• Title/Summary/Keyword: 델파이법

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Prediction for Future Housing using Delphi Technique (델파이 기법을 활용한 미래주거예측)

  • An, Se-Yun;Ju, Hannah;Kim, So-Yeon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.209-222
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to predict the future changes of housing through the Delphi technique. The targets to predict were set by housing type, housing space, housing demand, and architectural technology. The results were as follows: ① The influences of social and value perspectives on the change of housing type, space, and demand would be high, on the other hands, the influence of political perspective would be low. ② In terms of housing type, the increase in demand for downsizing housing for high-rise buildings and the possibility of realizing remote medical support services and homecare using big data are highly predicted. That is, ③ it is anticipated that IoTs will have a significant influences on future housing changes, and ④ enactment of co-housing and related laws by the sharing economy, services for maintenance through the supply of high-rise and high-density homes, housing support for residents, and advanced lease markets by developed architectural technology are expected as anticipated forms of future housing.

A study on the weighting of influence factors for tunnel collapse risk analysis (터널 붕괴 위험도 분석을 위한 영향인자 가중치 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong-Heum Kim
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.315-326
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the Delphi method and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) were used to evaluate tunnel collapse risk from a comprehensive and multifaceted perspective. Influence factors were established through literature reviews, previous studies, and brainstorming sessions with expert groups, resulting in the construction of five main classification systems. A panel of 21 experts was formed, and three rounds of Delphi surveys were conducted to prevent errors and biases in the expert judgment process, thereby enhancing reliability. Ultimately, 14 influence factors were identified through CVR (content validity ratio) and COV (coefficient of variation) analyses of the experts' responses. Subsequently, the AHP method was applied to assess the relative importance of each influence factor and calculate the final composite weights. The timing of support and reinforcement had the highest priority, followed by groundwater inflow, joint conditions, support pattern levels, and auxiliary methods. These findings help identify the key factors affecting tunnel collapse risk and provide a foundation for developing strategies to improve tunnel safety.

An Empirical Study of Selection of Cruise Terminals Location by Using HFP (계층퍼지분석법(HFP)을 이용한 크루즈 터미널 입지 선정에 관한 연구)

  • CHOI DO-SUEK;LEE SANG-HWA
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4 s.65
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2005
  • This study aims at selecting optimum locations for cruise terminal This study uses the HFP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) based on the fuzzy theory, which is known to be effective in evaluating a complicated system whose evaluation attribut are vague or overlapping with one another such as the elements in selecting cruise terminal location and in treating both qualitative and quantitative data.

Establishing research priorities of FDG PET in oncology indications using Delphi technique (델파이법을 활용한 종양분야 FDG PET의 경제성 평가 연구 우선순위 선정)

  • Do Young Kyung;Lee Jin Yong;Kim Young-Ik;Kwon Young Hoon;Lee Sang-Il;Kim Chang-Yup
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.45-65
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    • 2004
  • The rapid increase in PET devices and its utilization in Korea necessitates relevant health insurance policies based on scientific evidence, including economic evaluation of PET in clinical conditions. However, there is very little amount of evidence regarding PET, and the first step would be to establish research priorities to give a momentum for research and assure efficient use of research capacities. To this end, we conducted a two-round Delphi study, which produced stable consensus on about top 10 oncology indications for research, which included lymphoma staging, colorectal cancer recurrence/restaging, lung cancer staging, and other conditions. The results were largely consistent with current U.S. Medicare reimbursement indications and are expected to lead to relevant researches and evidence-based health policies on PET reimbursement and regulation.

A Study on the Selecting Determine Factors of Optical Filter for Recognition Financial Account Using Delphi Method (델파이법을 이용한 금융통장 정보 인식용 광학필터 결정인자 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Hyeung Keun;Lee, Kang Won
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we have researched semiconductor optical filters to solve the problem of the high failure rate that are recognize bad of financial account, jam of financial account and the ATM service interruption due to failure of accurate location information among the operation of the ATM (automatic teller machine) systems. A semiconductor optical filters that have high resolution and less diffuse, high transmittance are able to detect the information of financial account surface accurately. Therefore, it is a stable filter that is able to minimize the incidence of disability. In this paper, we drew the determinants by element for implement an excellent semiconductor optical filters. Based on this, we had to be able to implement the semiconductor optical filter that is able to be mounted on the actual ATM system through future studies.

The Development of Universal Fashion Design for Disabled Women (장애여성을 위한 유니버설 패션 디자인 개발)

  • Moon, Sun-Jeong;Chung, Sham-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.58 no.9
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    • pp.142-150
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    • 2008
  • A universal design means a progressive and challenging design in the 21st century which can satisfy the demands from not only aged people and disabled people but also numerous members of our society. This research aims to apply a universal design commonly used in architecture (environment) and products to costumes, so as to convert the design into a universal fashion which can meet the aesthetic values, desires, and functionality of aged people and disabled women. After applying the said five universal fashion principles and design factors, a total of 20 pieces of universal fashion prototype products are produced through functional designs and designs utilizing knit materials and health & functionality materials. In addition, a direction to develop universal fashion products is suggested for costume manufacturers, for the purpose of facilitating the practical use of a universal fashion. The present author expects that human-centered universal fashion costumes shall propose the orientation of the interest in future new designs, beyond the scope of a jump in the quality of simple functional costumes.

