• Title/Summary/Keyword: 부실기업

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Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting Online Peer-to-Peer(P2P) Loan Default (인공지능기법을 이용한 온라인 P2P 대출거래의 채무불이행 예측에 관한 실증연구)

  • Bae, Jae Kwon;Lee, Seung Yeon;Seo, Hee Jin
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.207-224
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    • 2018
  • In this article, an empirical study was conducted by using public dataset from Lending Club Corporation, the largest online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the world. We explore significant predictor variables related to P2P lending default that housing situation, length of employment, average current balance, debt-to-income ratio, loan amount, loan purpose, interest rate, public records, number of finance trades, total credit/credit limit, number of delinquent accounts, number of mortgage accounts, and number of bank card accounts are significant factors to loan funded successful on Lending Club platform. We developed online P2P lending default prediction models using discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, and decision trees (i.e., CART and C5.0) in order to predict P2P loan default. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of P2P lending default prediction models, borrower loan data and credit data used in this study. Empirical results indicated that neural networks outperforms other classifiers such as discriminant analysis, logistic regression, CART, and C5.0. Neural networks always outperforms other classifiers in P2P loan default prediction.

The Optimization of Ensembles for Bankruptcy Prediction (기업부도 예측 앙상블 모형의 최적화)

  • Myoung Jong Kim;Woo Seob Yun
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2022
  • This paper proposes the GMOPTBoost algorithm to improve the performance of the AdaBoost algorithm for bankruptcy prediction in which class imbalance problem is inherent. AdaBoost algorithm has the advantage of providing a robust learning opportunity for misclassified samples. However, there is a limitation in addressing class imbalance problem because the concept of arithmetic mean accuracy is embedded in AdaBoost algorithm. GMOPTBoost can optimize the geometric mean accuracy and effectively solve the category imbalance problem by applying Gaussian gradient descent. The samples are constructed according to the following two phases. First, five class imbalance datasets are constructed to verify the effect of the class imbalance problem on the performance of the prediction model and the performance improvement effect of GMOPTBoost. Second, class balanced data are constituted through data sampling techniques to verify the performance improvement effect of GMOPTBoost. The main results of 30 times of cross-validation analyzes are as follows. First, the class imbalance problem degrades the performance of ensembles. Second, GMOPTBoost contributes to performance improvements of AdaBoost ensembles trained on imbalanced datasets. Third, Data sampling techniques have a positive impact on performance improvement. Finally, GMOPTBoost contributes to significant performance improvement of AdaBoost ensembles trained on balanced datasets.

Research on the Application Methods of Big Data within SME Financing: Big data from Trading-area (소상공인의 자금공급 확대를 위한 빅데이터 활용 방안연구)

  • Lee, Ju Hee;Dong, Hak Lim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.125-140
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    • 2018
  • According to statistics, it is shown that domestic SMEs rely on bank loans for the majority of fund procurement. From financial information shortage (Thin file) that does not provide information necessary for credit evaluation from banks such as financial statements. In order to overcome these problems, recently, in alternative finance such as P2P, using differentiated information such as demographics, trading information and the like utilizing Fintech instead of existing financial information, small funds A new credit evaluation method has been expanding to provide SMEs with small amounts of money. In this paradigm of environmental change, in this research, credit evaluation which can expand fund supply to SMEs by utilizing big data based on trade area information such as sales fluctuation, location conditions etc. In this research, we try to find such a solution. By analyzing empirically the big data generated in the trade area, we verify the effectiveness as a credit evaluation factor and try to derive the main parameters necessary for the business performance evaluation of the founder of SMEs. In this research, for 17,116 material businesses in Seoul City that operate the service industry from 2009 to February 2018, we collect trade area information generated for each business location from Big Data specialized company NICE Zini Data Co., Ltd.. We collected and analyzed the data on the locations and commercial areas of the facilities that were difficult to obtain from SMEs and analyzed the data that affected the Corporate financial Distress. It is possible to refer to the variable of the existing unused big data and to confirm the possibility of utilizing it for efficient financial support for SMEs, This is to ensure that commercial lenders, even in general commercial banks, are made to be more prominent in one sector of the financing of SMEs. In this research, it is not the traditional financial information about raising fund of SMEs who have basically the problem of information asymmetry, but a trade area analysis variable is derived, and this variable is evaluated by credit evaluation There is differentiation of research in that it verified through analysis of big data from Trading-area whether or not there is an effect on.

