• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.371-376
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• 2006

서로 갈등적인 관계에 있는 다중 기준 하에서 다양한 국가 전력 시스템을 정량적으로 비교하는 데에는 전력 시스템의 비교 지표가 필요하다. 이러한 비교 지표를 산출하기 위하여 해석적 망형 과정(Analytic Network Process; ANP) 모델 가운데 상호 의존도 수중이 낮은 되먹임 모델 및 상호 의존도가 없는 독립성 모델이 개발되었다. 이러한 ANP 모델은 구성요소로 교점들(nodes)과 상호작용 관계를 표현하는 가지들(arcs)을 포함하고 있다. 의사결정 목표 교점에는 세 가지 유형의 리스크 성향이 포함되었다. 이러한 리스크 성향은 원자력 발전소 같은 위험 설비에 대한 전문가(그룹)의 리스크 성향이며, 더 구체적으로 말하면, 리스크 감수 성향, 리스크 혐오 성향, 리스크 중립 성향 등이다. 여기서 수행된 연구의 주요 목적은 ANP 모델을 구성하는 교점들 가운데 하나인 평가 기준 교점에서의 변화가 전력 시스템의 비교 지표에 미치는 영향을 해석하려는 것이다. 이러한 모델 변이가 비교 지표에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위한 사례 연구에서 각 발전원의 특성을 비교할 평가 기준은 기준 사례와 비교 사례 각각에 대하여 상이하게 선정되었다: 기준 사례의 경우에는 보건성을 대표하는 생명 단축 [yr/TWh], 환경성을 대표하는 지구 온난화 [$g\;CO_{2}-eq./kWh$], 사회성을 대표하는 지속가능 정도[-], 경제성을 대표하는 발전 단가 [\/kWh] 등이 선정되었다; 반면에, 비교 사례의 경우에서는 보건성을 대표하는 사고 사망 [death/GWh]만이 다르고 나머지는 동일하게 선정되었다. 이러한 보건성을 대표하는 생명 단축 또는 사고 사망의 선정은 다음과 같은 비교 지표에 영향을 미친다는 것이 발견되었다: (1) 되먹임 모델에서는 성향 가중치 및 기준 등급에 영향을 준다. (2) 되먹임 모델과 독립성 모델에서는 시스템 등급에 영향을 준다. 향후에는 더욱 더 다양한 상호의존 모델들이 정량화될 필요성이 있다고 본다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.239-248
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• 2022

Risks in construction projects are increasing remarkably due to recent changes in the construction environment. Active risk management is required to recognize risks as opportunities. The purpose of this study is to propose a risk management model of the importance determination method through comparative analysis using Kano model, Timko CSC (Customer Satisfaction Coefficient), and ASC (Average Satisfaction Coefficient). Based on previous studies, the validity of risk management factor determination is reviewed through a questionnaire modified Kano model through interviews with working-level workers using the Delphi technique. Through this, a suitable risk management model is presented by selecting key risk management factors recognized by domestic construction project practitioners. As a result of the study, the Kano model developed to verify risk management of construction projects was evaluated to be effective in verifying the risk management of practitioners. It is expected that the Kano model presented in this study will be actively used to verify the importance of risk management for construction projects.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.1 no.1 s.1
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• pp.53-62
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• 2000

This study proposes FREES(Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Expert System) for analyzing and evaluating risks occurring during the construction process. The feasibility of this system model was tested by virtual scenario. For the development of the model, at first, risk breakdown structure was established based on risks identified in the existing researches, that is quantitative and qualitative. FREES can reflect human cognition process in the risk analysis and evaluation by adopting artificial intelligence fuzzy theory, differentiating the existing quantitative analysis model. The FREES can be applied to all the project phases from planning to operation & maintenance stage.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.77-86
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• 2019

Due to the increasing demand for and complexity of plant construction projects, unpredictable risk factors are on the consequent increase. For that reason, the quantitative risk analysis is being called for, in order for the development of a risk assessment model using risk indicators for the plant construction projects. This study used the claim payout data collected at a global insurance company to reflect the actual financial losses in plant construction projects as dependent variables in the risk assessment model. In terms of independent variables, the geographic information, i. e., landform, and the construction information including test-run, schedule rate, total cost and duration are adopted. In addition, this study suggests that the regression model containing such independent variables that are statistically significant can be applied to as a foundational guideline for the plant construction project risk analysis during the phase of construction and commissioning.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.2 s.6
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• pp.98-108
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• 2001

