• Title/Summary/Keyword: 분석문제

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Consumer's Negative Brand Rumor Acceptance and Rumor Diffusion (소비자의 부정적 브랜드 루머의 수용과 확산)

  • Lee, Won-jun;Lee, Han-Suk
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.65-96
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    • 2012
  • Brand has received much attention from considerable marketing research. When consumers consume product or services, they are exposed to a lot of brand related stimuli. These contain brand personality, brand experience, brand identity, brand communications and so on. A special kind of new crisis occasionally confronting companies' brand management today is the brand related rumor. An important influence on consumers' purchase decision making is the word-of-mouth spread by other consumers and most decisions are influenced by other's recommendations. In light of this influence, firms have reasonable reason to study and understand consumer-to-consumer communication such as brand rumor. The importance of brand rumor to marketers is increasing as the number of internet user and SNS(social network service) site grows. Due to the development of internet technology, people can spread rumors without the limitation of time, space and place. However relatively few studies have been published in marketing journals and little is known about brand rumors in the marketplace. The study of rumor has a long history in all major social science. But very few studies have dealt with the antecedents and consequences of any kind of brand rumor. Rumor has been generally described as a story or statement in general circulation without proper confirmation or certainty as to fact. And it also can be defined as an unconfirmed proposition, passed along from people to people. Rosnow(1991) claimed that rumors were transmitted because people needed to explain ambiguous and uncertain events and talking about them reduced associated anxiety. Especially negative rumors are believed to have the potential to devastate a company's reputation and relations with customers. From the perspective of marketer, negative rumors are considered harmful and extremely difficult to control in general. It is becoming a threat to a company's sustainability and sometimes leads to negative brand image and loss of customers. Thus there is a growing concern that these negative rumors can damage brands' reputations and lead them to financial disaster too. In this study we aimed to distinguish antecedents of brand rumor transmission and investigate the effects of brand rumor characteristics on rumor spread intention. We also found key components in personal acceptance of brand rumor. In contextualist perspective, we tried to unify the traditional psychological and sociological views. In this unified research approach we defined brand rumor's characteristics based on five major variables that had been found to influence the process of rumor spread intention. The five factors of usefulness, source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness, encompass multi level elements of brand rumor. We also selected product involvement as a control variable. To perform the empirical research, imaginary Korean 'Kimch' brand and related contamination rumor was created and proposed. Questionnaires were collected from 178 Korean samples. Data were collected from college students who have been experienced the focal product. College students were regarded as good subjects because they have a tendency to express their opinions in detail. PLS(partial least square) method was adopted to analyze the relations between variables in the equation model. The most widely adopted causal modeling method is LISREL. However it is poorly suited to deal with relatively small data samples and can yield not proper solutions in some cases. PLS has been developed to avoid some of these limitations and provide more reliable results. To test the reliability using SPSS 16 s/w, Cronbach alpha was examined and all the values were appropriate showing alpha values between .802 and .953. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted successfully. And structural equation modeling has been used to analyze the research model using smartPLS(ver. 2.0) s/w. Overall, R2 of adoption of rumor is .476 and R2 of intention of rumor transmission is .218. The overall model showed a satisfactory fit. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. According to the results, the variables of brand rumor characteristic such as source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness affect argument strength of rumor. And argument strength of rumor also affects rumor intention. On the other hand, the relationship between perceived usefulness and argument strength of rumor is not significant. The moderating effect of product involvement on the relations between argument strength of rumor and rumor W.O.M intention is not supported neither. Consequently this study suggests some managerial and academic implications. We consider some implications for corporate crisis management planning, PR and brand management. This results show marketers that rumor is a critical factor for managing strong brand assets. Also for researchers, brand rumor should become an important thesis of their interests to understand the relationship between consumer and brand. Recently many brand managers and marketers have focused on the short-term view. They just focused on strengthen the positive brand image. According to this study we suggested that effective brand management requires managing negative brand rumors with a long-term view of marketing decisions.

