• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성 도입

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Geostatistical Integration Analysis of Geophysical Survey and Borehole Data Applying Digital Map (수치지도를 활용한 탄성파탐사 자료와 시추조사 자료의 지구통계학적 통합 분석)

  • Kim, Hansaem;Kim, Jeongjun;Chung, Choongki
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2014
  • Borehole investigation which is mainly used to figure out geotechnical characterizations at construction work has the benefit that it provides a clear and convincing geotechnical information. But it has limitations to get the overall information of the construction site because it is performed at point location. In contrast, geophysical measurements like seismic survey has the advantage that the geological stratum information of a large area can be characterized in a continuous cross-section but the result from geophysics survey has wide range of values and is not suitable to determine the geotechnical design values directly. Therefore it is essential to combine borehole data and geophysics data complementally. Accordingly, in this study, a three-dimensional spatial interpolation of the cross-sectional distribution of seismic refraction was performed using digitizing and geostatistical method (krigring). In the process, digital map were used to increase the trustworthiness of method. Using this map, errors of ground height which are broken out in measurement from boring investigation and geophysical measurements can be revised. After that, average seismic velocity are derived by comparing borehole data with geophysical speed distribution data of each soil layer. During this process, outlier analysis is adapted. On the basis of the average seismic velocity, integrated analysis techniques to determine the three-dimensional geological stratum information is established. Finally, this analysis system is applied to dam construction field.

Developing Future Oriented Curriculum for Bring - Up of the Hospital Management Experts ; An Exploratory Investigation - (병원경영 전문가 양성을 위한 교과과정 개발 - 탐색적 접근방법을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jung-Woo;Kim, Young-Bae;Park, Won-Peel
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.12
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    • pp.699-709
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    • 2009
  • The most important property for coming up to the global change and leading the knowledge-based future is human resources who has capacity to make a high value-added knowledge. For whom teaching knowledge and experiences related to the managing medical organization, it is very important and significant to make efforts to reflect educational goal, contents and teaching methods satisfying the new era's demands in the curriculum quickly. To develop a hospital management curriculum which is receptive to the change of medical industry and educational circumstances, analysing syllabuses of 19 departments of the year 2007 and surveying of professors, students and persons in charges of hospital administration are used. The syllabuses of 19 departments of 22 colleges were opened for this study. The medical record and other subjects take the most part of curriculums, while the number of subjects related to management or administrational practice are relatively small. The short of these subjects are obstacles to cultivate capacity and quality of students medical organizations look for. As the result of satisfaction measurement, hospital-management professors gave 3.41 points, students gave 3.29 points to the current curriculum and administrators who has been experienced to employ graduates majored in medical management gave 3.06 points.(5 points = full mark) Alternative ways are suggested to complement these problems as below: Strengthening and deepening study such subjects as strategy planning, management, marketing, managing medical disputes, quality improvement, PR, advertisement; changing informations and establishing cooperative programs between school and industry.

Soil Resilience and Threat Factors Related to Agricultural Environment (농업환경 분야에서의 토양 리질리언스와 그 위협 요인)

  • Kim, Min-Suk;Min, Hyun-Gi;Hyun, Seung-Hun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.26-42
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    • 2020
  • Soils are the basis for plant rooting and ecosystem creation, the site of life for humankind, and require much time for their creation, so there will be no disagreement about the importance and necessity of soil conservation and management. Soil resilience is the ability of soils to maintain their original structure and function (resistance and recovery) from various kinds of disturbances, and is an indispensable field of study that prepares for a future with high uncertainty and unpredictability. Therefore, this study summarizes the concept and necessity of soil resilience, which is not yet widely known in Korea, and the contents of previous studies were reviewed. This study was carried out with the aim of contributing to lowering the threshold for entry into resilience research for domestic and foreign researchers who are new to soil resilience. In the first part of this study, we introduced resilience and soil resilience, and in the second part, we summarized the main causes of stress or disturbance that have been studied by many soil resilience researches. This makes it easy to find the references authors need. It is virtually impossible to find the same soil environment because there is no same area on the earth with all the same rock, climate, human activity, and culture, suggesting that each soil has its own uniqueness. Therefore, the researcher who wants to utilize the results of this study should take into consideration the specificity of the soil and the region to which the soil resilience is introduced, and modify it if necessary. In addition, efforts should be made to strengthen the network of soil resilience researchers to create a basis for sharing and actively utilizing the research results.

