• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.67-75
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• 2021

Despite the increase in sales of imported vehicles in Korea, research on the sales forecast of parts logistics centers is very limited. This study aims to perform a sales prediction on bestselling goods in the automobile part logistics center. System dynamics was adopted as a methodology for the prediction method, which considered causal relationship of variables that affected the dynamic characteristics and feedback loops. The analysis results showed that the consumable sales amount of oil increased over time. As a result of conducting the MAPE, the model was assessed to be a reasonable predictive model of 31.3%. In addition, the sales of battery products increased from every October in both of actual and predicted data followed by the peak sales in December and then decrease from next February. This study has academic implications that it secured actual data of specific imported automobile part logistics center, which has not done before in previous studies and quantitatively analyzed the prediction of the quantity of released goods of future sales through system dynamics.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.397-404
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• 2010

The Currently, most cargos of container transshipment between Busan Port and New Port are transported over land, and the rest is transported by barge. This study estimated firstly the traffic between those ports through simulations in order to analyze the feasibility of container transshipment by barge. It forecasted annual profitability using determinants to affect on the barge business by the traffic, and then, discussed the feasibility. This study supposed the flexible scenarios with 50%, 60%, 80%, or 100% transshipment and the 25 monthly barge service numbers between two ports, and measured the influences of different factors according to the above various scenarios. And then the sales were evaluated by the different traffics and freights scenarios provided the business would be actually operated. Finally, Net incomes were simulated to analyze the feasibility of different scenarios by various traffics and freights. The net income should be positive to get the feasibility. To achieve this, the minimum traffic should be secured and the lowest freight per TEU should be determined. While all countries of the world is controlling CO2 emissions and emphasizes the green logistics, this study contributed to solve at the same time the problems about the pollution and the efficiency of transportation by reviewing positively the feasibility of barge transportation as an alternative to transportation overland.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.69-88
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• 2023

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR² reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.410-410
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 미래 물 수요를 예측하여 하천의 유량 상황을 평가하였다. 이 자료를 현재의 관측유량 자료와 비교, 분석하여 유량의 변화 특성에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 유량변동 상황은 유량의 발생시기, 특정 유량의 지속기간, 발생빈도를 비교하여 평가하였다. 아울러 유량변동을 초래한 원인에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 이를 위해 일별 물수지 분석을 수행하였으며, 유황곡선분석, 수문량의 통계특성 변화를 분석하였다. 유량의 변동에 영향을 주는 요소로는 광역 물이동량, 유역내 저류량 및 대형 배출 시설물(하수종말처리시설)을 조사하였으며, 하천유량에 직접 기여하는 강수량에 대한 시기별 변동 상황도 함께 평가하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 하천유지유량 수급현황의 예측, 가용수량의 평가를 가능하게 하며, 향후 하천 및 하천의 유량관리에 필요한 자료로 활용할 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 1992.09a
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• pp.217-218
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• 1992

S사는 생산량 증대에 따른 물동량 증가에 대비하기 위하여 물류 시스템 개선안을 수립한 수 , 타다성을 검증하기 위해 시뮬레이션 기법을 채택하여 물류관점에서 현행 시스템 및 개선안에 대한 진단을 실시하였다. 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션 기법은 생산공정에 실질적인 물리적 변화를 가하지 않고도 "What-if" 라는 다양한 시나리오를 작성하고 이들에 대한 분석 및 평가를 통하여 그 가능성을 타진하며 최적안을 도출하는데 유용하게 이용되는 도구이다. 본 진단을 통하여 현행 시스템의 문제점을 정량적으로 파악하였다. 그리고, 물류 개선안에 대한 기대효과를 예측하고 발생가능한 문제점을 사전에 도출하여 시행착오를 최소화하는데 기여하고자 하였다.기여하고자 하였다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.20-42
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• 2010

