• Korean Security Journal
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• no.40
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• pp.7-33
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• 2014

Korean Government decided to establish the Ministry of National Emergency Management and has reformed the emergency management system due to Sewol ferry disaster. These efforts has been focused on the hardware rather than the software. All-hazard approach has been employed as the one of main principles in the emergency management in the United States. All-hazards approach concerns arrangements for managing the large range of possible effects of risks and emergencies. Once the priority of risks and emergencies is decided, agencies prepare for them. In addition, interagency collaboration is critical for the preparation of risks and emergencies such as cooperation with local governments instead of FEMA alone. It is necessary to consider employing all-hazard approach for the Ministry of National Emergency Management. Moreover, 'Korean All-hazard approach' should be developed in order to manage upcoming emergencies.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.43
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• pp.7-35
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• 2015

The Ministry of Public Safety and Security was established in order to handle all sorts of disasters because of Sewol ferry tragedy and the fundamental reform on the emergency management system will be performed. The establishment of the Ministry of Public Safety and Security is considered as the landmark for the emergency management when it is compared to those in the United States and Japan in terms of the size and the authority. However, there are many tasks to be done for the settlement of the Ministry of Public Safety and Security. More specifically, a real and substantial plan should be prepared because the organization was established without blueprints or detailed implementation plan. This study suggests that all-hazard approach which is the one of the disaster management principles should be applied when the substantial plan is prepared. All possible hazard should be analyzed, assessed, and prioritized. In addition, Based on the results, the effective policies should be established with the consideration of Korean context.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.37-43
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• 2018

The storm surge is caused by an typhoons and it is not easy to predict the location, strength, route of the storm. Therefore, research using a scenario for storms occurrence has been conducted. In Korea, hazard maps for various scenarios were produced using the storm surge numerical simulation. Such a method has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to predict when other scenario occurs, and it is difficult to cope with in real time because the simulation time is long. In order to compensate for this, we developed a method to predict the storm surge damage by using research database. The risk grade prediction for the storm surge was performed predominantly in the study area of the East coast. In order to estimate the equation, COMSOL developed by COMSOL AB Corporation was utilized. Using some assumptions and limitations, the form of the basic equation was derived. the constants and coefficients in the equation were estimated by the trial and error method. Compared with the results, the spatial distribution of risk grade was similar except for the upper part of the map. In the case of the upper part of the map, it was shown that the resistance coefficient, k was calculated due to absence of elevation data. The SIND model is a method for real-time disaster prediction model and it is expected that it will be able to respond quickly to disasters caused by abnormal weather.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.388-390
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• 2006

투자안 가치평가 방법에는 화폐의 시간가치를 고려한 방법과 고려하지 않는 방법이 있다. 이중 가장 많이 쓰이고, 중요한 방법으로는 화폐의 시간 가치를 고려한 순현재가치법(NPV), 내부수익률법(IRR), 수익성지표법(Pl)등이 있다. 이중에서도 우리는 투자사업으로부터 사업의 최종년도까지 얻게 되는 순이익(수익-비용)의 흐름을 현재가치로 계산하는NPV 분석을 많이 실시하고 있다. 즉, 어떤 자산의 NPV가 0보다 크면 투자 시 기업가치의 순증가가 발생하므로 투자가치가 있는 것으로 평가하고 0보다 작으면 기업가치의 순감소가 발생하므로 투자가치가 없는 것으로 평가한다. 여기에서 많은 기업경영자 및 재무담당자들은 다음과 같은 의문을 갖고 NPV분석의 약점을 보안할 필요성을 제기하고 있다. “결과로부터 얻은 단일 값이 정말 신뢰할 만한 값인가?”, “만약 몇 가지의 리스크 요인이 우리의 사업모델에 영향을 미친다면 그 결과는 어떻게 달라질 것인가?”, “우리가 얻은 결과 값의 실현 가능성은 몇%이고 나머지 발생 가능한 값들의 분포는 어떻게 될 것인가?” 위 질문에 대한 답을 얻을 수 있다면 투자안에 대해 빠르고 올바른 의사결정을 내릴 수 있으며 실패의 위험을 줄일 수 있다 이런 분석을 가능하게 해 주는 것이 확률론적 분석이며, 즉 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기법이다. 이미 많은 선진 기업에서 이 방법을 통하여 모든 의사결정에 중요한 참고 자료로 이용하고 있으며 본 논문은 몬테카를로 분석의 대표적인 소프트웨어인 Crystal Ball을 이용하여 그 활용 사례를 소개하고자 한다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.771-783
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• 2018

The life insurance industry is interested in various factors that influence the long-term extensions of insurance contracts such as the necessity for the advisors' long-term management of consumers, product consulting, and improvement of the investment aspects. This paper investigates important factors leading to a long-term contract that forms an important part of the life insurance industry in Korea. For this purpose we used the data of contents (i.e., data from Jan 1, 2011 to Dec 31, 2016) of the contracts of xxx insurance company. In this paper, we present how to select important variables to influence the duration of the contract maintenance via a penalized Cox's proportional hazards (PH) modelling approach using insurance life data. As the result of analysis, we found that the selected important factors were the advisor's status, the reward type 2 (annuity insurance) and tendency 4 (safety-pursuing type).