Professional Speciality of Communication Administration and, Occupational Group and Series Classes of Position in National Public Official Law -for Efficiency of Telecommunication Management- (통신행정의 전문성과 공무원법상 직군렬 - 전기통신의 관리들 중심으로-)

  • 조정현
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.26-27
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    • 1978
  • It can be expected that intelligence and knowledge will be the core of the post-industrial society in a near future. Accordingly, the age of intelligence shall be accelerated extensively to find ourselves in an age of 'Communication' service enterprise. The communication actions will increase its efficiency and multiply its utility, indebted to its scientic principles and legal idea. The two basic elements of communication action, that is, communication station and communication men are considered to perform their function when they are properly supported and managed by the government administration. Since the communication action itself is composed of various factors, the elements such as communication stations and officials must be cultivated and managed by specialist or experts with continuous and extensive study practices concerned. With the above mind, this study reviewed our public service officials law with a view to improve it by providing some suggestions for communication experts and researchers to find suitable positions in the framework of government administration. In this study, I would like to suggest 'Occupational Group of Communication' that is consisted of a series of comm, management positions and research positions in parallel to the existing series of comm, technical position. The communication specialist or expert is required to be qualified with necessary scientific knowledge and techniques of communication, as well as prerequisites as government service officials. Communication experts must succeed in the first hand to obtain government licence concerned in with the government law and regulation, and international custom before they can be appointed to the official positions. This system of licence-prior-to-appointment is principally applied in the communication management position. And communication research positions are for those who shall engage themselves to the work of study and research in the field of both management and technical nature. It is hopefully expected that efficient and extensive management of communication activities, as well as scientific and continuous study over than communication enterprise will be upgraded at national dimensions.

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Relationship between Pursuit Benefit and Behavior by Spectators Participating Security Exhibition (보안엑스포 참관객의 추구편익과 참관 후 행동의 관계)

  • Kim, In-Jae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.40
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    • pp.35-56
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was aimed to identify the relationship between pursuit benefit and behavior by spectators participating security exhibition. The result of study is significant because it may provide more effective and aggressive marketing strategies to the future companies participating security exhibition, and suggest developmental direction by actively responding spectators' needs. The subject for this study was spectators who participating World Security Expo 2014 held three days from March 12 to 14 in 2014. 300 samples were selected by convenience sampling for subject of this study. 283 out of 300 surveys, excluded 17 unfaithful and defected surveys, were used for data analysis. Research tool was questionnaire which was based on and recomposed by previous researches home and abroad. The collected data were treated for analysis of frequency, reliability, factor analysis, correlation, and regression by using SPSS statistic package version of 18.0. Through the above research method and procedure, the results were as followings. First, the relationship between pursuit benefit and behavior after participating exhibition appeared positively. It was found that there was high relationship between pursuit benefit and behavior. Second, analyzing relationship of factors between pursuit benefit and behaviors resulted to effect information exploration, good use of spare time, and product purchase on word of mouth. Third, analyzing relationship of factors between pursuit benefit and behaviors resulted to effect good use of spare time, information exploration, and product purchase on re-participation.

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Inefficiencies and Productivity Change of Domestic Banks including Non-performing Loan with Normal Output after Financial Crisis (금융위기 이후 부실채권을 고려한 국내 은행의 비효율성과 생산성 변화)

  • Chang, Young-Jae;Yang, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2020
  • This study constructed production frontiers of inputs and outputs in a sequential manner, measured inefficiencies by applying a non-radial sequential weighted Russell directional distance function to these frontiers, and analyzed Luenberg productivity indices and the contribution of each of input and output factor based on these distances. The results are as follows. First, the productivity of banks increased due to technical changes after the global financial crisis. Second, productivity growth decreased between 2009 and 2014 due to technical changes after the recession, as previous studies have shown that technology progressed before the global financial crisis but then largely decreased or remained the same thereafter. After 2014, the productivity of banks improved. This result may be due to both technology improvement after 10 years of stagnation and reduction of inputs and non-performing loans. Third, the 3.6% annual of productivity growth for 10 years was comprised of 1.77% household loans, 0.67% corporate loans, 0.98% manpower, 1.18% non-performing loans, -0.5% total deposits, and -1.25% securities. Finally, this study has limitations since it could not control risks such as capital structure and interest volatility.

