• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로지스틱 분석

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Developing Korean Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Reflecting Climate Change in the Spring of 2000s (2000년대 기후변화를 반영한 봄철 산불발생확률모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Yoon, Sukhee;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for practical forecasting of forest fire danger rate by reflecting the climate change for the time period of 2000yrs. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we developed a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire in 2000yrs. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using times series weather data sets collected from 76 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were used for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Development of the national forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression analysis with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. Nine probability models for individual nine provinces including Jeju Island have been developed. The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models (p<0.05) strongly depends on the effective and relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. The results of verification showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.687 to 0.981, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

Follow-up Management State of Lead Battery Workers in Periodic Health Examination (연 축전지 사업장의 질환 요주의자 및 유소견자의 사후관리 실태 연구)

  • Lee, Gap-Soo;HwangBo, Young;Kim, Yong-Bae;Kim, Hwa-Sung;Ham, Jung-Oh;Lee, Sung-Soo;Ahn, Kyu-Dong;Lee, Byung-Kook;Hur, Jung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.4 s.55
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    • pp.733-746
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    • 1996
  • To evaluate the follow-up management state and related factor of lead battery workers in periodic health examination as part of program of group occupational health service, author studied 293 workers with questionnaire on knowledge of results and follow-up management state and related factors, and compared the responses to their periodic health examination result charts. The results were as follows: 1. 252(86%) workers responsed that they had received the health examination result chart, but only 116(39.6%) workers responsed that they had been educated or explained about the results of health examination, and 11(57.9%) workers among 19 workers with non-occupational disease D, 101(44.3%) workers among 228 workers with non-occupational disease C, and 19(28.4%) workers among 67 workers with occupational disease C knew accurately their health examination results. 2. 78(24.8%) of the workers responsed that they had follow-up management, and contents of follow-up management were follow-up(36.6%), out-patient treatment (31%), change worksite(8.5%), temporary retirement(7.0%) and others(16.9%). 3. Most of the workers responsed that the health examination were necessary, but three-fourths of the workers responsed that the health examination had been superficial or that they didn't know. 4. In this study, follow-up management show significant association with only explanation or education about health examination result chart.

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Association of Liver Dysfunction with Self-Medication History in Korean Healthy Male Adults (건강한 한국 성인남성의 자가약물복용력에 따른 간기능 장애 발생여부 조사)

  • Bae, Jong-Myon;Park, Byung-Joo;Lee, Moo-Song;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Shin, Myung-Hee;Ahn, Yoon-Ok
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.4 s.55
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    • pp.801-814
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    • 1996
  • Background: Korean people could abuse healthy foods as well as medications, which might cause serious side effects. The aim of this study was elucidating liver dysfunction due to the self-medications of hepatotonics, healthy foods and herb medications by nested case-control study. Methods: Study subjects were drawn from male members of Seoul Cohort Study who were recruited by self-administered structured questionnaire survey through mailing to the healthy men between the age of 40 and 59 years through the program of biennial health check-up offered by Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC). The liver dysfunction was defined as the level of serum AST and ALT above 40 IU/L and increased in more than one hunderd per-cent during the 2 year follow-up period. To estimate the odds ratio between self-medication and liver dysfunction after controlling for potential confounders, logistic regression was performed. Results: During the follow-up period, 30 members were identified to fit into case criteria and 2,625 members were selected as control. In logistic regression analyses, history of healthy foods intake, age under 45 years, obesity, and habit of regular exercise were significantly associated with liver dysfunction. The following factors exhibited no statistical significance: intake of hepatotonics, of herb medicine; history of disease in family, of operation, and of radiologic examination; smoking habits and drinking amounts. Conclusion: The significant association between the intake of healthy foods and the liver dysfunction illustrates that chronically optional overuse of healthy foods might bring to hazards to health. As the increasing trend of the size of purchasing healthy foods in Korea, pharmacoepidemiologic studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of the widely used healthy foods should be performed in the near future.

