• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.13-38
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• 2024

As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1453-1463
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• 2016

The most useful financial risk measure may be VaR (Value at Risk) which estimates the maximum loss amount statistically. The VaR tends to be estimated in many industries by using transformed univariate risk including variance-covariance matrix and a specific portfolio. Hong et al. (2016) are defined the Vector at Risk based on the multivariate quantile vector. When a specific portfolio is given, one point among Vector at Risk is founded as the best VaR which is called as an alternative VaR (AVaR). In this work, AVaRs have been investigated for multivariate normal distributions with many kinds of variance-covariance matrix and various portfolio weight vectors, and compared with VaRs. It has been found that the AVaR has smaller values than VaR. Some properties of AVaR are derived and discussed with these characteristics.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1253-1262
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• 2014

Regression tree is a tree-structured solution in which a simple regression model is fitted to the data in each node made by recursive partitioning of predictor space. There have been many efforts to apply tree algorithms to various regression problems like logistic regression and quantile regression. Recently, algorithms have been expanded to the panel data analysis such as RE-EM algorithm by Sela and Simonoff (2012), and extension of GUIDE by Loh and Zheng (2013). The algorithms are briefly introduced and prediction accuracy of three methods are compared in this paper. In general, RE-EM shows good prediction accuracy with least MSE's in the simulation study. A RE-EM tree fitted to business survey index (BSI) panel data shows that sales BSI is the main factor which affects business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment. The economic sentiment BSI of non-manufacturing industries is higher than that of manufacturing ones among the relatively high sales group.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.701-705
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• 2022

Reliable drought inflow scenarios are required to plan reservoirs in response to the present severe drought-like conditions. However, the previously developed method for generating drought inflows, the K-water cumulative difference method (KCM), is considered inadequate owing to its potential for negative inflow, reversal phenomena, and overestimation. Nevertheless, the occurrence of these aspects has not been theoretically analyzed. Hence, this study employed the quantile function and frequency factor for log-normal and Gumbel distributions to quantify the contributing factors of these limitations. Consequently, it was found that the negative inflows are generated when the difference in the location parameters, during the accumulation process, exceeds that of the scale parameters. In addition, as the standard deviation decrease during the accumulation process, the reversal phenomena, and inflated values prevailed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.439-450
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• 2016

For the design of infrastructures controlling the flood events at ungauged basins, this study tries to find the regional flood frequencies using peak flow data generated by the spatial extension of flood records. The Chungju Dam watershed is selected to validate the possibility of regional flood frequency analysis using the spatially extended flood data. Firstly, based on the index flood method, the flood event data from the spatial extension method is evaluated for 22 mid/smaller sub-basins at the Chungju Dam watershed. The homogeneity of the Chungju dam watershed was assessed in terms of the different size of watershed conditions such as accumulated and individual sub-basins. Based on the result of homogeneity analysis, this watershed is heterogeneous with respect to individual sub-basins because of the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution. To decide the regional probability distribution, goodness-of fit measure and weighted moving averages method from flood frequency analysis were adopted. Finally, GEV distribution was selected as a representative distribution and regional quantile were estimated. This research is one step further method to estimate regional flood frequency for ungauged basins.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.23-35
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• 2012

The optimum location of the prehistoric sites of Ulsan Metropolitan City are investigated by both quantile and natural breaks methods through GIS, and the settlement pattern is studied based on the possibility of presence of the prehistoric sites which are also analyzed with these methods. Such factors including elevation, slope, distance from the nearest water, aspect, geological features, soil drainage classes, subsoil and land use recommended are employed in the analysis. The optimum geographical environment is the place where it includes the water-base in the area that is the southern aspect of the gentle slope land of lowland. The geology is the Quaternary alluvium. The drainage class is fine and the deep soil saturn is the fine loamy soil and the recommendation of land use is the area that is the field. As a result of the forecast of distribution, the prehistoric sites showed the higher possibility of presence in the downstream region where the Taehwa river and Dongcheon river join because the region come close to the watercourse and the drinking water use is easy. And the aspect and elevation is the low area. The alluvium accumulated from the upper stream of the Taehwa river and Dongheon river was made roomily, the area where is suitable for the farming life. Therefore, this region is judged that the possibility of presence of the prehistoric sites is high.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.29-38
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• 2022