Default Risk Mitigation Effect of Financial Structure and Characteristic in BOT Project Finance (BOT 프로젝트 파이낸스의 금융구조 및 특성의 채무불이행 위험완화 효과)

  • Jun, Jae-Bum;Lee, Jae-Sue;Lee, Sam-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2011
  • One of the advantages of BOT PF(Project Finance) is the government can be protected from risks involved in projects as the private finances, builds, and operates relevant projects. Moreover, the private may avoid outstanding responsibility in case of default thanks to BOT PF's unique financial structure and characteristics. However, despite increasing attention on risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF to default risk with emerging controversies of capital crunch, introduction of IFRS, and contingent liabilities, valuation of default risk mitigation effect caused by financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF still seems sophisticated due to uncertain cash flows, complexly layered contracts, and their interaction. So, this paper is to show the theoretical frame to assess the default risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF with option pricing and related financial economic theories and to provide some meaningful implications. Finally, this research shows that the financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF help mitigate the default risk and default risk mitigation effect increases as change of relevant variables on financial feasibility gets the BOT project less financially feasible.

A Study on Methodology for Improving Demand Forecasting Models in the Designated Driver Service Market (대리운전 시장의 지역별 수요 예측 모형의 성능 향상을 위한 방법론 연구)

  • Min-Seop Kim;Ki-Kun Park;Jae-Hyeon Heo;Jae-Eun Kwon;Hye-Rim Bae
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays, the Designated Driver Services employ dynamic pricing, which adapts in real-time based on nearby driver availability, service user volume, and current weather conditions during the user's request. The uncertain volatility is the main cause of price increases, leading to customer attrition and service refusal from driver. To make a good Designated Driver Services, development of a demand forecasting model is required. In this study, we propose developing a demand forecasting model using data from the Designated Driver Service by considering normal and peak periods, such as rush hour and rush day, as prior knowledge to enhance the model performance. We propose a new methodology called Time-Series with Conditional Probability(TSCP), which combines conditional probability and time-series models to enhance performance. Extensive experiments have been conducted with real Designated Driver Service data, and the result demonstrated that our method outperforms the existing time-series models such as SARIMA, Prophet. Therefore, our study can be considered for decision-making to facilitate proactive response in Designated Driver Services.