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A Study of Equipment Accuracy and Test Precision in Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (골밀도검사의 올바른 질 관리에 따른 임상적용과 해석 -이중 에너지 방사선 흡수법을 중심으로-)

  • Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Ho-Sung;Jung, Woon-Kwan
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Because there is a difference depending on the environment as for an inspection equipment the important part of bone density scan and the precision/accuracy of a tester, the management of quality must be made systematically. The equipment failure caused by overload effect due to the aged equipment and the increase of a patient was made frequently. Thus, the replacement of equipment and additional purchases of new bonedensity equipment caused a compatibility problem in tracking patients. This study wants to know whether the clinical changes of patient's bonedensity can be accurately and precisely reflected when used it compatiblly like the existing equipment after equipment replacement and expansion. Materials and methods : Two equipments of GE Lunar Prodigy Advance(P1 and P2) and the Phantom HOLOGIC Spine Road(HSP) were used to measure equipment precision. Each device scans 20 times so that precision data was acquired from the phantom(Group 1). The precision of a tester was measured by shooting twice the same patient, every 15 members from each of the target equipment in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 2). In addition, the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data were made by scanning 20 times in each of the equipment using HSP, based on the data obtained from the management of quality using phantom(ASP) every morning (Group 3). The same patient was shot only once in one equipment alternately to make the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 4). Results : It is steady equipment according to daily Q.C Data with $0.996\;g/cm^2$, change value(%CV) 0.08. The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are ALP in Group 1(P1 : $1.064{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.190\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.061{\pm}0.003\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.192). The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are P1 : $1.187{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.164\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.198{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.163 in Group 2. The average error${\pm}$2SD and %CV are P1 - (spine: $0.001{\pm}0.03\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.94, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.019\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.96), P2 - (spine: $0.002{\pm}0.018\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.55, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.013\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.48) in Group 3. The average error${\pm}2SD$, %CV, and r value was spine : $0.006{\pm}0.024\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.86, r=0.995, Femur: $0{\pm}0.014\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.54, r=0.998 in Group 4. Conclusion: Both LUNAR ASP CV% and HOLOGIC Spine Phantom are included in the normal range of error of ${\pm}2%$ defined in ISCD. BMD measurement keeps a relatively constant value, so showing excellent repeatability. The Phantom has homogeneous characteristics, but it has limitations to reflect the clinical part including variations in patient's body weight or body fat. As a result, it is believed that quality control using Phantom will be useful to check mis-calibration of the equipment used. A value measured a patient two times with one equipment, and that of double-crossed two equipment are all included within 2SD Value in the Bland - Altman Graph compared results of Group 3 with Group 4. The r value of 0.99 or higher in Linear regression analysis(Regression Analysis) indicated high precision and correlation. Therefore, it revealed that two compatible equipment did not affect in tracking the patients. Regular testing equipment and capabilities of a tester, then appropriate calibration will have to be achieved in order to calculate confidential BMD.

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A study of the plan dosimetic evaluation on the rectal cancer treatment (직장암 치료 시 치료계획에 따른 선량평가 연구)

