• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불능 확률

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Calculation of Probability of System Failure for Pipe Network with Surge Tank regarding Unsteady Flow (Surge Tank가 설치된 상수도관망에서 부정류를 고려한 불능확률 산정)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Jae;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2009
  • In the present study, a reliability analysis calculating the probability of system failure has been performed using cut set and results of numerical analysis for unsteady flow in pipe. Especially, the probability of system failure has been evaluated regarding the effect of valve closure which is a really important activity in operation of piping system. In spite of small amount of demand, it was found that fast valve closure can generate high probability of system failure. Furthermore, it was confirmed that surge tank can reduce the unsteady effects and probability of system failure in water distribution system. From the results, it was found that the unsteady flow has a significant effect on the probability of system failure Furthermore, it was able to find which pipe or cut set has high probability of system failure. So it could be used to determine which pipe or cut set has a priority of repair and replacement. Therefore, reliability analysis regarding unsteady flow has to be performed for the planning, designing, maintenance, and operation of piping system.

Prediction-Based Adaptive Selection Cooperation Schemes (예측 정보를 이용한 적응적 협력 선택기법)

  • Wang, Yu;Lee, Dong-Woo;Lee, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.46 no.11
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2009
  • This paper proposes two novel prediction-based adaptive selection cooperation schemes combined with a new relay selection strategy. In the proposed schemes, the destination predicts whether the transmission will be successful or not before a single relay is selected to transmit source's decoded data. Depending on the prediction, the destination feeds back a command to the whole network. Numerical results show that the proposed schemes combined with the relay selection strategy successfully reduce its outage probability, improve its throughput, save transmitted power, and prolong the lifetime of the network.

Performance Optimization Method of Relay undergo Co-Channel Interference using Power Splitting Protocol (전력 분배 프로토콜을 통한 동일 채널 간섭을 겪는 중계기의 성능 최적화 방안)

  • Kim, Tae-Wook;Kong, Hyung-Yun
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.67-71
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    • 2015
  • In this Paper, we proposed optimization of system performance, power splitting protocols applied to relay in the cooperative communication undergo co-channel interference. When relay adjust power distribution factors undergo co-channel interference, it is possible to optimize and maximize the channel capacity of the receiver. Because of energy haversting, interfence transfer to new power source. If finding the optimal power levels, to solve inability in system, and to increase the efficiency of the network. Finally, performance of the proposed protocol is analyzed in terms of outage probability, capacity of system.

The Reasonable SIL Determination by LOPA for HIPS Design of Flare Stack (LOPA분석에 의한 Flare Stack용 HIPS의 합리적 SIL결정)

  • Park, Jinhyung;Park, Kyoshik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2023.11a
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    • pp.221-221
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    • 2023
  • 1969년에 발간된 API521 1st edition에서는 Flare Load 저감용으로 적용되는 HIPS (High Integrity Protection System)는 모두 Pressure Safety Valve의 고장확률보다 낮은 SIL 3 (Safety Integrity Level)등급을 적용할 것을 요구하고 있다. Flare Stack 저감용 HIPS는 주로 압축기 출력압력상승, Reboiler Steam 과다주입, 전력공급중단냉각펌프고장 등에 의한 Flare 발생을 예방하기 위한 기능을 가진 SIF (Safety Instrumented Function)로 구성된다. 하지만 2007년도 발간된 API521 5th edition에서는 LOPA (Layer Of Protection Analysis) 분석을 통해 Target SIL을 도출하는 것으로 요구사항을 변경했다. 이에 따라 이번 연구에서는 Flare Load에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 시나리오 중 대표적인 시나리오를 대상으로 HAZOP(Hazard and Operability Study)과 LOPA분석을 실시해서 Target SIL이 어떻게 도출되는지를 연구했다. Flare Stack에서 Flare를 발생시키는 대표적인 시나리오들에 대해 LOPA분석을 실시한 결과 압축기 출력압력상승은 SIL 2, Reboiler Steam 과다주입은 SIL 3, 전력공급중단은 SIL 0, 냉각펌프고장은 SIL 0로 모두가 SIL 3 가 나오지는 않았다. SIF 설계 시 Target SIL을 만족시키는 것도 중요하지만 운전 시 SIL 등급이 계속 유지되게 하지 위해 인적오류, 시스템적 고장, 하드웨어고장 등에 의해 SIF 기능불능화가 되는 것을 예방하기 위한 기능안전관리시스템 (FSMS)를 적용하는 것도 중요하다.

