• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.141-154
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• 2006

Recently, the decrease of the number of a high-school graduate influences the number of limit matriculation. Based on the resident registration population, we forecast for the number of a high-school graduate until 2022 year.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.523-534
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the numbers of students in a capital areas until 2027 year by using the moving average methods for estimating the number of student at the elementary, meddle and high-school. It is analyzed the third student number at the high schools and the entrance quota of colleges and universities around capital areas until 2027. The result of this paper is that there are no problems to keep the current entrance quota of colleges and universities around capital areas until 2027.

• 대학교육
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• s.35
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• pp.125-129
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• 1988

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.311-320
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• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to suggest the methods of forecasting the numbers of students. The generalized weighted proportion estimation models are suggested and used for forecasting the numbers of student until 2029. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation show that the suggested method is powerful for the forecasting. In conclusion, the numbers of the third grade high-school students will be less than the numbers of college admission quota from 2019.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1175-1188
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• 2015

The Ministry of Education of Korea announced the university structural reform plans which reduces 160,000 of the university entrance quota during 10 years from January 2014. Because the reduction plans of entrance quota influence regional economy as well as students and universities, naive evidence of the Ministry of Education of Korea is disappointed. In this research, we forecast the total number of the university entrance exam candidate by 2032 including not only third grade high school students but also repeaters according to the 16 metropolises and provinces in Korea. We also forecast the regional university recruiting rate using the forecasts of the total number of the university entrance exam candidates. However, we can not make more realistic results because we can not apply the inter-regional movement of students to the forecast. In order to handle this limitation, we first estimated the rank of the whole 7,277 departments of all universities in Korea and assigned the quotas according to the estimated rank for each departments and then we calculated the local university recruiting rate. The estimated the university recruiting rates of 16 metropolises and provinces can provide more noticeable results of characteristics and problems than that of nationwide.

• Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.9-17
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• 2010

Purpose: We have studied the problems associated with increased number of ophthalmic optics students and its effects on the supply and demand of optician. Methods: We collected data from Education Statistics, a white paper of Minister for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs, academyinfo web site and University (College) web site. Results: We forecasted an estimate for supply and demand of optician using the entrance number of ophthalmic optics. Conclusions: The numbers of produced optician are in excessive supply. The excessive supply of optician can contribute towards worsening working conditions and lower job satisfaction of an optician. Therefore this can result infrequent turn over of jobs within the same field and migration into the different field of areas. To solve these problems, we will need to act with the manpower policy of government by gathering the voices of the related optician agencies. Then expansion of job domain, improvement of quality level, the improvement of the working conditions for optician can be accomplished by the unification of university system and reduction of entrance numbers for department of ophthalmic optics.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.120-128
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• 2024

From February to now 2024, there continues to be controversy over the expansion of admission number to medical school. Some of the controversy arises from a mix of present and future time points. In the present time point, the controversy over whether physicians are some shortages or not has various aspects. Some aspects are presented as evidence of the physician shortage and others as non-shortage. Also, the presenting evidence of shortage is being disputed, and so is the evidence of the contrary. This controversy over whether there is a shortage or not in the present time point makes it difficult to reach a consensus. In 10 years, the shortage of doctors will increase due to the rapid increase in the elderly population, so the admission number of medical schools will need to be increased. However, the increase must be such that there is minimal deterioration in the quality of medical education. More admission numbers should be allocated to medical schools with a high quality of medical education. This study suggests that large-scale medical schools increase the admission number by 20%-30%, and small-scale medical schools increase the admission number by 40%-50%, if so, the total increasing number is 760 to 1,066. If the 2,000-person increase is enforced, the quality of medical education must be carefully evaluated and the results should be reflected in adjusting the admission number of medical schools. In 20 years later, the admission number of medical schools will have to be reduced. This is because the physician supply is changing to a linear function and the physician demand (medical care demand) is changing to a quadratic function. Even if the current number is maintained, there will be an excess of doctors from 2048, so the medical school admission number must be reduced and its size will be reduced to about 2,000, a 30% reduction from the current number. Because the same reduction rate for all medical schools will result in many small-scale medical schools, the M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy should be considered with 40 medical schools and 12 Korean medical schools. In Korea, the main contributor to estimating physician demand is the change in population structure. Due to the rapid decrease in the total fertility rate, future population projections are uncertain. The recent rapid increase in healthcare utilization should be reexamined in the forecasting of physician demand. Since the various factors that affect the estimate of doctor supply and demand are unclear, the estimate of physician supply and demand must be continuously conducted every five years, and the Health Care Workforce Committee must be established and operated. The effects of increasing the admission number of medical schools should be evaluated and adjusted annually.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.159-169
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• 2009

The goal of this paper is to get the result of the forecasting for the numbers of a high-school graduate by a moving average method and the statistical analysis for numbers of the limit of matriculation on the most colleges and universities in Daegu city and Gyoungbook until 2026 year. Recently, the decrease of the number of a high-school graduate have influences on the number of limit matriculation. The future of most colleges and universities in Daegu city and Gyoungbook is hanging in the balance after the crisis of the serious decrease of the number of a high-school graduate until 2026 year.

• 대학교육
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• s.147
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• pp.77-83
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• 2007

강원대학교와 삼척대학교의 통합은 강원도에 산재한 5개 대학 간에 논의된 연.통합의 연장선이며, 1도 1 국립대학 추진이라는 다자간의 틀 속에서 추진된 양자 간의 통합이라는 것이 타 대학의 통합 사례와 다른 점이다. 통합으로 인해 입학정원과 대폭적인 기구 감축을 통한 운영의 효율성 강화, 교수의 연구 경쟁력 향상, 학생 충원 및 신입생 수준 향상, 캠퍼스별 특성화, 대학의 혁신역량 제고 등의 성과가 있었다. 그러나 통합 이전 양 대학이 가지고 있던 이질적인 대학 문화의 일체화, 캠퍼스 간의 거리로 인한 접근성의 한계와 업무적 중복성, 정부차원의 행.재정적 지원의 지속 여부는 향후 통합의 성패를 가름하는 매우 중요한 과제로 남아 있다.

• 대학교육
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• s.147
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• pp.56-60
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• 2007

부산대학교의 통합은 대학구조개혁과 캠퍼스별 특성화를 동시에 이룩한 국립대 구조개혁의 표본적 성공 사례라 할 수 있다. 통합으로 인해 입학정원 감축, 단과대학 및 산업대학원 통폐합, 유사·중복학과 통폐합, 행정조직 감축, 신입생 충원율 개선 등의 성과가 있었으며, 캠퍼스 특화 전략에 따라 부산캠퍼스는 연구중심대학으로, 양산캠퍼스는 세계적 의료 허브로, 밀양캠퍼스는 나노·바이오 분야로 특화하였다. 향후 부산대학교는 지속적 개혁을 통하여 혁신을 도모함으로써 단발성, 일회성이 아닌 일상적, 상시적 혁신을 추진하여 혁신의 시스템화를 정착시키고자 한다. 그리고 진정한 혁신을 위해 교육 분야 혁신, 산학연구 혁신, 행정 혁신에 더욱 박차를 가할 것이다.