, during which 16,738 virtual earthquakes have occurred. The seismic hazard maps are generated from the outputs of the new PSHA. Comparisons with the maps generated by the conventional PSHA method demonstrated that the new PSHA can successfully reproduce the results of a conventional PSHA. The new PSHA may not be very meaningful in itself. However, the real advantage of the method is that it can be used to develop probabilisitic seismic site coefficients. The suite of generated ground motion time histories are used to develop probabilistic site coefficients in the companion paper.

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Comparison Impulse Response Method with Method of Characteristics for Transient Analysis in a Pipeline System with hydraulic devices (수리구조물이 부착된 관망에서의 천이류 해석에 대한 임펄스응답법과 특성선방법의 비교 연구)

  • Song, Yong-Seok;Jang, Il;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1179-1183
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    • 2007
  • 관망 내에서 흐름의 연속 방정식과 운동량 방정식을 상 미분으로 전개하여 해석한 특성선 방법은 주로 가압 관망체계(Pressurized Pipeline System)에서의 부정류 해석(Unsteady Analysis)에 사용 된다. 그러나 이특성선 방법은 천이류 해석을 위한 관망 재구성 과정에서 Courant수 조건의 만족을 위한 관의 재배열에 천문학적인 계산용량과 시간이 필요하다는 단점이 있다. 이는 현장 적용 시 압력파 전파속도의 불확실성과 연계되어 상당한 장해요소가 되고 있다. 이에 대안적인 방법으로서 임펄스응답법이 개발되었다. 이는 경계지점에서 복소수 유량에 대한 복소수 수두의 비율로써 정의된 관망에서의 수리임피던스를 역퓨리에 변환에 적용하여, 주파수 영역의 수치를 시간 영역으로 변환하여 응답함수를 산출한 후, 산출된 응답함수와 구해진 경계지점에서의 유량과의 적분을 통하여 임의의 지점에서의 수두 및 유량을 계산하는 방법이다. 임펄스 응답법은 관 부속물관의 특성을 기술하는 수학적 표현의 난해함으로 인해 지금까지는 단일관에 대한 연구에만 국한되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 임펄스응답법을 수리구조물이 부착된 관망에 적용하여 다양한 조건에서 천이류 분석을 시행하였다. 즉, 에어챔버 및 서지탱크와 같은 수리구조물을 각각에 대한 수리임피던스를 구하고, 가지관 및 통합 관성항으로 취급하여 수리구조물을 처리하였다. 그리고 이러한 결과를 특성선방법과 비교하여 그 적절성을 검증하였는데, 특성선 방법에 의한 모의 결과와 비교하였을 때, 일치하는 결과를 나타내었다. 임펄스응답법에 의한 모의 결과에서 감쇄효과를 과대평가하는 경향이 관찰되었다. 이는 임펄스 응답법의 가정에 기인한 것으로써 난류 상태의 흐름에서 상당한 불일치를 가져올 수 있으나, 수리 구조물에 의한 수격압이 감쇄되는 과정에서 대부분 흐름이 층류 상태로 전환된다고 가정 할 때는 상당한 적용성이 있다. 본 연구는 수리구조물이 부착된 관망의 해석함에 있어서 임펄스응답법의 적용이 가능함을 보였고, 이는 보다 복잡한 관망에서의 천이류 해석이 가능함을 시사한다.

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Evaluation of Edge Detector′s Smoothness using Fuzzy Ambiguity (퍼지 애매성을 이용한 에지검출기의 평활화 정도평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Yong;Han, Joon-Hee
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.28 no.9
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    • pp.649-661
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    • 2001
  • While the conventional edge detection can be considered as the problem of determining the existence of edges at certain locations, the fuzzy edge modeling can be considered as the problem of determining the membership values of edges. Thus, if the location of an edge is unclear, or if the intensity function is different from the ideal edge model, the degree of edgeness at the location is represented as a fuzzy membership value. Using the concept of fuzzy edgeness, an automatic smoothing parameter evaluation and selection method for a conventional edge detector is proposed. This evaluation method uses the fuzzy edge modeling, and can analyze the effect of smoothing parameter to determine an optimal parameter for a given image. By using the selected parameter we can detect least ambiguous edges of a detection method for an image. The effectiveness of the parameter evaluation method is analyzed and demonstrated using a set of synthetic and real images.

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A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

A Study on Technological Forecasting of Next-Generation Display Technology (차세대 디스플레이 기술의 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Ki-Woong;Park, Sang-Sung;Shin, Young-Geun;Jung, Won-Gyo;Jang, Dong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.2923-2934
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.