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An Analysis of a Reverse Mortgage using a Multiple Life Model (연생모형을 이용한 역모기지의 분석)

  • Baek, HyeYoun;Lee, SeonJu;Lee, Hangsuck
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.531-547
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    • 2013
  • Multiple life models are useful in multiple life insurance and multiple life annuities when the payment times of benets in these insurance products are contingent on the future life times of at least two people. A reverse mortgage is an annuity whose monthly payments terminate at the death time of the last survivor; however, actuaries have used female life table to calculate monthly payments of a reverse mortgage. This approach may overestimate monthly payments. This paper suggests a last-survivor life table rather than a female life table to avoid the overestimation of monthly payments. Next, this paper derives the distribution of the future life time of last survivor, and calculates the expected life times of male, female and last survivor. This paper calculates principal limits and monthly payments in cases of male life table, female life table and last-survivor life table, respectively. Some numerical examples are discussed.

Reliability Analysis on Firewater Supply Facilities based on the Probability Theory with Considering Common Cause Failures (소방수 공급설비에 대한 공통원인고장을 고려한 확률론적 신뢰도 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we write down the definitions, their causes and the techniques of analysis as a theoretical consideration of common cause failures, and investigate the limitation and the importance of the common cause failures by applying to the analysis on the fire protection as a representative safety facility. As you can know in the reliability analysis, most impressive cause is the malfunctions of pumping operations; especially the common cause failure of two pumps is dominant. In other words, it is possible to assess system-reliability as twice as actual without CCF From these, CCF is extraordinarily important and the results are highly dependent on the CCF factor. And although it would increase with multiple installations, the reliability are not defined as linear with those multiplications. In addition, the differences in results due to the models for analysis are not significant, whereas the various sources of data produce highly different results. Therefore, we conclude that the reliabilities are dependent on the quality of the usable data much better than the variety of models. As a result, the basic and engineering device for the preventions of CCF of the multiple facilities is to design it as reliably as to design the fire-water pump. That is to say, we must assess those reliabilities using PFD whether they are appropriate to SIL (Safety Integrity Level) which is required for the reliability in SIS (Safety Instrumented System). The result of the analysis on the reliability of the fire-water supply with CCF shows that PFD is 3.80E-3, so that it cannot be said to be designed as safely as in the level of SIL5. However, without CCF, PFD is 1.82E-3 which means that they are designed as unsafely as before.

Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

Distinction and Tracking of Multiple Pingers Using a Single Frequency (단일 주파수에 의한 복수의 초음파 핑거의 식별 및 추적)

  • 신현옥
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.360-364
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    • 1990
  • To testy time division scheme, we performed some experiments in a circular water tank(13m in diameter and 1m deep). A result of that is shown in figure 4. The 2-dimensional position of the pinger was calculated by the method of hyperbolic line of position calculation. The resolution of the time difference on the base line is 2.5cm. In experiments, the multiple pingers of a single frequency were distinguished and tracked successfully. When the experiment is carried out in the water tank, some multi-path pulses always occur. To delete it, several 10 ms of time delay is inserted onto the program after a group of the normal signals are received. Some normal pulses are not received by the time delay, however there is no problem, practically, for the distinction and the tracking of the pulse. In 2-dimensional positioning, the pinger position can be calculated with three hydrophones. However, if four hydrophones are available, the positioning accuracy will be higher than three hydrophones only by some techniques. Another good feature of the use of four hydrophones is that the positioning of the pinger is capable if a hydrophone fails in receiving them. We also tested this distinguishing method in the field using another type pingers(APPENDIXA).

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