• Title/Summary/Keyword: 반복적 예측기법

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Time Series Perturbation Modeling Algorithm : Combination of Genetic Programming and Quantum Mechanical Perturbation Theory (시계열 섭동 모델링 알고리즘 : 운전자 프로그래밍과 양자역학 섭동이론의 통합)

  • Lee, Geum-Yong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.9B no.3
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    • pp.277-286
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    • 2002
  • Genetic programming (GP) has been combined with quantum mechanical perturbation theory to make a new algorithm to construct mathematical models and perform predictions for chaotic time series from real world. Procedural similarities between time series modeling and perturbation theory to solve quantum mechanical wave equations are discussed, and the exemplary GP approach for implementing them is proposed. The approach is based on multiple populations and uses orthogonal functions for GP function set. GP is applied to original time series to get the first mathematical model. Numerical values of the model are subtracted from the original time series data to form a residual time series which is again subject to GP modeling procedure. The process is repeated until predetermined terminating conditions are met. The algorithm has been successfully applied to construct highly effective mathematical models for many real world chaotic time series. Comparisons with other methodologies and topics for further study are also introduced.

Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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Water Quality Model Development for Loading Estimates from Paddy Field (논에서의 오염부하 예측을 위한 범용모형 개발)

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong;Hwang, Ha-Sun;Yoon, Kwang-Sik;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.3 s.104
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    • pp.344-355
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    • 2003
  • Water quality model applicable paddy field was developed using field experiment during 1999 ${\sim}$ 2002. This model involves inputs from fertilization and sediment release as dirac delta function and continuous source function, respectively, and can simulate various processes such as ponded depth, surface drainage, total nitrogen concentration and total phosphorus concentration in a daily basis. The model was calibrated using data collected from field experiments which was irrigated with ground water and validated from field experiments which was irrigated with surface water. The nutrient concentration of surface water depended on the fertilization and dirac delta function can efficiently explain the valiance of nutrient concentration of surface water by fertilizer. As a result of calibration and validation, this model demonstrates good agreement. The model fit efficiencies ($R^2$) of ponded depth, surface concentration of TN and TP were 0.93,0.98 and 0.95, respectively for calibration, and those of TN and TP were 0.99 and 0.70, respectively for validation. We can apply lake and reservoir model to analysis paddy field considered with shallow ponded system, but it will need so many parameters and have much uncertainty. Fortunately, paddy field have a series of cultural practices yearly basis, such as irrigation-fertilization-forced drain-harvest with a similar time , so simple model may explain the mechanism for paddy field. Water quality model for paddy field developed in this study is simply, needs little parameters, but appeared high applicability to evaluate paddy filed drainage. We recommend this model to estimate nutrient loading from paddy field and establish best management practice.

Mesocosm as a Scientific Tool for Marine Science: Focused on the Soft-bottom Environment (해양과학에서 mesocosm의 적용 사례 연구: 연성저질환경연구를 위한 도구)

  • Yang, Jae-Sam;Jeong, Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2011
  • This review has dealt with definition, size, history, and status of mesocosm, and also discussed several problems and trouble shootings related to the building of mesocosm, and finally will suggest the future directions of this scientific tool. Due to the restriction of the space, the discussion mainly focused on "the mesocosm building for the soft-bottom ecosystem". The mesocosm is defined as "medium-sized, self-sustaining, and man-controllable ecosystem". This type of studies has already initiated since 1960, but nowadays it expands to the diverse fields of science and technologies, such as toxicology, limnology, environmental sciences and engineering, and even geochemistry. As a scientific tool, the mesocosm requires following aspects; replicability, repeatability, and ecological realism or accuracy. Several technical problems have to be solved for the perfect building of mesocosm. They are known as scaling, composition of seawater/sediment, light intensity, turbulence, hydraulic residence time, and top predator. These trouble shootings are provided at the discussion in detail. In the context, I expect two promising directions in the future; 1. Objectivity based on the diverse statistical methodologies, 2. "Living ecosystem modelling" coordinated with the mathematical modelling. With these, the mesocosm will be more powerful tool for the scientists and engineers to investigate the chemical and the ecological responses to the toxic materials and global climate changes.

