• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.67-74
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• 2015

In recent years, frequent itemset mining for considering the importance of each item has been intensively studied as one of important issues in the data mining field. According to strategies utilizing the item importance, itemset mining approaches for discovering itemsets based on the item importance are classified as follows: weighted frequent itemset mining, frequent itemset mining using transactional weights, and utility itemset mining. In this paper, we perform empirical analysis with respect to frequent itemset mining algorithms based on transactional weights. The mining algorithms compute transactional weights by utilizing the weight for each item in large databases. In addition, these algorithms discover weighted frequent itemsets on the basis of the item frequency and weight of each transaction. Consequently, we can see the importance of a certain transaction through the database analysis because the weight for the transaction has higher value if it contains many items with high values. We not only analyze the advantages and disadvantages but also compare the performance of the most famous algorithms in the frequent itemset mining field based on the transactional weights. As a representative of the frequent itemset mining using transactional weights, WIS introduces the concept and strategies of transactional weights. In addition, there are various other state-of-the-art algorithms, WIT-FWIs, WIT-FWIs-MODIFY, and WIT-FWIs-DIFF, for extracting itemsets with the weight information. To efficiently conduct processes for mining weighted frequent itemsets, three algorithms use the special Lattice-like data structure, called WIT-tree. The algorithms do not need to an additional database scanning operation after the construction of WIT-tree is finished since each node of WIT-tree has item information such as item and transaction IDs. In particular, the traditional algorithms conduct a number of database scanning operations to mine weighted itemsets, whereas the algorithms based on WIT-tree solve the overhead problem that can occur in the mining processes by reading databases only one time. Additionally, the algorithms use the technique for generating each new itemset of length N+1 on the basis of two different itemsets of length N. To discover new weighted itemsets, WIT-FWIs performs the itemset combination processes by using the information of transactions that contain all the itemsets. WIT-FWIs-MODIFY has a unique feature decreasing operations for calculating the frequency of the new itemset. WIT-FWIs-DIFF utilizes a technique using the difference of two itemsets. To compare and analyze the performance of the algorithms in various environments, we use real datasets of two types (i.e., dense and sparse) in terms of the runtime and maximum memory usage. Moreover, a scalability test is conducted to evaluate the stability for each algorithm when the size of a database is changed. As a result, WIT-FWIs and WIT-FWIs-MODIFY show the best performance in the dense dataset, and in sparse dataset, WIT-FWI-DIFF has mining efficiency better than the other algorithms. Compared to the algorithms using WIT-tree, WIS based on the Apriori technique has the worst efficiency because it requires a large number of computations more than the others on average.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.71-84
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• 2013

Log data, which record the multitude of information created when operating computer systems, are utilized in many processes, from carrying out computer system inspection and process optimization to providing customized user optimization. In this paper, we propose a MongoDB-based unstructured log processing system in a cloud environment for processing the massive amount of log data of banks. Most of the log data generated during banking operations come from handling a client's business. Therefore, in order to gather, store, categorize, and analyze the log data generated while processing the client's business, a separate log data processing system needs to be established. However, the realization of flexible storage expansion functions for processing a massive amount of unstructured log data and executing a considerable number of functions to categorize and analyze the stored unstructured log data is difficult in existing computer environments. Thus, in this study, we use cloud computing technology to realize a cloud-based log data processing system for processing unstructured log data that are difficult to process using the existing computing infrastructure's analysis tools and management system. The proposed system uses the IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) cloud environment to provide a flexible expansion of computing resources and includes the ability to flexibly expand resources such as storage space and memory under conditions such as extended storage or rapid increase in log data. Moreover, to overcome the processing limits of the existing analysis tool when a real-time analysis of the aggregated unstructured log data is required, the proposed system includes a Hadoop-based analysis module for quick and reliable parallel-distributed processing of the massive amount of log data. Furthermore, because the HDFS (Hadoop Distributed File System) stores data by generating copies of the block units of the aggregated log data, the proposed system offers automatic restore functions for the system to continually operate after it recovers from a malfunction. Finally, by establishing a distributed database using the NoSQL-based Mongo DB, the proposed system provides methods of effectively processing unstructured log data. Relational databases such as the MySQL databases have complex schemas that are inappropriate for processing unstructured log data. Further, strict schemas like those of relational databases cannot expand nodes in the case wherein the stored data are distributed to various nodes when the amount of data rapidly increases. NoSQL does not provide the complex computations that relational databases may provide but can easily expand the database through node dispersion when the amount of data increases rapidly; it is a non-relational database with an appropriate structure for processing unstructured data. The data models of the NoSQL are usually classified as Key-Value, column-oriented, and document-oriented types. Of these, the representative document-oriented data model, MongoDB, which has a free schema structure, is used in the proposed system. MongoDB is introduced to the proposed system because it makes it easy to process unstructured log data through a flexible schema structure, facilitates flexible node expansion when the amount of data is rapidly increasing, and provides an Auto-Sharding function that automatically expands storage. The proposed system is composed of a log collector module, a log graph generator module, a MongoDB module, a Hadoop-based analysis module, and a MySQL module. When the log data generated over the entire client business process of each bank are sent to the cloud server, the log collector module collects and classifies data according to the type of log data and distributes it to the MongoDB module and the MySQL module. The log graph generator module generates the results of the log analysis of the MongoDB module, Hadoop-based analysis module, and the MySQL module per analysis time and type of the aggregated log data, and provides them to the user through a web interface. Log data that require a real-time log data analysis are stored in the MySQL module and provided real-time by the log graph generator module. The aggregated log data per unit time are stored in the MongoDB module and plotted in a graph according to the user's various analysis conditions. The aggregated log data in the MongoDB module are parallel-distributed and processed by the Hadoop-based analysis module. A comparative evaluation is carried out against a log data processing system that uses only MySQL for inserting log data and estimating query performance; this evaluation proves the proposed system's superiority. Moreover, an optimal chunk size is confirmed through the log data insert performance evaluation of MongoDB for various chunk sizes.