Recently, seismic design for anchors is required, which are used for connecting structural members and non-structural and structural members. In this study, pull-out tests on the new expansion anchors which have been developed for cracked concrete. The anchors of 12 mm and 20 mm diameters were tested which are commonly used. Experiments were conducted on non-cracked concrete and cracked concrete to evaluate the seismic performance of the post-installed anchor. The experimental method complies with the specified test protocol (KCI, 2018). Three experimental variables are included in this study: presence of cracks, concrete compressive strength, and effective embedment depth. The strength of the anchors was evaluated with the characteristic capacity K_5% determined from the test results incorporated with the safety of 5% fractile. The characteristic capacity K_5% of the non-cracked and cracked concrete specified in KDS 14 20 54 are 9.8 and 7.0, respectively. Test results show that all groups except the three groups have higher characteristic capacity K_5% than the KDS code and the nominal strengths of the tested anchors can be determined with the obtained characteristic capacity K_5%.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.1457-1469
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• 2017

Private education expenses is one of the key issues in Korea and there have been many discussions about it. Academically, most of previous researches for private education expenses have used multiple regression linear model based on ordinary least squares (OLS) method. However, if the data do not satisfy the basic assumptions of the OLS method such as the normality and homoscedasticity, there is a problem with the reliability of estimations of parameters. In this case, quantile regression model is preferred to OLS model since it does not depend on the assumptions of nonnormality and heteroscedasticity for the data. In the present study, the data from a survey on private education expenses, conducted by Statistics Korea in 2015 has been analyzed for investigation of the impacting factors for private education expenses. Since the data do not satisfy the OLS assumptions, quantile regression model has been employed in Bayesian approach by using gibbs sampling method. The analysis results show that the gender of the student, parent's age, and the time and cost of participating after school are not significant. Household income is positively significant in proportion to the same size for all levels (quantiles) of private education expenses. Spending on private education in Seoul is higher than other regions and the regional difference grows as private education expenditure increases. Total time for private education and student's achievement have positive effect on the lower quantiles than the higher quantiles. Education level of father is positively significant for midium-high quantiles only, but education level of mother is for all but low quantiles. Participating after school is positively significant for the lower quantiles but EBS textbook cost is positively significant for the higher quantiles.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.111-120
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• 2023

In Korea, wetland policies are currently being pursued through long-term plans such as nationwide wetland surveys and wetland conservation basic plans. However, most policies focus on understanding the status of wetlands, such as their area, distribution, and biodiversity, and there is a lack of awareness regarding the need to conserve and manage wetland ecosystems as a single organism. Therefore, this study aims to identify potential riverine wetland sites that can be ecologically connected by considering functional aspects such as floodplain, biodiversity, habitat provision, and tourism resources. This study attempted to select a candidate site that could potentially provide ecological connectivity with three wetlands in the Nakdonggang River water system : Upo Wetland, Hwapocheon Wetland, and Junam Reservoir. 63 wetlands and 7 candidate sites located in 15 subwatersheds of the Nakdonggang River were analyzed, and the most suitable candidate site for ecological connectivity was selected based on the calculated scores. A suitability analysis was conducted using 9 evaluation factors to evaluate candidate sites, and the scoring method, using quantile, was applied to these factors. As a result, Upo2(Hopo) was selected as the most suitable site for ecological connectivity, receiving the highest score 36. Therefore, it is believed that Upo2(Hopo) can serve as a floodplain, habitat, biodiversity enhancer, and tourism resource while being the most suitable for ecological connectivity.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.300-314
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• 2023

Purpose: This study sought to predict the reasons for skipping breakfast by adolescents aged 13-18 years using the 7^th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). Methods: The participants included 1,024 adolescents. The data were analyzed using a complex-sample t-test, the Rao Scott χ²-test, and the classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm for decision tree analysis with SPSS v. 27.0. The participants were divided into two groups, one regularly eating breakfast and the other skipping it. Results: A total of 579 and 445 study participants were found to be breakfast consumers and breakfast skippers respectively. Breakfast consumers were significantly younger than those who skipped breakfast. In addition, breakfast consumers had a significantly higher frequency of eating dinner, had been taught about nutrition, and had a lower frequency of eating out. The breakfast skippers did so to lose weight. Children who skipped breakfast consumed less energy, carbohydrates, proteins, fats, fiber, cholesterol, vitamin C, vitamin A, calcium, vitamin B1, vitamin B2, phosphorus, sodium, iron, potassium, and niacin than those who consumed breakfast. The best predictor of skipping breakfast was identifying adolescents who sought to control their weight by not eating meals. Other participants who had low and middle-low household incomes, ate dinner 3-4 times a week, were more than 14.5 years old, and ate out once a day showed a higher frequency of skipping breakfast. Conclusion: Based on these results, nutrition education targeted at losing weight correctly and emphasizing the importance of breakfast, especially for adolescents, is required. Moreover, nutrition educators should consider designing and implementing specific action plans to encourage adolescents to improve their breakfast-eating practices by also eating dinner regularly and reducing eating out.