음료$\cdot$다류 산업

  • 손헌수
    • Food Industry
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    • s.180
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    • pp.27-64
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    • 2004
  • 국내 제조업 전체에서 식음료품은 $6.31\%$를 차지하고 있다. 2000년을 기준으로 식품산업의 총매출실적을 보면 32조 3,463억원을 기록하고 있는데, 이 중 식료품은 26조 921억원, 알콜올음료를 포함한 음료품은 6조 2,516억원을 차지하고 있다. 2001년, 음료시장의 규모는 약 2조 7,900억원 정도였다. 빠르게 성장하던 전체 음료시장의 매출은 IMF 이후 약간 주춤하는 경향을 보였지만 지속적으로 매출액이 상승하여 2002년에는 3조 4천억원의 매출을 기록하였다. 이것은 사이다, 후레바, 정통주스, 냉장주스, 스포츠 음료, 두유 및 기능성음료 등이 성장을 주도하였다. 2003년 상반기, 1조 6,500억원으로 전년 동기대비 $3\%$ 감소하였지만 2003년 전체 실적은 대략 지난해와 비슷한 3조 5,000억원 규모로 전망된다. 내수량의 경우 탄산음료와 과즙음료가 감소하는 경향을 나타냈지만, 전체적으로는 증가하였다. 다류시장의 규모는 약 650억원, 캔커피시장의 규모는 2,400억원 정도로 나타났다. 이처럼 음료$\cdot$다류 시장은 전체적으로 약 4조원의 거대시장규모를 형성하고 있으며 내수가 지속적으로 증가되고 있어, 점차 시장규모도 증가할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 최근에는 기능성 음료 및 다류의 시장규모가 전체의 $20\%$에 달할 정도로 신장하였으며, 기능성음료 및 다류의 특허출원도 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 이는 비단 국내에서 뿐만 아니라 세계적인 현상이며 이러한 추세는 앞으로 지속될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 이처럼 기능성음료 및 다류의 성장이 두드러지고 있는 것은 시대가 변하면서 현대인들의 생활방식과 식생활 변화, 질병형태 다양화 등 여러 사회적 여건이 변화되고 있는데 기인하며, 현대인의 건강에 대한 관심의 증대는 음료시장의 쾌속성장과 틈새수요를 지속적으로 창출하고 있다. 현재 세계 건강기능성 식품의 시장 규모는 약 160조원이며, 국내의 경우 약 1조원에 이르는 실정이다. 이 중 기능성음료 시장은 국내에서 약 4천억원 규모로 기능성식품 시장의 $40\%$를 차지하고 있다. 이처럼 기능성음료 시장은 최근 연간 $7\%$ 정도의 빠른 성장률을 보이고 있으며 향후에도 $6.7\%$의 실질 연간 성장률을 지속할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 전해질(이온)음료나 식이섬유를 포함하는 다이어트음료에서 출발한 기능성음료는 숙취해소, 성인병 예방, 스트레스 해소에 이르기까지 각종 질병의 치료 및 예방으로 확대되고 있다. 앞으로는 BT 및 나노 기술 등을 이용한 신기능 소재들에 대한 다각적인 효능의 규명에 따른 음료$\cdot$다류 소재의 개발과 더불어 체질개선, 다이어트, 숙취해소 등의 특정한 기능성과 관련한 음료$\cdot$다류의 특허출원이 계속될 것으로 전망된다. 복잡한 한약의 제조과정을 단순화하여 티백이나 캔 형태로 만든 맛과 기능이 조화된 음료$\cdot$다류 분야의 연구개발이 지속될 것으로 보이며, 시장 규모의 확대와 더불어 기능성과 간편성을 동시에 추구하는 신세대 소비자들의 성향을 겨냥하여 기존의 음료$\cdot$다류 전문 업체 외에도 제약회사 등의 비음료 업체도 다양한 형태의 음료$\cdot$다류 기술개발을 지속할 것으로 예상되고 있다. 특히 새로운 신기능성 소재를 개발하는 것은 고부가가치 기술로써 BT, NT 등의 최첨단 기술의 발전과 도입으로 인해 그동안 수입에 의존하던 기능성 소재들도 국내 기업들의 축전된 기반기술을 통하여 대거 참입할 것으로 보인다. 하지만, 여러 업체의 음료$\cdot$다류시장 진출에 따라 야기될 수 있는 비위생이고 효능이 불확실한 식품의 유통, 업체간의 과열경쟁에 따른 유통질서 문란 등은 모처럼 활기를 되찾은 음료$\cdot$다류 분야의 기술개발을 위축시킬 수도 있으므로 정부차원에서 체계적이고 효율적인 관리가 조속히 이루어져야 할 것이며 이를 제도적으로 뒷받침하기 위한 정책이 수립되고 시행되어야 할 것으로 보인다. 특히, 원료적인 측면에서의 무역 불균형은 반드시 해소되어야 할 부분이다. 대부분이 수입 기능성 원료에 의존하고 있는 현실에서 국내의 BT 기술 확충에 더욱 많은 투자와 노력이 집중되어야 할 것이다. 세계적으로 경쟁이 될 수 있는 기능성 소재의 개발과 이를 통한 신기능 음료의 개발은 단순한 수학적 계산을 넘어서 국가의 기술력을 홍보할수 있는 좋은 계기가 되기 때문이다. 바야흐로 음료$\cdot$다류 분야에 대한 열기가 식품시장을 주도하면서, 시장이 안정적으로 확대되기 위해서는 지속적인 기술개발이 이루어져야 한다는 것은 재론의 여지가 없다고 하겠다.

