• Title/Summary/Keyword: 보정기간

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Assessment of water supply stability for Boryeong dam using future RCP climate change scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 보령댐의 미래 용수공급 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Wonjin;Kim, Jinuk;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.43-43
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    • 2020
  • 보령댐은 충남 서부지역 8개 시·군에 생활용수와 공업용수를 공급하고 있는 중요한 수원으로 최근 우리나라에서 발생한 연속적인 가뭄으로 2015년에는 저수율이 7.5 %까지 감소하여 제한급수가 시행되었다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄으로 인한 물 공급 부족에 취약함을 보인 보령댐 유역(297.4 ㎢)을 대상으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모델과 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 활용하여 극한 기후변화 사상이 반영된 보령댐의 내한능력을 평가하였다. SWAT 모형을 활용하여 보령댐의 물수지를 모의하기 위하여 보령댐의 실측 유출량, 저수량, 방류량으로 보령댐 유입량과 저수량을 보정(2002~2004) 및 검정(2005~2007)하였으며, 실측 저수량을 기반으로 미래 댐 운영을 모의하였다. 검·보정 결과, 댐 유입량과 저수량의 PBIAS(%)는 -0.04, -0.09, NSE(Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency)는 0.52, 0.96, RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)는 1.80 mm/day, 0.67 × 106㎥로 분석되어 신뢰성 있는 모의 결과를 보였다. 보정된 SWAT 모형으로 가뭄 사상이 반영된 기후변화를 모의하기 위하여 APCC의 26개 CMIP5 GCM 시나리오를 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)와 연속 이론(Runs theory)으로 분석하여 6개의 극한 가뭄 시나리오 (RCP 4.5, 8.5 CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A-MR)를 선정하였으며, 선정된 시나리오를 모형에 적용하여 가뭄 사상을 반영한 보령댐의 미래 내한능력을 평가하였다. 내한능력평가 및 분석 기간은 Historical(1980~1999; 1990s), Present(2000~2019; 2010s), 그리고 미래 기간 (2020~2039; 2030s, 2040~2059; 2050s, 2060~2079; 2070s, 2080~2099; 2090s)으로 나누었으며, 취약성(Reliability), 회복성(Resilience), 위험성(Vulnerability), 세 가지 지표로 내한능력 평가를 수행하였다. 평가 결과, 미래 취약성은 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.803까지 감소하였으며, 회복성과 위험성은 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.003, 3,567.6 × 106㎥까지 감소하였다.

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Flood simulation in the downstream area of Mekong river using satellite rainfall (위성강우를 이용한 메콩강 하류 홍수모의)

  • Choi, Yun Seok;Kim, Joo Hun;Kim, Kyung Tak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.391-391
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구의 목적은 2006년 6월 ~ 10월에 발생한 메콩강 하류 지역의 홍수를 모의하는 것이다. 강우자료는 위성강우 자료인 미국 NOAA의 CMORPH를 적용하였으며, 홍수유출 해석은 GRM 모델을 적용하였다. Tonlesap 호수를 포함하는 메콩강 하류 지역의 침수분석은 G2D 모델을 적용하였다. 위성강우 자료는 NOAA의 3시간 간격의 CMORPH 위성강우자료를 일일강우량 자료로 변환하고, 일본의 Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN)과 Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (MRI/JMA)의 APHRODITE 프로젝트에 의해 구축된 APHRODITE 강우량 자료를 이용하여 보정한 후 홍수모의에 적용하였다. DEM 자료는 HydroSHED 15s자료를 이용하였고, 토양도는 UN FAO의 HWSD, 그리고 토양도는 Global map landcover ver3.0을 이용하였다. GRM 모델과 G2D 모델은 Github(https://github.com/floodmodel)에 공개되어 있으며, 이를 이용하였다. 유출 모델은 메콩강 전체 유역을 대상으로 2682.815m의 공간해상도로 구축하였다. 보정한 강우를 이용하여 유출모의 한 결과 첨두유량은 23,796.8 ㎥/sec로 계산되었다. Kratie 지점의 유출량과 Tonlesap 호수로 집수되는 유량을 상류단 경계조건으로 이용하여 약 150일 동안의 침수모의를 하였다. 450 m 공간해상도로 침수모의 도매인을 구축하였으며, 조도계수는 0.045를 사용하였고, 하류단은 자유수면 유출조건을 적용하였다. 침수분석 결과 메콩강 본류를 흐르는 유량이 Tonlesap 호수로 유입되어 호수의 수위가 상승하였다. Tonlesap 호수의 최대침수심은 약 11 m를 나타내었으며, 호수로 유입된 유량은 모의기간 중에 호수에 저류되어 있었다. 메콩강 본류의 Kratie 지점으로 유입되는 유량이 첨두값을 지난 후에도 모의 기간이 길어질수록 메콩강 하류 델타지역과 그 주변의 평지로 침수범위가 확대 되었다. 모의 종료시에는 메콩강 하류가 광범위하게 침수되면서 최대 침수면적을 나타내었다. 본 연구에서 메콩강을 범람한 홍수는 메콩강 하류의 서쪽 해안으로 먼저 유출이 되었다. 이는 침수모의에 적용된 DEM 자료가 북동쪽에서 서남쪽 방향으로 빗살무늬 형태의 고도분포를 가지기 때문인 것으로 판단되며, 대상 지역의 DEM 정확성 평가와 함께 추가적인 연구가 필요하다.