  • Jeong, Hyun Hak;An, Beom Seok;Kim, Dae Il;Lee, Yang Hoon;Lee, Je hee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2016
  • Purpose : In order to minimize the dose of femoral head as an appropriate treatment plan for rectal cancer radiation therapy, we compare and evaluate the usefulness of 3-field 3D conformal radiation therapy(below 3fCRT), which is a universal treatment method, and 5-field 3D conformal radiation therapy(below 5fCRT), and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT). Materials and Methods : The 10 cases of rectal cancer that treated with 21EX were enrolled. Those cases were planned by Eclipse(Ver. 10.0.42, Varian, USA), PRO3(Progressive Resolution Optimizer 10.0.28) and AAA(Anisotropic Analytic Algorithm Ver. 10.0.28). 3fCRT and 5fCRT plan has $0^{\circ}$, $270^{\circ}$, $90^{\circ}$ and $0^{\circ}$, $95^{\circ}$, $45^{\circ}$, $315^{\circ}$, $265^{\circ}$ gantry angle, respectively. VMAT plan parameters consisted of 15MV coplanar $360^{\circ}$ 1 arac. Treatment prescription was employed delivering 54Gy to recum in 30 fractions. To minimize the dose difference that shows up randomly on optimizing, VMAT plans were optimized and calculated twice, and normalized to the target V100%=95%. The indexes of evaluation are D of Both femoral head and aceta fossa, total MU, H.I.(Homogeneity index) and C.I.(Conformity index) of the PTV. All VMAT plans were verified by gamma test with portal dosimetry using EPID. Results : D of Rt. femoral head was 53.08 Gy, 50.27 Gy, and 30.92 Gy, respectively, in the order of 3fCRT, 5fCRT, and VMAT treatment plan. Likewise, Lt. Femoral head showed average 53.68 Gy, 51.01 Gy and 29.23 Gy in the same order. D of Rt. aceta fossa was 54.86 Gy, 52.40 Gy, 30.37 Gy, respectively, in the order of 3fCRT, 5fCRT, and VMAT treatment plan. Likewise, Lt. Femoral head showed average 53.68 Gy, 51.01 Gy and 29.23 Gy in the same order. The maximum dose of both femoral head and aceta fossa was higher in the order of 3fCRT, 5fCRT, and VMAT treatment plan. C.I. showed the lowest VMAT treatment plan with an average of 1.64, 1.48, and 0.99 in the order of 3fCRT, 5fCRT, and VMAT treatment plan. There was no significant difference on H.I. of the PTV among three plans. Total MU showed that the VMAT treatment plan used 124.4MU and 299MU more than the 3fCRT and 5fCRT treatment plan, respectively. IMRT verification gamma test results for the VMAT plan passed over 90.0% at 2mm/2%. Conclusion : In rectal cancer treatment, the VMAT plan was shown to be advantageous in most of the evaluation indexes compared to the 3D plan, and the dose of the femoral head was greatly reduced. However, because of practical limitations there may be a case where it is difficult to select a VMAT treatment plan. 5fCRT has the advantage of reducing the dose of the femoral head as compared to the existing 3fCRT, without regard to additional problems. Therefore, not only would it extend survival time but the quality of life in general, if hospitals improved radiation therapy efficiency by selecting the treatment plan in accordance with the hospital's situation.

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A Study on the Dietary Behaviors, Physical Development and Nutrient Intakes in Preschool Children (학령 전 아동의 식습관, 신체 발달 및 영양 섭취상태에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Kyeong-Hee
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the health status of preschool children using the questionnaires about dietary behaviors and anthropometric indices. And also nutritional status was investigated using questionnaires for 24-hr recall method. The study was conducted in 145 children aged 3 to 6 years and questionnaires for dietary behaviors and dietary intakes were performed by mothers of children in Ulsan. Just nine percent of children were graded as good in terms of having healthy eating habits, this means that the nutrition education for the dietary behaviors should be more focused on preschool children. With regard to the frequency of food intake, children consumed green & yellow vegetables less frequently, meanwhile consumed high protein source food (meat, egg and bean) and milk and its product more frequently. Children almost never consumed fried foods as often as 1-2 times a weak. In assessment of the health status, children have the highest prevalence of colds and allergy, but lower prevalence of clinical symptoms due to the nutritional deficiency. The mean height was $103.6\;{\pm}\;6.4\;cm$ and significantly different among age (p < 0.05), but was not significantly different between sex. The mean weight was $17.8\;{\pm}\;3.0\;kg$ and significantly different in 5, 6years old among age. By the WLI criteria, 11.1% of children were underweight and 17.4% of children were overweight or obese. By the Rohrer index criteria, any children were not underweight and 86.8% of children were overweight or obese. By the Kaup index criteria, 2.8% of children were underweight and 29.2% of children were overweight or obese. And Obesity Index criteria, 2.1% of children were underweight and 20.8% of children were overweight or obese. The results of obesity rate by all criteria except Rohrer index indicated similar level, were significantly high in age 3 with all criteria, and decreased with age increased. The energy intake of children was lower than EER (Estimated Energy Requirements) of Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans (KDRIs) by as much as 85.7%. Acceptable Macronutrient Distribution Ranges (AMDR) was 62.6:21.5:15.7 as carbohydrate:protein:lipid, so children consumed protein more, but consumed lipid less compared with those of KDRIs. Vitamin A intake was 133% of recommended intakes (RI) and calcium intake which was identified as the nutrient most likely to be lacking in diets was 98.9% of RI. The intakes of all minerals and vitamins except folate were higher than KDRIs. 33.3% of children were distributed in insufficiency of energy intake, 42.7% of children were distributed in insufficiency of lipid intake. These results indicate that the need of developing of nutrition education program and further concern of a public health center, university and children care center about dietary life for preschool children.

