• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동래부

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Power Consumption Analysis of Routing Protocols using Sensor Network Simulator (센서 네트워크 시뮬레이터를 이용한 라우팅 프로토콜의 전력소모량 분석)

  • Kim, Bang-Hyun;Jung, Yong-Doc;Kim, Tea-Kyu;Kim, Jong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.10a
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    • pp.414-418
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    • 2006
  • 유비쿼터스 컴퓨팅의 인프라가 되는 센서 네트워크는 매우 작은 하드웨어로 이루어지는 많은 수의 센서 노드들로 구성된다. 이 네트워크의 토폴로지와 라우팅 방식은 그 목적에 따라 결정되어야 하며, 하드웨어 및 소프트웨어도 필요한 경우에는 변경되어야 한다. 따라서 그러한 네트워크를 최적으로 설계하기 위해서는 시스템 동작을 확인하고 성능을 예측할 수 있는 센서 네트워크 시뮬레이터가 필요하다. 현존하는 몇몇 센서 네트워크 시뮬레이터들은 특정 하드웨어나 운영체제에 맞추어 개발되었기 때문에, 그러한 특정 시스템들을 위해서만 사용될 수 있다. 그리고 시스템 설계 상의 주요 이슈가 되는 전력 소모량 및 프로그램 실행 시간을 추정하기 위한 어떤 수단도 지원하지 못하고 있다. 이 연구에서는 기존의 센서 네트워크 시뮬레이터들이 갖고 있는 문제점을 해결한 시뮬레이터를 개발하고, 센서 네트워크의 계층적 라우팅 프로토콜인 LEACH, TEEN, APTEEN의 전력소모량을 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 분석하였다. 시뮬레이션의 작업부하인 명령어 트레이스로는 ATmega128L 마이크로컨트롤러용 크로스컴파일러에 의해 생성된 실행 이미지를 사용하였다. 따라서 각각의 라우팅 프로토콜을 실제 센서 보드에서 동작하는 응용 프로그램으로 구현하고, 컴파일된 실행 이미지를 작업부하로 사용하여 시뮬레이션 하였다. 라우팅 프로그램들은 ETRI의 센서 네트워크 운영체제인 Nano-Q+ 1.6.1을 기반으로 구현되었으며, 하드웨어 플랫폼은 옥타컴의 센서 보드인 Nano-24이다. 시뮬레이션 결과에 따르면, 센서 네트워크는 그 사용 목적에 따라 라우팅 프로토콜을 적절히 선택해야 한다는 것을 알 수 있다. 즉, LEACH는 주기적으로 네트워크의 상황을 체크해야 하는 경우에 적합하고, TEEN은 환경의 변화를 수시로 감지해야 하는 경우에 적합하다. 그리고 APTEEN은 전력소모량과 기능 측면을 모두 고려할 때 가장 효과적인 라우팅 프로토콜이라고 할 수 있다.iRNA 상의 의존관계를 분석할 수 있었다.수안보 등 지역에서 나타난다 이러한 이상대 주변에는 대개 온천이 발달되어 있었거나 새로 개발되어 있는 곳이다. 온천에 이용하고 있는 시추공의 자료는 배제하였으나 온천이응으로 직접적으로 영향을 받지 않은 시추공의 자료는 사용하였다 이러한 온천 주변 지역이라 하더라도 실제는 온천의 pumping 으로 인한 대류현상으로 주변 일대의 온도를 올려놓았기 때문에 비교적 높은 지열류량 값을 보인다. 한편 한반도 남동부 일대는 이번 추가된 자료에 의해 새로운 지열류량 분포 변화가 나타났다 강원 북부 오색온천지역 부근에서 높은 지열류량 분포를 보이며 또한 우리나라 대단층 중의 하나인 양산단층과 같은 방향으로 발달한 밀양단층, 모량단층, 동래단층 등 주변부로 NNE-SSW 방향의 지열류량 이상대가 발달한다. 이것으로 볼 때 지열류량은 지질구조와 무관하지 않음을 파악할 수 있다. 특히 이러한 단층대 주변은 지열수의 순환이 깊은 심도까지 가능하므로 이러한 대류현상으로 지표부근까지 높은 지온 전달이 되어 나타나는 것으로 판단된다.의 안정된 방사성표지효율을 보였다. $^{99m}Tc$-transferrin을 이용한 감염영상을 성공적으로 얻을 수 있었으며, $^{67}Ga$-citrate 영상과 비교하여 더 빠른 시간 안에 우수한 영상을 얻을 수 있었다. 그러므로 $^{99m}Tc$-transierrin이 감염 병소의 영상진단에 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.리를 정량화 하였다. 특히 선조체에서의 도파민 유리에 의한 수용체 결합능의 감소는 흡연에 의한 혈중 니코틴의 축적 농도와 양의 상관관계를 보였다(rho=0.9, p=0.04). 결론: $[^{11}C]raclopride$ PET을 이용하여 비흡연 정상인에서 흡연에 의한 도파민 유리를 영상화 및 정량화 하였고, 흡연에 의한 선조체내 도파민 유리는 흡연시 흡수된

