• Title/Summary/Keyword: 배출 요인

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Explainable Solar Irradiation Forecasting Based on Conditional Random Forests (조건부 랜덤 포레스트 기반의 설명 가능한 일사량 예측)

  • Moon, Jihoon;Hwang, Eenjun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2020.05a
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    • pp.323-326
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    • 2020
  • 태양광 발전은 이산화탄소 배출로 인한 기후 변화에 대응하는 주요 수단으로 인식되어 수요와 필요성이 급격하게 증가하고 있다. 최적의 태양광 발전 시스템의 운영을 위해서는 정교한 전력수요 및 태양광 발전량 예측 모델이 요구되며, 온도 및 일사량은 태양광 발전량 예측 모델의 필수적인 입력 변수이다. 하지만, 한국 기상청의 동네예보는 일사량에 관한 예측값을 제공하지 않아 정교한 태양광 발전량 예측 모델을 구축하는 것은 어렵다. 이를 위해 일사량 예측 기법에 관한 많은 연구사례가 보고되고 있지만, 다수의 연구들은 충분한 데이터 셋을 이용하여 일사량 예측 모델을 개발하였다. 초기 태양광 발전 시스템 운영을 위해서는 불충분한 데이터 셋을 이용한 예측 모델 개발이 필요하나 이에 대한 사례는 불충분하다. 본 논문은 실제 태양광 발전 시스템에서 수집된 불충분한 데이터 셋을 이용한 단기 일사량 예측 기법을 제안한다. 먼저, 기상청 동네예보의 다양한 기상 요인들을 이용하여 일사량 예측 모델을 위한 입력 변수를 구성한다. 다음으로, 조건부 랜덤 포레스트를 이용하여 일사량 예측 모델을 구성하며, 설명 가능한 일사량 예측뿐만 아니라 더욱더 많은 데이터 셋을 학습하기 위해 시계열 교차검증을 수행한다. 실험 결과, 제안한 기법은 다른 예측 기법들보다 높은 예측 정확도를 보일 뿐만 아니라 설명 가능한 예측 결과를 제시할 수 있음을 보여준다.

Deriving IDF curve of Busan region using nonstationary GEV model based on RCP scenarios (RCP 시나리오 자료와 비정상성 GEV 모형을 이용한 부산지역 IDF곡선 유도)

  • Kim, Heechul;Seo, Miru;Lee, Taewon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.168-168
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    • 2022
  • 최근 인간의 인위적인 활동으로 인하여 대기 중 온실가스의 배출량이 급격히 증가하였고, 이에 따라 전 세계적인 지구온난화로 인한 이상기후가 발생하고 있다. 특히, 홍수, 가뭄, 태풍 등 극한 수문 현상들의 변화가 두드러지게 나타나고 있으며, 강우 특성의 변화는 극한 수문 현상의 직접적인 요인으로 작용한다. 현재 확률강우량을 추정하는 가장 보편적인 방법은 과거 강우 자료를 바탕으로 빈도해석을 수행하고 있으며, 지속기간별로 산정한 확률강우량은 강우강도-지속기간-빈도(Intensity-Duration-Frequency, IDF)곡선으로 유도하여 수공구조물 설계에 사용되고 있다. 그러나 기후변화의 영향으로 집중호우와 잦은 홍수로 인한 피해가 증가함에 따라 과거 강우자료를 바탕으로 확률강우강도를 활용하여 확률 강우량을 추정하는 것이 매우 어려워졌다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 1975년도부터 2020년도까지의 현재기간 모의자료, 2021년도부터 2100년도까지의 미래 강우자료와 기후변화 시나리오인 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 활용한다. 또한, 부산지역을 대상으로 비정상성 GEV 모형을 활용하여 지역빈도해석을 수행하였고, 미래 설계강우량 산정을 위한 비정상성 IDF곡선을 유도하여 분석하고자 한다.

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A Study on the Factors that Influence the Digital Transformation of the Supply Chain on the Enterprise Environmental Performance of Chinese Automobile Manufacturers (공급망의 디지털 전환이 중국 자동차 제조기업의 환경성과에 미치는 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Yujie Cai;Jae yeon Sim
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.207-221
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    • 2024
  • Automotive manufacturing is a traditional manufacturing industry that consumes a lot of energy and emits a lot of pollutants, and needs to improve environmental performance through digital transformation of supply chains.In this study, 13 hypotheses were put forward based on supply chain digital transformation, supply chain dynamic capability and enterprise environmental performance. The results of the questionnaire survey on the managers and employees of automobile manufacturing enterprises in 7 regions of China show that the digital transformation of supply chain can help improve the environmental performance of automobile manufacturing enterprises under the influence of supply chain dynamic capability

