• Title/Summary/Keyword: 분위수 회귀분석

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Estimating Price Elasticity of Residential Water Demand in Korea Using Panel Quatile Model (패널 분위수회귀 모형을 사용한 우리나라 지방 상수도 생활용수 수요의 가격탄력성 추정)

  • Kim, Hyung-Gun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.195-214
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    • 2018
  • This study estimates the price elasticity of residential water demand in Korea. For that, annual panel data from the year of 2010 to 2013 for 161 local water services is estimated by using panel quantile model. As a result, the price elasticities of residental water demand in Korea are estimated to be between -0.156 and -0.189 depending on its quantile. In addition, the study finds that the estimated elasticity of residential water demand by traditional conditional mean regression is relatively more influenced by high demand areas because the distribution of residental water demand in Korea is left-skewed.

Landslide Triggering Rainfall Threshold Based on Landslide Type (사면파괴 유형별 강우 한계선 설정)

  • Lee, Ji-Sung;Kim, Yun-Tae;Song, Young-Karb;Jang, Dae-Heung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2014
  • Most of slope failures have taken place between June and September in Korea, which cause a considerable damage to society. Rainfall intensity and duration are very significant triggering factors for landslide. In this paper, landslide-triggering rainfall threshold consisting of rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) was proposed. For this study, total 255 landslides were collected in landslide inventory during 1999 to 2012 from NDMI (National Disaster Management Institute), various reports, newspapers and field survey. And most of the required rainfall data were collected from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). The collected landslides were classified into three categories: debris flow, shallow landslide and unconfirmed. A rainfall threshold was proposed based on landslide type using statistical method such as quantile-regression method. Its validation was carried out based on 2013 landslide database. The proposed rainfall threshold was also compared with previous rainfall thresholds. The proposed landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds could be used in landslide early warning system in Korea.

Long-term Trend Analysis of Extreme Temperatures in East Asia Using Quantile Regression (분위수 회귀분석을 이용한 동아시아 지역 극한기온의 장기 추세 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Wook;Song, Kanghyun;Yoo, Young-Eun;Son, Seok-Woo;Jeong, Su-Jong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-169
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    • 2018
  • This study explores the long?term trends of extreme temperatures of 270 observation stations in East Asia (China, Japan, and Korea) for 1961?2013. The 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures (TN05%) and 95th percentile of daily maximum temperatures (TX95%), derived from the quantile regression, are particularly examined in term of their linear and nonlinear trends. The warming trends of TN05% are typically stronger than those of TX95% with more significant trends in winter than in summer for most stations. In both seasons, warming trends of TN05% tend to amplify with latitudes. The nonlinear trends, quantified by the $2^{nd}$?order polynomial fitting, exhibit different structures with seasons. While summer TN05% and TX95% were accelerated in time, winter TN05% underwent weakening of warming since the 2000s. These results suggest that extreme temperature trends in East Asia are not homogeneous in time and space.

Bayesian quantile regression analysis of private education expenses for high scool students in Korea (일반계 고등학생 사교육비 지출에 대한 베이지안 분위회귀모형 분석)

  • Oh, Hyun Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1457-1469
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    • 2017
  • Private education expenses is one of the key issues in Korea and there have been many discussions about it. Academically, most of previous researches for private education expenses have used multiple regression linear model based on ordinary least squares (OLS) method. However, if the data do not satisfy the basic assumptions of the OLS method such as the normality and homoscedasticity, there is a problem with the reliability of estimations of parameters. In this case, quantile regression model is preferred to OLS model since it does not depend on the assumptions of nonnormality and heteroscedasticity for the data. In the present study, the data from a survey on private education expenses, conducted by Statistics Korea in 2015 has been analyzed for investigation of the impacting factors for private education expenses. Since the data do not satisfy the OLS assumptions, quantile regression model has been employed in Bayesian approach by using gibbs sampling method. The analysis results show that the gender of the student, parent's age, and the time and cost of participating after school are not significant. Household income is positively significant in proportion to the same size for all levels (quantiles) of private education expenses. Spending on private education in Seoul is higher than other regions and the regional difference grows as private education expenditure increases. Total time for private education and student's achievement have positive effect on the lower quantiles than the higher quantiles. Education level of father is positively significant for midium-high quantiles only, but education level of mother is for all but low quantiles. Participating after school is positively significant for the lower quantiles but EBS textbook cost is positively significant for the higher quantiles.

