• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성평가

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A Study on the Activation of Pet Plant Kit Industry - Catering to the Demands of Industry Professionals - (반려식물 키트 산업의 활성화 방안에 관한 연구 - 산업 종사자의 수요를 중심으로 -)

  • Roh, Hoi-Eun;Lim, Chae-Jun;Lee, Min-Ji;Jo, Jang-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.46-58
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to understand the current status of the pet plant kit industry and determine the priorities for support policies to revitalize the industry. SWOT analysis assessed the industry's current state, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used with industry professionals to prioritize support policies. The SWOT analysis results indicated that SO strategies involve leveraging government support policies to enhance marketing and developing eco-friendly DIY products. WO strategies include launching advertising campaigns to increase market recognition and establishing strategic partnerships to expand distribution. ST strategies focus on strengthening price competitiveness and proposing unique values, while WT strategies involve improving production processes and enhancing product quality based on consumer feedback. The AHP analysis identified 3 top-level and 12 sub-level evaluation items, with data collected from 17 expert surveys. The results showed the 'entry phase' (0.482), 'activation phase' (0.397), and 'advanced phase' (0.121) were prioritized, with 'organizing seminars' (0.181) as the most crucial subcategory and 'support for kit development' (0.020) as the least. The pet plant kit industry is in its early stages, and appropriate policy incubation can help activate the garden industry. This study provides foundational information on the industry's needs for activation.

Evaluation of hydrologic risk of drought in Boryeong according to climate change scenarios using scenario-neutral approach (시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 보령시 가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Han, Young Man;Seo, Seung Beom;Kim, Daeha;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2024
  • To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

Comparison of score-penalty method and matched-field processing method for acoustic source depth estimation (음원 심도 추정을 위한 스코어-패널티 기법과 정합장 처리 기법의 비교)

  • Keunhwa Lee;Wooyoung Hong;Jungyong Park;Su-Uk Son;Ho Seuk Bae;Joung-Soo Park
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.314-323
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    • 2024
  • Recently, a score-penalty method has been used for the acoustic passive tracking of marine mammals. The interesting aspect of this technique lies in the loss function, which has a penalty term representing the mismatch between the measured signal and the modeled signal, while the traditional time-domain matched-field processing is positively considering the match between them. In this study, we apply the score-penalty method into the depth estimation of a passive target with a known source waveform. Assuming deep ocean environments with uncertainties in the sound speed profile, we evaluate the score-penalty method, comparing it with the time-domain matched field processing method. We shows that the score-penalty method is more accurate than the time-domain matched field processing method in the ocean environment with weak mismatch of sound speed profile, and has better efficiency. However, in the ocean enviroment with strong mismatch of the sound speed profile, the score-penalty method also fails in the depth estimation of a target, similar to the time-domain matched-field processing method.

Monte-Carlo Simulations of Non-ergodic Solute Transport from Line Sources in Isotropic Mildly Heterogeneous Aquifers (불균질 등방 대수층 내 선형오염원으로부터 기원된 비에르고딕 용질 이동에 관한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션)

  • Seo Byong-min
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.20-31
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    • 2005
  • Three dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of non-ergodic transport of a lion-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity in isotropic heterogeneous aquifers were conducted. The log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field. Significant efforts are made to reduce tile simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume and plume centroid variances were simulated with 1600 Monte Carlo runs for three variances of log K, ${\sigma}_Y^2=0.09,\;0.23$, and 0.46, and three dimensionless lengths of line plume sources normal to the mean velocity. The simulated second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are generally larger than the first order results. The first order theoretical results significantly underestimated the simulated dimensionless transverse moments for the aquifers of large ${\sigma}_Y^2$ and large dimensionless time. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching in all cases simulated, and transport In transverse directions may reach ergodic condition much slower than that in longitudinal direction. The evolution of the contaminant transported in a heterogeneous aquifer is not affected by the shape of the initial plume but affected mainly by the degree of the heterogeneity and the size of the initial plume.

