• Title/Summary/Keyword: 베이지안 통계분석

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Bayesian Model Selection of Lifetime Models using Fractional Bayes Factor with Type ?$\pm$ Censored Data (제2종 중단모형에서 FRACTIONAL BAYES FACTOR를 이용한 신뢰수명 모형들에 대한 베이지안 모형선택)

  • 강상길;김달호;이우동
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we consider a Bayesian model selection problem of lifetime distributions using fractional Bayes factor with noninformative prior when type II censored data are given. For a given type II censored data, we calculate the posterior probability of exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions and select the model which gives the highest posterior probability. Our proposed methodology is explained and applied to real data and simulated data.

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Comparison of nomogram construction methods using chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (만성 폐쇄성 폐질환을 이용한 노모그램 구축과 비교)

  • Seo, Ju-Hyun;Lee, Jea-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.329-342
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    • 2018
  • Nomogram is a statistical tool that visualizes the risk factors of the disease and then helps to understand the untrained people. This study used risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and compared with logistic regression model and naïve Bayesian classifier model. Data were analyzed using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 6th (2013-2015). First, we used 6 risk factors about COPD. We constructed nomogram using logistic regression model and naïve Bayesian classifier model. We also compared the nomograms constructed using the two methods to find out which method is more appropriate. The receiver operating characteristic curve and the calibration plot were used to verify each nomograms.

Comparative Study of Model Selection Using Bayes Factor through Simulation : Poisson vs. Negative Binomial Model Selection and Normal, Double Exponential vs. Cauchy Model Selection (시뮬레이션을 통한 베이즈요인에 의한 모형선택의 비교연구 : 포아송, 음이항모형의 선택과 정규, 이중지수, 코쉬모형의 선택)

  • 오미라;윤소영;심정욱;손영숙
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.335-349
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we use Bayesian method for model selection of poisson vs. negative binomial distribution, and normal, double exponential vs. cauchy distribution. The fractional Bayes factor of O'Hagan (1995) was applied to Bayesian model selection under the assumption of noninformative improper priors for all parameters in the models. Through the analyses of real data and simulation data, we examine the usefulness of the fractional Bayes factor in comparison with intrinsic Bayes factors of Berger and Pericchi (1996, 1998).

A Comparative Study of the Relationship between Port Effeciency and Ownership Structure (항만 소유구조에 따른 효율성 모형 비교연구)

  • Hwang, Jin-Soo;Jorn, Hong-Suk;Kan, Sung-Chan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1167-1176
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    • 2009
  • Few studies have investigated the quantitative relationship between port ownership structure and port efficiency with mixed results. This paper therefore contributes to the empirical literature by investigating the impact of port privatization on port efficiency using sample data drawn from the world's major ports. Moreover, this study applies the Bayesian approach to estimate the impact of port ownership on port efficiency. We fit Bayesian stochastic frontier model which is introduced by Griffin and Steel (2007) by WinBUGS. World's 25 main ports data are used for analysis. Based on MCMC sampling, we estimate parameters of the model and efficiency index of each ports. Moreover, we add estimates from package Frontier 4.1c in order to compare them with Bayesian results.

Bayesian analysis of finite mixture model with cluster-specific random effects (군집 특정 변량효과를 포함한 유한 혼합 모형의 베이지안 분석)

  • Lee, Hyejin;Kyung, Minjung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2017
  • Clustering algorithms attempt to find a partition of a finite set of objects in to a potentially predetermined number of nonempty subsets. Gibbs sampling of a normal mixture of linear mixed regressions with a Dirichlet prior distribution calculates posterior probabilities when the number of clusters was known. Our approach provides simultaneous partitioning and parameter estimation with the computation of classification probabilities. A Monte Carlo study of curve estimation results showed that the model was useful for function estimation. Examples are given to show how these models perform on real data.

