• Title/Summary/Keyword: 분위수 회귀

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A study on the determination of substrata using the information of exponential response rate by simulation studies (모의실험을 기반으로 지수형 응답률 보정을 위한 세부 층 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Joo-Won;Shin, Key-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.621-636
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    • 2018
  • Research on the application of informative sampling technique has been conducted in order to reduce the influence of non-response. Chung and Shin (Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 30, 993-1004, 2017) showed that the estimation accuracy improved when using exponential response rate information for the parameter estimation if the distribution of errors included in the super population model follows normal distribution. However this method divides the stratum into equally spaced substrata to obtain the sample weight of the informative sampling technique and shows that the accuracy of the estimation improves as the number of substrata increases. In this study, with the given number of total sample size, the optimal substratum boundary points are calculated using equal space, quantile, and LH algorithm; consequently, the results using those methods are compared through simulation. We also studied the criteria to determine the number of substrata and substratum boundaries that can be used in practice with various types of auxiliary variable distributions.

Splice Length of GFRP Rebars Based on Flexural Tests of Unconfined RC Members (RC 부재 휨 실험에 의한 GFRP 보강근의 이음길이 제안)

  • Choi, Dong-Uk;Chun, Sung-Chul;Ha, Sang-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2009
  • Glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars are sometimes used when corrosion of conventional reinforcing steel bar is of concern. In this study, a total of 36 beams and one-way slabs reinforced using GFRP bars were tested in flexure. Four different GFRP bars of 13 mm diameter were used in the test program. In most test specimens, the GFRP bars were lap spliced at center. All beams and slabs were tested under 4-point loads so that the spliced region be subject to constant moment. Test variables were splice lengths, cover thicknesses, and bar spacings. No stirrups were used in the spliced region so that the tests result in conservative bond strengths. Average bond stresses that develop between GFRP bars and concrete were determined through nonlinear analysis of the cross-sections. An average bond stress prediction equation was derived utilizing two-variable linear regression. A splice length equation based on 5% fractile concept was then developed. As a result of this study, a rational equation with which design splice lengths of the GFRP bars can be determined, was proposed.

Landslide Triggering Rainfall Threshold Based on Landslide Type (사면파괴 유형별 강우 한계선 설정)

  • Lee, Ji-Sung;Kim, Yun-Tae;Song, Young-Karb;Jang, Dae-Heung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2014
  • Most of slope failures have taken place between June and September in Korea, which cause a considerable damage to society. Rainfall intensity and duration are very significant triggering factors for landslide. In this paper, landslide-triggering rainfall threshold consisting of rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) was proposed. For this study, total 255 landslides were collected in landslide inventory during 1999 to 2012 from NDMI (National Disaster Management Institute), various reports, newspapers and field survey. And most of the required rainfall data were collected from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). The collected landslides were classified into three categories: debris flow, shallow landslide and unconfirmed. A rainfall threshold was proposed based on landslide type using statistical method such as quantile-regression method. Its validation was carried out based on 2013 landslide database. The proposed rainfall threshold was also compared with previous rainfall thresholds. The proposed landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds could be used in landslide early warning system in Korea.

Long-term Trend Analysis of Extreme Temperatures in East Asia Using Quantile Regression (분위수 회귀분석을 이용한 동아시아 지역 극한기온의 장기 추세 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Wook;Song, Kanghyun;Yoo, Young-Eun;Son, Seok-Woo;Jeong, Su-Jong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-169
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    • 2018
  • This study explores the long?term trends of extreme temperatures of 270 observation stations in East Asia (China, Japan, and Korea) for 1961?2013. The 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures (TN05%) and 95th percentile of daily maximum temperatures (TX95%), derived from the quantile regression, are particularly examined in term of their linear and nonlinear trends. The warming trends of TN05% are typically stronger than those of TX95% with more significant trends in winter than in summer for most stations. In both seasons, warming trends of TN05% tend to amplify with latitudes. The nonlinear trends, quantified by the $2^{nd}$?order polynomial fitting, exhibit different structures with seasons. While summer TN05% and TX95% were accelerated in time, winter TN05% underwent weakening of warming since the 2000s. These results suggest that extreme temperature trends in East Asia are not homogeneous in time and space.

Real-time private consumption prediction using big data (빅데이터를 이용한 실시간 민간소비 예측)

  • Seung Jun Shin;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.13-38
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    • 2024
  • As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

Dietary assessment according to intake of Korean soup and stew in Korean adults: Based on the 2011~2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 성인의 국물 음식류 섭취에 따른 식생활 평가 : 2011~2014 국민건강영양조사 자료를 이용하여)

  • Kwon, Yong-Suk;Han, Gyusang
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.335-346
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to conduct dietary assessment of Korean adults according to intake of Korean soup and stew. Methods: To accomplish this study, 20,926 adults aged 19 yr or higher who participated in the dietary intake survey (24 h recall method) were analyzed from the data of the 2011~2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The items included in the soup and stew were guk, tang, jjigae, jijimi, and jeongol. Results: Intakes of soup and stew of subjects were divided into quartiles; intake range by quartile was Q1: < 22.96 g, Q2: 22.96~98.75 g, Q3: 98.75~212.23 g, and Q4: $${\geq_-}212.24g$$. In the case of the Q4 group, male, married, employed, higher educated, and high income subjects showed increased intakes of soup and stew. In addition, sodium intake among nutrient intakes increased from 3,849.04 mg in Q1 group to 5,363.57 mg in Q4 group. Intakes of cereals/grains, potatoes/starches, legumes, seeds/nuts, vegetables, mushrooms, fruits, meat, fishes/shell fishes, milks/dairy products, oils/fats, and seasonings among all foods significantly increased from Q1 group to Q4 group. Lastly, in the multivariable regression analysis, male, higher age, married, eating breakfast, consumption of snacks, prepared meals from home/institution, average eating-out frequency per week, energy consumption, and sodium intake related parameters increased intake of Korean soup and stew. Conclusion: Excessive intake of sodium was related to high blood pressure and metabolic syndrome. Thus, there are needs to improve dietary guidelines and nutrition education for balanced intake of soup and stew.

Compression Lap Splice Length in Concrete of Compressive Strength from 40 to 70 MPa (40-70 MPa 콘크리트에서의 철근 압축이음 길이)

  • Chun, Sung-Chul;Lee, Sung-Ho;Oh, Bo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.401-408
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    • 2009
  • A compression lap splice becomes an important issue due to development of ultra-high strength concrete. Current design codes regarding compression lap splice do not utilize merits of the improved strength of ultra-high strength concrete. Especially, a compression lap splice can be calculated longer than a tension lap splice according to the codes because they do not consider effects of compressive strength of concrete and transverse reinforcement. This anomaly confuses engineers in practice. Design equation is proposed for compression lap splice in 40 to 70 MPa of compressive strength of concrete. The proposed equation is based on 51 specimens conducted by authors. Basic form of the equation includes main parameters which are derived from investigating test results. Through two-variable non-linear regression analysis of measured splice strengths, a strength equation of compression lap splices is then derived. A specified splice strength is defined using a 5% fractile coefficient and a lap length equation is constructed. By the proposed equation, the anomaly of lap lengths in tension and compression is got rid of. In addition, the equation has a reliability equivalent to those of the specified strengths of materials.