Back Analysis of the Earth Wall in Multi-layered Subgrade (다층지반에 근입된 흙막이 벽의 역해석에 관한 연구)

  • 이승훈;김종민;김수일;장범수
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a back-calculation technique leer the prediction of the behavior of earth wall inserted in multi-layered soil deposit. The soil properties are back-calculated from the measured displacement at each construction stage and the behavior of earth wall far the next construction stage is predicted using back-calculated soil properties. For multi-layered soil deposit, the back-calculation would be very difficult due to the increase in the number of variables. In this study, to solve this difficulty, the back-calculation was performed successively from the lowest layer to the upper layers. An efficient elasto-plastic beam-column analysis was used for forward analysis to minimize the computation time of iterative back-calculation procedure. The coefficients of subgrade reaction and lateral earth pressure necessary for the formation of p-y curve were selected as back calculation variables, and to minimize the effect of abnormal behavior of the wall which might be caused by any unexpected action during construction, the difference between measured displacement increment and computed displacement increment at each construction stages is used as the objective function of optimization. The constrained sequential linear programming was used for the optimization technique to found values of variables minimizing the objective function. The proposed method in this study was verified using numerically generated data and measured field data.

Acoustic Emission Signal Analysis for Damage Assessment of the Reinforced Concrete Slab Structures (철근 콘크리트 슬래브 구조 손상 평가를 위한 음향방출 신호분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hee;Han, Byeong-Hee;Seo, Dae-Cheol;Yoon, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.360-367
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    • 2009
  • The acoustic emission(AE) behavior of reinforced concrete slab under flexural loading was investigated to assess the integrity. This study was aimed at identifying the characteristics of AE response associated with damage development. By applying cyclic loading in various load steps, it was able to differentiate each AE source such as distributed micro crack initiation, friction, flexural crack and localized diagonal tension crack. The secondary peak and the change of AE hit rate gave valuable criteria fur assessment. From the analysis of the felicity ratio, furthermore, it was shown that this values can be used for evaluating the degree of concrete damage. Based on the experimental results, this approach for practical AE application may provide a promising method for estimating the level of damage and distress in concrete structures.

Improvement on Geomorphic Changes of Water Intakes at Haepyeng by Numerical Simulation (수치모의를 이용한 해평취수장의 취수장애 개선 연구)

  • Jang, Chang-Lae;Lee, Kwang-Man
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.373-377
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구는 하천수를 직접 취수하는 기존 취수장의 취수장애 문제를 해결하기 위한 대안을 개발하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 지금까지 취수장 문제해결 방법으로 검토되지 않았던 유로(流路) 및 하천의 지형변동을 GIS 및 항공사진을 이용하여 정량적으로 파악하였으며, 유사영역 구분 및 하도특성 분석, 하천 특성 해석에 적합한 이동경계 좌표계를 이용한 수치모형을 적용하여 2차원 하상 및 지형변동 예측을 검토하였다. 저수로의 이동 및 하상저하로 인하여 취수문제가 발생하고 있는 경상북도 구미시에 위치한 해평취수장 주변에 대하여 항공사진 분석 및 GIS 기법을 이용하여, 시간 경과에 따른 하천 형태 변화 저수로의 이동 특성을 조사하고 분석하였다. 저수로는 좌안에서 우안으로 이동해 가고 있으며, 이는 하천의 경사가 급하고 하폭이 증가하면서 발생하는 현상으로 저수로의 불안정성이 크게 증가 하는 특성을 보여주었다. 시간의 증가에 따라 저수로 하폭의 증가율이 감소하고 있으며, 수로의 측방 이동을 보여주고 있으며, 시간이 증가함에 따라 측방향 이동율이 감소하였다. 만재유량을 이용하여 유사의 영역구분을 수행한 결과, 망상하천으로서, 모래하천으로 부유사가 지배적인 하천으로 판단되었다. 2차원 수치모형을 이용하여 하상변동을 모의한 결과, 유량이 $2,000\;m^3/s$일 경우에는, 해평 취수장 측의 하천 하상은 상승하였으며, 구미정수장 측에서는 하상이 저하되었다. 홍수유량 $8,000\;m^3/s$일 경우에는 해평 취수장 측에서는 약간 저하하였고, 구미정수장 측에서는 하상이 상승하나, 직하류에서는 하상이 세굴되고, 하천 가운데 자리하고 있는 하중도는 커지는 현상을 보여 주었다. 또한 하중도 직하류에서는 하중도를 중심으로 좌안인 해평 취수장과 우안인 구미정수장 쪽으로 분류된 흐름이 합류되면서 하상에서는 퇴적과 세굴이 반복되며, 복렬 사주가 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 두 흐름에 의해 와(vortex)가 크게 형성되어 하상의 세굴에 영향을 미치기 때문으로 판단되었다.