Prediction of fertilizer demands up to the year of 2,000 from agronomic view points - Review and Discussion - (농경학적(農耕學的) 입장(立場)에서 본 서기(西紀) 2,000년(年)까지의 비료수요(肥料需要) 전망(展望) - 종합고찰(綜合考察) -)

  • Hong, Chong-Woon;Shin, Yong-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.211-220
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    • 1976
  • The objective of this paper is to summarize and disicuss the results of studies for the prediction of fertilizer demands up to the year of 2000, from the agromic biew points. 1. The approximated demands of fertilizers figured out from the view point of nutrient requirement and fertilizer efficiency of major crops are 1,162,000M/T (N;554,100 M/T, $P_2O_5$; 360,100 M/T and $K_2O$, 247,000 M/T) at 1980, 1,471,400 M/T (N: 694,800 M/T, $P_2O_5$;465,400M/T and $K_2O$ ;311,200 M/T) at 1990 and 1,764,00 M/T (N;812,500 M/T, $P_2O_5$; 592,300 M/T and $K_2O$;359,200 M/T) at 2000${\cdots}{\cdots}$ (Approximation I) 2. Upon the basis of approximation on the yield levels of major crops per unit area and on the expansion of arable land, the demands of fertilizers at the years of 1980, 1990 and 2000 are predicted as 1,149,300 M/T (N;603,700 M/T $P_2O_5$; 305,500 M/T and $K_2O$, 240,100 M/T) 1,551,100 M/T(N:814,700M/T, $P_2O_5$;412,300 M/T and $K_2O$;324,00 M/T) and 2,253,800 M/T (N;1,183,800M/T, $P_2O_5$; 586,400M/T and $K_2O$, 470,900 M/T), respectively${\cdots}{\cdots}$(Approximation II) 3. When the recent relationships between the increases in yeid of major crops and the amounts of fertilizers for those crops per unit area are brought into consideration for the estimation of future demands of fertilizers, the predicted demands at the years of 1980, 1990 and 2000 are 1,287.600 M/T (N;677,100 M/T, $P_2O_5$; 342,000 M/T, and $K_2O$;268,500 M/T), 2,085,600M/T (N;1,096,700 M/T, $P_2O_5$;533,900 M/T, and $K_2O$;435,000 M/T and 3,380,600 M/T (N;1,777,800M/T, $P_2O_5$;897,800M/T and $K_2O$;705,000M/T) respectively (Approximation III) 4. Approximation I will be closer estimate under such condition that only rice will maintain self suficiency and other food crops will be covered by domestic production by around 50 percent, which is not desirable situation. 5. When higher self suficiency leveles of major food crops are sought through the introduction of improved varieties and expansion of cropping area and arable land by increased land utilization and reclamation of hillside land and tidal land, the Approximations II and III will become close to reality, If improved fertilizers and improved method of fertilizer applications are widely applied at the farmers fields to increase the fertilizer efficiency the former will be closer figure, if not, the latter may be better estimates.

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Studies on the Appraisal of Stumpage Value in the Forest Land - With Respect to Kyung-Ju Area - (산원지(山元地) 임목평가(林木平価)에 관(関)한 연구(研究) - 경주지방(慶州地方)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Rha, Sang Soo;Park, Tai Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 1981
  • The purpose of the study is to find out the objective method of valuation on the forest stands through the analysis of logging costs that is positively related to timber production. The two forest (Amgog, Whangryoung), located nereby, but forest type, logging and skidding conditions being slightly different, were slected to carry out the study. The objective timber stumpage value were determined by investigating the appropriate timber production costs and profits of logging operations. The main result obtained in this study are as follows: 1. The rate of logging cost in consisting of timber market price is 13.15% in the area of Amgog logging place and 19.48% in Whangryoung. 2. The rate of the other production cost excluding logging cost is 15.36% in the area of Amgog logging place and 28.85% in Whangryoung. 3. The total rate of timber production cost in consisting of the market price is more than 28.51% in the area of Amgog logging place and 48.33% in Whangryoung, 4. Though the productivity of forest land is affected by the selection of tree species, tending, treatments and effective management of forest land, the more important problem is improvement of logging condition. 5. The rate of production cost in timber price is so high that we should endeavore to improve the productivity of labour and its quality, and minimize the difference of piece work per day in accordance to the various site condition. 6. Although the profit of forest industry is related to the period of recapturing investment, it is more closely related to the working condition, risk of investment and continuous change of social investment interest. 7. If the right variables which are related to the timber market, are objectively obtained, the stumpage value of mature forests can be objectively caculated by applying straight line discounting method or compound discounting method in caculating the stump to market price.