This study is aimed at evaluating transshipment competitiveness of Incheon New Port which will open in 2013. For this reason, we used Conjoint Analysis(CA) for a methodology of this research as CA had been frequently adopted for empirical analysis of new container terminal in previous studies. We have provided the questionnaires to the stake holders of the port such as experts in Port Authority(PA), logistics companies, and terminal operators. The result showed that transshipment competitiveness of Incheon New Port was subordinate to transshipment costs and port costs of Busan and Shanghai. Overall, we hope this study could help draw up the policies on a New Port that will attract transshipment cargoes and set up marketing plan for an early settlement.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.663-670
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• 2014

The Pyeongtaek port is expected lack of waiting anchorage due to increase of incoming ships whit increasing of trading volume in the near future. In case of an anchorage facility's structural alternations and expansion, it should be considered comprehensively how it affects other anchorage facilities. In addition, the volume of ship traffic to relevant area should be estimated accurately and then the facility's scale is calculated. In this paper, researchers calculated cargo per unit ship with the throughput for every ship and predicted the number of ships which had entered Pyeongtaek port. As a result, the port's ability to be docked was predicted to be not enough in 2030. It will exceed the number of ships able to cast anchor at specific two parts simultaneously 12.6 and 1.6 respectively consequently, the necessity to expand the ports was suggested. Hence, the best expansion plan was examined with analysis of marine transportation environment at each ports and the improvements suggested are anchoring ships at Ippado anchorage is 19.7 and the one at Janganseo anchorage is 12.6.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.63-82
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to construct the logistics infrastructure for the exploitation of Saemangeum New Port that will be constructed in near future. To accomplish the purpose, this paper grasp the change of port logistics circumstances firstly. find out the project of the new port and construct the logistics infrastructure for the new port with the basic facts of the port competitiveness. The construction of the logistics infrastructure for the exploitation of Saemangeum New Port will be conducted as follows ; (1) Construction of logistics environment (2) Planning the port marketing for the extension a logistic market share (3) Construction of logistics chain and IT Network and finally (4) Construction of logistics community.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.241-260
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• 2011

This paper qualitatively describes logistics behaviors of 113 companies located in Daegu-Gyeongbuk by considering various characteristics such as business location, trade volume, cargo types and the possession of company's own warehouse. A logit model is developed to investigate how predictor variables affect these companies' inclination of utilizing Third Party Logistics Provider(3PL). The estimation results of 102 effective data points show that among the four predictors the location of company's HQs (HQADD) and trade volume (TRDTEU) significantly increase company's tendency towards utilizing 3PL while the remaining two variables (BULK, WAREHS) imparting statistically insignificant influence. The results indicate that those companies located outside the region tend to implement a strategy of using more 3PL and also that the larger the trade volume of the company the more 3PL the company uses to improve the efficiency in logistics.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 1998.03a
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• pp.37-37
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• 1998

현재 정부는 우리나라 물동량 증가에 따른 수도권 항만의 기능 재정립 및 신항만 입지를 선정하기 위한 조사·연구를 진행중이다. 본 연구에서는 현행 인천항의 항만 시스템과 신규항만 시스템에 대한 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션 모형을 개발하여 신항만 개발로 인한 선박대기시간의 감소 및 항만 체류 시간의 감소 등을 예측하였다. 이 결과는 신항만 개발의 경제적 타당성 분석에서 사용자 편익으로 활용될 수 있다. 시뮬레이션 모형은 ARENA를 이용하여 개발하였다. 수도권 항만 즉 인천항에서 처리되는 화물은 양곡을 비롯한 12개 품목이며, 각각의 화물은 5단계의 규모별로 나누어 선박의 도착간격 및 재항시간 분포 등을 1995년 인천항의 실제 자료를 토대로 추정하였다. 선박의 도착간격은 지수 분포로 나타났으며, 서비스시간은 삼각분포(Triangular Distribution)로 근사되었다. 화물량 예측치가 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2020년으로 되어 있고, 이에 따른 신항만 입지 및 규모가 결정됨에 따라 각 연도별로 신항만을 개발할 경우와 개발하지 않은 경우의 각각에 대한 연간 화물별 선박대기 시간 및 재항시간 등을 추정하였다.