• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.71-94
• /
• 2003

The purpose of this dissertation is to build a development density control model and estimate optimum developmental density level for a sustainable urban growth management. To develop the model, system dynamics modeling approach was used. The model was developed to analyze how urban growth, transition, and decay occur depending on the interaction among population, houses, industry structure, land and urban infrastructure such as road, water supply, and sewage treatment facilities. The model was applied to Anyang city to estimate optimum density level. Extensive computer simulation was conducted to find out the maximum numbers of population, industry structure, houses, and cars that can be adequately sustained with the current Anyang city's infrastructure capacity. The computer simulation result shows that the city is overpopulated by some 90,000 people. It nab analyzed that 20％ increase of existing capacity of urban infrastructure is necessary to support current population of Anyang city. To reduce the population to the adequate level whereby the current urban infrastructure can sustain, the current city regulation on floor area ratio needs be strengthened at least 20％ to 35%.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.45 no.2
• /
• pp.11-22
• /
• 2017

To successfully create a low-carbon landscape in order to become a low-carbon city, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of artificial greening's resources on a multi-scale. Additionally, the effects of carbon storage should be quantitatively evaluated. The purpose of this study is to simulate and evaluate the changes in carbon storages of artificial ground trees using system dynamics throughout a long-term period. The process consisted of analyzing the dynamics of the multi-scale carbon cycle by using a casual loop diagram as well as simulating carbon storage changes in the green roof of the Gangnam-gu office building in 2008, 2018, 2028, and 2038. Results of the study are as follows. First, the causal loop diagram representing the relationship between the carbon storage of the artificial ground trees and the urban carbon cycle demonstrates that the carbon storage of the trees possess mutual cross-scale dynamics. Second, the main variables for the simulation model collected 'Biomass,' 'Carbon storage,' 'Dead organic matter,' and 'Carbon absorption,'and validated a high coefficient of determination, the value being ($R^2$=0.725, p<0.05). Third, as a result of the simulation model, we found that the variation in ranking of tree species was changing over time. This study also suggested the specific species of tree-such as Acer palmatum var. amoenum, Pinus densiflora, and Betula platyphylla-are used to improve the carbon storage in the green roof of the Gangnam-gu office building. This study can help contribute to developing quantitative and scientific criteria when designing, managing, and developing programs on low-carbon landscapes.

• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
• /
• 2006.04a
• /
• pp.123-149
• /
• 2006

본 연구는 방사성폐기물 처분시설(radioactive waste repository)의 입지를 가정하여, 처분시설이 경상북도 경주시에 발생시키는 경제적, 사회적 효과를 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 정부는 처분장 유치의 유인책(incentives)으로서 경주 지역주민들을 위하여 다양한 정책적 수단을 마련하였다. 처분시설 입지에 따른 특별지원금 3,000 억원 지원, 수거물 반입 수수료 지원(년당 50-100억원), 한국수력원자력(주) 본사이전, 양성자가속기 사업 추진 등이 그것이다. 이들 지원사업들이 가져오는 변화를 시스템 다이내믹스(System Dynamics) 기법을 적용하여 지역사회의 인구, 산업, 토지, SOC, 지방재정 등이 어떻게 변화하는지 추적해 봄으로써 도시체제의 동태성(urban system dynamics)을 이해하고 처분장 시설이 지역에 입지했을때, 미래에 발생 가능한 문제점이 없는지 밝혀내고자한다. 이를 위하여 시뮬레이션 모델링에 입지 지역의 특성과 현황을 반영하여 처분장입지에 따른 지역의 동태적인 변화과정과 경향을 추정해 보고, 현재 예정되어 있는 지원사업이 충분한지, 이외에 다른 정책적 지원이 필요한지를 알아본다. 본 연구의 의미는 이처럼 경주지역 주민들이 처분장의 지역입지를 만족스럽게 행각하고 소외감 없이 생활을 영위할 수 있도록 정책적 지원 프로그램을 작성하는데 기초가 되는 연구라는 점에 있다고 하겠다.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.27-43
• /
• 2008

This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.