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The Prognostic Factors Affecting the Occurrence of Subsequent Unprovoked Seizure in Patients Who Present with Febrile Seizure after 6 Years of Age (6세 이후 열경련 환자의 비열성발작으로 진행되는 위험 인자)

  • Lee, Hyeon Ju;Kim, Seung Hyo
    • Journal of the Korean Child Neurology Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Few reports have described the prognostic factors affecting the occurrence of subsequent unprovoked seizure in patients who present with febrile seizure (FS) after 6 years of age. We investigated the prognostic factors affecting the development of unprovoked seizures after FS among patients from Jeju Island. Methods: We included patients who developed FS after 6 years of age, who presented to our outpatient clinic between January, 2011 and June, 2017. Clinical data were obtained through chart reviews and phone call interviews. We used logistic regression analysis to analyze the risk factors associated with the occurrence of subsequent unprovoked seizure. Results: Of the 895 patients who presented to our hospital due to their febrile seizure, 83 developed FS after 6 years of age. Among them, 3 patients were prescribed antiepileptic drugs before the onset of the unprovoked seizure, and 4 patients developed an unprovoked seizure before 6 years of age. Thus, overall, 76 patients were included in the study. 51 patients developed first FS before 6 years of age. In the remaining patients, the first FS developed after 6 years of age. The mean observational period since the last outpatient follow-up visit was 3.2 years (median 3.04 years, range: 1.42-4.71 years). Among them, 21% developed an unprovoked seizure. Logistic regression analysis showed that electroencephalographic (EEG) abnormalities served as an independent risk factor for a subsequent unprovoked seizure. Conclusion: EEG is the proper diagnostic tool to predict the risk of a subsequent unprovoked seizure in patients with FS after 6 years of age.

Association of Low Serum Ionized Magnesium Level with Fever-Triggered Seizures in Epileptic Children (소아 뇌전증 환자에서 발열이 동반된 경련을 하는 것과 저 이온화 마그네슘 혈증과의 관련성)

  • Suh, Sunny;Kim, Kyungju;Byeon, Jung Hye;Eun, So-Hee;Eun, Baik-Lin;Kim, Gun-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Child Neurology Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.205-209
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Several studies have shown that magnesium plays an important role in modulating N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)-related seizures by blocking NMDA ion channel receptors. Clinicians usually measure total serum magnesium levels instead of biologically active ionized magnesium levels. We compared the serum ionized magnesium ($iMg^{2+}$) level between epileptic children with and without a history of fever-triggered seizure (FTS). Methods: All epileptic children who visited the outpatient clinic or pediatric emergency department at Korea University Guro Hospital between January 2015 and July 2017 were included. Only epileptic children aged 1-8 years who were newly diagnosed within 2 years were included. Results: There were 12 children with FTS and 16 without FTS. Median serum $iMg^{2+}$ level was 0.93 (0.85-1.14, quartile) mEq/L. Serum $iMg^{2+}$ level was significantly lower in epileptic children with FTS (0.86 mEq/L) compared to those without FTS (1.10 mEq/L) (P=0.005). No difference was noted in clinical variables between the two groups. Lower serum $iMg^{2+}$ level significantly increased the risk of having FTS in epileptic children based on multivariable logistic regression analysis (odds ratio [OR]=0.028). Conclusion: Serum $iMg^{2+}$ level was significantly lower in epileptic children with FTS than in those without FTS. Measurement of biologically active serum $iMg^{2+}$ level could be considered in epileptic children with recurrent FTS. A large-scale prospective study is warranted.