Modified Traditional Calibration Method of CRNP for Improving Soil Moisture Estimation (산악지형에서의 CRNP를 이용한 토양 수분 측정 개선을 위한 새로운 중성자 강도 교정 방법 검증 및 평가)

  • Cho, Seongkeun;Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Jeong, Jaehwan;Oh, Seungcheol;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.665-679
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    • 2019
  • Mesoscale soil moisture measurement from the promising Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) is expected to bridge the gap between large scale microwave remote sensing and point-based in-situ soil moisture observations. Traditional calibration based on $N_0$ method is used to convert neutron intensity measured at the CRNP to field scale soil moisture. However, the static calibration parameter $N_0$ used in traditional technique is insufficient to quantify long term soil moisture variation and easily influenced by different time-variant factors, contributing to the high uncertainties in CRNP soil moisture product. Consequently, in this study, we proposed a modified traditional calibration method, so-called Dynamic-$N_0$ method, which take into account the temporal variation of $N_0$ to improve the CRNP based soil moisture estimation. In particular, a nonlinear regression method has been developed to directly estimate the time series of $N_0$ data from the corrected neutron intensity. The $N_0$ time series were then reapplied to generate the soil moisture. We evaluated the performance of Dynamic-$N_0$ method for soil moisture estimation compared with the traditional one by using a weighted in-situ soil moisture product. The results indicated that Dynamic-$N_0$ method outperformed the traditional calibration technique, where correlation coefficient increased from 0.70 to 0.72 and RMSE and bias reduced from 0.036 to 0.026 and -0.006 to $-0.001m^3m^{-3}$. Superior performance of the Dynamic-$N_0$ calibration method revealed that the temporal variability of $N_0$ was caused by hydrogen pools surrounding the CRNP. Although several uncertainty sources contributed to the variation of $N_0$ were not fully identified, this proposed calibration method gave a new insight to improve field scale soil moisture estimation from the CRNP.

Study on the Possibility of Estimating Surface Soil Moisture Using Sentinel-1 SAR Satellite Imagery Based on Google Earth Engine (Google Earth Engine 기반 Sentinel-1 SAR 위성영상을 이용한 지표 토양수분량 산정 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Younghyun Cho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.229-241
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    • 2024
  • With the advancement of big data processing technology using cloud platforms, access, processing, and analysis of large-volume data such as satellite imagery have recently been significantly improved. In this study, the Change Detection Method, a relatively simple technique for retrieving soil moisture, was applied to the backscattering coefficient values of pre-processed Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery product based on Google Earth Engine (GEE), one of those platforms, to estimate the surface soil moisture for six observatories within the Yongdam Dam watershed in South Korea for the period of 2015 to 2023, as well as the watershed average. Subsequently, a correlation analysis was conducted between the estimated values and actual measurements, along with an examination of the applicability of GEE. The results revealed that the surface soil moisture estimated for small areas within the soil moisture observatories of the watershed exhibited low correlations ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 for both VH and VV polarizations, likely due to the inherent measurement accuracy of the SAR satellite imagery and variations in data characteristics. However, the surface soil moisture average, which was derived by extracting the average SAR backscattering coefficient values for the entire watershed area and applying moving averages to mitigate data uncertainties and variability, exhibited significantly improved results at the level of 0.5. The results obtained from estimating soil moisture using GEE demonstrate its utility despite limitations in directly conducting desired analyses due to preprocessed SAR data. However, the efficient processing of extensive satellite imagery data allows for the estimation and evaluation of soil moisture over broad ranges, such as long-term watershed averages. This highlights the effectiveness of GEE in handling vast satellite imagery datasets to assess soil moisture. Based on this, it is anticipated that GEE can be effectively utilized to assess long-term variations of soil moisture average in major dam watersheds, in conjunction with soil moisture observation data from various locations across the country in the future.