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Possibility of Risk Accidents and Response Strategies for Participants in Agencies in Charge of Employment for the Elderly: Focusing on occupational risk accidents and COVID-19 risk accidents (노인일자리 전담기관 참여자의 위험사고 발생가능성과 대응 전략: 업무상 위험사고와 코로나-19 위험사고를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jae-Young;Youn, Ki-Hyok;Lee, Jin-Yeol
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2022
  • This study identified the level of awareness of dangerous accidents by empirically analyzing the possibility of hazardous accidents at work and the possibility of dangerous accidents due to COVID-19 targeting the participating seniors who are active in the Senior Club, an organization dedicated to job placement for the elderly. The purpose of this study is to provide basic data for preparing measures to improve risk accidents that may occur in organizations in charge of job placement for the elderly and to suggest countermeasures to prevent dangerous accidents. For this purpose, data were collected from the elderly participating in 16 senior clubs in Busan, and 425 of the collected 430 were ultimately used. As a result of this study, first, it was found that the elderly who participated in a job-dedicated institution for the elderly generally perceived the possibility of occupational risk accidents and risk factors due to COVID-19 to be low. Second, it was found that there was a statistically significant difference in the probability of occurrence of hazardous accidents at work according to demographic characteristics during the participation period, and the probability of occurrence of dangerous accidents with COVID-19 was found to have statistically significant differences in the classification and age of the participating elderly. Based on the results of this study, the project manager suggested creating a safety accident management record sheet, preparing a risk management manual, and establishing a risk management system reflecting the individual characteristics of the participants.

A Study on the Sociomedical Status of Prostitutes in Busan Area (부산일부지역 특수업태부들의 사회의학적인 조사)

  • Choi, Jin-Hae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 1977
  • The author have performed, from June to July 1976, a sociomedical study on the 314 prostitutes which was engaged in tourism in Dongrae, Busan. The obtained results were as follows: 1. Age distribution was from 20 years old to 34 years old and the highest as 36.6% was 23-25 years old group. Most of the respondents as 95.2% were under 31 years old group. 2. Distribution of respondents by educational level showed that the group below the graduated primary school was 47.2%, middle school 29.3% and high school 57.0% in that order. 5. By the occupation before be ruined, none was 34.5%, waitress at saloon 24.2%, hostess 14.3%. 4. By distribution of birth place, most of the respondents as 64.0% were Gyeongsang Do(37.9%) and Busan City (26.1%). 5. Distribution of respondents by family status showed that only mother was highest as 43.9% and 82.2% of respondents have been supported their family. 6. Monthly incomes of respondents were distributed from 50,000 Won to 250,000 Won, and 50,000-100,000 Won group was the highest as 46.2%. In monthly sundry expenses, 20,000-30,000 Won group was the highest as 27.1%. 7. Monthly supporting expenses to their family were distributed from 10,000 Won to 50,000 Won and the highest as 26.7% was 10,000-20,000 Won group. Savings per month were distributed from 10,000 Won to 60,000 Won and 50,000-60,000 Won group was the highest as 22.3%. 8. Distribution of respondents by status of luxury showed that experiences of drinking was 20.4% and smoking was 55.7%. 9. By motive of falling into the ruin, economical causes was 41.7%. Most of the respondents as 95.0% expected under 3 years in prearranged period of their occupation. 10. By number of monthly entertainment, 5-10 persons as 58.0% was the highest. 11, Distribution of respondents by status of venereal disease and pulmonary tuberculosis showed that positive of gonorrhea was 8.0%, syphilis 1.6%, and pulmonary tuberculosis was 1.6%.