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.10D no.4
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• pp.697-708
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• 2003

In a software product line approach, developers first develop common software architecture and components by analyzing the characteristics of all software members, and then produce each application by integrating components. The approach is considered very effective means for developing and maintaining in parallel a software product family. Main disadvantage of this approach is that it requires a big up-front investment in preparing product line. Therefore, it takes time to deliver the first version. In this paper, we present an incremental method to develop software families, which requires small additional cost for initial versions and allows an organization to move smoothly to full-scale product line. We present our method by explaining how to record and upgrade the results of variations analysis, and show the application of our method by developing a family of YBS. Our method is a low-risk approach that can be effectively applied to an organization that starts developing software systems but has to deliver the first versions quickly to the market.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.268-268
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• 2023

전 지구적 급격한 기후변화로 인해 수문기상인자들의 비선형적 변동성이 발생함과 동시에 가뭄, 홍수와 같은 수재해의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 따라, 세계의 유수기관 (NASA, ESA 등)에서는 대기모형과 해양 모형의 결합 및 수치해석적 접근법을 활용하여 계절내-계절 (Subseasonal to seasonal; S2S) 예측치를 생산하여 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)에서 산정되는 수문기상인자 (강수량, 증발산량 및 유출량)에 대한 정확도를 평가하고자 한다. 연구지역으로는 다양한 기후대 및 토지 피복으로 구성되어 있으며, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD)와 같은 기후 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 호주지역을 대상으로 연구를 수행하였다. ECMWF S2S 자료에 대한 통계적 검증은 1) 지점 기반 관측치와 더불어 2) 물수지 모델 기반 수문 추정치 (The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model; AWRA-L)와 비교하였다. 연구 결과 S2S 강우 및 증발산량 산정치의 경우 비교적 짧은 예측기간(약 2주)에서 상대적으로 높은 상관관계 (R=0.5~0.6)와 낮은 편차 (강수량 = 0.10 mm/day, 증발산량 = 0.21 mm/day)를 나타내었다. 유출량의 경우, 강우 및 증발산량에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 정확도를 나타내었으며, 예측 기간이 길어짐에 따라 불확실성이 상당히 높아지는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는, S2S 계산과정에서 강우 및 증발산량 뿐만아니라 지표 유출로 도달하기 전까지의 수문기상인자들의 불확실성이 모두 모여 유출량의 불확실성이 높아진 것으로 확인할 수 있었다. 계절적 검증에서는, 강우 및 증발산량 모두 여름철에 높은 상관관계를 나타내었지만 불확실성은 상대적으로 큰 값을 나타내었다. 자세한 분석을 위해, 공간적인 불확실성을 분석해본 결과 ECMWF S2S가 매우 습윤하거나 건조한 지역에서 수문기상인자를 예측하는데 있어 한계성이 나타난 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 토대로, 추후 S2S 예측치에 대한 보정과 더불어 미래의 수재해 발생 위험도에 대한 정보를 획득하는데 적용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.899-910
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• 2023

The majority of research on lifestyle has been conducted based on a variable-centered approach. However, over the last decades, there is a growing body of research on lifestyle in terms of a person-centered approach. Hence, this study identifies senior generations' profiles based on the combination of the five realms of lifestyle. More specifically, this study utilized a Latent profile analysis(LPA) to explore both quantitatively and qualitatively distinct types of senior generation' lifestyle profiles. As a result, the five distinct types of senior lifestyle profiles were identified and these five profiles were then contrasted with traveling attitude and behavioral intention(traveling intention). In addition, this study attempted to identify similarity in the patterns of relations with theoretical antecedent, correlate and outcome variables. Results showed that even though senior generation belonging to profile groups pertaining to the high level of all five types of lifestyle were associated with a high level of attitude and behavior intention, there was no differences among the profiles. This means that regardless of the patterns of senor generation lifestyle profiles, there was no similarity. Nevertheless, it should be considered that senior generation consider a security when making a travel ling decision regardless of the patterns of lifestyle profiles. This results suggest that senior generation' traveling satisfaction is more likely obtained with the experience of safety and convenience during their travel. At last, this study discusses some implication tourism theory related to lifestyle, practices and future research on tourism profiles.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.1634-1647
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• 2007

"To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.

• Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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• v.19 no.1 s.43
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• pp.47-64
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• 2007

The purpose of this study was to develop, apply and evaluate the teaching learning plan for disabled experimental activity to evaluate the accessibility of middle school experimental facilities. Three main resources such as 2 hours teaching learning plan for disabled activity, recording sheets and evaluation sheets had been developed. The process plan had been applied 214 senior students in 7 middle schools purposely selected by areas, constructed years, number of stories of school during November to December, 2005. General accessible levels of middle school facilities was somewhat inadequate especially exterior slops, toilets, bowls were the most unaccessible ones. Most of all students had accidents and/or injuries in school environments from minor to major ones. Male Students were more likely than female Students to get injuries. Students experience of accidents and injuries and awareness of inconvenience, danger, needed facilities supported. the result of the accessibility levels evaluated by disabled activities. Students were generally satisfied with and positive to the teaching learning process plan developed and applied in this study. Students had improved critical Perspectives as well as awareness of inaccessible chances in the school facilities through the experimental process. The evaluation as differed by school characteristics and students' interests in disability.