Assessing Distress Prediction Model toward Jeju District Hotels (제주지역 호텔기업 부실예측모형 평가)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This current study will investigate the average financial ratio of top and failed five-star hotels in the Jeju area. A total of 14 financial ratio variables are utilized. This study aims to; first, assess financial ratio of the first-class hotels in Jeju to establishing variables, second, develop distress prediction model for the first-class hotels in Jeju district by using logit analysis and third, evaluate distress prediction capacity for the first-class hotels in Jeju district by using logit analysis. Research design, data, and methodology - The sample was collected from year 2015 and 14 financial ratios of 12 first-class hotels in Jeju district. The results from the samples were analyzed by t-test, and the independent variables were chosen. This was an empirical study where the distress prediction model was evaluated by logit analysis. This current research has focused on critically analyzing and differentiating between the top and failed hotels in the Jeju area by utilizing the 14 financial ratio variables. Results - The verification result of the accuracy estimated by logit analysis has shown to indicate that the distress prediction model's distress prediction capacity was 83.3%. In order to extract the factors that differentiated the top hotels in the Jeju area from the failed hotels among the 14 chosen, the analysis of t-black was utilized by independent variables. Logit analysis was also used in this study. As a result, it was observed that 5 variables were statistically significant and are included in the logit analysis for discernment of top and failed hotels in the Jeju area. Conclusions - The distress prediction press' prediction capability was compared in this research analysis. The distress prediction press prediction capability was shown to range from 75-85% by logit analysis from a previous study. In this current research, the study's prediction capacity was shown to be 83.33%. It was considered a high number and was found to belong to the range of the previous study's prediction capacity range. From a practical perspective, the capacity of the assessment of the distress prediction model in the top and failed hotels in the Jeju area was considered to be a prominent factor in applications of future hotel appraisal.

The Establishment and Merger of the Head Office Banks during the Colonial Period: Three Banks in Busan (식민지기 본점은행의 설립과 해체: 부산 3행의 경우)

  • Kim, Ho-Beom;Kim, Dae-Rae;Kim, Su-Jin
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.681-701
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    • 2009
  • There were three banks that had the head office in Busan since 1912, Gyong-Nam Bank, Dong-Rae Bank and Busan Commercial Bank. This article tries to catch hold of the characteristics of the establishment and management, and the merging process of three banks. The main stockholders and managers made use of the money of the banks for the enterprises that they operated. Gyong-Nam Bank was combined with Dae-Gu Bank in 1928 to be Dae-Gu Commercial & Industrial Bank. The revised bank ordinance of 1928 regulated that the head office banks had to meet the requirement of the paid-in capital, 2 million yen. Not meeting such an excessive requirement, Dong-Rae Bank was amalgamated to Ho-Nam Bank of Gwang-Ju in 1933. Busan Commercial Bank was absorbed in Cho-Sun Commercial Bank in 1935 because it couldn't get back huge loan from a company which belonged to its three main stockholders. Japanese were already the main stockholders of Cho-Sun Commercial Bank from the beginning of 1920s. The banking agencies were not able to deal with the economic fluctuations effectively, and didn't have any economic organization in support of their profit. Cho-Sun Government-General forced the head office banks to be merged to control the colonial economy.

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Policy Study on Korean Retail Micro Business (국제 비교를 통한 소매업 소상공인 현황과 정책적 시사점)