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A Study on the Sahyang and Characteristics of Naturalized Citizens in Early Chosun (조선초기 귀화인(歸化人)의 사향(賜鄕)과 특징)

  • Yim, Seon-bin
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.37
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    • pp.63-91
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    • 2009
  • This study presents an investigation into the Sahyang process and activities of the individuals whose Sahyang(receiving Gwanhyang from the king) was confirmed in the Shilrok documents of early Chosun among naturalized citizens(Hyanghwains). In early Chosun, there were four Chinese(Oh Jin, Lee Min-do, Dang Seong, and Mae Woo) in the Sahyang cases with more of those cases found among Hoigol-in(Seol Jang-soo, an Uighur) and Oioa-guk nationality(Lee Hyeon) from the countries bordering on Western China and two Japanese(Pyeong Sun and Pi Sang-ui). They were naturalized from the reign of King Chungryeol of Goryeo to the first year of King Jeongjong's reign of Chosun. They were diverse to include the great grandfather, grandfather, and father of the individual that received Gwanhyang and himself. There were one case of Sahyang during the reign of King Taejo, four during the reign of King Taejong, one during the reign of King Sejong, and three during the reign of King Sejo. The Gwanhyang they received was wide spread across the nation including Gyerim, Imju, Haeju, Sangju, Milyang, Chungju, Changwon, Dongrae, and Taean. It's very likely that the place of Sahyang was Cheohyang. Many of those who received Gwanhyang were translators and achieved great feats in Chosun's diplomacy with Ming Dynasty and Japan. There were also those who worked in medicine, art of divination, and articles of a criminal code. Seol Jang-su, who passed the state exam of Chosun, was in charge of Jigonggeo, and Lee Min-do and Dang Seong made a contribution to the establishment of Chosun and became big or small meritorious retainers at the founding of Chosun. It's all thanks to those performances that they had the honor of Sahyang of receiving Gwanhyang. Although they were the Gwanhyang with the honor of Sahyang, there is no confirmation of the descendents of the Lee family of Imju, the Pyeong family of Changwon, and the Pi family of Dongrae. While the descendents of the naturalized Chinese still remain in the nation, those of naturalized Japanese ceased to exist, which must be closely related to Chosun's perceptions of other nations those days.

Hydrochemistry and Noble Gas Origin of Various Hot Spring Waters from the Eastern area in South Korea (동해안지역 온천유형별 수리화학적 특성 및 영족기체 기원)