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Improving usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's Digital Forecasts in Agriculture: III. Correction for Advection Effect on Determination of Daily Maximum Temperature Over Sloped Surfaces (기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: III. 사면 일 최고기온 결정에 미치는 이류효과 보정)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.297-303
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    • 2014
  • The effect of solar irradiance has been used to estimate daily maximum temperature, which make it possible to reduce the error inherent to lapse-rate based elevation difference correction in mountainous terrain. Still, recent observations indicated that the effect of solar radiation would need correction for estimation of daily maximum temperature. It was attempted to examine what would cause the variability of solar irradiance effect in determination of daily maximum temperature under natural field conditions and to suggest improved methods for estimation of the temperature distribution over mountainous regions. Temperature at 1500 and the wind speed for 1100 to 1500 were obtained at 10 validation sites with various topographical features including slope and aspect within a mountainous $50km^2$ catchment for 2012-2013. Lapse-rate corrected temperature estimates on clear days were compared with these observations, which would represent the differential irradiance effect among sloped surfaces. Results indicated a negative correlation between the mean wind speed and the estimation error. A simple scheme was derived from relationship between wind speed and estimation error for daily temperature to correct the effect of solar radiation. This scheme was incorporated into an existing model to estimate daily maximum temperature based on the effect of solar radiation. At 10 validation sites on clear days, estimates of 1500 LST temperature with and without the correction scheme were compared. It was found that a substantial improvement was achieved when the correction scheme was applied in terms of bias correction as well as error size reduction at all sites.

A Correction of East Asian Summer Precipitation Simulated by PNU/CME CGCM Using Multiple Linear Regression (다중 선형 회귀를 이용한 PNU/CME CGCM의 동아시아 여름철 강수예측 보정 연구)

  • Hwang, Yoon-Jeong;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.214-226
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    • 2007
  • Because precipitation is influenced by various atmospheric variables, it is highly nonlinear. Although precipitation predicted by a dynamic model can be corrected by using a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network, this approach has limits such as choices of the initial weight, local minima and the number of neurons, etc. In the present paper, we correct simulated precipitation by using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, which is simple and widely used. First of all, Ensemble hindcast is conducted by the PNU/CME Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) (Park and Ahn, 2004) for the period from April to August in 1979-2005. MLR is applied to precipitation simulated by PNU/CME CGCM for the months of June (lead 2), July (lead 3), August (lead 4) and seasonal mean JJA (from June to August) of the Northeast Asian region including the Korean Peninsula $(110^{\circ}-145^{\circ}E,\;25-55^{\circ}N)$. We build the MLR model using a linear relationship between observed precipitation and the hindcasted results from the PNU/CME CGCM. The predictor variables selected from CGCM are precipitation, 500 hPa vertical velocity, 200 hPa divergence, surface air temperature and others. After performing a leave-oneout cross validation, the results are compared with the PNU/CME CGCM's. The results including Heidke skill scores demonstrate that the MLR corrected results have better forecasts than the direct CGCM result for rainfall.