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The Effect of Corporate Association on the Perceived Risk of the Product (소비자의 제품 지각 위험에 대한 기업연상과 효과: 지식과 관여의 조절적 역활을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Hyun-Chul;Kang, Suk-Hou;Kim, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2008
  • Brown and Dacin (1997) have investigated the relationship between corporate associations and product evaluations. Their study focused on the effects of associations with a company's corporate ability (CA) and its corporate social responsibility (CSR) on consumers' product evaluations. Their study has found that both of CA and CSR influenced product evaluation but CA association has a stronger effect than CSR associations. Brown and Dacin (1997) have, however, claimed that there are few researches on how corporate association impacts product responses. Accordingly, some of researchers have found the variables to moderate or to mediate the relationship between the corporate association and the product responses. In particular, there has been existed a few of studies that tested the influence of the reputation on the product-relevant perceived risk, but the effects of two types of the corporate association on the product-relevant perceived risk were not identified so far. The primary goal of this article is to identify and empirically examine some variables to moderate the effects of CA association and CSR association on the perceived risk of the product. In this articles, we take the concept of the corporate associations that Brown and Dacin (1997) had proposed. CA association is those association related to the company's expertise in producing and delivering its outputs and CSR association reflected the organization's status and activities with respect to its perceived societal obligations. Also, this study defines the risk, which is the uncertainty or loss of the product and corporate that consumers have taken in a particular purchase decision or after having purchased. The risk is classified into product-relevant performance risk and financial risk. Performance risk is the possibility or the consequence of a product not functioning at some expected level and financial risk is the monetary loss one perceives to be incurring if a product does not function at some expected level. In relation to consumer's knowledge, expert consumers have much of the experiences or knowledge of the product in consumer position and novice consumers does not. The model tested in this article are shown in Figure 1. The model indicates that both of CA association and CSR association influence on performance risk and financial risk. In addition, the effects of CA and CSR are moderated by product category knowledge (product knowledge) and product category involvement (product involvement). In this study, the relationships between the corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk are hypothesized as the following form. For example, Hypothesis 1a($H_{1a}$) is represented that CA association has a positive influence on the performance risk of consumer. Also, the hypotheses that identified some variables to moderate the effects of two types of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are laid down. One of the hypotheses of the interaction effect is Hypothesis 3a($H_{3a}$), it is described that consumer's knowledges of the product moderates the negative relationship between CA association and product-relevant performance risk. A field experiment was conducted in order to examine our model. The company tested was not real but imagined to meet the internal validity. Water purifiers were used for our study. Four scenarios have been developed and described as the imaginary company: Type A with both of superior CA and CSR, Type B with superior CSR and inferior CA, Type C with superior CA and inferior CSR, and Type D with both inferior of CA and CSR. The respondents of this study were classified into four groups. One type of four scenarios (Type A, B, C, or D) in its questionnaire was given to the respondent who filled out questions. Data were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire to the respondents, chosen in convenience. A total of 300 respondents filled out the questionnaire but 207 were used for further analysis. Table 1 indicates that the scales in this study are reliable because the range of coefficients of Cronbach's $\alpha$ are from 0.85 to 0.92. The composite reliability is in the range of 0,85 to 0,92 and average variance extracted is in 0.72-0.98 range that is higher than the base level of 0.6. As shown in Table 2, the values for CFI, NNFI, root-mean-square error approximation (RMSEA), and standardized root-mean-square residual (SRMR) are acceptably close to the standards suggested by Hu and Bentler (1999):.95 for CFI and NNFI,.06 for RMSEA, and.08 for SRMR. We also tested discriminant validity provided by Fornell and Larcker (1981). As shown in Table 2, we found strong evidence for discriminant validity between each possible pair of latent constructs in all samples. Given that these batteries of overall goodness-of-fit indices were accurate and that the model was developed on theoretical bases, and given the high level of consistency across samples, this enables us to proceed the previously defined scales. We used the moderated hierarchical regression analysis to test the influence of the corporate association(CA and CSR associations) on product-relevant perceived risk(performance and financial risks) and to identify the variables moderating the relationship between the corporate association and product-relevant performance risk. In this study, dependent variables are performance and financial risk. CA and CSR associations are described the independent variables. The moderating variables are product category knowledge and product category involvement. The results are, as expected, found that CA association has statistically a significant influence on the perceived risk of the product, but CSR association does not. Product category knowledge and involvement moderate the relationship between the CA association and the perceived risk of the product. However, the effect of CSR association on the perceived risk of the product is not moderated by the consumers' knowledge and involvement. For this result, it is necessary for a corporate to inform its customers CA association more than CSR association so that they could be felt to be the reduction of the perceived risk. The important theoretical contribution of this research is the meanings that two types of corporate association that Brown and Dacin(1997), and Brown(1998) have proposed replicated the difference of the effects on product evaluation. According to Hunter(2001), it was an important affair to accomplish the validity of a particular study and we had to take about ten studies to deduce a strict study. Next, there is the contribution of the this study to find that the effects of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are varied by the moderator variables. In particular, the moderating effect of knowledge on the relationship between corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk has not been tested in Korea. In the managerial implications of this research, we suggest the necessity to stress the ability that corporate manufactures the product well(CA association) than the accomplishment of corporate's social obligation(CSR association). This study suffers from various limitations that imply future research directions. The moderating effects of product category knowledge and involvement on the relationship between corporate association and perceived risk need to be replicated. Next, future research could explore whether the mediated effects of the perceived risk has the relationship between corporate association and consumer's product purchase. In addition, to ensure the external validity of the study will be needed to use realistic company, not artificial.