  • Jeong, Chan-Ho;Nagao, Keisuke;Kim, Kyu-Han;Choi, Hun-Kong;Sumino, Hirochika;Park, Ji-Sun;Park, Chung-Hwa;Lee, Jong-Ig;Hur, Soon-Do
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to characterize the hydrogeochemical characteristics of hot spring waters and to interpret the source of noble gases and the geochemical environment of the hot spring waters distributed along the eastern area of the Korean peninsula. For this purpose, We carried out the chemical, stable isotopic and noble gas isotopic analyses for eleven hot spring water and fourteen hot spring gas samples collected from six hot spring sites. The hot spring waters except the Osaek hot spring water show the pH range of 7.0 to 9.1. However, the Osaek $CO_2$-rich hot spring water shows a weak acid of pH 5.7. The temperature of hot spring waters in the study area ranges from $25.7^{\circ}C$ to $68.3^{\circ}C$. Electrical conductivity of hot spring waters varies widely from 202 to $7,130{\mu}S/cm$. High electrical conductivity (av., $3,890{\mu}S/sm$) by high Na and Cl contents of the Haeundae and the Dongrae hot spring waters indicates that the hot spring waters were mixed with seawater in the subsurface thermal system. The type of hot springs in the viewpoint of dissolved components can be grouped into three types: (1) alkaline Na-$HCO_3$ type including sulfur gas of the Osaek, Baekam, Dukgu and Chuksan hot springs, and (2) saline Na-Cl type of the Haeundae and Dongrae hot springs, and (3) weak acid $CO_2$-rich Na-$HCO_3$ type of Osaek hot spring. Tritium ratios of the Haeundae and the Dongrae hot springs indicate different residence time in their aquifers of older water of $0.0{\sim}0.3$ TU and younger water of $5.9{\sim}8.8$ TU. The ${\delta}^{18}O$ and ${\delta}D$ values of hot spring waters indicate that they originate from the meteoric water, and that the values also reflect a latitude effect according to their locations. $^3He/^4He$ ratios of the hot spring waters except Osaek $CO_2$-rich hot spring water range from $0.1{\times}10^{-6}$ to $1.1{\times}10^{-6}$ which are plotted above the mixing line between air and crustal components. It means that the He gas in hot spring waters was originated mainly from atmosphere and crust sources, and partly from mantle sources. The Osaek $CO_2$-rich hot spring water shows $3.3{\times}10^{-6}$ in $^3He/^4He$ ratio that is 2.4 times higher than those of atmosphere. It provides clearly a helium source from the deep mantle. $^{40}Ar/^{36}Ar$ ratios of hot spring water are in the range of an atmosphere source.

Ventilation Corridor Characteristics Analysis and Management Strategy to Improve Urban Thermal Environment - A Case Study of the Busan, South Korea - (도시 열환경 개선을 위한 바람길 특성 분석 및 관리 전략 - 부산광역시를 사례로 -)

  • Moon, Ho-Yeong;Kim, Dong-Pil;Gweon, Young-Dal;Park, Hyun-Bin
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.659-668
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a ventilation corridor management plan to improve the thermal environment for Busan Metropolitan City. To this end, the characteristics of hot and cool spots in Busan were identified by conducting spatial statistical analysis, and thermal image data from Landsat-7 satellites and major ventilation corridors were analyzed through WRF meteorological simulation. The results showed the areas requiring thermal environment improvement among hot spot areas were Busanjin-gu, Dongnae-gu, industrial areas in Yeonje-gu and Sasang-gu, and Busan Port piers in large-scale facilities. The main ventilation corridor was identified as Geumjeongsan Mountain-Baekyangsan Mountain-Gudeoksan Mountain Valley. Based on the results, the ventilation corridor management strategy is suggested as follows. Industrial facilities and the Busan Port area are factors that increase the air temperature and worsen the thermal environment of the surrounding area. Therefore, urban and architectural plans are required to reduce the facility's temperature and consider the ventilation corridor. Areas requiring ventilation corridor management were Mandeok-dong and Sajik-dong, and they should be managed to prevent further damage to the forests. Since large-scale, high-rise apartment complexes in areas adjacent to forests interfere with the flow of cold and fresh air generated by forests, the construction of high-rise apartment complexes near Geumjeongsan Mountain with the new redevelopment of Type 3 general residential area should be avoided. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as basic data for urban planning and environmental planning in response to climate change in Busan Metropolitan City.