Empirical Study of Key Factors in Satisfaction with Subway Services (지하철 이용만족도 결정요인에 관한 실증적 연구 -서울지역을 중심으로-)

  • Shim, Jong-Seop;Jeon, Ki-Heung
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.13
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 2000
  • Despite the fact that understanding customers satisfaction with transportation services is a subject of great importance, authors, so far, found no systematic researches referred to that issue. From this point, studying the satisfaction with subways services can be extremely useful. Empirical study of key factors in the satisfaction with subway services is the departure point, which holds as objectives, and we believe, will contribute to overall increasing in the number of subways services used and in the amount of public benefits derived from that usage. In order to achieve these goals: First, several items referred to some key factors in the satisfaction of subway usage were systemized. Second, a research of specific weights attached to those key factors by subway passengers was conducted. Knowledge of the satisfaction variables system can provide deep insights into ones perceptual experience when using a subway. The results were as follows: Various interrelated factors compose a passengers satisfaction with subway services. People do not just use subway passively; a number of key factors, like physical and personal services, exact timing, easiness to access etc. determine the passengers satisfaction with subway. In order to find out specific weights of these key factors multiple regression analysis was employed. Results showed that satisfaction with subway is determined by (in order of importance) easiness to access, quality of physical services, friendliness of working stuff and timing exactness. According to the findings, passengers do not use subway as a simple mean of transportation, rather they perceive it as a complex combination of environmental elements and overall satisfaction depends on these various factors. Therefore, to learn passengers satisfaction with subways services, passengers subway experience must be thoroughly studied and analyzed, and this is where papers value resides.

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Estimation of Carbon Emission and Application of LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) from Barely (Hordeum vulgare L.) Production System (보리의 생산과정에서 발생하는 탄소배출량 산정 및 전과정평가 적용)

  • So, Kyu-Ho;Park, Jung-Ah;Lee, Gil-Zae;Ryu, Jong-Hee;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Roh, Kee-An
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.722-727
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the carbon footprint and to establish the database of the LCI (Life Cycle Inventory) for barely cultivation system. Barley production system was separated into the naked barley, the hulled barley and the two-rowed barley according to type of barley species. Based on collecting the data for operating LCI, it was shown that input of fertilizer was the highest value of 9.52E-01 kg $kg^{-1}$ for two-rowed braley. For LCI analysis focussed on the greenhouse gas (GHG), it was observed that carbon footprint were 1.25E+00 kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ naked braley, 1.09E+00 kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ hulled braley and 1.71E+00 $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ two-rowed barley; especially two-rowed barley cultivation system had highest emission value as 1.09E+00 kg $CO_2$ $kg^{-1}$ barley. It might be due to emit from mainly fertilizer production for barley cultivation. Also $N_2O$ was emitted at 7.55E-04 kg $N_2O\;kg^{-1}$ barley as highest value from hulled barley cultivation system because of high N fertilizer input. The result of life cycle impcat assessment (LCIA), it was observed that most of carbon emission from barely cultivation system was mainly attributed to fertilizer production and cropping unit. Characterization value of GWP was 1.25E+00 (naked barley), 1.09E+00 (hulled barley) and 1.71E+00 (two-rowed barely) kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$, respectively.

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases by Water Management of SRI (System of Rice Intensification) in Rice Paddy Fields (논에서 SRI (System of Rice Intensification) 물 관리 방법을 적용한 온실가스 저감 효과)

  • Kim, Gun-Yeob;Lee, Seul-Bi;Lee, Jong-Sik;Choi, Eun-Jung;Ryu, Jong-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1173-1178
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    • 2012
  • Water competition among domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors has been gradually heightened recently in Korea as the lack of water supply is expected in the near future. About 46% of nation's water use is consumed in paddy farming to produce rice. And the conservation of water resource and quality in agricultural sector is a pending issue in the nation's long term water management plan. New paddy rice farming techniques that use significantly less irrigation water are urgently required. System of Rice Intensification (SRI) that is now well known to produce more rice with less water consumption has not been tried in Korea yet. And environmental effect of SRI on greenhouse gases (GHGs) has not been well investigated. The objective of this study was to measure the effect of SRI on GHGs as well as water use and rice yield in a Korean paddy condition. Three experimental runoff plots $5{\times}15m$ in size were prepared at an existing paddy field. Runoff, GHGs emission and water quality were measured during the 2011 growing seasons while a Japonica rice variety was cultivated. Rice plants grew better and healthier in SRI plots than in continuously flooded (CF) and intermittently drained (ID) plots. Rice yield from SRI plots increased 112.8 (ID)~116.1 (CF)% compared with CF and ID plots. Irrigation requirement of SRI plots compared to CF plot reduced by 52.6% and ID plot reduced by 62.0%, meaning that about 37.9~47.4% of irrigation water could be saved. GHGs emission from SRI plots reduced by 71.8% compared to that from CF plot and by 18.4% compared to that from ID plot, meaning that SRI could help contribute to ease the greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. It was believed that SRI is a promising paddy farming technique that could increase rice yield, and reduce irrigation water requirement and GHGs emission not just in Korea but also other rice farming countries all over the world. However, it was recommended that long term studies under different conditions including rice variety, soil texture, water source, climate need to be conducted for reliable data for the development of environmental policies related to GHGs emission control and management.

LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) for Evaluating Carbon Emission from Conventional Rice Cultivation System: Comparison of Top-down and Bottom-up Methodology (관행농 쌀 생산체계의 탄소배출량 평가를 위한 전과정평가: top-down 방식의 국가평균값과 bottom-up 방식의 사례분석값 비교)

  • Ryu, Jong-Hee;Jung, Soon Chul;Kim, Gun-Yeob;Lee, Jong-Sik;Kim, Kye-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1143-1152
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    • 2012
  • We established a top-down methodology to estimate carbon footprint as national mean value (reference) with the statistical data on agri-livestock incomes in 2007. We also established LCI (life cycle inventory) DB by a bottom-up methodology with the data obtained from interview with farmers from 4 large-scale farms at Gunsan, Jeollabuk-do province to estimate carbon footprint in 2011. This study was carried out to compare top-down methodology and bottom-up methodology in performing LCA (life cycle assessment) to analyze the difference in GHGs (greenhouse gases) emission and carbon footprint under conventional rice cultivation system. Results of LCI analysis showed that most of $CO_2$ was emitted during fertilizer production and rice cultivation, whereas $CH_4$ and $N_2O$ were mostly emitted during rice cultivation. The carbon footprints on conventional rice production system were 2.39E+00 kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ by top-down methodology, whereas 1.04E+00 kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ by bottom-up methodology. The amount of agro-materials input during the entire rice cultivation for the two methodologies was similar. The amount of agro-materials input for the bottom-up methodology was sometimes greater than that for top-down methodology. While carbon footprint by the bottom-up methodology was smaller than that by the top-down methodology due to higher yield per cropping season by the bottom-up methodology. Under the conventional rice production system, fertilizer production showed the highest contribution to the environmental impacts on most categories except GWP (global warming potential) category. Rice cultivation was the highest contribution to the environmental impacts on GWP category under the conventional rice production system. The main factors of carbon footprints under the conventional rice production system were $CH_4$ emission from rice paddy field, the amount of fertilizer input and rice yield. Results of this study will be used for establishing baseline data for estimating carbon footprint from 'low carbon certification pilot project' as well as for developing farming methods of reducing $CO_2$ emission from rice paddy fields.

Field Investigation of Environment Parameter in Aerobic Composting for Pig Slurry at a Scraper System (스크레파 축사에서 배출되는 돈분뇨슬러리 호기성 퇴비화의 환경요인 현장조사)

  • Ryoo, Jong-Won
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.183-192
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    • 2008
  • This study was carried out to investigate the temperature, water balance, evaporation and physicochemical properties during the composting with pig slurry at a scraper system. The pig slurry was composted on farm trial using continuous aeration with turning machine for 5 month. A compost facility of rectangular concrete bin with dimension of 53 m (length) ${\times}$ 4.6 m (width) ${\times}$ 2 m (height) was bedded with sawdust. The environmental parameters were monitored in period of 5 months. The results were as follows ; 1. During the composting period, the temperature was varied in the range $50{\sim}70^{\circ}C$. The temperature of compost pile was highest in middle layer and lowest in under layer. Temperature difference between middle and under area of compost pile was $5{\sim}20^{\circ}C$. 2. The water content of compost pile varied $50{\sim}68%$. In the period of 50% of water content of compost pile, the temperature of compost was $20{\sim}30^{\circ}C$ and was not successfully composted. 3. In this study, total evaporation was 90% during composting. The amount of slurry per $1m^3$ sawdust by this method was $3.16m^3$ without treatment of effluent output. 4. The chemical properties of produced compost was high, but suitable for plant growth. Concentration of T-N, T-C in the final compost were 1.62, 34%, respectively.

