• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 모형

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An Analysis on the Influence of the Financial Market Fluctuations on the Housing Market before and after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 전후 금융시장 변동이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyeon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.480-488
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    • 2016
  • As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.

3D Digital Design Optimization Process Considering Constructability of Freeform Structure (비정형 구조물의 시공성을 고려한 3차원 디지털 설계 최적화 프로세스)

  • Ryu, Han-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays the widely used media in architecture include visualizations, animations and three-dimensional models. 3D digital methods using active CAM(Computer Aided Manufacturing) and CNC(Computerized Numerical Control) imaging have been developed for accurate shape and 3D measurements in freeform buildings. In contrast to a conventional building using auto CAD system and others, the proposed digital optimization method is based on a combination of 3D numerical data and parametric 3D model for design and construction. The objective of this paper is therefore to present digital optimization process for constructability of freeform building. The method can be useful in the effective implementation of an error-proofing process of freeform building during design and construction phase. 3D digital coordinate data can be used effectively to identify correct size of structural and finish members and installation location of each members in construction field. In addition, architects, engineers and contractors can evaluate design, materials, constructability and identify error-proofing opportunities. Other project participants can also include representatives from all levels of management, departments as well as workers and key subcontractors' personnel, if necessary. The 3D digital optimization process is therefore appropriate to serious variations in freeform shape. For future study, the developed digital optimization method is necessary to be carried out to verify the robustness and accuracy for constructability in construction field.

Analyzing the Relationship between Dynamic Capability of Project-Based Organization and the Competitive Advantage in the E&C Companies (프로젝트 조직의 동적역량과 건설기업 경쟁우위와의 상관관계 분석)

  • Jin, Sangjoon;Oh, Minjeong;Kim, Seungchul
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2019
  • Since the beginning of a new century, many Korean construction and engineering companies are facing a very dynamic and fast changing business environment which includes severe competition, higher risk, economic depression, declining revenues and profits, etc. In order to cope with these challenges, they need to secure special capabilities to actively adapt to the paradigm changes. One of those capabilities could be project management capability which allows us to manage organizational resources dynamically and integratively based on project portfolio management concept. The objective of this study is to investigate how the dynamic capability of a project-based organization to control the resource affects the firm performance and the competitive advantages. Data was collected from the construction and engineering companies in South Korea by using survey questionnaire, and analyzed for empirical tests by using statistical methods such as structural equation modelling and path analysis. The results showed that the organizational resources, if they had the VRIN characteristics, would have positive impacts on creating the dynamic capabilities for project organization. In turn, the dynamic capabilities of a project organization would have impacts on improving business performance and creating competitive advantages. Also, it was found that the organizational resources may have direct impact on business performance and competitive advantages. The academic contribution of this study is that it attempts to integrate resource based view and the dynamic capability theory about creating competitive advantages for project based organization. This study also provided practical implications to the companies in construction industry by showing how to use organizational resources strategically to create competitive advantages.

Bitcoin(Gold)'s Hedge·Safe-Haven·Equity·Taxation (비트코인(금)의 헷지·안전처·공평성·세제 소고)

  • Hwang, Y.
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.13-32
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    • 2018
  • Btcoin has made a big progress through anonymity, decentralized authority, sharing economy, multi-ledger book-keeping, block-technology and the convenient financial vehicle. Bitcoin has the characteristics of mining and supply by decentralized suppliers, limited supply quantity and the partial money-like function as well as gold. The paper studies the hedge and safe-haven of Bitcoin and gold on daily frequency data over the period of July 20, 2010-Dec. 27, 2017 employing Asymmetric Vector GARCH. It finds that gold has the hedge and safe-haven against inflation and capital markets while Bitcoin has the weak hedge and the weak safe-haven. It shows insignificant effects of inflations of US and Korea on the volatilities of Bitcoin and gold. It also suggests the necessity of clearing of vagueness behind the anonymity for fair and transparent trade through the law application in the absence or fault in law (Lucken im Recht). following the spirit of the living constitution (lebendige gutes Recht oder Vorschrift). The relevant institutions are hoped to be given some of obligations such as registration, minimum required capital. report, disclosure, explanation, compliance and governance with autonomous corresponding rights. The study also suggests the reestablishment of the relevant financial law and taxation law. The hedge would not be successfully accomplished without the vigilant cautions of investors.

Assessing the Impacts of EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and Its Policy Implications: An Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (환경산업연관분석을 활용한 탄소국경조정 메커니즘 도입에 따른 국내 산업계 영향 분석과 대응전략)

  • Yeo, Yeongjun;Cho, Hae-in;Jeong, Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.419-449
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to quantify the potential economic burdens of EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms faced by Korean domestic industries. In addition, this study tries to compare and analyzes changes in the burden of each industry resulted from the implementation of the domestic low-carbon policy. Based on the quantitative findings, we intend to suggest policy implications for establishing mid- to long-term strategies in response to climate change risks. Based on the environmentally extended input-output analysis, the total economic burdens of the domestic industries due to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms are estimated to be approximately KRW 8,245.6 billion in 2030. Looking at the impacts by industry, it is found that major industries such as petrochemicals, petroleum refining, transportation equipment, steel, automobiles, and electric/electronic equipment industries are expected to account for 84.3% of the total potential burdens. In addition, in multiple policy scenarios assuming technological developments and energy transition following the implementation of domestic low-carbon policies, the total economic burden of carbon border adjustment is expected to decrease by about 11.7% to 15.0%. The main result of this study suggests that we should not view EU EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism as a trade regulation, but to use it as a momentum for more effective implementation of the low-carbon and energy transition strategies in the global carbon neural era.