Splice Length of GFRP Rebars Based on Flexural Tests of Unconfined RC Members (RC 부재 휨 실험에 의한 GFRP 보강근의 이음길이 제안)

  • Choi, Dong-Uk;Chun, Sung-Chul;Ha, Sang-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2009
  • Glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars are sometimes used when corrosion of conventional reinforcing steel bar is of concern. In this study, a total of 36 beams and one-way slabs reinforced using GFRP bars were tested in flexure. Four different GFRP bars of 13 mm diameter were used in the test program. In most test specimens, the GFRP bars were lap spliced at center. All beams and slabs were tested under 4-point loads so that the spliced region be subject to constant moment. Test variables were splice lengths, cover thicknesses, and bar spacings. No stirrups were used in the spliced region so that the tests result in conservative bond strengths. Average bond stresses that develop between GFRP bars and concrete were determined through nonlinear analysis of the cross-sections. An average bond stress prediction equation was derived utilizing two-variable linear regression. A splice length equation based on 5% fractile concept was then developed. As a result of this study, a rational equation with which design splice lengths of the GFRP bars can be determined, was proposed.

Real-time private consumption prediction using big data (빅데이터를 이용한 실시간 민간소비 예측)

  • Seung Jun Shin;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.13-38
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    • 2024
  • As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

Compression Lap Splice Length in Concrete of Compressive Strength from 40 to 70 MPa (40-70 MPa 콘크리트에서의 철근 압축이음 길이)

  • Chun, Sung-Chul;Lee, Sung-Ho;Oh, Bo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.401-408
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    • 2009
  • A compression lap splice becomes an important issue due to development of ultra-high strength concrete. Current design codes regarding compression lap splice do not utilize merits of the improved strength of ultra-high strength concrete. Especially, a compression lap splice can be calculated longer than a tension lap splice according to the codes because they do not consider effects of compressive strength of concrete and transverse reinforcement. This anomaly confuses engineers in practice. Design equation is proposed for compression lap splice in 40 to 70 MPa of compressive strength of concrete. The proposed equation is based on 51 specimens conducted by authors. Basic form of the equation includes main parameters which are derived from investigating test results. Through two-variable non-linear regression analysis of measured splice strengths, a strength equation of compression lap splices is then derived. A specified splice strength is defined using a 5% fractile coefficient and a lap length equation is constructed. By the proposed equation, the anomaly of lap lengths in tension and compression is got rid of. In addition, the equation has a reliability equivalent to those of the specified strengths of materials.

Dietary assessment according to intake of Korean soup and stew in Korean adults: Based on the 2011~2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 성인의 국물 음식류 섭취에 따른 식생활 평가 : 2011~2014 국민건강영양조사 자료를 이용하여)

  • Kwon, Yong-Suk;Han, Gyusang
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.335-346
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to conduct dietary assessment of Korean adults according to intake of Korean soup and stew. Methods: To accomplish this study, 20,926 adults aged 19 yr or higher who participated in the dietary intake survey (24 h recall method) were analyzed from the data of the 2011~2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The items included in the soup and stew were guk, tang, jjigae, jijimi, and jeongol. Results: Intakes of soup and stew of subjects were divided into quartiles; intake range by quartile was Q1: < 22.96 g, Q2: 22.96~98.75 g, Q3: 98.75~212.23 g, and Q4: $${\geq_-}212.24g$$. In the case of the Q4 group, male, married, employed, higher educated, and high income subjects showed increased intakes of soup and stew. In addition, sodium intake among nutrient intakes increased from 3,849.04 mg in Q1 group to 5,363.57 mg in Q4 group. Intakes of cereals/grains, potatoes/starches, legumes, seeds/nuts, vegetables, mushrooms, fruits, meat, fishes/shell fishes, milks/dairy products, oils/fats, and seasonings among all foods significantly increased from Q1 group to Q4 group. Lastly, in the multivariable regression analysis, male, higher age, married, eating breakfast, consumption of snacks, prepared meals from home/institution, average eating-out frequency per week, energy consumption, and sodium intake related parameters increased intake of Korean soup and stew. Conclusion: Excessive intake of sodium was related to high blood pressure and metabolic syndrome. Thus, there are needs to improve dietary guidelines and nutrition education for balanced intake of soup and stew.