A Study on the Forest Vegetation of Deogyusan National Park (덕유산 국립공원 삼림식생에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Hwan;Oh, Jang-Geun;Lee, Nam-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2013
  • From March 2012 to January 2013, this study was conducted as a part of the project for making a precise electronic ecological zoning map of vegetation on a highly reduced scale of 1 to 5,000 with a view to improving management efficiency of national parks and enlarging the availability of the data produced from the basic research monitoring the resources of national parks. For the research accuracy and rapidity, a vegetation map was specially created for the on-the-site-vegetation research. To make the map more meticulous, we categorized the vegetation database into five groups: broadleaved forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest, rock vegetation and miscellaneous one. After comparing the results of the data built for the vegetation research and the actual research findings, it was made clear that vegetation of both categories was almost the same in case of broad-leaved forest with 72.20% and 78.45% respectively, and also equivalent in other groups like, for example, coniferous forest (16.70%, 13.41%), mixed forest (9.50%, 7.49%) and rock vegetation (0.60%, 0.15%). According to the precise vegetation map produced from the research, the deciduous broad-leaved forest was the most widely prevalent type in the correlated hierarchical classification of vegetation, occupying 65.78% of the overall vegetation. It was followed by mountain valley forest (15.17%), coniferous forest (10.90%), and plantation forest (7.00%) in order. It is particularly noteworthy that Mt. Deogyusan national park has retained a very stable and versatile forest vegetation in the outstanding state since approximately 20% of the mountain turns out to belong to the I grade vegetation conservation classification which contains climax forests, unique vegetation, subalpine vegetation, matured stands which are older than 50 years and etc.

Melodrama, the Paradox of Modern Imagination Coordinating Moral Norms and Emotions -Based on the Developmental Approach (멜로드라마, 도덕규범과 감정을 조율하는 근대적 상상력의 역설 -발생론적 접근을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung-Oak
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.9-54
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    • 2019
  • Since the birth of melodrama in the early Enlightenment era, it has flowed through various cultures and media. In order to grasp the principle of differentiation of melodrama and the direction of its change, a developmental approach to the formation process of melodrama is necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the formation process of modern melodrama and its aesthetic features around the time of the French Revolution. The modern melodrama was formed in the period between the end of the 18th century and the start of the 19th century. It was born at the intersectional point of the contradictions of the modern imagination and the political paradox of the French Revolution, which demanded an autonomous citizenship but did not recognize a woman as a citizen. The aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears reproduced in the modern melodrama is a political aspiration to restore a corrupt society by glamorizing a woman as a moral icon. This was an icon to save a society under divide and crisis and a coordination of emotions to conceal sexist violence in the politics of the exclusion of women. The aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears reproduced in modern melodrama has consistently been considered under negative evaluation such as a play of moral hypocrisy and vulgar drama. However, the academic interest in melodrama in the 1970s has been amplified due to the "Sirk-melo" which is a transition to the new aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears, encompassing not only women, but also races and classes. In modern society, entering the era of uncertainty, where various social problems, national disasters, and global disasters have become commonplace, 'the aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears' are shifting from gender differences to various victim narratives. Reviewing new theoretical trends and changes of recent melodrama as well as analyzing specific works are left as follow-up tasks.Since the birth of the melodrama in the early Enlightenment era, it has flowed through various cultures and media. In order to grasp the principle of differentiation of melodrama and the direction of its change, a developmental approach to the formation process of melodrama is basically necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the formation process of modern melodrama and its aesthetic features around the time of the French Revolution.

Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods (기준증발산량 산정방법들의 시공간적 보정에 대한 개선효과 평가)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.701-715
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    • 2020
  • This study compared several reference evapotranspiration estimated using eight methods such as FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM), Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, and Thornthwaite. In addition, by analyzing the monthly deviations of the results by the FAO PM and the remaining seven methods, monthly optimized correction coefficients were derived and the improvement effect was evaluated. These methods were applied to 73 automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration, where the climatological data are available at least 20 years. As a result of evaluating the reference evapotranspiration by applying the default coefficients of each method, a large fluctuation happened depending on the method, and the Hansen method was relatively similar to FAO PM. However, the Hamon and Jensen-Haise methods showed more large values than other methods in summer, and the deviation from FAO PM method was also large significantly. When comparing based on the region, the comparison with FAO PM method provided that the reference evapotranspiration estimated by other methods was overestimated in most regions except for eastern coastal areas. Based on the deviation from the FAO PM method, the monthly correction coefficients were derived for each station. The monthly deviation average that ranged from -46 mm to +88 mm before correction was improved to -11 mm to +1 mm after correction, and the annual average deviation was also significantly reduced by correction from -393 mm to +354 mm (before correction) to -33 mm to +9 mm (after correction). In particular, Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods using only temperature data also produced results that were not significantly different from FAO PM after correction. It can be also useful for forecasting long-term reference evapotranspiration using temperature data in climate change scenarios or predicting evapotranspiration using monthly or seasonal temperature forecasted values.

Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.