Financial Products Recommendation System Using Customer Behavior Information (고객의 투자상품 선호도를 활용한 금융상품 추천시스템 개발)

  • Hyojoong Kim;SeongBeom Kim;Hee-Woong Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.111-128
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    • 2023
  • With the development of artificial intelligence technology, interest in data-based product preference estimation and personalized recommender systems is increasing. However, if the recommendation is not suitable, there is a risk that it may reduce the purchase intention of the customer and even extend to a huge financial loss due to the characteristics of the financial product. Therefore, developing a recommender system that comprehensively reflects customer characteristics and product preferences is very important for business performance creation and response to compliance issues. In the case of financial products, product preference is clearly divided according to individual investment propensity and risk aversion, so it is necessary to provide customized recommendation service by utilizing accumulated customer data. In addition to using these customer behavioral characteristics and transaction history data, we intend to solve the cold-start problem of the recommender system, including customer demographic information, asset information, and stock holding information. Therefore, this study found that the model proposed deep learning-based collaborative filtering by deriving customer latent preferences through characteristic information such as customer investment propensity, transaction history, and financial product information based on customer transaction log records was the best. Based on the customer's financial investment mechanism, this study is meaningful in developing a service that recommends a high-priority group by establishing a recommendation model that derives expected preferences for untraded financial products through financial product transaction data.

Enhancing Technology Learning Capabilities for Catch-up and Post Catch-up Innovations (기술학습역량 강화를 통한 추격 및 탈추격 혁신 촉진)

  • Bae, Zong-Tae;Lee, Jong-Seon;Koo, Bonjin
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 2016
  • Motivation and activities for technological learning, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity are driving forces of economic development in Asian countries. In the early stages of technological development, technological learning and entrepreneurship are efficient ways in which to catch up with advanced countries because firms can accumulate skills and knowledge quickly at relatively low risk. In the later stages of technological development, however, innovation and creativity become more important. This study aims to identify a) the factors (learning capabilities) that influence technological learning performance and b) barriers to enhancing innovation capabilities for the creative economy and organizations. The major part of this study is related to learning capabilities in the post-catch-up era. Based on a literature review and observations from Korean experiences, this study proposes a technological learning model composed of various influencing factors on technological learning. Three hypotheses are derived, and data are collected from Korean machine tool manufacturers. Intense interviews with CEOs and R&D directors are conducted using structured questionnaires. Statistical analysis, such as correlation and ANOVA are then carried out. Furthermore, this study addresses how to enhance innovation capabilities to move forward. Innovation enablers and barriers are identified by case studies and policy analysis. The results of the empirical study identify several levels of firms' learning capabilities and activities such as a) stock of technology, b) potential of technical labor, c) explicit technological efforts, d) readiness to learn, e) top management support, f) a formal technological learning system, g) high learning motivation, h) appropriate technology choice, and i) specific goal setting. These learning capabilities determine firms' learning performance, especially in the early stages of development. Furthermore, it is found that the critical factors for successful technological learning vary along the stages of technology development. Throughout the statistical and policy analyses, this study confirms that technological learning can be understood as an intrinsic principle of the technology development process. Firms perform proactive and creative learning in the late stages, while reactive and imitative learning prevails in the early stages. In addition, this study identifies the driving forces or facilitating factors enhancing innovation performance in the post catch-up era. The results of the preliminary case studies and policy analysis show some facilitating factors such as a) the strategic intent of the CEO and corporate culture, b) leadership and change agents, c) design principles and routines, d) ecosystem and collaboration with partners, and e) intensive R&D investment.

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Debris flow characteristics and sabo dam function in urban steep slopes (도심지 급경사지에서 토석류 범람 특성 및 사방댐 기능)

  • Kim, Yeonjoong;Kim, Taewoo;Kim, Dongkyum;Yoon, Jongsung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.627-636
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    • 2020
  • Debris flow disasters primarily occur in mountainous terrains far from cities. As such, they have been underestimated to cause relatively less damage compared with other natural disasters. However, owing to urbanization, several residential areas and major facilities have been built in mountainous regions, and the frequency of debris flow disasters is steadily increasing owing to the increase in rainfall with environmental and climate changes. Thus, the risk of debris flow is on the rise. However, only a few studies have explored the characteristics of flooding and reduction measures for debris flow in areas designated as steep slopes. In this regard, it is necessary to conduct research on securing independent disaster prevention technology, suitable for the environment in South Korea and reflective of the topographical characteristics thereof, and update and improve disaster prevention information. Accordingly, this study aimed to calculate the amount of debris flow, depending on disaster prevention performance targets for regions designated as steep slopes in South Korea, and develop an independent model to not only evaluate the impact of debris flow but also identify debris barriers that are optimal for mitigating damage. To validate the reliability of the two-dimensional debris flow model developed for the evaluation of debris barriers, the model's performance was compared with that of the hydraulic model. Furthermore, a 2-D debris model was constructed in consideration of the regional characteristics around the steep slopes to analyze the flow characteristics of the debris that directly reaches the damaged area. The flow characteristics of the debris delivered downstream were further analyzed, depending on the specifications (height) and installation locations of the debris barriers employed to reduce the damage. The experimental results showed that the reliability of the developed model is satisfactory; further, this study confirmed significant performance degradation of debris barriers in areas where the barriers were installed at a slope of 20° or more, which is the slope at which debris flows occur.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.