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Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

History of Plant Protection Science since 1900 in Korea (한국(韓國)에 있어서의 식물보호(植物保護) 연구사(硏究史) -1900년대(年代)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Park, Jong-Seong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.69-95
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    • 1979
  • The study was conducted to search developmental process of plant protection science from review of forty-three hundreds literatures presented since 1900 in Korea and to forecast future statues of the science to be done. About 80 percent of literatures related to plant protection science such as plant pathology, applied entomology, weed science and agricultural pharmacology were collected from publications of agricultural and forestry reseach organizations attached to Office of Rural Development and Office of Forestry. The rest of literatures were mainly collected from Korean Journal of Plant Protection Society and small number of literatures were also collected from publications of the other journals of crop science and thesis collection of agricultural colleges. In Korea, research organizations of plant protection science are divided into two main groups such as exclusive agricultural research organizations and agricultural colleges. It is pointed out that the former contributions to plant protection science are very great compared to those of the latter since 1900. From periodical consideration of developmental process of the science since 1900, the history or the science are divided into three eras such as introduction and sprout of modern plant protection science during the first forty years, distress of the science during the following twenty years including the Second World War and the Korean War and rapid growth of the science after 1961. In spite of long time distress of the science during the Second World War and the Korean War, the researches on plant protection science in post-war have been done twice as many as pre-war. From consideration of the subject plants in researches of plant protection, it is shown that a great many researches on protection of rice plant have been done and occupy 37 percent of plant protection researches since 1900. And also researches on protection of fruit-trees and cash-crops are not so many as those of rice plant but have been done in noticeable numbers. In fact, researches on protection of fruit-trees and cashcrops were the most important subjects of plant protection researches in pre-war while those of rice plant were the most important subjects after 1930, particulary in post-war. From consideration of contents of plant protection researches, it is said that more fundamental researches than applied ones such as practical control methods of diseases, insect pests and weeds were done in pre-war while more applied researches than fundamental ones were done in post-war, Among applied researches, those of chemical control were the most important subjects. Researches on disease and insect-pest resistance have been done in both pre-war and post-war while researches on forecasting of disease and insect-pest and race of plant pathogens have been done in post-war. And also researches on weed control mainly have been done after 1960. Researches on agricultural chemicals for control of diseases, insect pests and weeds still belong to a new field which must be expected in future, and there is nothing to notice with the exception of practical application of agricultural chemicals introduced from foreign countries. Some of important researches on diseases and insect pests were discussed in relation to developmental process of plant protection science in Korea since 1900. In future, researches on plant protection will be develop to the direction supporting importance of integrated control for plant protection. Therefore, it is pointed out that security of highly educated and trained scientists with enlargement of reseach fields of plant protection science are necessary and role of agricultural colleges for future development of the science must be emphasized.

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