  • Suh, Yong Gu;Kim, Suk Kyung
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2012
  • The unabated influx of micro businesses has turned the Korean retailing market to a rat race, which causes severe financial distress for micro business owners due to heavy competition. The woes of these micro business owner's are exacerbated by the presence of large scale distributors such as Super Supermarket(SSM) and large discount stores. In summary, the Korean retail market is overburdened an uneconomically viable. Retailing has low barriers to entry which attracts unskilled labor or those with little capital. These start-ups have low opportunity costs since they would make low wages elsewhere in the economy. Thus, these owners are content with relatively low returns on their investment. These 'subsistence ventures' are maintained for economical viability rather than economic growth. These 'subsistence ventures' intensifies competition among small-scale businesses. The presence of large retail corporations also aggravates the situation. The recent stagnation of the economy has worsened the retail market in Korea. The overwhelming competition solidifies the coarse structural system and the prolonged economic sluggishness has increased the risk of insolvency for micro business owners. As the economy continues to stagnate, the imminent risk in retailing market will rise up to surface threatening economic stability. More systematic inflows and outflows of retailers are required in order to redress this structural problem. It has been empirically shown that the self-employment rate is high in Korea compared to other OECD countries. To draw the comparison of self-employment rate by industry, Korea shows high rates among transportation, whole sale, retail, education, lodging, and restaurants. In the case of the transportation and education service sectors, this high rate can be explained by the idiosyncratic nature of Korean culture. In the transportation sector, political policies favor private cap service and private freight carriers. In the education service sector, Koreans put particular emphasis on education that leads to many private institutions that outnumber other OECD countries. For these singular reasons, Korea maintains high micro business, self-employed rates particularly in retailing. A comparable nation is Japan, with its similar social, economic, cultural environment among OECD countries. Unlike Korea, Japan has much lower rates of micro business which continues to decrease. Also Korean retailers are much more destitute than Japanese. The fundamental problem of Korean retailing is the involuntary exit of these 'subsistence ventures,' micro businesses with low margins, in which a small drop in demand can lead to financial difficulties for the owner. This problem will be exacerbated when Korean babyboomers retire and join the micro business ventures. The first priority in order to cope with the severity of oversupply in retailing is to provide better opportunities for the potential self-employers. There should be viable alternatives to subsistent ventures. Strengthening the retirement program, scrutiny of exit process, reconfiguration of policy funds are the recommendations.

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The Competition Policy and Major Industrial Policy-Making in the 1980's (1980년대 주요산업정책(主要産業政策) 결정(決定)과 경쟁정책(競爭政策): 역할(役割)과 한계(限界))

  • Choi, Jong-won
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.97-127
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    • 1991
  • This paper investigates the roles and the limitations of the Korean antitrust agencies-the Office of Fair Trade (OFT) and the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) during the making of the major industrial policies of the 1980's. The Korean antitrust agencies played only a minimal role in three major industrial policy-making issues in the 1980's- the enactment of the Industrial Development Act (IDA), the Industrial Rationalization Measures according to the IDA, and the Industrial Readjustment Measures on Consolidation of Large Insolvent Enterprises based on the revised Tax Exemption and Reduction Control Act. As causes for this performance bias in the Korean antitrust system, this paper considers five factors according to the current literature on implementation failure: ambiguous and insufficient statutory provisions of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act (MRFTA); lack of resources; biased attitudes and motivations of the staff of the OFT and the FTC; bureaucratic incapability; and widespread misunderstanding about the roles and functions of the antitrust system in Korea. Among these five factors, bureaucratic incompetence and lack of understanding in various policy implementation environments about the roles and functions of the antitrust system have been regarded as the most important ones. Most staff members did not have enough educational training during their school years to engage in antitrust and fair trade policy-making. Furthermore, the high rate of staff turnover due to a mandatory personnel transfer system has prohibited the accumulation of knowledge and skills required for pursuing complicated structural antitrust enforcement. The limited capability of the OFT has put the agency in a disadvantaged position in negotiating with other economic ministries. The OFT has not provided plausible counter-arguments based on sound economic theories against other economic ministries' intensive market interventions in the name of rationalization and readjustment of industries. If the staff members of antitrust agencies have lacked substantive understanding of the antitrust and fair trade policy, the rest of government agencies must have had serious problems in understanding the correst roles and functions of the antitrust system. The policy environment of the Korean antitrust system, including other economic ministries, the Deputy Prime Minister, and President Chun, have tended to conceptualize the OFT more as an agency aiming only at fair trade policy and less as an agency that should enforce structural monopoly regulation as well. Based on this assessment of the performance of the Korean antitrust system, this paper evaluate current reform proposals for the MRFT A. The inclusion of the regulation of conglomerate mergers and of business divestiture orders may be a desirable revision, giving the MRFTA more complete provisions. However, given deficient staff experties and the unfavorable policy environments, it would be too optimistic and naive to expect that the inclusion of these provisions alone could improve the performance of the Korean antitrust system. In its conclusion, this paper suggests several policy recommendations for the Korean antitrust system, which would secure the stable development and accumulation of antitrust expertise for its staff members and enough understanding and conformity from its environments about its antitrust goals and functions.

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