Bayesian analysis of cumulative logit models using the Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (몬테칼로깁스표본기법을 이용한 누적로짓 모형의 베이지안 분석)

  • 오만숙
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.151-161
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    • 1997
  • An easy Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling approach is suggested for Bayesian analysis of cumulative logit models for ordinal polytomous data. Because in the cumulative logit model the posterior conditional distributions of parameters are not given in convenient forms for random sample generation, appropriate latent variables are introduced into the model so that in the new model all the conditional distributions are given in very convenient forms for implementation of the Gibbs sampler.

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Semi-Supervised Learning by Gaussian Mixtures (정규 혼합분포를 이용한 준지도 학습)

  • Choi, Byoung-Jeong;Chae, Youn-Seok;Choi, Woo-Young;Park, Chang-Yi;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.825-833
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    • 2008
  • Discriminant analysis based on Gaussian mixture models, an useful tool for multi-class classifications, can be extended to semi-supervised learning. We consider a model selection problem for a Gaussian mixture model in semi-supervised learning. More specifically, we adopt Bayesian information criterion to determine the number of subclasses in the mixture model. Through simulations, we illustrate the usefulness of the criterion.

A Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model with random effects with application to smoking behavior (랜덤효과를 포함한 영과잉 포아송 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 추론: 흡연 자료에의 적용)

  • Kim, Yeon Kyoung;Hwang, Beom Seuk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.287-301
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    • 2018
  • It is common to encounter count data with excess zeros in various research fields such as the social sciences, natural sciences, medical science or engineering. Such count data have been explained mainly by zero-inflated Poisson model and extended models. Zero-inflated count data are also often correlated or clustered, in which random effects should be taken into account in the model. Frequentist approaches have been commonly used to fit such data. However, a Bayesian approach has advantages of prior information, avoidance of asymptotic approximations and practical estimation of the functions of parameters. We consider a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model with random effects for correlated zero-inflated count data. We conducted simulation studies to check the performance of the proposed model. We also applied the proposed model to smoking behavior data from the Regional Health Survey (2015) of the Korea Centers for disease control and prevention.

KCYP data analysis using Bayesian multivariate linear model (베이지안 다변량 선형 모형을 이용한 청소년 패널 데이터 분석)

  • Insun, Lee;Keunbaik, Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.703-724
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    • 2022
  • Although longitudinal studies mainly produce multivariate longitudinal data, most of existing statistical models analyze univariate longitudinal data and there is a limitation to explain complex correlations properly. Therefore, this paper describes various methods of modeling the covariance matrix to explain the complex correlations. Among them, modified Cholesky decomposition, modified Cholesky block decomposition, and hypersphere decomposition are reviewed. In this paper, we review these methods and analyze Korean children and youth panel (KCYP) data are analyzed using the Bayesian method. The KCYP data are multivariate longitudinal data that have response variables: School adaptation, academic achievement, and dependence on mobile phones. Assuming that the correlation structure and the innovation standard deviation structure are different, several models are compared. For the most suitable model, all explanatory variables are significant for school adaptation, and academic achievement and only household income appears as insignificant variables when cell phone dependence is a response variable.

Design and Implementation of Trip Generation Model Using the Bayesian Networks (베이지안 망을 이용한 통행발생 모형의 설계 및 구축)

  • Kim, Hyun-Gi;Lee, Sang-Min;Kim, Kang-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.79-90
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    • 2004
  • In this study, we applied the Bayesian Networks for the case of the trip generation models using the Seoul metropolitan area's house trip survey Data. The household income was used for the independent variable for the explanation of household size and the number of cars in a household, and the relationships between the trip generation and the households' social characteristics were identified by the Bayesian Networks. Furthermore, trip generation's characteristics such as the household income, household size and the number of cars in a household were also used for explanatory variables and the trip generation model was developed. It was found that the Bayesian Networks were useful tool to overcome the problems which were in the traditional trip generation models. In particular the various transport policies could be evaluated in the very short time by the established relationships. It is expected that the Bayesian Networks will be utilized as the important tools for the analysis of trip patterns.