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An Analysis of the Imported Consumer Goods Distribution Sector of Korea: From a Vertical Structure Viewpoint (수입소비재(輸入消費財) 유통구조(流通構造)의 효율화(效率化) 방안(方案))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.3-33
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    • 1991
  • Since the early 1980's, the Korean government has gradually been widening the Korean market to foreign consumer goods. This, combined with the increased purchasing power of the Korean consumers resulting from the continued economic growth of the country, has sparked a spectacular influx of foreign consumer goods into Korea, ranging from BMW's to chopsticks. Import of foreign consumer goods amounted to more than 6 billion dollars in 1989 and is continuing to grow at a rapid rate. The increased import of foreign consumer goods doubtlessly improved the overall welfare of the Korean consumers by providing them with a wider range of options to choose from, by lowering the prices of some of the consumer goods domestically produced, and also by forcing the producers of some Korean goods to face competition with better foreign goods, thus giving them an incentive to raise the quality of their products. However, it is agreed by most economists that this increase in general welfare has been much smaller than what they had expected at the outset. Consumer prices of most imported consumer goods are easily double the import price, and in some cases, more than treble the import prices. Further, there has not been a noticeable drop in the prices of domestically produced consumer goods. Much of the blame has been attributed to the distribution sector of Korea. The objective of this paper is to analyze the imported consumer goods distribution sector of Korea, focusing on the possible sources of the poor performance of that sector, and to make policy suggestions that could potentially increase the welfare. This paper differs from all the previous research by others on this subject in that it analyzes the imported consumer goods distribution sector of Korea as a vertical structure. The distribution sector of an imported consumer good is a vertical structure since it consists of an international market, an import stage, and domestic wholesale and retail markets, in that order vertically. Our study naturally includes the analysis of the vertical restraints as well as the analysis of the industrial organization of each horizontal stage in the vertical structure. Each horizontal component of the imported consumer goods distribution sector is basically a monopolistically competitive market differentiated by characteristics of goods and by the locations and the services of firms. Further, restrictive dealership and resale price maintenance are found to be widely in use. Our main findings are the follwing; First, most consumer goods are imported monopolistically or oligopolistically through restrictive dealership contracts between foreign producers and domestic importers. Such restrictive dealership gives importers market power in the domestic market and explains many of the large discrepancies betwen the consumer prices and the import prices of many goods. Korean anti - trust law does not cover the issues arising from the market power of an importer resulting from a restrictive dealership contract. Second, some major producers of Korean goods are also importers of foreign goods that are substitutes of their products. The import of substitutes by major domestic producers is anti - competitive because it tends to raise the prices of both domestic goods and foreign goods, and also because it reduces the incentive of the domestic producers to raise the quality of their products. Third, wholesalers and retailers widely use resale price maintenance as a price fixing mechanism, and while this is against the anti- trust law, it seldom gets noticed. Fourth, the high level of rents of real estate for commercial use works as an entry barrier to the distribution sector and results in reduced competition by the firms in that sector. Finally, there are information problems. Consumers have inferior information to firms about the quality of a foreign consumer good that they have not tried before. Such information asymmetry often enables firms to raise prices. In addition, information asymmetry between importers frequently delays the import of cheaper substitutes. In order to alleviate the problems indentified above, we suggest the following policy changes. The government should strengthen the anti - trust law and its enforcement to regulate restrictive import contracts, import of competing goods by major domestic producers, and RPM by wholesalers and retailers that is aimed at price fixing. In addition, the government should loosen its tight real estate policy to encourage investment in the distribution sector. Finally, we suggest that the import price revelation policy that has been in use for some items since 1990 be expanded to most imported consumer goods that are introduced for the first time to give consumer better information and be used only for the period of time needed to inform sufficient number of consumers.

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Salvage with Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty after the Failure of Proximal Humeral Tumor Treatment (근위 상완골 종양 치료 실패 후 역 견관절 전치환물을 이용한 구제술)

  • Jeon, Dae-Geun;Cho, Wan Hyeong;Kim, Bum Suk;Park, Hwanseong
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.505-512
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Many reconstruction methods have been attempted after an en-bloc resection of the proximal humerus. In particular, the introduction of reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) has made a breakthrough in the functional recovery of the shoulder. Nevertheless, RSA has limitations when the humeral bone stock loss is significant. In addition, it is unclear if RSA is effective in patients showing failure with non-operative treatment of a proximal humeral tumor. Materials and Methods: A reconstruction was performed using an overlapping allograft-RSA composite for 11 patients with a failed proximal humeral construct. Delayed RSA was performed on 6 patients with failed non-operative treatment. The pre- and postoperative Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score and the complications were addressed. Results: Overlapping allograft-RSA composite afforded a stable construct in 11 failed proximal humeral reconstructions and the patient's chief complaints were resolved. The mean time to the union of overlapped allograft-host junction was 5.5 months. Average preoperative MSTS score of 20.3 point increased to 25.7 point, postoperatively. Four of the six patients who had RSA within 4 years from the index operation showed arm elevation of more than $90^{\circ}$ whereas the remaining 5 patients showed some disability. The complications include one case each of dislocation and aseptic infection, which were resolved by changing the polyethylene liner and scar revision, respectively. None of the 6 patients who underwent delayed RSA after the failure of non-operative treatment showed arm elevation more than $90^{\circ}$. Conclusion: An overlapping allograft-RSA composite is a simple and reliable reconstructive modality in patients with massive bone loss. In patients with metastatic cancer necessitating a surgical resection at presentation, early conversion to RSA is recommended to secure functional recovery.