Estimating the Disability Weight of Major Cancers in Korea Using Delphi Method (델파이법을 활용한 우리 나라 주요 암질환의 장애정도 가중치 추정)

  • Kwon, Young-Dae;Kim, Byoung-Yik;Yoon, Seok-Jun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.409-414
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    • 2000
  • Objectives : To estimate the weighting for the disability caused by major cancers in Korea using the Delphi method. Methods : We selected 19 panelists to estimate the disability weighting of major cancers in Korea by using the Delphi method. To select the relevant kinds of cancers, we used National Death Certificate Data produced by the National Statistical Office in 1996. Then the stability of each delphi round was calculated by using the coefficient of variance. Results : The disability weight of major cancers for males was pancreas cancer(0.36), liver cancer(0.35), esophageal cancer(0.30), stomach cancer(0.27), lung cancer(0.26), and colorectal cancer(0.30). The disability weight of major cancers fer females was pancreas cancer(0.36), liver cancer(0.34), esophageal cancer(0.29), stomach cancer(0.28), lung cancer(0.26), and colorecial cancer(0.28). Conclusion : The results of this study will provide baseline data useful for the measurement of the burden of disease caused by cancers in Korea.

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Implications fer Assessing Framework of Next Generation Enterprise Portals' Functions: Perspective of Organizational Knowledge Creation (차세대 Enterprise Portal 기능의 평가 프레임워크 개발에 관한 연구: 지식창출 관점)

  • Park, Ji-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to imply for the assessing framework of next generation Enterprise Portals'(EPs) function through the lens of organizational knowledge creation. As the emerging "suite" products such as Smart Enterprise Suite (SES) converges EPs with collaboration and content management, EPs are no longer just a gateway to information and content. EPs are emerging as the center of convergence for many complementary technologies. Considering that this trend is common and knowledge creation is one of key goals of EPs, it is important to assess EPs' function through the knowledge creation process. This paper reviews literatures to set initial assessing elements of EPs' function, then adopts Delphi Technique to prove and categorize the elements according to the knowledge creation process. The samples are consisted of 7 professional knowledge management consultants at Entrue Consulting Partners, LG CNS. This paper may be significant in providing a new vision to the evaluation of EPs by combining a theoretical model with a practical situation.

The Valuation of Army Tactical Command Information System(ATCIS) (지상전술 C4I체계(ATCIS) 가치평가 실증분석)

  • Kim, Chong-Hae;Jang, Won-Joon;Lee, Choon-Joo;Choi, Don-Oh
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents the overall valuation framework of the Army Tactical Command Information System(ATCIS) with its empirical data which is developed by the ROK Army in 2005 with its own R&D efforts over the past 10 years. The valuation with the appropriate methods is conducted through the full and relentless support of ROK Army HQs, defense agencies, and related firms. And the results include both qualitative and quantitative values of the ATCIS in perspectives of economic, technical, and defense strength effects. As a result, the development of ATCIS is valued over 1.7291 trillion Won which is over 6.55 times benefit and cost ratio comparing with other country's similar system. The worth of this paper includes the actual framework and methods to apply the valuation of other weapon systems and its preliminary research, defense offset valuation, performance evaluation and others.

Evaluation Model Building and Application for Suitable Locations Reflecting Recreation Forest Types (자연휴양림 유형별 적정입지선정 평가모형 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sik;Hwang, Hee-Yun;Ban, Yong-Un
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.1
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2010
  • This study has intended to develop an evaluation model to select suitable locations of recreation forests in accordance with their types, and to apply the models to the feasibility study of selecting suitable recreation forest locations of candidate sites. To reach this goal, this study employed a Delphi expert survey method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the whole process of model building. And the followings are what this study has found during model building and application process. First, the assessment criteria for classifying recreation forests and selecting suitable locations were initially identified through justification process with two rounds of expert review, after broken down into 2 categories, and then further divided into 6 items and 12 indicators accompanying with hierarchical structure. Second, in the third phase of Delphi expert survey, the relative weights of the assessment criteria were derived by employing AHP. Through overlaying two evaluation categories including resource and usability, 4 types of recreation forest were presented. In the forth phase of the Delphi survey, this study has developed an evaluation model to select suitable locations of recreation forests in accordance with their types using relative weights of the selected indicators through. This study has applied the models to the feasibility study of selecting suitable recreation forest locations of candidate sites, and found that the usability of recreation forest was severely affected by the distance from the capital region, that the closer the locations of natural recreation forests from the capital region, the more advantageous. The developed model can be used to designate recreation forests in accordance with their types.