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The Evolution of Economic Structure and the Locational Characteristics of Enterprises in Border Region of Gyeonggi Province (경기도 접경지역의 경제구조변화와 기업의 입지특성)

  • 이현주;이승헌
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.203-225
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper analyzes the characteristics of economic space in Gyeonggi border regions. Especially, this study focuses on understanding the environment enveloped the enterprises because today, largely influenced factor for regional economic development is enterprises. Since 1990's the change of the spacial organization in Korean Capital region has been inducing the functional transformation in Gyeonggi border regions so that new function -beyond military functions- is developed in these regions. By the disindustrialization in core region contributed to the industrialization in periphery, border regions are developed as a concentrated space of traditional industries and small size manufactural firms. The most important pull factor is facility for obtain a factory site and favorable condition of land price. Globally, the reasons to locate enterprise in these regions are found not in positive and progressive strategies but in passive and defensive strategies. Therefore few enterprise carried about influences of economic cooperation between North and South Korea at the moment of decision of their site. The survey reveal that enterprises didn't highly estimate the environment in border regions as their business activities. The first dissatisfied condition is insufficiency of labour and difficulty of access for administrative and high level services, due to geographical separation. Considering the recent tendency of spacial reorganization in Capital region is not always good for border regions, border regions have to employ a policy with the object of ameliorating regional business environments and growing up a potentiality of endogenous development.

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Assessment of Drought Vulnerability in Musoo Area According to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 무수지구 가뭄 취약성 평가)

  • KIM, Sun Joo;KANG, Seung Mook;BARK, Min Woo;KWON, Hyung Joong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.390-390
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    • 2018
  • 산업화에 따른 온실가스 배출량 증가는 심각한 기후변화의 요인으로 작용하여 우리나라를 포함한 전세계는 이에 대응하고자 노력하고 있다. 지구온난화 및 엘리뇨 현상 등으로 인하여 가뭄, 홍수, 한파, 혹서 등의 재해와 기상이변이 속출하고, 최근 우리나라의 경우 매년 가뭄이 발생하고 있어 이에 대한 대책이 시급한 실정이다. 이에 가뭄의 대처방안에 대한 관심이 증대 되었고, 가뭄을 정량적으로 하는 연구들과 기후변화에 따른 가뭄 취약성 평가에 대한 연구들이 진행 되었다. 가뭄의 취약성 평가는 기후변화에 따른 가뭄 저감을 위한 목적에 따라 평가목적, 평가방법, 필요한 정보, 과정의 설계 불확실성에 대한 고려 등이 달라진다. 취약성 평가의 목적은 크게 기후영향평가, 적응정책의 자원배분을 위한 취약부문 및 지역 파악, 적응정책 개발을 위한 적응 대안 분석으로 나눌 수 있다. 취약성 평가의 목적이 취약성 유발요인에 관한 정보를 제공하여 어디에 적응 대책에 필요하고 효과적일 수 있는지 파악하는데 도움을 주는 것이라면, 취약성 결정요인에 대한 분석을 명료하고 상세하게 수행하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 농업용수의 취약성 평가지표를 개발하기 위하여 국내 외 취약성 평가 지표를 분석, 국내 농업기상 및 농업용수 등 관련 자료(1981 ~ 2015)의 조사 현황을 고려하여 취약성 평가지표(강우량, 증발산량, 경지면적, 저수용량, 용수로 통수능력, 수요량, 하천평수위)를 제시하고 국내 농업기상 및 농업용수 등 관련 자료의 조사 현황을 고려하여 대상지구인 충북 진천 무수 관개지구에 취약성 지표를 적용하였다. 강우의 증가는 가뭄 취약성에 긍정적 영향을 나타냈고, 증발산량의 증가는 부정적인 영향을 나타냈다. 경지면적의 감소는 소비수량이 증가하므로 가뭄 취약성에 긍정적인 영향을 나타냈고, 저수 용량의 감소는 홍수조절능력의 저하로 인해 부정적인 영향을 끼치고, 하천 홍수위의 변화는 가뭄에 영향을 미치는 요소 중의 하나로 홍수위가 높아지면 가뭄에 부정적인 영향을 나타냈다. 가뭄 취약성 지표들을 각각의 가중치를 합산한 결과, 1981년~2015(5년 분할) 무수지구의 가뭄 취약성 평가는 분석을 시작한 1981년부터 2015년 까지 안전과 우려가 반복 되는 것으로 나타났다. 연구대상지구의 농업기상 및 관련 자료들의 조사 기간이 길면 빈도별 신뢰성이 높아진다. 따라서 자료의 누적은 정확한 기후변화에 대한 이수 및 치수 취약성 평가 지표개발 및 평가 능력을 높여 줄 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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