Studies on the Inheritance of Heading Date in Wheat(Triticum aestivum L. em Thell) (소맥(Triticum aestivum L. em Thell)의 출수기 유전에 관한 연구)

  • Chang-Hwan Cho
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.15
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 1974
  • Introducing genes for earliness of wheat varieties is important to develop early varieties in winter wheat. In oder to obtain basic informations on the response of heading to the different day length and temperature treatments and on the inheritance of heading dates, experiments were conducted at the field and greenhouse of the Crop Experiment Station, Suwon. Varieties used in this experiments were, early variety Yecora F70, medium varieties Suke #169, Parker and Yukseung #3, and late varieties Changkwang, Bezostaia, Sturdy and Blueboy. The parents and F$_1$s of partial diallel crosses of above eight varieties were subjected the following four different treatments; 1. high temperature and long day, 2. high temperature and short day, 3. low temperature and long day, and 4. low temperature and short day. The same materials were grown also in field condition. Parents, F$_1$ and F$_2$ generation were grown also in both greenhouse under high temperature and short day and in field. The results obtained were summarized as follow: 1. No effects of temperature and daylength on the number of leaves on the main stem were found when -varieties were vernalized. The number of main stem leaves were fewer for spring type of varieties than for winter type of varieties. 2. The effects of temperature and daylength on the days to flag leaf opening were dependent on the speed of leaf emergence. The speed of leaf emergence were faster for lower leaves than for upper leaves. 3. The response to short day and long day (earliness of narrow sense) of varieties were found to be direct factor responsible to physiology of heading dates in vernalized varieties. Great difference of varieties to heading date was found in high temperature and short day treatment, but less differences were found in high temperature and long day, low temperature and long day and low temperature and short day treatments respectively. The least varietal difference for heading dates was found in the field condition. 4. Changkwang and Parker were found to be the most sensitive to short day treatment (photosensitive) and the heading of these varieties were delayed by short day treatment. No great varietal differences were found among other varieties. 5. Varietal differences of heading dates due to daylength were greater in high temperature than in low temperature. 6. Varietal differences of heading dates due to temperature were not great. but in general the heading dates of varieties were faster under high temperature than under low temperature. 7. Earliness of heading dates was due to partial dominance effect of genes involved in any condition. The degree of dominance was greater under short day than under long day treatment. 8. The varietal differences of heading date under high temperature and long day were due to earliness or narrow sense (response to long day) of varieties. The degree of dominance was greater for Yecora F70, spring type than for other winter type of varieties. No differences or less differences of degree of dominance was found among winter type of varieties. The estimated number of effective factor concerned in the earliness of narrow sense was one pair of allele with minor genes. 9. The insensitivity of varieties to short day treatment in heading dates was due to single dominant gene effect. Under the low temperature the sensitivity of varieties to short day treatment was less apparent. 10. The earliness of short day and long day (earliness of narrow sense) sensitivities of varieties appearea to be due to partial dominance of earliness over lateness. In strict sense, the degree of the dominance should be distinguished. 11. Dominant gene effects were found for the thermo-sensitivity of varieties, and the effect was less, significant than the earliness in narrow sense. 12. One pair of allele, ee and EE, for photosensitivity was responsible for the difference in the heading dates between Changkwang and Suke #169. Two pairs of alleles, ee, enen and EE, EnEn. appeared to be responsible for the difference between Changkwang and Yecora F70. The effects of EE and EnEn were, additive to the earliness and the effects of EE were greater than EnEn under short day. However, the effects of EE were not evident in long day but the effects of EnEn were observed in long day. 13. Two pairs of dominant alleles for the earliness were estimated from the analysis of F$_1$ diallels in the field but the effects of these alleles in F$_2$ were not apparent due to low temperature and short day treatment in early part of growth and high temperature and long day treatment in later part of growth. The F$_2$ population shows continuous variation due to environmental effects and due to other minor gene effects. 14. The heritabilities for heading dates were ranged from 0.51 to 0.72, indicating that the selection in early generation might be effective. The extent of heritability for heading dates varied with environments; higher magnitude of heritability was obtained in short day treatment and high temperature compared with long day and low temperature treatments. The heritabilities of heading date due to response to short day were 0.86 in high temperature and 0.76 in low temperature. The heritabilities of heading date due to temperature were not significantly high. 15. The correlation coefficients of heading dates to the number of grains per spike, weight of 1, 000 grains. and grain yield were positive and high, indicating the difficulties of selections of high yielding lines from early population. But no significant correlation coefficient was obtained between the earliness and the number of spikes, indicating the effective selection for high tillering from early varieties for high yielding.

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