• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.13-24
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• 2022

Construction projects are exposed to various types of risks, which tend to increase. The increasing risks call for contractors' more attentions to forecasting and dealing with these risks. One of the measures to deal with contractors' risks is to forecast or estimate risk cost and include it in the construction budget. Although various researches in relation to risk cost have been observed, little attention has been paid to general contractors' perceptions and current practices in estimating risk cost of construction budget. The objective of the study is to identify and discuss key characteristics and implications based on the survey and analysis of general contractors' perceptions and current practices in estimating risk cost of construction budget. The study shows that there is a gap between the perception and the practice of estimating risk cost, that is, high perception of the importance of risk cost and a relatively low level of practice. It suggests that historical cost data, guidelines and corporate-level standard procedures are required to improve the current practice in addition to sufficient time allocations for risk cost estimating. It discusses that there is a need for using sophisticated estimating techniques including bid data analytics despite a low level of the current adoption, and also proposes that research and development in the field of the sophisticated estimating techniques should be further implemented in order to increase their practicality.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.4 s.8
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• pp.62-68
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• 2001

The purpose of this study was to Identification the Risk of construction method to protect and reduce of construction period. Risk management is one of the key project management process. Numerous tools are available to support the various phases of the risk management process. We present the results of a study designed to identify the tools that are most widely used and those that are associated with successful project management in general, and with effective project risk management in particular. The study is based on a questionnaire administered to a sample of project managers from construction enterprises. The response data was analyzed in order to find which tools are more likely to be used in the those organizations that report better project management performance and in those that value the contribution of risk management processes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.381-384
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• 2005

소프트웨어의 사용영역이 확대되고 개발 규모가 거대화되고 복잡해 짐에 따라 소프트웨어의 품질과 생산성이 중요해지고 있다. 이러한 상황에서 프로젝트의 리스크를 식별하고 그에 따른 파장을 최소화하는 리스크 관리는 소프트웨어 개발 프로세스의 핵심 관리 기술로 부상하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 소프트웨어 개발 관리 프레임 워크 상의 리스크 관리를 연구하여 보다 정형화된 리스크 관리 프로세스를 제안하고, 그에 따른 비즈니스상의 효과를 보여준다. 또한 리스크 요인과 프로젝트 혼란 사이의 통계적 예측 식을 제시한다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.134-142
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• 2008

Recently, international plants construction markets are expending. Specially, oil/gas plants constructions in Middle-East are booming. However, international plants construction projects are high risky. So a risk assessments and managements methodology for international plants construction is needed. In this study, the risk assessment methodology for international plants construction is proposed on the basis of the literature review in the international construction risk assessment methods and the knowledge of experts explored by interview. In addition, case study in Middle East was applied for reviewing these risk assessments and managements methodology for international plants construction.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.475-480
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• 2008

In BTL project, the operation cost covering upcoming 20 years is usually alloted more than construction cost although its plan is made in short time. Therefore, it is a key issue to forecast and to analyze operation risks in the process of making contract in order to successfully finish the BTL project and to ensure the profitability of business. However, only a few domestic professional management companies are capable to carry out funding and facility management. To manage the potential risks efficiently in BLT project, it's essential to prioritize the risk factors by means of considering economical risk level, non-economical risk level and occurrence frequency. Thus, this study suggests risk analysis model for improving efficiency of BTL project from operation company's perspective by means of survey. The suggested risk analysis model is expected to establish a risk management strategy which can improve the efficiency of management affairs in BTL project.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.349-357
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• 2016

Recently, the quantity of risk in construction project has been inflated due to the fact that current construction projects have been large and complicated. Therefore, a study on the risk management methods is necessary that can predict and respond to the need in complicated modern construction projects. In this study, the objective is to analyze the cause of accident in actual construction sites and develop a risk assessment model based on insurance claims records. To reach the goal of this study, first, the frequency and severity of accidents are analyzed the causes of accidents based on the classification; progress rate, season, and total construction costs. Second, a risk assessment model is developed by utilizing a multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable is loss ratio of material damage and three categories; natural hazards, geographic information, and construction method & ability, are used as the independent variables. The model's adjusted R-square is 0.455. The contributions of this study will be used as a material for a quantitative risk analysis model development and review of the construction risk factors for future study.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.77-96
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• 2018

A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.54-64
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• 2018

Currently, as construction businesses develop and diversity, risk became one of the most crucial considerations. Risks are potential and difficult to predict by nature. Also, they are important as they influence delay in construction period and increase of project costs. In construction projects in South Korea and elsewhere, the importance of risk management widely recognized and relevant research is being conducted continuously. The companies use PRM checklist but apply different criteria and items. For efficient risk management in plants, plant PRM checklist is necessary. This study analyzed risk factors that are taken into account in construction projects and proposed a plant PRM checklist based on case analysis and opinions of experts. Also, it rated the frequency and importance of each risk.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.50-50
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• 2017

도시홍수의 잠재적 위험은 홍수경감계획이 발전됨에 따라 감소하지만, 침수피해 가능성은 도시화와 도시 확장에 따라 증가한다. 침수피해 가능성에 대한 사전 파악 및 위험도 분석은 대규모 침수재해 발생 시의 위기관리에도 도움을 준다. 또한, 경제적 피해에 대한 예측은 재해발생 후 복구 및 복원 작업에 필요한 자원 할당에 매우 유용하며, 잠재적 홍수 피해에 대한 예측은 장기적인 홍수경감계획과 재해관리에 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 다차원 침수해석 모형의 결과로 산정 가능한 침수심, 유속 등의 지표들을 복합적으로 고려하여 침수위험도를 산정하고, 침수 발생 위험이 있는 지역의 인문 사회 경제적 지표를 통해 피해 저감 및 복구성을 반영하기 위한 재해 취약인자를 선정하여 해당 지역에 대한 취약도를 산정하였다. 또한, 분석된 위험도와 취약도의 연산으로 통합리스크 분석을 실시하여 침수 발생 시 해당지역에 대한 피해 예상과 지역별 상대평가가 가능하도록 하였다. 위험도와 취약도 및 리스크 분석은 다양한 인자를 동시에 고려하기 위해 여러 개의 기준에 대한 선호도를 결정하거나 최적 대안을 선택하는 다기준의사결정(MCDM)기법을 적용하였으며, MCDM기법 중 보편적으로 많이 이용되는 TOPSIS기법을 적용하였다. 이러한 리스크 분석은 우리나라 전체, 특정 시도, 시군구, 읍면동 간의 침수피해와 관련한 상대적 비교 평가가 가능하며, 대응 및 대비의 관점에서 저감 대책 수립의 우선 지역을 도출하는 데 활용될 수 있을 것이며, 침수피해 발생 후, 리스크가 큰 지역에 대해 우선적으로 복구 조치가 이뤄질 수 있을 것이다. 또한, 한정된 지자체 예산 안에서 도시홍수 피해 경감 대책 수립을 위한 의사결정에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.817-821
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• 2009

The crisis also complicated where deployment aspects the interaction of several factors, as well as, It is hard to knows anytime anywhere to raise. Therefore, in fact, it is impossible to prepare that accurately predict all the crisis. This research organization to maintain the stable activity from crisis that it is presented to crisis management system and Risk-based Decision Making Process.