Cooling and Thermal Histories of Cretaceous-Paleogene Granites from Different Fault-bounded Blocks, SE Korean Peninsula: Fission-track Thermochronological Evidences (한반도 동남부의 주단층대에 의해 구분된 지질블록별 백악기-고제3기 화강암의 차별적 냉각-지열 이력: 피션트랙 열연대학적 증거)

  • Shin, Seong-Cheon
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.335-365
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    • 2012
  • Fission-track (FT) thermochronological records from SE Korean Cretaceous-Paleogene granitic plutons in different fault-bounded blocks reveal contrasting cooling and later thermal histories. Overall cooling patterns are represented by a monotonous (J-shaped) curve in most plutons except some Cretaceous granites retaining a complicated (N-shaped) path due to post-reset re-cooling. Discriminative cooling rates over different temperature ranges can be explained for individual plutons with respect to relative pluton sizes, differences in initial heat loss depending on country rocks, and the presence and proximity of later igneous activity. Even within a single batholith, cooling times for different isotherms were roughly contemporaneous with respect to positions. Insignificant deviations in cooling ages from two different plutons in succession across the Yangsan fault may suggest their contemporaneity before major horizontal fault movement. The extent of later thermal rise recorded locally along the Yangsan and Dongnae fault zones were reached the Apatite Partial Stability Zone ($70-125^{\circ}C$), but did not exceed $200^{\circ}C$. Thermal alteration from fractured zones in the Yangsan-Ulsan fault junction may suggest a thermal reset above $290^{\circ}C$ resulting a complete reset in FT sphene age (31 Ma), caused by a tectonic subsidence in Early Oligocene. A consistency in FT zircon/apatite ages (24 Ma) may imply a sudden rapid cooling over $200-105^{\circ}C$, plausibly related to the abrupt tectonic uplift of the Pohang-Gampo Block including the fault junction in Late Oligocene. A remarkable trend of lower cooling ages for $300-200-100^{\circ}C$ isotherms (i.e., 19% for FT sphene and K-Ar biotite; 20% for FT zircon; 27% for FT apatite) from the east of the Ulsan fault (Pohang-Gampo Block) comparing to the west of the fault may be attributed to retarded cooling times from the Paleogene granites and also reflected by their partially-reduced apatite ages due to later thermal effects.

Handover Functional Architecture for Next Generation Wireless Networks (차세대 무선 네트워크를 위한 핸드오버 기능 구조 제안)