Factors Affecting Self-efficacy of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation(CPR) in Adults (일반 성인들의 심폐소생술 자기효능감에 미치는 영향 요인)

  • Jeon, So Youn
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.124-137
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was factors affecting self-efficacy of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in adults. Therefore, the provide basic data for strategy development to improve the performance rate of bystander CPR. Methods: The data were collected from 164,165 adults of the 2016 Korean Community Health Survey. The survey method was 1:1 interview with households, and the survey period was from August 16, 2016 to October 31, 2016. The survey variables were as follows: self-efficacy of CPR, awareness of CPR, training experience of CPR, demographic characteristics, medical characteristics, health promoting behaviors, and safety practices. Results: The rate of self-efficacy of CPR in adults was 60.6%. Factors affecting self-efficacy of CPR were age, sex, residence, education level, occupation, marital status, any CPR training, CPR training within the last 2 years, CPR training with manikin within the last 2 years, emergency room visit within the last 1 year, physical activity status, drive a bicycle, seat belts on rear seat, seat belts when riding a bus were statistically significant. Conclusions: In conclusion, in order to improve the self-efficacy of CPR in adults, the recent experience rate of CPR education, the practice rate of health promotion behavior, and the practice rate of safety behavior should be improved. The government should expand the provision of education programs to improve the self-efficacy of CPR and actively prepare national-level public advertisements strategies.

Evaluating Cultivation Environment and Rice Productivity under Different Types of Agrivoltaics (유형이 다른 영농형 태양광발전시설 하부 재배 환경 및 벼 생산성 평가)

  • Ban, Ho-Young;Jeong, Jae-Hyeok;Hwang, Woon-Ha;Lee, Hyeon-Seok;Yang, Seo-Yeong;Choi, Myoung-Goo;Lee, Chung-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.258-267
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    • 2020
  • The agrivoltaic can produce electricity and grow crops on fields at the same time. It is necessary to analyze the cultivation environment and evaluate the crop productivity under agrivoltaic because the shading point changes according to structure of agrivoltaic and sun's position. Two types of "fixing" and "tracing" agrivoltaic were installed, and a rice cultivation experiment was conducted in the fields under each agrivoltaic and without shading (control). "Hyunpoombyeo" was transplanted on June 7, 2019, and grown with fertilization of 9.0-4.5-5.7 kg/10a (N-P-K). Fifteen weather stations were installed under each agrivoltaic to measure solar radiation and temperature, and yield and yield-related elements were investigated by points. The accumulated solar radiation during the rice growing season in fixing was no much difference between points, and that in tracing was much difference between points. However, the average solar radiations of two agrivoltaics were similar. The mean temperature, yield, and yield-related elements showed a significant difference for the shading rate, and decreased with increasing the shading rate except ripening grain rate and 1000 grain weight of fixing agrivoltaic. In the relationship between shading rate and yield, fixing and tracing were fitted to a logistic equation and a simple linear equation, respectively, and showed a high correlation (tracing: R2 = 0.62, fixing: R2 = 0.73). The shading rate variation by point for two types was large despite similar yield variation. Thus, it needs to be more closely examined the relationship of the shading rate for a specific period rather than the shading rate during the whole growing season.

Needs and Related Factors for Return-to-Work Support in Cancer Survivors (암 경험자의 직장복귀지원에 대한 요구도 및 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Sungwon;Lee, Kwang-Min;Oh, Gyu-Han;Yeom, Chan-Woo;Jung, Sanghyup;Hahm, Bong-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.126-134
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to investigate the needs for return-to-work support of cancer survivors and related factors in patients with cancer and their caregivers. Methods : 182 patients and 114 caregivers were recruited. Distress Thermometer and Problem List and scale ranging 0~10 measuring the degree of needs for return-to-work support were utilized. The needs for return-to-work support between the patient group and caregiver group (patient's needs evaluated by the caregiver) were compared, and related factors were investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results : 34.6% and 28.1% of patients and caregivers reported return-to-work support of cancer survivors is "very necessary". The degree of needs was 6.60±3.365 points in the patient group and 6.17±3.454 points in the caregiver group, with no significant difference (p=0.282). The needs for return-to-work support evaluated by patients was high when they underwent surgery (OR=2.592, p=0.007), has fertility problems (OR=6.137, p=0.025), has appearance problems (OR=2.081, p=0.041), or has fatigue (OR=2.330, p=0.020). The needs for return-to-work support of patients evaluated by caregivers was high when patients treated with breast cancer (vs respiratory cancer, OR=13.038, p=0.022 ; vs leukemia/lymphoma, OR=4.517, p=0.025 ; vs other cancer, OR=13.102, p=0.019), has work/school problems (OR=4.578, p=0.005), or has depression (OR=3.213, p=0.022). Conclusions : The degree of needs for return-to-work support of cancer survivors was high, and factors related to the needs were different between the two groups. This suggests that return-to-work support of cancer survivors is required, and clinical characteristics, the distress of patients, and differences between patients and their caregivers should be considered in establishing a support plan.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