Evaluation of Forest Watershed Hydro-Ecology using Measured Data and RHESSys Model -For the Seolmacheon Catchment- (관측자료와 RHESSys 모형을 이용한 산림유역의 생태수문 적용성 평가 -설마천유역을 대상으로-)

  • Shin, Hyung Jin;Park, Min Ji;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.12
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    • pp.1293-1307
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    • 2012
  • This study is to evaluate the RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System) simulated streamflow (Q), evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), gross primary productivity (GPP) and photosynthetic productivity (PSNnet) with the measured data. The RHESSys is a hydro-ecological model designed to simulate integrated water, carbon, and nutrient cycling and transport over spatially variable terrain. A 8.5 $km^2$ Seolma-cheon catchment located in the northwest of South Korea was adopted. The catchment covers 90.0% forest and the dominant soil is sandy loam. The model was calibrated with 2 years (2007-2008) daily Q at the watershed outlet and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) GPP, PSNnet and 3 year (2007~2009) daily ET data measured at flux tower using the eddy-covariance technique. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (ME) for Q were 0.74 and 0.63, and the average $R^2$ for ET and GPP were 0.54 and 0.93 respectively. The model was validated with 1 year (2009) Q and GPP. The $R^2$ and the ME for Q were 0.92 and 0.84, the $R^2$ for GPP were 0.93.

Cross-Calibration of GOCI-II in Near-Infrared Band with GOCI (GOCI를 이용한 GOCI-II 근적외 밴드 교차보정)

  • Eunkyung Lee;Sujung Bae;Jae-Hyun Ahn;Kyeong-Sang Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_2
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    • pp.1553-1563
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    • 2023
  • The Geostationary Ocean Color Imager-II (GOCI-II) is a satellite designed for ocean color observation, covering the Northeast Asian region and the entire disk of the Earth. It commenced operations in 2020, succeeding its predecessor, GOCI, which had been active for the previous decade. In this study, we aimed to enhance the atmospheric correction algorithm, a critical step in producing satellite-based ocean color data, by performing cross-calibration on the GOCI-II near-infrared (NIR) band using the GOCI NIR band. To achieve this, we conducted a cross-calibration study on the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance of the NIR band and derived a vicarious calibration gain for two NIR bands (745 and 865 nm). As a result of applying this gain, the offset of two sensors decreased and the ratio approached 1. It shows that consistency of two sensors was improved. Also, the Rayleigh-corrected reflectance at 745 nm and 865 nm increased by 5.62% and 9.52%, respectively. This alteration had implications for the ratio of Rayleigh-corrected reflectance at these wavelengths, potentially impacting the atmospheric correction results across all spectral bands, particularly during the aerosol reflectance correction process within the atmospheric correction algorithm. Due to the limited overlapping operational period of GOCI and GOCI-II satellites, we only used data from March 2021. Nevertheless, we anticipate further enhancements through ongoing cross-calibration research with other satellites in the future. Additionally, it is essential to apply the vicarious calibration gain derived for the NIR band in this study to perform vicarious calibration for the visible channels and assess its impact on the accuracy of the ocean color products.

Utilization of Growing Degree Days as an Index of Growth Duration of Rice Varieties (Growing Degree Days를 이용한 수도품종의 생육기간 측정방법과 이용)