  • Baek, Joo-Young;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Hyun-Jin;Choi, Yoon-Hee;Kim, Duk-Jin;Kim, Woo-Jae;Suh, Young-Joo;Kang, Suk-Yang;Kim, Kyung-Suk;Shin, Kyung-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.10d
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    • pp.268-273
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    • 2006
  • 차세대 무선 네트워크 (4G)는 새로운 무선 접속 기술의 개발과 함께 많은 연구가 필요한 분야이다. 그 중에서 특히 단말의 끊김없는 이동성을 제공해 주기 위한 핸드오버 기술이 가장 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 차세대 무선 네트워크는 새로운 무선 접속 기술과 함께 기존의 무선랜이나 이동통신망 등과 같이 사용될 것으로 예상되며, 네트워크 계층에서의 이동성 지원을 위하여 Mobile IPv6를 사용할 것으로 예상되는 네트워크이다. 이러한 네트워크에서 끊김없는 이동성을 제공해 주기 위해서는 현재까지 연구된 핸드오버 기능 및 구조에 대한 연구와 함께 보다 다양해진 네트워크 환경과 QoS 등을 고려한 종합적인 핸드오버 기능에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 차세대 무선 네트워크에서 단말의 끊김없는 핸드오버를 제공해 주기 위하여 필요한 기능들을 도출하고, 이들간의 유기적인 연관관계를 정의하여 다양한 네트워크 환경과 사용자의 우선순위, 어플리케이션의 QoS 요구 조건 등을 고려한 종합적인 핸드오버 기능 구조를 제안하고자 한다. 제안하는 핸드오버 구조는 Monitoring, Triggering, Handover의 세 가지 module로 나뉘어져 있으며, 각각은 필요에 따라 sub-module로 다시 세분화된다. 제안하는 핸드오버 구조의 가장 큰 특징은 핸드오버를 유발시킬 수 있는 여러 가지 요소를 종합적으로 고려하며 이들간의 수평적인 비교가 아닌 다단계 비교를 수행하여 보다 정확한 triggering이 가능하도록 한다. 또한 단말의 QoS 요구 사항을 보장하고 네트워크의 혼잡도(congestion) 및 부하 조절 (load balancing)을 위한 기능을 핸드오버 기능에 추가하여 효율적인 네트워크의 자원 사용이 가능하도록 설계하였다.서버로 분산처리하게 함으로써 성능에 대한 신뢰성을 향상 시킬 수 있는 Load Balancing System을 제안한다.할 때 가장 효과적인 라우팅 프로토콜이라고 할 수 있다.iRNA 상의 의존관계를 분석할 수 있었다.수안보 등 지역에서 나타난다 이러한 이상대 주변에는 대개 온천이 발달되어 있었거나 새로 개발되어 있는 곳이다. 온천에 이용하고 있는 시추공의 자료는 배제하였으나 온천이응으로 직접적으로 영향을 받지 않은 시추공의 자료는 사용하였다 이러한 온천 주변 지역이라 하더라도 실제는 온천의 pumping 으로 인한 대류현상으로 주변 일대의 온도를 올려놓았기 때문에 비교적 높은 지열류량 값을 보인다. 한편 한반도 남동부 일대는 이번 추가된 자료에 의해 새로운 지열류량 분포 변화가 나타났다 강원 북부 오색온천지역 부근에서 높은 지열류량 분포를 보이며 또한 우리나라 대단층 중의 하나인 양산단층과 같은 방향으로 발달한 밀양단층, 모량단층, 동래단층 등 주변부로 NNE-SSW 방향의 지열류량 이상대가 발달한다. 이것으로 볼 때 지열류량은 지질구조와 무관하지 않음을 파악할 수 있다. 특히 이러한 단층대 주변은 지열수의 순환이 깊은 심도까지 가능하므로 이러한 대류현상으로 지표부근까지 높은 지온 전달이 되어 나타나는 것으로 판단된다.의 안정된 방사성표지효율을 보였다. $^{99m}Tc$-transferrin을 이용한 감염영상을 성공적으로 얻을 수 있었으며, $^{67}Ga$-citrate 영상과 비교하여 더 빠른 시간 안에 우수한 영상을 얻을 수 있었다. 그러므로 $^{99m}Tc$-transierrin이 감염 병소의 영상진단에 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.리를 정량화 하였다. 특히 선

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The Estimation Model of an Origin-Destination Matrix from Traffic Counts Using a Conjugate Gradient Method (Conjugate Gradient 기법을 이용한 관측교통량 기반 기종점 OD행렬 추정 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Heon-Ju;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.1 s.72
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2004
  • Conventionally the estimation method of the origin-destination Matrix has been developed by implementing the expansion of sampled data obtained from roadside interview and household travel survey. In the survey process, the bigger the sample size is, the higher the level of limitation, due to taking time for an error test for a cost and a time. Estimating the O-D matrix from observed traffic count data has been applied as methods of over-coming this limitation, and a gradient model is known as one of the most popular techniques. However, in case of the gradient model, although it may be capable of minimizing the error between the observed and estimated traffic volumes, a prior O-D matrix structure cannot maintained exactly. That is to say, unwanted changes may be occurred. For this reason, this study adopts a conjugate gradient algorithm to take into account two factors: estimation of the O-D matrix from the conjugate gradient algorithm while reflecting the prior O-D matrix structure maintained. This development of the O-D matrix estimation model is to minimize the error between observed and estimated traffic volumes. This study validates the model using the simple network, and then applies it to a large scale network. There are several findings through the tests. First, as the consequence of consistency, it is apparent that the upper level of this model plays a key role by the internal relationship with lower level. Secondly, as the respect of estimation precision, the estimation error is lied within the tolerance interval. Furthermore, the structure of the estimated O-D matrix has not changed too much, and even still has conserved some attributes.

Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.