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Determination of coagulant input rate in water purification plant using K-means algorithm and GBR algorithm (K-means 알고리즘과 GBR 알고리즘을 이용한 정수장 응집제 투입률 결정 기법)

  • Kim, Jinyoung;Kang, Bokseon;Jung, Hoekyung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.792-798
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, an algorithm for determining the coagulant input rate in the drug-injection tank during the process of the water purification plant was derived through big data analysis and prediction based on artificial intelligence. In addition, analysis of big data technology and AI algorithm application methods and existing academic and technical data were reviewed to analyze and review application cases in similar fields. Through this, the goal was to develop an algorithm for determining the coagulant input rate and to present the optimal input rate through autonomous driving simulator and pilot operation of the coagulant input process. Through this study, the coagulant injection rate, which is an output variable, is determined based on various input variables, and it is developed to simulate the relationship pattern between the input variable and the output variable and apply the learned pattern to the decision-making pattern of water plant operating workers.

Packet Loss Concealment Algorithm Based on Speech Characteristics (음성신호의 특성을 고려한 패킷 손실 은닉 알고리즘)

  • Yoon Sung-Wan;Kang Hong-Goo;Youn Dae-Hee
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.7C
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    • pp.691-699
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    • 2006
  • Despite of the in-depth effort to cantrol the variability in IP networks, quality of service (QoS) is still not guaranteed in the IP networks. Thus, it is necessary to deal with the audible artifacts caused by packet lasses. To overcame the packet loss problem, most speech coding standard have their own embedded packet loss concealment (PLC) algorithms which adapt extrapolation methods utilizing the dependency on adjacent frames. Since many low bit rate CELP coders use predictive schemes for increasing coding efficiency, however, error propagation occurs even if single packet is lost. In this paper, we propose an efficient PLC algorithm with consideration about the speech characteristics of lost frames. To design an efficient PLC algorithm, we perform several experiments on investigating the error propagation effect of lost frames of a predictive coder. And then, we summarize the impact of packet loss to the speech characteristics and analyze the importance of the encoded parameters depending on each speech classes. From the result of the experiments, we propose a new PLC algorithm that mainly focuses on reducing the error propagation time. Experimental results show that the performance is much higher than conventional extrapolation methods over various frame erasure rate (FER) conditions. Especially the difference is remarkable in high FER condition.

Analysis of Seasonal Variation Effect of the Traffic Accidents on Freeway (고속도로 교통사고의 계절성 검증과 요인분석 (중부고속도로 사례를 중심으로))

  • 이용택;김양지;김대현;임강원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2000
  • This paper is focused on verifying time-space repetition of the highway accident and finding the their causes and deterrents. We classify all months into several seasonal groups, develop the model for each seasonal group and analyze the results of these models for Joong-bu highway. The existence of seasonal effect is verified by the analysis or self-organizing map and the accident indices. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis which is used to decide the seasonal groups in accordance with accident patterns, winter group, spring-fall group. and summer group. The accident features of winter group are that the accident rate is high but the severity rate is low. while those of summer group are that the accident rate is low but the severity rate is high. Also, the regression model which is developed to identify the accident Pattern or each seasonal group represents that the season-related factors, such as the amount of rainfall, the amount of snowfall, days of rainfall, days of snowfall etc. are strongly related to the accident pattern of evert seasonal group and among these factors the traffic volume, amount of rainfall. the amount of snowfall and days of freezing importantly affect the local accident Pattern. So, seasonal effect should be considered to the identification of high-risk road section. the development of descriptive and Predictive accident model, the resource allocation model of accident in order to make safety management plan efficient.

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