A Study on Farmer's Syndrome and Its Risk Factors of Vinyl House Worker and Farmer in a Rural Area (일부 농촌지역 비닐하우스 재배자들의 농부증 실태와 관련요인)

  • Lee, In-Bae;Lee, Yeon-Kyeong;Chang, Sung-Sil;Lee, Sok-Goo;Cho, Young-Che;Lee, Dong-Bae;Lee, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.13-33
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    • 1999
  • The aim of this study was to investigate fatigue scores, physical complaints, farmer's syndrome and to find out its risk factors among farmers. The questionnaire survey was conducted to 177 vinyl house workers and 213 farmers who lived in Chongyang gun of Chungnam province from February 24 to March 15, 1998. The obtained main results were followings; 1. The fatigue scores were not significantly different between vinyl house workers and farmers. The fatigue scores were higher in female group, lower education group, shorter sleep hours group(under 8 hours), nonsmoker, nondrinker group than otherwise groups. There was not statistically significant difference between the mean fatigue scores and age, eating habit and body mass index. Duration of farming years in vinyl house and farming area and number of farming workers in farmers family showed a slight relationship with the fatigue score. 2. Health scores were not different between vinyl house workers and farmers. The health states was poorer in female group, lower education group, shorter sleep hours group(under 8 hours), nonsmoker group, and nondrinker group than otherwise groups by health scores. Health scores were not related with age, eating habit and body mass index. 3. The proportion of farmer's syndrome was 49.1% in vinyl house workers and 52.1% in farmers. That was higher in female than in male and the higher proportion was found in the lower education group of vinyl house workers and farmers. The proportion of farmer's syndrome was higher in the group of smoker, alcohol drinkers and over or under weight in vinyl house workers, but did not differ in those of farmers. 4. By multiple logistic regression, sex and sleep hours were risk factors affecting to farmer's syndrome. Odds ration for female group was 2.53 (reference group was male) and that for over 8 sleep hours group was 0.74 (reference group was under 8 sleep hours group). 5. The chief complaints by CMI were "I am difficult to work due to aching the back and the limbs", "I feel prickle pain in the limbs", "I sometimes have a twinge in the limbs", "I am not quite well as having a pain in the limbs", "I feel weaker grasping power than before" in both of vinyl house workers and farmers. Vinyl house workers more frequently pointed out skin darkening, skin disease and hemorrhoids than farmers. 6. According to correspondence analysis, skin disease of vinyl house workers was related to vinyl house farmers and digestive and general symptom was associated with male and endocrinological and muscular symptom was associated with female in vinyl house workers. And it revealed that farmer's syndrome was highly related with female and farmers relatively. By the above results, the fatigue scores, perceive health and farmer's syndrome did not much differ in two groups, but aged female farmers should be considered as female farmers represented higher fatigue score, farmers syndrome and poorer perceive health than male farmers in addition to farmer's syndrome was increased with ageing process. Also feeble but distinguished symptoms which might be due to working environment were observed especially in vinyl house workers and that should be considered and investigated continuously.

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