  • 이석순
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.173-183
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    • 1983
  • To evaluate growing degree days(GDD) as an index of growth duration of rice plants, 30 days old seedlings of 16 japonica and 14 indica/japonica varieties were transplanted six times from May 10 at the 10-day intervals at Gyeongsan in 1982. The number of days from transplanting to heading decreased as transplanting dates delayed in all japonica varietie and 4 indica/japonica varieties but that of 10 indica/japonica varieties decreased up to June 9 or June 19 transplantings and then it levelled off or increased with further delay of transplanting. However, GDD requirement was similar among transplanting dates at appropriate base temperatures; GDD could be better than calendar day system to classify maturity of varieties especially grown in a wide range of climatic conditions. Required GDD from transplanting to heading of all indica/japonica and early japonica varieties showened a smaller coefficient of variation (CV) compared to longer season japonica varieties. Among GDD methods, an accumulation of daily Max + Min temp./2 -$l0^{\circ}C$ showed the smallest CV for the duration from transplanting to heading, but for ripening period GDD calculated with adjusted maximum temperature when it was higher than $30^{\circ}C$ showed the best results. Heading date did not affect required GDD for maturity of japonica varieties, but in indica/japonica varieties GDD decreased as heading date delayed; at late transplantings ripening period of indica/japonica varieties was less extended compared to japonica varietes due to a decrease in grain weight.

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Period of the Strength Correction of the Concrete with the Temperature Level Based on Meteorological Data (기상자료를 이용한 콘크리트의 단계별 기온보정강도 적응기간 산정)

  • Han, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2008
  • According to Korean Architectural Standard Specification (KASS) , at the design stage of the specified concrete strength, strength correction with each temperature level should be considered to secure required strength at 28 days even in low temperature condition, In this paper, the period for the strength correction at the stage of mixture design of the concrete using ordinary Portland cement(OPC) specified in KASS was determined with each region of south Korea based on the meteorological data of KMA(Korea meteorological administration) by applying KASS-5 regulation. In case of 28 days of strength control age, the period for strength correction with 6MPa was calculated to $50{\sim}60$ days and, with 3 MPa. to around 80 days. The period for the strength correction was shown to be decreased with the rise of altitude. The period to consider the delay of the strength development due to low temperature including the period of cold weather concrete was nearly 7 months around 1 year. References for determining the strength correction factors with each region of south Korea was provided in this paper. Further investigation of strength correction of the concrete containing blended cement is to studied.

Analysis of Load Carrying Capacity of Bridges Based on Field Data with Serviced Time (실측자료에 기초한 공용년수 증가에 따른 교량 내하력 분석)

  • Kyung, Kab Soo;Lee, Yeong Il;Lee, Sung Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, change of load carrying capacity of bridges with time was analyzed referring to the safety inspect data stored in the KISTEC. From this study, it was known that the capacity is rated differently by various parameters such as inspector's subjective. Accordingly, an improved method, in this paper, is suggested which can correct deviation due to several uncertainties involved in rating process. The suggested method can be utilized for efficient maintenance of bridges such as cycles and determination of priority of retrofit, and estimation of service life etc.

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Behavior and Stream Water Quality using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화가 충주댐 유역의 수문학적 거동 및 하천수질에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Park, Jong-Yoon;Park, Min-Ji;Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 이용하여 미래 기후변화가 댐 유역의 하천수질에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 충주댐 상류유역($6,585.1km^2$)에 대해 민감도 분석을 통해 최적의 유출및 유사관련 매개변수를 선정하였으며, 충주호 유입하천 상류 2개 지점/영월1, 영월2)과 유역 출구점을 대상으로 일별 유출량 및 월별 수질자료를 바탕으로 모형의 보정(1998-2000)및 검증(2001-2003)을 실시하였다. 미래 기후자료는 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)에서 제공하는 SRES/Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2, A1B, B1 기후변화시나리오의 MIROC3.2 hires와 ECHAM5-OM 모델의 결과 값을 이용하였다. 먼저 과거 30년 기후자료(1977-2006, baseline)를 바탕으로 각 모델별 20C3M(20th Century Climate Coupled Model)의 모의 결과 값을 이용하여 강수와 온도를 보정한 뒤 Change Factor(CF) Method로 Downscaling 하였으며, 미래 기후변화 시나리오는 2020s, 2050s, 2080s의 세 기간으로 나누어 각각 분석 하였다. 기후변화 시나리오 적용에 따른 SWAT 모의결과로부터 기후변화가 수문학적 거동 및 하천수질에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다.

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