This research proposes a new risk analysis model in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The risk analysis model, called Construction Risk Analysis System(CRAS), is introduced to help contractors Identify project risks through RBS and through the procedures in risk analysis model. The proposed CRAS model consists of three phases. First step, CRAS model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.107-114
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• 2015

This study focuses on assessing risks which might occur in operation stage of CAES storage cavern and analyzing fire scenarios for the risk that have been assessed with highest risk level. Risks in operation stage were categorized into upper risk group and lower risk group. Components of upper risk group are technical risk, facility risk and natural disaster risk. Lower risk group is composed of 11 sub-risks. 20 experts were chosen to survey questionnaires. ANP model was applied to analyze the relative importance of 11 sub-risks. Results of risk analysis were compared with risk criterion to set risk priorities, and the highest risk was determined to be 'occurrence of the fire within the management opening'. Three fire scenarios were developed for the highest risk level and FDS (Fire dynamics Simulator) was used to analyze these scenarios. No. 3 scenario which air blows from tunnel into outside atmosphere represented that a rate of smoke spread was the fastest among three fire scenarios and a smoke descended most quickly below the limit line of breathing. Thus, No. 3 scenario turned out to be the most unfavorable condition when operating staffs were evacuated from access tunnel.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.25-37
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• 2018

In recent times, private sector allocates the risk between private sector investors in terms of equity transaction and agreement transaction. The additional risk-allocation have made the cash flows of private sector investors fluctuated and some of the PPP projects delayed. Therefore, analyzing the impact of the risk reallocation between private sector investors on their cash flows is critical for encouraging the private sector participants. In this study, a model to evaluate the financial viability of PPP project is developed based on the discounted cash flow analysis. The model can analyze the variability by equity and agreement transaction by identifying key variables of equity transaction, influence factors of agreement transaction, and relationship between the transactions and investor's profitability. It is expected that the private sector can determine the investment decision for PPP projects when the risk reallocation is occurred.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.3 no.4 s.12
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• pp.84-92
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• 2002

Recently, apartment-remodeling project is booming since various reconstruction controls are tightened. However, the project has difficulties because management systems used for apartment-remodeling projects are not available. Identifying and analyzing risk factors that are required for risk management, this paper suggests the risk level through paired comparison performed by AHP method and probability assessment for risk level analysis. It is expected that this research will be utilized to minimize the risk of apartment remodeling project and for basic materials to perform the project and helpful to change newly build-oriented construction into sustainable industries. Hereafter using the risk factor analysis data of this paper for this research project, risk management model is considered to be constructed.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.353-363
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• 2006

In order to evaluate the potential radiological risks for the reuse of the site after decommissioning of nuclear facilities, a mathematical model was developed and materialized into the Microsoft $Excel{\circledR}$ spreadsheets frame. A set of input parameter values was proposed, which is useful in the preliminary risk screening step before the detailed evaluation with the site-specific data. It appeared that the screening levels calculated by the present model was agreed with the derived concentration guideline limits resulted from RESRAD Ver.6.2 and the German dose criteria for releasing a nuclear site from regulatory control.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.65-77
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• 2017

Recently, many Korean major construction companies are suffering from profit loss mainly due to a direct impact from delays in their overseas projects. In general, changes are inevitable in a large-scale project, and most of changes are directly linked to construction delay. Therefore, in the event that an extension of time is necessary due to a change, the contractor must manage the delay based on the condition of the contract to effectively manage risks from delay to the completion date. Thus it is important to understand delay protocol defined in the condition of the contract early in the project, but there have been few or no study to propose methodology or tool to support this effort. This paper presents a review on the project planning and controling practices of major Korean construction companies along with the issues on delay claims and disputes in mega-international projects and suggests a tool to assess delay risk in the condition of the contract. To propose a delay risk assessment model for international construction projects, major standard conditions of contract have been reviewed including FIDIC Red Book(1999), PSSCOC(2014) and SIA 9th Edition(2010). To reflect recent trend of major international owners, standard conditions which they are utilizing for their projects also have been reviewed including those of ARAMCO and QP. The model provides a categories of risks to be reviewed on the condition of the contract along with standard level of the risk which is common in the international standard form of the contracts. This study also performed a case study on an actual international project to confirm the effectiveness of proposed model to identify and respond to a delay risk of a project.